1、 Price trend
On September 30th, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Shandong was 10600 yuan/ton, which was an increase of 1400 yuan/ton or 15.22% compared to September 1st (reference price for cyclohexanone was 9200 yuan/ton).
In mid to early September, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province steadily rose and operated, with the focus of the cyclohexanone market constantly adjusting upwards. By mid month, the cyclohexanone market price had risen to around 10700 yuan/ton, an increase of over 16% compared to the beginning of the month. Subsequently, in late September, the market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong experienced a slight correction, but the extent of the decrease was limited. As the end of the month approached, the market rebounded again. By the end of the month, the overall cyclohexanone market in Shandong had closed at a high level. As of September 30th, the reference price for the cyclohexanone market in Shandong was around 10500-10700 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
In terms of cost: In September, the pure benzene market on the cost side of cyclohexanone showed an upward trend, and the cost side provided stable and strengthened support for cyclohexanone. With the support of raw materials, the market for cyclohexanone gradually rose.
In terms of supply and demand: In September, the supply side of cyclohexanone in Shandong performed relatively steadily, with the arrival of the Golden September and downstream users gradually starting to stock up. The overall supply and demand transmission performance of the cyclohexanone market was good, providing market support for bottoming out.
3、 Future forecast
At present, the trading atmosphere in the Shandong cyclohexanone market is mild, with cost support still present and a positive attitude among industry players. Business Society data analysts predict that in the short term, the Shandong cyclohexanone market will mainly operate at high levels with a strong bias. More attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand as well as cost side news.

In September, the domestic MIBK market experienced a strong upward trend, with prices soaring significantly and reaching a temporary high. However, the market’s upward trend at the end of the month was weak, with prices slightly falling. The supply-demand pattern and cost support weakened synchronously, and the overall industry expectations turned. The market is likely to experience a pullback trend in the future, presenting an overall market characteristic of “significant increase within the month, loosening at the end of the month, and subsequent decline”.
From the monthly price trend, the MIBK market has seen a significant increase this month. At the beginning of September, the average price of MIBK in the domestic market was only around 10300 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, the market started to rise and the market continued to strengthen. As of September 29th, the reference price of MIBK in the domestic market has fallen back to 13566.67 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 31.72% for the whole month. The mainstream market negotiation price in East China remains in the range of 13300-13500 yuan/ton for self extraction of clean water including tax, and the high price transactions in the market are weak, with obvious signs of loosening.
The MIBK market saw a significant increase in September, driven by three main factors: supply contraction, peak season demand boost, and rising market sentiment. On the supply side, due to the maintenance and low operating load of domestic MIBK facilities in the early stage, the market spot circulation remained tight, and the tight supply pattern lasted from the first half to the middle of the month. Traders had a strong mentality of being reluctant to sell and raising prices, which drove prices to continue to rise. At the same time, the traditional peak season of “Golden Nine” in the chemical industry is approaching, and the operating rates of downstream end industries such as coatings, inks, adhesives, etc. are steadily recovering. The demand for replenishment of essential needs is concentrated, effectively driving the increase in transaction activity in the MIBK market and providing solid demand support for price increases.
As we enter late September, the favorable factors supporting the upward trend of the market gradually fade away, the turning point of the market appears, and the downward pressure continues to accumulate. On the cost side, the upstream acetone market prices continue to weaken, and the overall market is under pressure. The cost support for MIBK continues to weaken, and the industry’s profit margin has been restored. The driving force for manufacturers to raise prices has also weakened, and some companies have started to give up profits and sell goods in order to recoup funds, leading to a slight shift in the focus of market negotiations. On the demand side, downstream terminal industries have basically completed the replenishment of essential needs. Under high prices, terminal procurement tends to be cautious, mainly focusing on purchasing in small quantities according to demand. The market transaction atmosphere is gradually light, and the high price acceptance is insufficient, making it difficult to support the sustained high market trend.
The pressure on the supply side has gradually rebounded. With the resumption of production of maintenance equipment in the early stage, the operating load of the domestic MIBK market has steadily increased, and the spot circulation has gradually increased. The tight supply pattern in the early stage has been effectively alleviated, and the market supply and demand pattern has gradually shifted from tight balance to loose. At the same time, after the price rose rapidly in the month, the market speculation gradually cooled, speculative replenishment demand exited, the market returned to the dominant fundamentals, and the high foam gradually cleared.

Overall, the MIBK market saw a significant upward trend in September due to peak season demand and supply contraction. However, at the end of the month, all the positive fundamentals dissipated, and negative factors such as weak cost support, insufficient demand follow-up, and steady supply recovery were concentrated. It is expected that the domestic MIBK market will continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term, and enter a pullback channel as a whole. Prices are likely to steadily fall, and the space for high-level decline is gradually opening up. In the future, it is necessary to focus on the fluctuations in upstream raw material prices, changes in domestic plant operation, and the sustainability of downstream terminal demand during peak seasons, in order to grasp the pace and magnitude of market corrections.

As of the 24th, the price of ethyl acetate was 6766.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.67 yuan/ton or 0.25% compared to the price of 6750 yuan/ton on September 21st. Upstream acetic acid prices have risen, with strong cost support, while downstream acceptance of high prices is poor. The market trading atmosphere is weak, and the price of ethyl acetate fluctuates narrowly.
On the supply side, the operating rate of ethyl acetate has decreased this week, and there is not much pressure on the spot supply in the market; On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid continues to rise, and the production cost of ethyl acetate enterprises increases, supporting the high operation of ethyl acetate prices; In terms of demand, downstream consumers are resistant to high priced goods and mainly purchase on demand when entering the market, lacking driving support for the market; Some operators are cautious in their mentality and have slightly adjusted the price of ethyl acetate to promote shipment.
Looking at the future, the upstream price of ethyl acetate is running at a high level, with favorable cost support. Although the downstream is resistant to high priced goods, considering the urgent need for pre holiday stocking, the demand side support is still acceptable. It is expected that ethyl acetate will maintain a high level of operation in the short term, with narrow price fluctuations. In the future, specific attention should be paid to the raw material market and downstream follow-up situation.

On September 18th, the price of isooctanol was 9733.33 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased compared to the price of 8833.33 yuan/ton on September 1st, with a growth rate of 10.19%; Compared to September 15th, the price of isooctanol dropped by 9900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.68%. In September, isooctanol first surged sharply, and in mid month, the space for isooctanol to rise sharply was basically closed, and the price began to decline, entering a high-level oscillation game.
The geopolitical game in the Middle East
In September, the escalation of the US Iran maritime conflict led to a decrease in navigation volume in the Strait of Hormuz and a surge in oil tanker insurance premiums; In early September, the Houthi armed offensive intensified, and on September 10th, they captured the Red Sea ports of Muha and Hanish Islands, strengthening their control over the Mandeb Strait. Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked, and the Saudi East West oil pipeline has been temporarily shut down due to an attack. The export of crude oil has been restricted, and the amount of crude oil that can be exported has significantly decreased. Insurance and shipping costs have risen significantly, amplifying expectations of tight supply. In mid September, pipeline repair is expected to heat up, and the risk premium will quickly dissipate. Oman led attempts to mediate the navigation of Hormuz, but no substantial ceasefire agreement was reached. The probability of extreme full-scale firing has decreased, leading to long positions taking profits and leaving the market. Geopolitical premiums have been reduced, and oil prices have fallen from high levels.
The cost of propylene fluctuates and rises
On September 18th, the propylene price was 9701 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 5.13% compared to the propylene price of 9227.67 yuan/ton on September 1st. Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, crude oil surged sharply in early September, and after reaching the $100 mark, oil prices quickly fell back, forming a cost floor for propylene and isooctanol. With the withdrawal of geopolitical premiums, propylene prices fluctuated and fell back. The driving force behind the cost increase of isooctanol has weakened.
Supply side
The overall operating rate of the isooctanol industry is 70% -75%, lower than the same period in previous years, and the supply expectation is tightening. In addition, Hualu has a maintenance plan in September, which provides strong support for the price in the first ten days; Mainstream large factories are implementing phased quantity control and limited order acceptance, resulting in a shortage of spot goods in circulation; After the price surged, downstream buying weakened, and manufacturers’ inventory began to accumulate slightly. In the middle of the month, the willingness to lower the price of isooctanol increased.
Demand side
The peak season of ‘Golden September’, but the actual demand falls short of the price increase. Downstream DOP production has slightly rebounded month on month, with a slight rebound in essential procurement and decent contract orders. However, there is a weak willingness to chase up spot prices. After octanol surged to a high level, downstream resistance to high prices mainly focused on inventory consumption and long-term contracts, resulting in weak spot transactions.
Future prospects
Analysts believe that the surge in raw material propylene in September, coupled with the peak season of supply contraction and demand, has caused multiple resonances and led to a strong bullish sentiment in the market. The price has reached a high point within the year, and downstream pressure has led to a refusal to chase after the rise, resulting in a cooling of spot transactions; After the upward trend was overdrawn, the quotation began to decline, and isooctanol fluctuated at a high level. In the future, the space for the sharp rise of isooctanol is basically closed, and there is a high risk of rapid decline in upstream crude oil and propylene. There is further downward pressure on isooctanol, but the supply and demand in the isooctanol market are tight, and the support for the bottom price of isooctanol still exists. The price of isooctanol is likely to fluctuate widely at a high level in the future.

In September, the price of phthalic anhydride exceeded 10000 yuan
As of September 11th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 10083.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.27% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on September 1st, which was 9400 yuan/ton. This week, the phthalic anhydride market remained stable in the first half of the week, with a concentrated increase starting from September 9th. The price center of phthalic anhydride continued to shift upwards, reaching the high range of the year, with an average price exceeding 10000 yuan.
Rising raw material costs
The escalation of the game in the Middle East has led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, which has been transmitted downstream. The strengthening of crude oil has driven up the prices of ortho xylene and industrial naphthalene. The listing price of ortho benzene has been raised to 9850 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial naphthalene has risen to 7700 yuan/ton. The cost of ortho phthalic anhydride and naphthalene phthalic anhydride has also risen synchronously, supporting the willingness of factories to raise prices.
Tightening of phthalic anhydride supply
The operating rate of the domestic phthalic anhydride industry has declined to 58%; The industry’s inventory is low, and most manufacturers maintain an oversold state. Holders of goods have a strong willingness to raise prices. Guangdong leads the creation of new production capacity for phthalic anhydride equipment, and there are expectations of resuming production and releasing new capacity in phthalic anhydride plants in southern China, which has suppressed market sentiment to some extent and limited support for phthalic anhydride price increases.
Insufficient demand support for phthalic anhydride
Downstream plasticizer production has slightly declined, with a focus on essential purchases and cautious pursuit of higher prices. Downstream consumers have obvious resistance to high levels of phthalic anhydride and only maintain small orders based on demand, unwilling to stockpile in large quantities.
Future forecast
Analysts believe that the sharp rise in raw material prices this week has pushed phthalic anhydride prices above 10000 yuan. However, the phthalic anhydride market is at a high level, with limited room for further significant upward movement, and weak downstream acceptance, increasing resistance to further price increases. The probability of high volatility in phthalic anhydride prices in the future is high. With the easing of the Middle East conflict and the decline in crude oil prices, there is a greater risk of a high-level drop in phthalic anhydride prices.

1、 Price trend

On August 31st, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 8562 yuan/ton, which is 1.86% lower than the reference average price of 8725 yuan/ton on August 1st.
On August 31st, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 8416 yuan/ton, which is 4.90% lower than the reference average price of 8850 yuan/ton on August 1st.
2、 Market analysis
market conditions
The domestic phosphoric acid market has been weak and declining this month. The cost side is polarized, with an increase in the price of raw material yellow phosphorus and a decrease in the price of raw material sulfur. This month, the supply and demand of the phosphoric acid market are stable, downstream purchases are made on demand, and the market is mainly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, with limited new transactions. As of August 31st, the market price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China is around 8100-9000 yuan/ton, and the market price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China is around 8150-9000 yuan/ton.
In terms of cost
Raw material yellow phosphorus market. This month, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market has risen due to tight supply, increased trading volume, and a push up in manufacturer prices. Raw material sulfur market. The sulfur market has weakened this month, with prices continuing to decline. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and market transactions are weak.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that the price trend of the phosphoric acid market has been steadily consolidating and operating in recent days. At present, the demand for phosphoric acid in the market is light, and the cost side is showing a differentiated trend, leading to an increase in market caution. It is expected that the domestic phosphoric acid market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations in the short term.

From August 21st to 28th, the domestic BDO price increased from 7900 yuan/ton to 8091 yuan/ton, with a price cycle increase of 2.43%, a month on month increase of 3.96%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.87%. The capacity utilization rate of the BDO industry remains low, the supply of goods is tight, and online auctions result in high transaction volumes, leading to a strong market sentiment among holding manufacturers. The overall downstream production is stable, contract orders are being followed up, and some spot stocks are being replenished at high levels, driving the market center of gravity to fluctuate upward.

In terms of supply and equipment, the supply volume has increased. The favorable supply side of BDO has weakened its impact.
On the cost side, in terms of calcium carbide, the rise in raw materials has led to a strengthening of cost support, but the downstream continues to be sluggish, and there is a resistance to the continued upward trend in prices. In terms of methanol, the price of methanol tends to rise strongly. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol are rising, and the cost of BDO is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, downstream production of PTMEG, PBT, GBL, and PU slurry has increased, resulting in an increase in demand. The demand for BDO is influenced by favorable factors.
In the future market forecast, the supply-demand game is intensifying, and the BDO market is gradually entering a post rise stalemate stage. The maintenance and restart of the equipment are both in place, and the supply of goods will increase. The support from the supply side will weaken. Overall, analysts predict that the BDO market will consolidate and operate in a wait-and-see manner.

1、 Price trend

As of August 21st, the reference average price of urea market in Shandong Province, China is 1720 yuan/ton, which is 1.03% higher than the reference average price of 1702 yuan/ton on August 17th.
2、 Market analysis
market situation
This week, the domestic urea market has shown a strong upward trend. This week, the urea futures market has strengthened, driving up the spot market. At present, the urea market has sufficient supply, but the market demand is still weak. India’s latest bidding volume exceeds expectations, with support for exports. As of August 21st, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1690-1720 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1700-1740 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1690-1730 yuan/ton, Hubei is around 1700-1740 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1750-1790 yuan/ton.
supply and demand situation
In terms of supply, the current operating rate of urea enterprises is around 90%, and daily production remains high. In terms of demand, downstream compound fertilizer enterprises urgently need to purchase, while industrial and agricultural demand remains flat, with limited new market transactions.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that the domestic urea market trend has been strong and upward recently. At present, the supply and demand in the urea market have not improved, and there is still an oversupply. Suggest paying attention to policy trends and changes in supply and demand. It is expected that the domestic urea market will mainly experience fluctuations and consolidation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

On August 14th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei region was 4416 yuan/ton, and on August 10th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei region was 4450 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of ammonium phosphate fell by 0.75%.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the market for ammonium phosphate was mainly weakly consolidated, with a slight decrease in prices. The price of raw material sulfur has stabilized at a high level, and there is still support on the cost side. The downstream compound fertilizer procurement intention is weak, the market demand is weak, and there is mainly a need for replenishment, resulting in limited new orders in the market. As of August 14th, the market price of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei region is around 4350-4450 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 4400-4500 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan region it is around 4300-4350 yuan/ton.
In terms of raw material sulfur. This week, sulfur prices have adjusted narrowly, and market supply and demand have remained stable. Downstream demand for replenishment is urgent, and market trading is cautious with a strong wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market price will mainly operate at a high consolidation level.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that the market trend of ammonium phosphate has been narrowly declining recently. Raw materials are running at a high level, and costs are still supported, but downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak. It is expected that the short-term market for ammonium phosphate will mainly experience a narrow consolidation and operation.

1、 Price trend

The overall price of baking soda has fallen this month, with an average market price of 1217.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and around 1205 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.83%. On July 30th, the baking soda index was 79.98, a decrease of 0.33 points from yesterday, a decrease of 66.09% from the cycle high of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 2.34% from the lowest point of 78.15 points on January 15th, 2026. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
The product analysis system shows that baking soda is operating in a weak consolidation trend, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is operating steadily, with a factory price of 1100-1200 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1150-1250 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Raw materials: According to monitoring data, the price of soda ash decreased in July. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1130 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.65% and a decrease of 15.51% compared to the same period last year.
Analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been weak and consolidating recently. The upstream raw material soda ash has been consolidating overall in April, while downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently. The demand enthusiasm is average, and there is a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.