In July, the domestic phenol market first suppressed and then rose, with an overall downward trend. According to the monitoring data of business agency, on July 1, 2020, the average price of phenol in China was 7150 yuan / ton, and on July 31, it was 5800 yuan / ton, with the market down by 18.88%. In the middle of July, it dropped to the lowest point, and the average offer in the national market was 5650 yuan / ton. Among them, the mainstream East China market declined from 6850 yuan / ton on July 1 to 5400 yuan / ton on July 16, and 5700 yuan / ton as of July 31. On the whole, the phenol market fell in July.

Trend chart of average price of phenol in the national market in 2020

Trend chart of phenol commodity index in East China

The overall decline of the market in July was mainly due to the sluggish demand for terminals and the poor procurement of terminal factories, which just needed to be followed up, and the market confidence was not optimistic. However, the domestic phenol Market is relatively sufficient, and the market is still difficult to get rid of the downward trend under the game of supply and demand.

The decline in demand is the main reason for phenol’s downward trend, and the main reason for the stagnation at the end of the month. According to statistics, the bisphenol a plant downstream of phenol has been started in 60%. The 150000 T / a bisphenol a plant of Sinopec No.3 well will be shut down on July 20. It is expected that the BPA plant in South Asia will be shut down for maintenance on July 18, and the plant will start operation in late August. In addition, the 135000 T / a BPA plant of Changchun Chemical Co., Ltd. will be shut down for two weeks in July. Another important downstream phenolic resin industry started to maintain stable, operating rate fluctuations. To sum up, the phenol market demand side was relatively weak and the support was insufficient. When the market went down to about 5500 yuan / T, the market stopped falling. Although there was a short-term positive stimulation from the bisphenol a market, the more important thing was that the high-level inventory of the shippers was not high, and the overall market price supporting intention was relatively strong. Therefore, the market continued to rise several times in the middle and late July, but the terminal market did not buy more Just need Inventory, the market is in a stalemate.

In July, the phenol market continued to fall sharply in the early stage, but after the middle of the month, the market was in a deadlock, and the upward support was insufficient. The market was in a dilemma and ended in a weak end at the end of the month. Now the phenol Market is in a weak and weak state. The main domestic supply is sufficient. First, the port replenishment is relatively sufficient. In July, a large number of phenol from Thailand, Singapore, Saudi Arabia and South Korea arrived in Hong Kong. At present, about 8000 tons of phenol from Thailand arrived in Hong Kong in early August. On the whole, the port volume is relatively moderate and the replenishment is relatively sufficient. The second is the high operating rate of domestic factories. The recent start-up situation of domestic factories is as follows. It can be seen from the figure below that except Sinopec three well unit is still under maintenance, other units are operating at full capacity. In August, Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 650000 T / a phenol ketone unit is expected to be put into operation, and the social supply is expected to be very sufficient.

Recent maintenance status of phenol ketone plants in China

From the perspective of business agencies, in August, at present, the operating rate of phenol plants in China has reached a high level. At the end of August, Sinopec Mitsui phenol ketone plant will also resume production. Although some ports have delayed arrival, they are expected to arrive in the warehouse to replenish port inventory in the short term. In August, the factory will implement new contracts, but the demand side is difficult to improve greatly, and the overall downturn is expected The market is expected to continue to decline in early August, and the price space in East China is expected to be 5400 yuan / T.

1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market fell slightly in the first half of the week and rebounded slightly in the second half of the week, according to the data from the business club’s bulk list. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3550 yuan / ton, down 0.84% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the price of isomeric xylene fell slightly and continuously. Affected by the lower profit margin and lower operating rate of downstream PX manufacturers, the demand for isomeric xylene slowed down, and the logistics was not smooth due to the superimposed flood situation, and the transaction of isomerized xylene was not active. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3600 yuan / ton. Due to the demand doubts brought about by the increase of new crown cases and the deepening of international relations confrontation, the market continues to pay attention to the impact of the continued spread of overseas epidemic situation on the demand for crude oil caused by the economic restart, and the possible economic recovery rescue plan launched by Europe and the United States.

Upstream, crude oil, this week’s international oil prices fluctuated higher from Monday to Thursday, fell back on Friday to adjust. At present, the crude oil price is generally in the oscillation range. As of Friday, spot Brent fell $0.815/barrel, or 1.86%, to close at $42.895. The longer the oscillation lasts, the greater the possibility of large fluctuations in the future. Therefore, we must not be paralyzed by the boring market. The future market closely watched the fluctuation and breakthrough of Brent crude oil in the range of 40-44 USD / barrel.

Downstream, PX market, domestic Sinopec’s listed price is about 4800 yuan / ton this week, the latest external price is about 534 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 552 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term. In terms of PTA market, the domestic PTA spot market price is about 3542 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 435 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price will continue to maintain a stable trend next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene quotation is stable, with the price of 4400 yuan / ton. The external price of o-benzene is about 510 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 541 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will maintain a stable trend next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe: in the short term, OPEC + production reduction, total number of oil drilling in the United States and EIA, API inventory data in the short term. In the medium term, on the demand side, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, the geographical situation between China and the United States, and the continuous deterioration of the global second epidemic situation have an impact on the demand for crude oil for economic restart, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the impact of poor logistics caused by the flood situation. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the continued spread of the overseas epidemic on the demand for crude oil, and the possible economic recovery rescue plans launched by Europe and the United States. On the whole, it is expected that xylene prices in the domestic market will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.

1、 Price trend

This week, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China is temporarily stable, with an offer of 357.50 yuan / ton. Overall, the market of hydrochloric acid remained stable this week, with the commodity index of hydrochloric acid on July 24 at 94.08.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, this week’s hydrochloric acid Market manufacturer’s quotation is stable temporarily, the overall market is general. The quotation of Taiyuan kunshengda hydrochloric acid is 480 yuan / T, which is temporarily stable; Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 300 yuan / T, which is temporarily stable; Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid is 260 yuan / T at weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid is quoted at 450 yuan / T at weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Dezhou Meihua hydrochloric acid is quoted at 240 yuan / T at weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid, while the high consolidation of the downstream silica and ammonium chloride market has a positive impact on hydrochloric acid and has a certain support for the price of hydrochloric acid. The overall hydrochloric acid market this week seems to be stable temporarily, and the difficulty of hydrochloric acid delivery is still a big problem.

3、 Future forecast

The recent market of upstream liquid chlorine is general, while the downstream silica and ammonium chloride are mainly purchased on demand. Business agency analysts believe that hydrochloric acid recent low consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business association, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 14666.67 yuan / ton on July 24, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week (20th), and the price was flat compared with the beginning of the month. The market is stable in the near future.

2、 Market analysis

The salicylic acid market is running smoothly this week. It was in the off-season and the demand was not high. In addition, in the rainy season in the south, some downstream enterprises stopped production and stopped work, which inhibited the demand for salicylic acid. Foreign exports did not improve significantly, and the price of raw materials declined. The trend of salicylic acid decreased obviously and steadily, yielding a small profit. As of July 23, the industrial grade price of salicylic acid of Zhenjiang MaoYuan Chemical Co., Ltd. was 15000 yuan / ton, and the price remained stable. The industrial grade price of salicylic acid of Hebei Jingye Chemical Co., Ltd. is 14000 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The industrial grade price of new hualongxin salicylic acid is about 15000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of methyl salicylate is about 23800 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The industrial grade price of salicylic acid of Yanying chemical is about 12000 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The industrial grade salicylic acid of Henan Diduo Chemical Co., Ltd. is 14000 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is mainly through negotiation.

For phenol, from the end of July, the operating rate is expected to pick up, the supply is relatively sufficient, the demand side is looking at the buyer’s downturn, the industry’s prosperity is not good, and the factory’s start-up is also gradually declining. From the international situation, some factories are gradually returning to work, and the import volume is steadily increasing. As for the phenol Market, it is difficult to find the low price. As for some traders, the cost of holding goods in the early stage is high, and the mentality of raising price is strong. However, the downstream bid is low, the factory is close to the settlement, and the market supply is slightly tense, and the actual transaction is not optimistic. The business association predicted that the demand side is hard to say good, and the supply side is full of bad news, and the phenol Market is hard to change in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Salicylic acid analysts of the business agency believe that the consumption off-season superimposes the southern plum rain season, which suppresses part of the demand. Salicylic acid enterprises generally ship goods and light trading. It is expected that the trend will continue to be weak and stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the big list data of business agency, the aniline price this week remained stable compared with last week. On July 17, the aniline price in Shandong was 4200-4280 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 4200-4300 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, the listed price of pure benzene was 2930-3300 yuan / ton (average price 3140 yuan / ton) this Sunday (July 19), and the average price was 10 yuan / ton, or 0.32% lower than last week. This week, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene continued to be stable, and the price of pure benzene in Shandong was weakened by the pressure of delivery. This week, the port inventory rose again, and the main port inventory is about 264000 tons.

Since June 10, the price of nitric acid in East China has been stable, and the price in East China is 1450 yuan / ton.

This week, aniline enterprise supply and demand is stable, inventory pressure is small, the price is stable within the week.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, the pure benzene market is limited by the port high inventory and delivery pressure, which is difficult to improve in the short term. It is expected that the short-term pure benzene price range will fluctuate.

Cost side guidance is not strong, supply and demand are stable. It is expected that aniline price will continue to be stable next week.

OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries have agreed to reduce production to 7.7 million barrels per day from August, according to a statement issued by the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Riyadh, Xinhua news agency, on the 15th. The Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee of OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries held a video conference on the same day. The conference issued a statement saying that as countries around the world slowly recover from the new epidemic, the global economy shows signs of improvement, and will enter the second phase of the oil production reduction agreement from August, that is, the scale of production reduction will be reduced to 7.7 million barrels per day.

The statement said that both OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries fully implement the quota reduction, which is not only fair, but also essential for the current efforts to achieve long-term stability of the oil market and restore the balance of supply and demand in the market.

The statement said that for countries that did not complete the previous quota reduction, the meeting asked them to submit plans to the OPEC Secretariat before the end of July on how to compensate for the production reduction gap.

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Abdel Aziz bin Salman, said at the meeting on the same day that the actual oil production reduction scale in August will exceed 7.7 million barrels per day due to compensation from countries that have not completed the production reduction quota in the first three months. He also said Saudi Arabia would not increase oil exports in August.

On April 12 this year, OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries reached an agreement on reducing oil production. From May to June this year, the average scale of oil production reduction was 9.7 million barrels per day. From July to the end of the year, the scale of production reduction was reduced to 7.7 million barrels per day. On June 6, OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries agreed to extend the scale of reducing crude oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day to the end of July.

The Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee of OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries was established in 2016. Its main task is to coordinate the domestic oil production of OPEC and non OPEC countries and maintain the stability of international oil prices.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of July 10, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol including packaging in mainstream areas was around 11900 yuan / ton, which was basically stable compared with the price on the first day of this month; compared with the price on June 1, the average price increased by 733 yuan / ton, or 6.57%. Compared with the price on April 1 at the beginning of the second quarter, the average price increased by 1833 yuan / ton, or 18.21%.

Since mid April, n-propanol has entered the upstream channel, and the strong trend in the past two months is mainly due to the support of raw material ethylene and the rising market of isopropanol, downstream users turn to replenish their positions and use n-propanol as solvent. From April to now, the trend of isopropanol has been repeated, but n-propanol can be described as a steady rise all the way, mainly due to the factory’s active regulation and control of the operating rate of n-propanol, the low level of n-propanol inventory, and the sharp rise of raw material ethylene price to the steady rise of the market of n-propanol.

The market of n-propanol was stable in the first ten days of July

In July, the domestic n-propanol market was mainly stable, with low plant operating rate, tight supply and small inventory pressure, which supported the stable offer of n-propanol. 8. On the 9th, with the obvious downward trend of isopropanol market, the wait-and-see mood of downstream manufacturers of n-propanol increased, the atmosphere of transaction was relatively cold, the market shipping resistance was large, and more on-demand procurement was given priority to.

As of July 10, Nanjing area: the manufacturer Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd., the normal operation of 30000 T / a n-propanol plant, the ex factory quotation of n-propanol for external bulk water is 11000 yuan / T (cash purified water ex warehouse price), the current price is the same as the price of 1 day, the supply is tight, and the goods are delivered according to the plan; in Shandong area, the mainstream delivery price of n-butanol (bulk water) is 10800-11200 yuan / T, and the low-end bulk water is in the range of 10800-11200 yuan / T The delivery price is 10500 yuan / ton, the high-end bulk water is 11500 yuan / ton; the mainstream delivery price of n-butanol barrel is 11600-12000 yuan / ton, and that of rare high-end barrel is 12500 yuan / ton. Shanghai: with the rise of the price of domestic n-propanol, some traders in Shanghai have also raised the price of imported n-propanol (barreled) one after another. The current quotation is around 13500-14000 yuan / ton. Dealers in various regions still have reservations about the price. It is not easy to monitor the price, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has its own differences. The actual negotiation is mainly based on the actual order, and the future market needs to wait and see the price of raw materials Change of qualification and shipment.

In the upstream sector, since July, the propylene oxide market has been mainly in a small decline. At the beginning of the month, downstream purchasing customers were strongly resistant to high prices, and the buying orders were cold and the follow-up of new orders was weak. Under the increasing inventory pressure, the mentality of supporting prices became weak and the market quotation was lowered. As of July 9, the reference price of propylene oxide was 9833.33 yuan / ton, down 133 yuan / ton or 1.34% compared with July 1 (9966.67 yuan / ton).

In terms of raw materials, the overall market of ethylene in the first week of July still showed a slight upward trend. 7, part of the ethylene market fell. As of the 9th, the European ethylene market fell, with FD northwest Europe offering 769-779 US dollars / ton, down 25 US dollars / ton; CIF northwest Europe quoted 750-758 US dollars / ton, down 6 US dollars / ton; Asian ethylene market remained stable, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 795-805 US dollars / ton, CFR Southeast Asia quoted 745-755 US dollars / ton. In the near future, the price of ethylene in Asia is mainly on July 10, 2020, and the demand is general. The future market changes are affected by the continuous decline of upstream crude oil price. It is predicted that the following decline will be the main trend. The US ethylene market was mainly down, with FD US $335-353 / T, down US $2 / T, the price was still low and the market demand was general.

Under the high level of n-propanol in late July

On the whole, the raw material market of n-propanol from ethylene process has risen rapidly since April. With the sharp rise of cost, the profit of n-propanol has been reduced continuously, and the offer of factories has been rising. Although the market of ethylene in Asia has declined slightly in recent two days, the overall trend is still high. Therefore, according to the current situation, the market price of ethylene process n-propanol has little space to decline. However, with the sharp decline of isopropanol, the advantages of the solvent market have become weak. At present, the pressure of market shipment is increased compared with the previous period. Under the guarantee of profits, the operators will more support the price operation. Therefore, the factory will regulate the operating rate of n-propanol of ethylene process in late July to stabilize the market Price, when the market does not rule out that the manufacturer reduces the profit for competitive shipment and lowers the ex factory price of n-propanol.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic light potassium carbonate this week is 6212.50 yuan / ton, the current price is down 0.40% month on month, and the current price is 5.87% lower than last year.

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate Market remained stable, the trading atmosphere of potassium carbonate market was general, the activity was low, the inventory pressure was large, the manufacturer’s shipping volume was general, and the downstream procurement mainly maintained the rigid demand. According to the statistics of the business agency, the mainstream ex factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 6000-6400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the purchase situation.

This week, the price quoted by the mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride in the upstream was temporarily stable. Some new sources of goods still arrived at the port, and the supply of goods was relatively sufficient. The main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, the trading atmosphere is cold and the domestic potassium chloride market remains stable. Limited support for potassium carbonate.

Potassium carbonate analysts of the business club believe that the domestic potash fertilizer market has maintained a relatively stable trend in the near future, and the upstream potassium chloride supply is sufficient. Although the price continues to be at a low level, the rebound space is relatively limited. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly fall below in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

The commodity index of hydrogenated benzene on June 29 was 37.53, unchanged with yesterday, down 63.21% from 102.01 (2014-01-09), and 25.14% higher than 29.99, the lowest point on April 07, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2013 to now).

In June 2020, the hydrobenzene market entered the downward channel after the fluctuation trend. The ex factory price in North China was 3566.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 333.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 6.54%. The hydrobenzene market went up steadily in the first half of this month, and then entered the downward channel in the second half of this month.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment in June 2020 (unit: yuan / ton)

Price adjustment amount after date adjustment

June 5 3600 + 100

June 10 3700 + 100

June 15 3600 – 100

19 June 3550 – 50

June 23 3500 – 50

June 24 3450 – 50

June 28 3250 – 200

In June 2020, Sinopec increased the ex factory price of pure benzene twice and lowered it five times, with a cumulative decrease of 250 yuan / ton. By the end of the month, Sinopec North China pure benzene implemented 3250 yuan / ton, down 250 yuan / ton compared with the previous month.

Price changes of major domestic markets in June 2020 (unit: yuan / ton)

Monthly price rise and fall on the 15th and 30th

East China 3500-3600 3700 ～ 3800 3000-3150-475

Shandong area 3400-3500 3650-3700 3000-3050-425

In the first half of the month, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton twice, and the external market of pure benzene rose significantly. On November 11, the upstream crude benzene raised the new round of bidding price by 200 yuan / ton, and the implementation in Shandong area was about 3100 yuan / ton, which brought external benefits to the hydrobenzene market. The price of hydrogenated benzene market was pushed up to the highest point of about 3675 yuan / ton in the month Full, into the high consolidation stage. Although crude oil rebounded in the middle of the month, its support for the downstream market was limited. The external market of pure benzene continued to decline, which had a great impact on the domestic pure benzene market. Sinopec North China took the lead in reducing the ex factory price of pure benzene by 50 yuan / T from May 15, and the pure benzene entered the downward channel. The negative factors surrounding the hydrobenzene were frequent, and the hydrobenzene market was basically under pressure.

Summary of main downstream start-up of hydrobenzene in June 2020 (unit: yuan / ton)

The 24 day operating rate of the product changes compared with that at the beginning of the month

Styrene 84% – 8%

Cyclohexanone 66% – 13%

Adipic acid 60% – 4%

Phenol 64% – 14%

Aniline 35% – 23%

Maleic anhydride 74% + 4%

Caprolactam 81% + 7%

The operating rate of downstream styrene, phenol and other enterprises has declined this month, of which aniline operating rate has declined greatly, reaching about 40%. On the whole, the downstream operating rate has declined on the whole, and the demand for hydrogenated benzene is weak. On the whole, the contradiction between supply and demand of hydrogenated benzene has become prominent, and the negative factors in demand side affect the market.

In the aftermarket, the business club believes that the hydrobenzene market is still under pressure, and the crude oil price fluctuates, resulting in a certain degree of market wait-and-see sentiment. If the new units of the downstream enterprises of hydrogenated benzene start on schedule in the second half of the year, the demand for hydrobenzene will be improved, and the pressure on inventory will be relieved, which will provide some support to the market. However, there are many negative factors in the short term, and the market is in a weak consolidation trend Under the cost pressure, it is expected that the hydrobenzene market will have a great downward pressure, and the future market still needs to focus on the changes of crude benzene and pure benzene inventory.

1、 Price data

According to the data in the business club’s bulk list, the price of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries has risen slightly. Now the average price of Shandong market at the beginning of the week is about 1138.5 yuan / ton, while the average price of Shandong market at the end of the week is 1140 yuan / ton, up 0.13%. The coking coal commodity index on June 27 was 100.12, flat with yesterday, down 17.62% from 121.53 (2019-03-12), the highest point in the cycle, and up 122.93% from 44.91, the lowest point on January 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Upstream: on June 26, the US WTI crude oil futures market price fell, and the settlement price of main contracts was $38.49/barrel, down $0.23. The price of Brent crude oil futures market fell, with the settlement price of the main contract down $0.19 to $40.93. The fall of international oil price is mainly due to the serious trend of the epidemic, which leads to the restart of market fuel demand worries.

Downstream: this week, the glass grid has risen steadily. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of the glass in the beginning of the week is 18.42 yuan / m2, the average price in the weekend is 18.6 yuan / m2, and the price in the week is increased by 0.98%. Most of the manufacturers are in the form of price increase and promotion, and the price fixing operation. At present, the inventory of enterprises is further reduced, and the inventory pressure of production enterprises is reduced, which plays a significant role in supporting the market price. At present, the carbon market is stable, the terminal industry is stable, and the economic environment is expected to be better.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 25th week of 2020 (6.22-6.26), there are 6 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which the top three commodities are asphalt (1.62%), methanol (1.39%) and WTI crude oil (1.36%). There are four kinds of commodities that have declined on a month on month basis, and the top three products are liquefied natural gas (- 0.81%), diesel (- 0.60%) and MTBE (- 0.42%). This week’s average was 0.33%.

3、 Future forecast

The price of cokes in the local refining market of petroleum coke analysts of the business association kept a slight upward trend under the influence of the tight supply of resources. This week, the trading atmosphere in the forging and burning market was good, and the purchasing heat in the downstream was not reduced. The three major groups and their subordinate refineries are mainly on a positive trend, and there are many manufacturers for next overhaul. It is comprehensively expected that there will be a small increase in the petroleum coke market in the later stage.