1、 Price trend
In April 2020, the ethanol market reached a new high. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of the ethanol market at the beginning of the month was 5262 yuan / ton, and the price of the domestic ethanol market at the end of the month was 5587 yuan / ton, up 6.18% in the month, up 4.96% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Product: under the influence of increased export demand, the market prices of ethanol producers in various regions have risen this month. The alcohol market in East China is up, the price of goods delivered to the northeast is up, the freight is up, and the price is up with the increase of export volume; the alcohol price in Shandong is up, the export situation is good, the quotation of enterprises is high, and the vehicles are hard to find, so the price is high; the inventory of enterprises is not high, the water free shipment is good, and the vehicles are queuing up for loading; the Jilin jade in Northeast China The rice ethanol market is high, the enterprise inventory is not high, and the low price is not signed; the raw material price in Heilongjiang region is high, the order delivery of large factories is close to the end, and the enterprise quotation is increased; the ethanol market price in South China region is rising steadily, the market demand for 75 degree alcohol is not obvious at the beginning of this month, and the market price changes little. In the middle of each month, the export orders in Guangdong region are obviously increased, and the market transaction is acceptable Because of the low supply of goods in Guangdong market, most of the traders turn to the molasses ethanol enterprises in Guangxi, thus increasing the price of molasses ethanol in Guangxi. The price of raw material molasses remains high, and the price of molasses reaches 1200 yuan / ton. Not only is the raw material of molasses tense, but also the diversity of molasses downstream leads to the current high price, and the production cost of South China molasses ethanol production enterprises is still high.
Logistics: the logistics price continues to rise this month, mainly reflected in the price sent from the northeast to all parts of the country. Take the price sent from Heilongjiang to Shandong as an example, the increase is 120 yuan / ton. In the early stage, a large number of vehicles were sent to all parts of the country after the logistics was expropriated under the centralized delivery of large northeast factories. In the short term, vehicles in the Northeast are hard to find, and the freight continues to rise. In the late of the month, the middlemen or terminals are down After the 5.1 holiday, the tour began to collect fees and actively prepare goods. The vehicles continued to be expropriated and the freight rate remained high. At present, it has returned to the normal price in the normal period of high-speed charging in 2019.
Industry chain: in terms of raw materials, corn: the price of corn in China is generally stable, the number of vehicles in deep processing in North China is increasing, and that in Shandong is more than 400, which is significantly higher than before, and the price is basically stable. Due to the impact of high-speed charging after the labor day, some auto traders control This is to try to sell some corn before the high-speed charging, so the price rise of corn in these two days is restrained. However, after the freight returns to the original price, the price rise of corn has certain power and the transportation cost increases. It is expected that traders will be more reluctant to sell, and the grain supply in the market will be in short supply at different stages. However, with the coming of May, it is expected that the market will look forward to the temporary storage corn auction Selling news should be settled. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the temporary storage corn auction.
Ethyl acetate: in April, the domestic ethyl acetate Market increased by 450-550 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the month, the situation of market supply exceeding demand is hard to be alleviated, and the market fluctuates after passively falling to the low point. However, after the Qingming Festival, the mainstream manufacturers in Shandong Province are supported by the digestion and inventory of South China’s cargo, which eases the situation of their own supply exceeding demand. Moreover, the ethyl acetate plant of Shandong Yankuang mine stops after the Qingming Festival, and the market supply is slightly stepped up, the raw acetic acid low point continues to rise, and the ethyl acetate Market Supply and success Under the support of this double positive, the market transaction price is gradually higher. In the middle of the month, the market benefits gradually spread, and the downstream is rational in the purchase of ethyl acetate. Although the raw material acetic acid is still rising, the later rise of ethyl acetate is limited, and the market is gradually passive and slightly rising. Near the end of the month, the atmosphere in all aspects of the market turns weak. Although the supplier intends to continue to increase, there is no obvious pre holiday stock in the downstream, and the market is in a passive high stalemate. In the later stage, the trend of raw material acetic acid is weak, and the ethanol market is relatively strong. In the case of shutdown of Jiangsu Thorpe ethyl acetate plant, it is expected that the domestic ethyl acetate Market will fluctuate in a high level in the short term.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in April 2020, there are 39 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 26 kinds of commodities with an increase rate of more than 5%, accounting for 29.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities with an increase rate are acetone (77.02%), acrylic acid (21.76%) and hydrogenated benzene (20.86%). There are 45 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 21 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 23.6% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are ethylene (- 31.64%), butadiene (- 24.14%) and hydrochloric acid (- 22.37%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.37%.
3、 Future forecast
At the end of goods preparation before the festival, the raw materials are on the verge of being stored and auctioned, waiting for the price to be finally settled. However, with the opening of the import window, the price of corn in the later stage will be reduced, the order quantity of large factories in the factory will be acceptable, the inventory of enterprises will be kept at a low level in the short term, Dongfeng has a start-up plan, and a small amount of ethanol will be released in the enterprises with production change; the East China side has implemented The price of cassava will remain firm and upward, the cassava ethanol production enterprises will maintain profit production, the enthusiasm of purchasing raw materials will increase, and the downstream ethyl acetate will maintain just need to purchase. Under the influence of high-speed charges after May 6, the price of delivery to East China will be higher if there is no price reduction in logistics. With the arrival of liquor off-season in Henan, when the order is executed After completion, it is not ruled out that there may be weak consolidation; in South China, the shipment continued in May, but at present, there are many export orders, and the increase of daily chemical consumption is expected to maintain a high market in the short term. Business alcohol analysts predict that the short-term ethanol market price stability or the possibility of upward.