In June, the domestic bisphenol A market continued to weaken, and the focus of spot prices steadily shifted downwards, presenting an overall downward trend of weak supply and demand and cost loss. During the month, market trading was sluggish, manufacturers faced significant pressure to ship, industry profit margins continued to shrink, and terminal demand follow-up was weak. The market’s pessimistic sentiment persisted throughout the month.
The loosening of cost support is an important factor in the downward trend of bisphenol A. The weak trend of international crude oil prices in June, coupled with the easing of the situation in the Middle East, put overall pressure on commodities, driving down the prices of chemical raw materials. The spot prices of core raw materials phenol and acetone continue to decline, and the pure benzene market also maintains low volatility, completely weakening the cost bottom of bisphenol A. The significant decrease in raw material prices has released room for product price reductions, and the continuous decline in production costs for enterprises has further forced the market price of bisphenol A to fall accordingly.

The pattern of loose excess supply continues to intensify, and the market is weak. With the concentrated restart of maintenance facilities in the phenol ketone industry and the continuous release of new production capacity, the overall operating rate of bisphenol A in China remains high, and the market supply is sufficient. At the same time, the supply of imported goods has been replenished, and the market circulation of goods has further increased. The inventory pressure in the industry continues to rise, and manufacturers actively offer discounts to reduce inventory, intensifying market price competition.
The weak terminal demand is the core factor dragging down the market. In June, the downstream epoxy resin and PC industries entered the traditional consumption off-season, and the demand for terminal fields such as building materials, coatings, and wind power continued to be sluggish, with insufficient new order growth. Downstream enterprises mainly consume existing inventory and only make small purchases as needed, without centralized stocking operations. The market demand support is seriously insufficient, and the problem of supply-demand mismatch is becoming increasingly prominent.
Overall, the bisphenol A market continued to decline in June due to the triple negative pressure of cost, supply, and demand. The core contradiction of short-term industry oversupply is difficult to alleviate, and inventory pressure still exists. It is expected that the bisphenol A market will continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term, and prices are likely to remain low.

Acetic anhydride market weakly declines in June

According to data, the price of acetic anhydride fell in June. As of June 29th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5312.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.5 yuan/ton or 0.70% from the June 1st price of 5350 yuan/ton.
The acetic anhydride market experienced a weak downward trend in June. On the supply side, the maintenance equipment for acetic anhydride has been restored, and the market supply is sufficient. However, downstream demand is in the off-season, and the enthusiasm for entering the market for purchasing is not high. The market trading atmosphere is weak. Although the price of raw material acetic acid has rebounded, the boost to the acetic anhydride market is average. The cost pressure has increased, and the demand for enterprise shipments has increased. Some manufacturers have lowered their inventory prices, resulting in a downward trend in the acetic anhydride market this month.
The acetic acid market fell first and then rose in June
In June, the price of acetic acid increased from 3023.33 yuan/ton to 3056.67 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 1.10%. On the supply side, the main factories in Shandong region have temporarily stopped production, coupled with the current acetic acid operating rate of less than 80%, the price of acetic acid has stopped falling and rebounded. The overall inventory pressure of acetic acid enterprises is not high during the month, and downstream procurement needs are following up. The acetic acid market is stable and strong. The rise in raw material prices has squeezed downstream acetic anhydride profits.
Future prospects
Business analysts believe that the raw material acetic acid is running steadily, with average cost support. The acetic anhydride market has strong supply and weak demand, and the confidence of industry players is insufficient. Short term prices are still weak, and the fundamentals of the acetic anhydride market are not good. It is expected that the acetic anhydride market will be weak and consolidate in the future. The price should pay attention to changes in upstream prices and downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

The average market price of baking soda at the beginning of the week was 1222.5 yuan/ton, and the average market price of baking soda over the weekend was 1220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2% and a 4.09% decrease compared to the same period last year. On June 25th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 81.14, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 65.60% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 3.83% from the lowest point of 78.15 points on January 15, 2026. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the product analysis system, the baking soda market is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is running weakly, with a factory price of 1080-1200 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1100-1200 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been running weakly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 1166 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 1156 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% and 9.97% compared to the same period last year. Downstream buyers tend to purchase on demand.
Analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, and the upstream raw material soda ash has also been consolidating recently. However, downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, and demand enthusiasm for baking soda is still acceptable. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly consolidate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

In the first half of June, the industrial grade dimethyl carbonate market showed an overall pattern of low and narrow fluctuations, with a slight and moderate upward trend, without significant fluctuations. As of June 12th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 3750 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.35% from the beginning of the month.

fundamental analysis
Cost aspect: Dual raw materials support the bottom, leading the market to stabilize first and then rise
The centralized maintenance of the equipment led to a 3.10% increase in epoxy propane, while the elasticity of methanol’s increase was much greater than that of epoxy propane. The highest increase in the middle of the month was close to 9%, and after a temporary surge, it slightly fell back, but overall it maintained a significant increase; The synchronous and significant upward movement of the two major raw materials has formed a dual bottom support on the cost side, which is the core bullish factor for the rebound of dimethyl carbonate this month; However, downstream absorption is insufficient, and the price increase of dimethyl carbonate is significantly weaker than that of raw materials, resulting in only a slight narrowing of industry losses.
Supply side: Local tightness, slight decline in production
Some small and medium-sized devices have reduced their load and undergone short-term shutdown maintenance, resulting in a slight decrease in the industry average operating rate; Several medium-sized facilities in the main production area of Shandong take turns for maintenance, resulting in a contraction of regional spot circulation and some traders being reluctant to sell and raise prices; Large integrated chemical plants maintain full production, with only a temporary contraction in overall supply and no sustained logic of significant production cuts. The factory has medium inventory, and the manufacturer mainly arranges inventory according to demand, without high accumulation pressure.
Demand side: Strong demand support, insufficient increment, no centralized replenishment
The production capacity utilization rate of polycarbonate PC industry remains high, but the growth of orders for terminal home appliances and automotive lightweighting has slowed down. The procurement strategy of enterprises is extremely cautious, and they buy in small quantities at low prices. The willingness to purchase in bulk is weak, which has limited impact on the driving force of dimethyl carbonate. In terms of traditional solvents for coatings, adhesives, and pesticides, the demand for environmentally friendly alternatives remains stable without seasonal outbreaks; The off-season characteristics of traditional chemical industry are evident, with stable downstream production and only providing basic and essential support, without incremental elasticity.
Market forecast:
The cost of raw materials such as epichlorohydrin and methanol remains high, and it is difficult to restart the maintenance equipment in the short term, resulting in high prices from manufacturers; Downstream demand follows up on dips and inventory continues to be moderately reduced; However, there is no centralized replenishment in the downstream, and the overall demand increment is limited. The pattern of overcapacity in the entire industry has not been reversed; High level trading is weak, and gains are prone to quickly sell back; Short term low volatility of dimethyl carbonate is expected to be slightly stronger, making it difficult to see a trend of significant increase

The market for polyaluminum chloride remained stable in May, with China’s solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market reporting around 1811.67 yuan/ton on the 31st, which remained stable compared to the price on the 1st.

In the production cost of polyaluminum chloride, raw materials such as alumina and hydrochloric acid account for over 60%, and the upstream electrolytic aluminum market fluctuated downward in May; The hydrochloric acid market has experienced periodic price increases due to adjustments in the operating rate of chlor alkali enterprises, which has provided cost support for the overall price of polyaluminum chloride. However, the pressure of oversupply caused by the concentrated production of new alumina production capacity has suppressed the potential for raw material price increases.
May is the traditional off-season for the water treatment industry, with low operating rates for municipal and industrial sewage treatment projects. In addition, downstream industries such as chemical and paper production are generally operating steadily, and the procurement of polyaluminum chloride is mainly based on urgent needs replenishment. The market lacks centralized procurement or unexpected incremental demand, making it difficult to form a pulling force for price increases.
Market forecast: Upstream raw material costs will still be supported in June, and environmental control measures will continue to constrain the production capacity of small and medium-sized enterprises, making it difficult for the supply side to see significant increases; As June enters the traditional peak season of the water treatment industry, there is an expectation of marginal improvement in downstream demand, which will provide some support for prices. The continuous release of new alumina production capacity limits the room for rising raw material costs; The pattern of overcapacity in the industry has not fundamentally changed, market competition still exists, and the motivation for enterprises to actively raise prices is insufficient. It is expected that polyaluminum chloride will continue to operate steadily in June.

1、 Price trend

This week, the aniline market has accelerated its decline. On May 25th, the price of aniline in the market was 11062 yuan/ton, and on May 29th, it was 10262 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.23% during the week and an increase of 42.04% compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
This week, the aniline market experienced a wide decline, with two reductions of 400 yuan/ton each. On the one hand, due to the decline in raw material prices, cost support has weakened; On the other hand, due to the influence of its own supply and demand, the demand performance is sluggish, prices are falling, and downstream companies are entering the market at a low price, which is bearish for the future.
Cost aspect: Recently, the pure benzene market has been affected by the decline in crude oil prices, and the market mentality is weak. In addition, downstream companies are still losing money, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is not high. On May 29th, the listing price of pure benzene sold by Sinopec Chemical was lowered by 300 yuan/ton today, and the Yangtze River resources of the East China, North China, South China, and Central China branches were all executed at 7700 yuan/ton. The price reduction of mainstream refineries has driven down the price of pure benzene again.
3、 Future expectations
The current market demand for aniline is flat, and the prices of raw materials have been lowered again. In addition, with weak demand, it is expected that the price of aniline will continue to decline.

The price of ethylene glycol will drop significantly in May 2026. As of May 22, the average price of the domestic oil to ethylene glycol market was 4903.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.88% compared to the average price of 5155 yuan/ton on April 30.

In terms of port ethylene glycol, as of the 22nd, the basis price of port ethylene glycol spot contracts (starting from 500 tons) fluctuates with the market. The basis price of spot contracts this week runs within the range of+90 to+95. As of the close, the basis price of contracts in May is+100 to+102, the basis price of contracts next week (before 6.05) is+110 to+115, and the basis price of contracts in June is+135 to+137.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol for whole vehicle manufacturers is 4350-4450 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of May 21st, the negotiated landed price of Chinese ship cargo was around 623 US dollars/ton, and the negotiated landed price of Southeast Asian ship cargo was around 715 US dollars/ton.
Changes in Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory in May 2026:
On May 21, 2026, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 683000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons compared to the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China on May 18, which was 678000 tons; Compared to April 30th, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 772400 tons, a decrease of 89400 tons in inventory; Compared to March 30th, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 953000 tons, a decrease of 270000 tons in inventory.
Analysis of the reasons for the price reduction of ethylene glycol on May 22, 2026:
On May 22, 2026, there was a double kill in the ethylene glycol futures market, with the main contract for ethylene glycol falling sharply, closing at 4587 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 3.19%, and hitting a low of 4483 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol at the port fell by 3.88% daily, and the spot price of ethylene glycol for domestic car delivery fell by 2.1% daily. This decline is a concentrated outbreak of cost collapse, supply-demand imbalance, and emotional resonance of funds, with the core triggering factor being the sudden news of the US Iran agreement draft being reached.
1、 Cost side: The disappearance of geopolitical premiums and the sharp drop in crude oil prices have led to the collapse of support
The sudden news directly triggered a drop in oil prices. On the early morning of May 22nd Beijing time, the media quoted Arab satellite television as saying that the United States and Iran had reached an agreement on the final draft of the agreement under the mediation of Pakistan, and the relevant content is expected to be announced within a few hours. With the expectation of “easing Middle East geopolitical risks and the return of Iranian crude oil to the market”, Brent crude oil quickly plunged from around $109 per barrel, with a intraday decline of over 6%. WTI crude oil fell below the $100 mark, directly driving the collapse of cost support for ethylene glycol.
The cost of producing ethylene glycol from oil is rapidly decreasing. Ethylene glycol is highly correlated with crude oil, and the sharp drop in oil prices has directly compressed the cost space for producing ethylene glycol from oil. The “risk premium” that was previously pushed up due to geopolitical conflicts has been quickly squeezed out, and the overall price center of the industrial chain has shifted downwards.
The cost of coal production is weakening synchronously, and the operating rate remains high. Domestic thermal coal prices remain stable and weak, with coal to ethylene glycol profits recovering and plant operating rates maintaining above 60%, further lowering the bottom line of spot costs.

2、 Supply side: Domestic high construction+revised import expectations supply pressure still exists
Domestic coal to ethylene glycol supply continues to increase. In May, the domestic coal to ethylene glycol production rate remained high, and the supply of goods was sufficient, creating sustained supply pressure on the market.
The expected reduction in imports is lagging behind, and there is still a buffer for short-term arrivals. Although the maintenance of multiple facilities in the Middle East has led to a decline in the expected import volume from May to June, the short-term arrival rhythm has not been fully reflected, and the market has partially advanced the pricing of “import reduction”, which has not formed an immediate supply gap.
Although the port inventory has been reduced, the absolute quantity is still relatively high. Although the inventory in the main ports of East China is in a continuous destocking channel, it is still at a moderate level in recent years, and its support for prices is limited.
3、 Demand side: Polyester off-season+terminal weakness, negative feedback, continuous fermentation
The operating rate of polyester has declined year-on-year, and the procurement of essential goods has shrunk. The average operating rate of domestic polyester factories in May was only 75% -77%, a year-on-year decrease of 3-5 percentage points, and the demand for essential purchases of ethylene glycol significantly shrank.
The terminal weaving orders are bleak, and there is a serious backlog of inventory. The operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is only 66%, with orders mainly consisting of small orders and fast response orders. The terminal inventory is high, and polyester factories actively reduce negative loads, forming a negative feedback loop of “weak demand → negative load reduction → less procurement → price decline”.
Raw material inventory has dropped to a low level, and the market has no intention of stockpiling. The raw material stocking days of the polyester factory are only 7.5 days, which is the lowest level in the same period of the past three years. It only maintains essential procurement and lacks purchasing support in terms of price.
4、 Funds and Emotions: High level profit taking+Break level stop loss, amplified decline
The early increase was too large, and profit taking orders were concentrated and left the market. Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East from March to April, the main contract for ethylene glycol accumulated a large amount of profit taking. After May, with the expectation of geopolitical easing heating up, funds concentrated on profit taking.
Key support breaking triggers programmed stop loss. On May 22nd, the main contract fell below the key support level of 4600 yuan/ton, triggering a large number of programmed trading stop loss orders. Short selling forces were concentrated and released, amplifying the intraday decline.
Market expectations have turned pessimistic, with strong buying and wait-and-see sentiment. Due to weak terminal demand and loose cost support, the market’s expectations for the traditional off-season in June and July continue to deteriorate. Most traders and downstream factories remain cautious and unwilling to take the initiative to accept orders.

From May 11th to 15th, the domestic aggregated MDI market prices stopped falling and rose, with an average price of 18933 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. On May 15th, the average price was 19433 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.64% during the week and a year-on-year increase of 17.42%. Frequent reports of major factory maintenance within the week have boosted market confidence. Some traders have raised their prices and lowered their prices. Overseas orders remain stable, while domestic demand is mainly driven by essential needs, with limited incremental demand.
Supply side: The MDI units with a production capacity of 130000 tons/year and 70000 tons/year in Tosa, Japan, are scheduled to start shutdown and maintenance at the end of April, with an expected duration of about 40 days. The 300000 ton/year MDI unit at a factory in Shanghai was shut down for maintenance on May 11th, with an expected duration of about a month, and the supply side remains tight; The company’s 250000 ton/year MDI plant located in South Korea is operating at low load.

On the cost side: This week, the pure benzene market has weakened and fallen, and the overall supply and demand expectations for pure benzene are still tight. Port inventories continue to decline. At present, there are still significant differences between the United States and Iran on the content of the peace talks, geopolitical fluctuations, short-term strong oil prices, and support for pure benzene reserves. However, due to the drag of demand, the upward trend is weak, and we are paying attention to the dynamics of the US Iran situation.
Demand side: Downstream demand is average, with an increase in inquiries, but actual transactions are limited.
Future forecast: The overall supply of the aggregated MDI market is tight, and domestic demand support is average. We will closely monitor downstream feedback and expect the aggregated MDI market to consolidate and operate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda has been consolidating this month. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 1240 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 1237.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%. On April 29th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 81.97, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 65.24% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 4.89% from the lowest point of 78.15 points on January 15, 2026. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the baking soda market is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is operating steadily, with a factory price of 1100-1200 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1150-1250 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of soda ash increased in April. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 1212 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 1222 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.83% and a decrease of 13.21% compared to the same period last year.
According to analysts from Business Society, the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently. The upstream raw material soda ash has been consolidating overall in April, while downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently. The demand enthusiasm is average, and there is a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that baking soda prices will mainly fluctuate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

The calcium carbide market continued to decline after a slight rebound in the first half of April, with a significant drop in market prices. The national benchmark price fell from 2724 yuan/ton on April 1st to 2324 yuan/ton on April 28th, with a monthly decline of 14.68%, and the price fell back to the lowest level of the year.

The decline is mainly due to three aspects: on the supply side, the concentrated resumption of production and load reduction devices in the early stage, the high operating rate of the industry, the accumulation of inventory due to sufficient supply, and the strong willingness of enterprises to lower prices and ship goods; On the demand side, the downstream PVC and BDO industries have entered the spring maintenance cycle, with a decrease in daily consumption of calcium carbide and a shift towards just in demand procurement. In addition, PVC prices have fallen synchronously, and industry losses have expanded, leading to increased pressure on downstream prices; On the cost side, the price of upstream raw material blue charcoal has remained stable but declined, and the production cost of calcium carbide has decreased, further opening up downward space.
Prediction of low-level operation in the calcium carbide market in May. As of the end of April, the price of calcium carbide has fallen to near the cost line of some enterprises, with a slowing down trend and a tendency to stabilize, and the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Based on supply and demand as well as cost factors, the calcium carbide market will mainly operate at a low level in May. In the short term, in early May, the main production areas of Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi entered a period of power and equipment maintenance, easing supply pressure. Before the May Day holiday, a small amount of downstream stocking demand and low prices of blue charcoal supported the bottom, which will curb further price declines. However, the PVC market is still weak, inventory has not been fully depleted, and prices are unlikely to rebound significantly, with a narrow range of fluctuation between 2300-2450 yuan/ton. In the medium term, strict control of production capacity and environmental constraints will maintain stable supply, but the weak demand for PVC is difficult to improve quickly. The cost and policy constraints will form a range, and the overall situation will still maintain a low-level oscillation bottoming out trend, making it difficult to see significant fluctuations.