In July, the domestic phenol market first suppressed and then rose, with an overall downward trend. According to the monitoring data of business agency, on July 1, 2020, the average price of phenol in China was 7150 yuan / ton, and on July 31, it was 5800 yuan / ton, with the market down by 18.88%. In the middle of July, it dropped to the lowest point, and the average offer in the national market was 5650 yuan / ton. Among them, the mainstream East China market declined from 6850 yuan / ton on July 1 to 5400 yuan / ton on July 16, and 5700 yuan / ton as of July 31. On the whole, the phenol market fell in July.
Trend chart of average price of phenol in the national market in 2020
Trend chart of phenol commodity index in East China
The overall decline of the market in July was mainly due to the sluggish demand for terminals and the poor procurement of terminal factories, which just needed to be followed up, and the market confidence was not optimistic. However, the domestic phenol Market is relatively sufficient, and the market is still difficult to get rid of the downward trend under the game of supply and demand.
The decline in demand is the main reason for phenol’s downward trend, and the main reason for the stagnation at the end of the month. According to statistics, the bisphenol a plant downstream of phenol has been started in 60%. The 150000 T / a bisphenol a plant of Sinopec No.3 well will be shut down on July 20. It is expected that the BPA plant in South Asia will be shut down for maintenance on July 18, and the plant will start operation in late August. In addition, the 135000 T / a BPA plant of Changchun Chemical Co., Ltd. will be shut down for two weeks in July. Another important downstream phenolic resin industry started to maintain stable, operating rate fluctuations. To sum up, the phenol market demand side was relatively weak and the support was insufficient. When the market went down to about 5500 yuan / T, the market stopped falling. Although there was a short-term positive stimulation from the bisphenol a market, the more important thing was that the high-level inventory of the shippers was not high, and the overall market price supporting intention was relatively strong. Therefore, the market continued to rise several times in the middle and late July, but the terminal market did not buy more Just need Inventory, the market is in a stalemate.
In July, the phenol market continued to fall sharply in the early stage, but after the middle of the month, the market was in a deadlock, and the upward support was insufficient. The market was in a dilemma and ended in a weak end at the end of the month. Now the phenol Market is in a weak and weak state. The main domestic supply is sufficient. First, the port replenishment is relatively sufficient. In July, a large number of phenol from Thailand, Singapore, Saudi Arabia and South Korea arrived in Hong Kong. At present, about 8000 tons of phenol from Thailand arrived in Hong Kong in early August. On the whole, the port volume is relatively moderate and the replenishment is relatively sufficient. The second is the high operating rate of domestic factories. The recent start-up situation of domestic factories is as follows. It can be seen from the figure below that except Sinopec three well unit is still under maintenance, other units are operating at full capacity. In August, Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 650000 T / a phenol ketone unit is expected to be put into operation, and the social supply is expected to be very sufficient.
Recent maintenance status of phenol ketone plants in China
From the perspective of business agencies, in August, at present, the operating rate of phenol plants in China has reached a high level. At the end of August, Sinopec Mitsui phenol ketone plant will also resume production. Although some ports have delayed arrival, they are expected to arrive in the warehouse to replenish port inventory in the short term. In August, the factory will implement new contracts, but the demand side is difficult to improve greatly, and the overall downturn is expected The market is expected to continue to decline in early August, and the price space in East China is expected to be 5400 yuan / T.