This week (11.17-21), domestic liquid ammonia prices mainly stopped rising and fell back. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the weekly decline of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 0.67%. The main reason is that environmental restrictions on production in some northern provinces are gradually being lifted, and some facilities have resumed operation, leading to an increase in supply. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2400-2580 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, the supply has maintained a stable and increasing trend this week. Environmental protection production restrictions in northern regions have ended, and ammonia companies are gradually resuming production. In addition, the production of liquid ammonia in Shandong, Hebei, and Henan regions has not decreased, and prices have stopped rising and slightly decreased. Prices in the northwest, Inner Mongolia, and Ningxia regions have significantly declined, while prices in the southwest region have slightly increased, with slight regional differentiation. From the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, some enterprises in Shandong region have made downward adjustments, but the magnitude is not significant. The price adjustment range of large factories in Shandong region is generally within 100 yuan, and the market shows a basic balance between supply and demand. However, enterprises still have expectations of resuming work in the later stage, and the supply may continue to increase in the later stage.
From the demand side, downstream demand has shown lukewarm performance, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers remaining low and the phosphate fertilizer market weak, resulting in relatively weak demand. But urea shipments have increased recently, and prices have rebounded within the week. According to the commodity analysis system, the weekly increase in urea prices was 1.53%. On the one hand, the reserves in Northeast China have increased, leading to an increase in demand. On the other hand, with the upcoming printing of labels, there is a growing demand in the market. Overall, domestic industrial demand is weak, while agricultural demand is mainly driven by on-demand procurement and sporadic restocking. The improvement in demand is not significant, and the market’s wait-and-see attitude still dominates.
Market forecast:
Business analysts believe that the supply and demand pressure in the liquid ammonia market is expected to be moderate next week, and the market may enter a period of oscillation. On the one hand, in the short term, the supply in some areas will remain stable, and the continued rise will be suppressed. On the other hand, there is currently no improvement in agricultural demand, and industrial demand remains weak. Therefore, it is expected that liquid ammonia will continue to struggle to rise, and adjustments will be the main focus in the later period.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 10th to 14th, the domestic ethanol price was adjusted to 5268 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 4.20% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.55%. Domestic ethanol prices remain weak and stable, with average transactions and a high negative market sentiment.

On the cost side, corn prices have slightly increased, and the main factories are mainly digesting low-priced grains from the early stage. The favorable factors for ethanol cost have weakened.
On the supply side, the Northeast region has shown outstanding performance, with an overall operating rate of 92.43%, significantly higher than the national level. Specifically, major large enterprises in Heilongjiang continue to operate at overload, while other factories in the region have also maintained full production capacity, jointly driving up the overall operating load in Northeast China. Several previously suspended enterprises have recently resumed production, and the supply of ethanol is affected by unfavorable factors.
On the demand side, downstream demand for chemical products such as ethyl acetate will increase in the short term, and due to the current cost reduction and high production enthusiasm of factories with profits, the consumption of ethanol will increase. The demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
Market forecast shows stable plant operation, limited demand, and weak price stability.. The ethanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the short-term ethanol market will mainly be weak.

price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market price of isopropanol has slightly decreased this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 5683.33 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 5638.33 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 0.79%.
The market price of isopropanol has slightly decreased this week. At present, the trading atmosphere on the exchange is not good, and the downstream purchasing atmosphere is weak, with the focus of transactions moving towards the low-end. The overall market is dominated by cautious negotiations, with average actual transaction performance. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 5600-5700 yuan/ton; The majority of prices in the isopropanol market in Jiangsu are around 5550-5800 yuan/ton.
Future forecast
The isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyi Society believes that the isopropanol market price has slightly declined this week, with actual orders being the main demand and the focus of transactions tending towards the low-end. It is expected that the short-term market will mainly consolidate weakly, and more attention will be paid to the trading trends of large companies.

The cost support of epoxy resin has weakened, and downstream demand has decreased with the cold weather, especially in the wind power sector. The supply of epoxy resin has become loose, and traders generally have a bearish attitude towards the future market. New offers from epoxy resin manufacturers are mainly decreasing with the cost value. The raw material bisphenol A market has also been affected by the industrial chain, and the market has been declining. Given that bisphenol A is at a low price and has a significant loss, the decline is limited. There is no obvious support from the downstream demand side of ECH, and the market continues to be in a downward channel.

Business Society expects that epoxy resin will mainly operate at a low level, and will continue to pay attention to downstream demand and cost fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic BDO market is weakly consolidated. From October 1st to 31st, BDO prices fell from 7565 yuan/ton to 7437 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.38% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 13.81%.

In October, the domestic BDO market was weak and consolidated, with some devices undergoing maintenance or reduced load operation, resulting in increased supply side support. Downstream demand has increased on a month on month basis, but losses in multiple downstream industries have led to negotiations on raw materials, and the market center of gravity is deadlocked under the supply-demand game.
Supply side: The supply of goods has decreased month on month, and there is some positive support from the supply side. The supply of BDO is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of cost, raw material calcium carbide: In terms of supply, the orderly use of electricity in Inner Mongolia has eased, and some maintenance facilities have gradually resumed, resulting in a significant increase in supply; Downstream maintenance has been gradually completed, and regional demand has recovered. However, some companies still face inventory pressure at present, and there have been instances of easing inventory accumulation when using electricity in an orderly manner, but the market sentiment is bearish. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market continues to be weak. As of 3:00 pm on October 31st, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang is 2150 yuan/ton. The raw material calcium carbide market is rising, while methanol is consolidating weakly, resulting in a mixed impact on BDO costs.
On the demand side, the overall production of downstream industries is still acceptable, but the amount of raw material digestion has increased. The BDO industry is showing a trend of supply reduction and demand increase, and the supply side has a strong intention to support the market. In the early stage of downstream raw material procurement, there is sufficient supply to continue digesting inventory or maintaining contract order follow-up; Under cost pressure, downstream spot purchases have weak intentions and are accompanied by bargaining, which suppresses the trend of raw materials. BDO demand is expected to be affected by negative factors.
Future forecast: Domestic BDO factories have stable production, abundant supply of goods, and average supply side support. However, downstream maintenance of essential needs may lead to increased inventory pressure, limiting the trend of raw materials. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market will operate weakly.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 30th, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 1620 yuan/ton, which is 1.41% higher than the reference average price of 1597 yuan/ton on October 24th.
2、 Market analysis
market situation
This week, the domestic urea market price first rose and then fell. As of October 30th, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1550-1620 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1560-1620 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1530-1580 yuan/ton, Hubei is around 1560-1610 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1620-1660 yuan/ton.
Supply and demand situation
This week, the supply and demand of the domestic urea market remained stable. In terms of supply, the daily production of urea remains high, and supply pressure still exists. In terms of demand, there is currently no significant improvement in industrial and agricultural demand, and the trading atmosphere in the urea market is light, with downstream purchases mainly seeking lower prices.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the domestic urea market has been weak and declining recently. Due to the continuous rise in urea prices in the early stage, downstream consumers have a resistance to high prices, and their cautious purchasing mentality has increased. It is expected that in the short term, domestic urea prices will experience a slight consolidation and operation.

This week, the phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 27th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 5983.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.83% compared to the price of 6033.33 yuan/ton on October 20th. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride remained stable, while the price of industrial naphthalene remained weak and consolidated. The cost support for phthalic anhydride was insufficient. The equipment load of phthalic anhydride slightly rebounded this week, and the operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises increased. The supply of phthalic anhydride was sufficient, and the downstream plasticizer market fluctuated and fell. The equipment operating load of plasticizer enterprises decreased, and the demand support for phthalic anhydride weakened. The cost is temporarily stable and the demand is weak. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell.
Demand side: Downstream production decreases, DOP prices fluctuate and fall
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 27th, the DOP price was 7109.16 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.39% compared to the DOP price of 7209.17 yuan/ton on October 20th. This week, DOP prices fluctuated and fell, with DOP companies operating at less than 60% capacity and a slight decrease in operating rates. Demand for phthalic anhydride remained weak, and the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride increased this week.
Future forecast
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of demand, the load of plasticizer enterprises has slightly decreased, the production of plasticizers has stabilized, and the support for phthalic anhydride demand has decreased; In terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene is stabilizing, the price of industrial naphthalene is weakly stabilizing, and the cost of phthalic anhydride is stabilizing. In the future, the cost of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, and demand remains weak. It is expected that the price of phthalic anhydride will fluctuate and fall.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the styrene market first fell and then rose this week, with an average price of 6844 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 6850 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.09% during the week.

News: On October 23rd, international crude oil futures rose sharply. The settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $61.79 per barrel, an increase of $3.29 or 5.6%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December was $65.99 per barrel, an increase of $3.40 or 5.4%.
Cost wise: The main port of pure benzene in East China maintains a pace of destocking, and the market sentiment is weak. Combined with weak downstream growth and intensified losses, coupled with insufficient new orders at the terminal, secondary downstream inventory remains high and difficult to reduce, resulting in significant resistance to price transmission. The pure benzene market continues to weaken and decline.
Supply and demand side: This week, the supply of styrene has decreased, and port inventories have slightly decreased. However, due to the drag of the decline in crude oil prices, there is significant resistance to price increases. The main downstream PS production has increased, while EPS and ABS production may have limited fluctuations, and consumption is expected to remain stable with moderate growth.
Styrene external market: On October 23rd, the closing prices of the styrene market in Asia remained stable, with closing prices of $790-800/ton FOB Korea and $800-810/ton CFR China.
Market forecast: The fundamentals of the styrene market remain weak, and there is no significant improvement in terminal consumption. It is expected that the styrene market will operate weakly in the short term.

Recently (10.1-10.20), the trichloromethane market in Shandong region has experienced a significant decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 20th, the price of trichloromethane water in Shandong Province was 1700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.11% from 1850 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have risen, which is supported by the cost of trichloromethane. Downstream production remains low, dragging down the trichloromethane market. In addition, the overall production of methane chloride remains high, leading to a downward trend in the trichloromethane market after the holiday.

Recently (10.1-10.20), some units were shut down for maintenance, and the overall production of methane chloride in China was around 8.4%.
Recently, the prices of methanol and liquid chlorine have risen, providing support for the cost of trichloromethane. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 20th, the spot price of methanol was 2290 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.35% from 2237 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of October 20th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region was around 200 yuan/ton, significantly higher than before the holiday.
The demand for downstream refrigerant R22 continues to be weak after the holiday, and the support for trichloromethane demand has weakened. In addition, the R22 quota will continue to decrease in 2025, which will have a negative impact on trichloromethane. In 2013, the baseline production quota for second-generation refrigerants in China was 426400 tons. After multiple pressure drops, it will be reduced to 163600 tons by 2025. Among them, the production quotas for R22, R142b, and R141b are 149100 tons, 0.34 tons, and 0.92 tons, respectively.
The methane chloride data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the cost of trichloromethane will continue to be supported; However, the supply and demand of trichloromethane are relatively weak, and it is expected that the trichloromethane market will mainly consolidate weakly in the later period.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the TDI market in East China has slightly declined this week. As of October 17th, the average market price in East China was 13500 yuan/ton. On October 13th, the average price was 13566/ton, a decrease of 0.49% during the week and a year-on-year increase of 1.5%.
This week, the TDI market remained stable with small movements, continuing the stagnant trend. While the supplier raises the price, their willingness to ship remains unchanged, and traders follow the market trend. In order to stimulate sales, the focus of price transactions has slightly shifted downwards. The news side was relatively calm during the week, and overall production was relatively stable. The supply of goods was filled quickly, with strong supply and weak demand. The TDI market transactions were average, and prices slightly loosened.

Supply side: Fujian Wanhua TDI plant operates with reduced load. Other devices maintain stable operation.
Cost wise: The toluene market is weak and declining, with a bearish trading atmosphere and average market transactions. The guidance on news is limited, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.
In terms of future analysis, the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the guidance for future news is limited, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that the TDI market will continue to experience a slight downward trend in the short term.