NEW YORK, September 7 (Reuters) – COMEX copper closed lower on Friday as the dollar regained its uptrend against a basket of currencies, after the US’s stronger-than-expected employment data consolidated the Fed’s third rate hike this September. It is expected that concerns about the escalation of the Sino-US trade war will also exert pressure on copper prices.

The most active COMEX December copper fell 1.40 cents, and the settlement price was 2.6225 US dollars per pound.

September copper futures contract fell 1.50 cents, or 0.57%, to $2.6035 a pound.

Copper prices have weakened due to escalating trade tensions and more tariff threats that could hurt copper demand and economic growth.

US President Trump said he is ready to impose import tariffs on another $267 billion worth of Chinese goods, and is currently paying attention to whether he is taxing $200 billion in Chinese goods.

In the past 13 weeks, copper prices have fallen for 11 weeks and have fallen by about 21% since June.

ANZ’s commodities strategist Daniel Hynes said that although the escalation of trade conflicts triggered market concerns about China’s economic growth, China’s imports and inventory data showed little impact so far.

China’s copper demand accounts for about half of the global copper demand.

Hynes cautioned that China’s environmental protection initiatives and supply-side reforms have also affected China’s copper production levels, making it more dependent on imports.

He said: “Domestic production is affected, and China’s copper imports are expected to remain strong. In fact, copper imports have increased by 16% since the beginning of the year.”

“Inventories have also fallen. The basic metal stocks of the exchange have been reduced by 10-20% in the three months since the trade war escalated.”

Copper is denominated in US dollars, and when the dollar strengthens, copper prices are more expensive than investors holding non-US dollar currencies. US employment growth accelerated in August, and wage growth hit its biggest annual growth in nine years, which raised the market’s view that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates, while pushing up the dollar.

According to a Reuters report on August 31 in London, a survey conducted by Reuters recently showed that OPEC oil production in August rose to a high this year due to the rebound in oil production in Libya and the record high oil exports in southern Iraq.

Reuters survey on Friday found that OPEC’s 15 member countries had an average daily production of 32.79 million barrels of oil in August, an increase of 220,000 barrels per day from the revised daily output in July, the highest level this year.

First, the price trend

According to the sample price monitored by the business community, the toluene market trend rose this week. The comprehensive price of toluene this week rose from 6,451 yuan / ton on August 20 to 6,151 yuan / ton on August 24, up 60 yuan / ton, or 0.94%. Overall, the toluene market rose this week, up 26.12% year-on-year.

Second, the trend analysis

(1) Products:

The comprehensive price of toluene rose this week. From the manufacturer’s point of view, the average price of the factory price of toluene manufacturers this week fell first and then rose. The quotation fell from 6410 yuan/ton on August 20 to 6403 yuan/ton on August 22, down 7 yuan/ton, down 0.1%; then rose to 6467 yuan/ton on August 24, and rose. 63 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.99%. From the dealer’s point of view, the average price of toluene distribution this week rose first and then fell. The price rose from 6,547 yuan/ton on August 20 to 6,650 yuan/ton on August 23, up by 103 yuan/ton, or 1.57%; then fell to 6612 yuan/ton on August 24, and fell. 38 yuan / ton, down 0.56%. Overall, the overall price of toluene rose this week, with little increase.

(2) Industry chain:

Upstream market conditions: This week’s naphtha offer rose. The quotation rose from 6625 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6,758 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 133 yuan/ton, or 2.01%, up 47.35% year-on-year. The rise in upstream prices has a negative impact on toluene.

Downstream market conditions: TDI distribution prices fell this week. The quotation fell from 31,300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 30,700 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 600 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.92%, down 24.97% year-on-year. The ex-factory price of PX was temporarily stabilized this week, and the price was 8300 yuan/ton, up 25.76% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market fell, downstream customers are not motivated to purchase toluene, and toluene demand is reduced.

Third, the market outlook

After the adjustment in July, the market of various industries will be further expanded, and the demand for toluene in various refineries and refineries will increase. The domestic manufacturers’ pricing refers to the external price, and the external disk price shows an upward trend. Toluene analysts of the business community believe that the price of toluene will increase steadily in late August, and the subsequent increase will be weak. The mainstream transaction price of toluene will remain around 6,600 yuan/ton.

This week, the price of magnesium ingots failed to continue the upswing in the previous period, and the price dropped slightly. According to the data of the business community, on August 17, the domestic standard magnesium ingot (99.90) was quoted at 17614.29 yuan/ton, compared with the early (08.13) magnesium. The price of ingots was RMB 17,814.29/ton, a decrease of 1.12%. It is reported that this week, the market of magnesium market fell, mainly due to the lack of downstream demand, buying is not good, as of the 17th, the willingness of all major manufacturers to weaken, the external offer has been lowered, the range of reduction is 200-400 yuan / Tons of tons. At present, the price of the Fugu area in Shaanxi is 17300-17600 yuan / ton, the price in Ningxia is 17400-17600 yuan / ton, the price in Shanxi Wenxi area is 17600-17800 yuan / ton, and the price in Taiyuan is 17500-17700 yuan / ton.

Throughout the year, the operation of the magnesium market in January-May was relatively stable, mainly at the low level of 15000-15500 yuan/ton. After mid-May, the magnesium price bottomed out. Since June, there have been two bands rising. According to business community data, on August 17, domestic magnesium ingots (99.90) were quoted at 17614.29 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the year (1.1) magnesium ingots were quoted at 15,437.50 yuan / ton, an increase of 14.10%.

Downstream wait and see, market is cold

The second wave of rising annual prices opened in early August, the rapid rise, based on the suspension of production and maintenance of some manufacturers, coupled, high temperature weather production is limited, the factory spot supply is tight, magnesium ingot manufacturers are willing to price, one day a price, some manufacturers less Hanging high bids, and even breaking through the peak price of magnesium ingots last year, downstream companies in such a hot market, more pressure, began to wait and see, market trading weakened, market players gradually calm.

This week, the price of magnesium ingots began to loosen down. On the one hand, it was strengthened based on the willingness of traders to ship, and low-priced shipments occurred. On the other hand, downstream enterprises mainly waited for purchases, especially after the 15th, market inquiry delivery. The trend of cooling is significant. Market participants have slightly changed their views on the market outlook of magnesium ingots. The willingness of magnesium ingot manufacturers to start to price has also begun to weaken, and the price of magnesium ingots has dropped slightly.

The fundamentals have not changed.

At present, the production rate is not high in the main producing areas, and the inventory has not changed significantly. In view of the high price of magnesium ingots, it is expected that the price of magnesium ingots will be limited in the later period, and the probability of downturn will increase.

First, the price trend:

According to data from the business community, the price of ortho-benzene increased sharply this week. At the end of this week, the price of o-xylene on the 10th of August was 7562.50 yuan / ton, compared with the price of o-xylene (OX) on the previous trading day on August 3, the price of 7062.50 yuan / ton rose 500 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.08%, an increase of 26.99% .

Second, the market analysis:

Product:

This week, the inventory of phthalene in the East China Port remained at a low level. As of August 10, the inventory of Huadong Port was about 30,000 tons. The price of ortho-benzene outside the plate continued to rise. On August 9, the market for the o-xylene market in Europe was quoted at US$970.00/ton FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp. On August 3, the price of phthalate external disk in China rose by US$52/ton. The price of phthalate external disk rose sharply, the cost of imported ortho-benzene increased, the price of imported ortho-benzene increased, and the price of benzene in the port area increased significantly. The price of benzene in the port soared, prompting the domestic price of o-xylene to rise, and the growth of benzene was full.

Policies and regulations:

The Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council issued an announcement on August 3rd to impose tariffs of 25%, 20%, 10%, and 5% on 5,207 tax items originating in the United States. Among the goods subject to tariffs, o-xylene will be subject to a 25% tariff. In 2017, China imported 356,000 tons of o-xylene. The dependence on imports of benzene was heavily dependent on imports. The increase in US import tariffs is bound to intensify the upward trend of domestic benzene. However, since China imports limited benzene from the United States and can find alternatives, the promotion of benzene growth is generally not affected.

Industry chain:

Mixed xylene prices rose last week, and the cost of o-xylene increased. On August 9th, the price of mixed xylene was 6,661.82 yuan/ton, which was priced at 6,539.23 yuan/ton from last weekend (August 3). The price rose by 1.87%. The price of mixed xylenes has risen, and the cost of o-xylene has risen, which has contributed to the rise in the market for ortho-benzene.

Third, the market outlook:

Baijiaxin, an analyst with the o-xylene data of the business community, believes that the price of the phthalate external disk has risen sharply, the price of the neighboring benzene in the port has risen, and the low benzene stock in the port has promoted the rise of the domestic benzene market. The price of mixed xylene in domestic benzene raw materials has risen, and the cost of o-benzene is still high, which is good for the benzene market. The port’s benzene stocks are at a low level, and the market’s soaring voice is highlighted. Moreover, the Sino-US trade war has intensified. China has imposed a 25% tariff on its neighboring benzene imported from the United States, further increasing the cost of importing ortho-benzene. The price of phthalonitrile external disk is unlikely to decline in the short term, and the strong neighboring benzene factor is strong. O-benzene is highly motivated, and it is expected that the rise in phthalate in the market may increase.