Market analysis for this week

This week, the magnesium ingot market remained stable and stable, with a slight increase in magnesium ingot prices at the beginning of the week, an increase of about 200 yuan/ton. However, in the middle and later stages of the week, there was little overall change in the market, and the downstream high price delivery capacity was insufficient, resulting in a stalemate in the market transaction atmosphere. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 19th, the average price of magnesium ingots in the domestic market was 18733.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.08% compared to the previous week.

In terms of supply and demand

The number of factories reducing production and shutting down has increased, leading to a decrease in inventory pressure and a firm quotation from manufacturers. But currently, the market is mainly focused on purchasing for essential needs. At the beginning of the week, some downstream users made moderate purchases due to the sentiment of “buying up but not buying down”. Downstream users followed up cautiously in the middle and later stages of the week, although there were a small number of transactions, the main focus was still on essential needs users.

In terms of raw materials

This week, the market quotation for ferrosilicon in Ningxia was 6300-6400 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from last week. There is not much inventory in the factory, and some production orders are mainly scheduled. Recently, bidding prices have been introduced to stop the decline and increase. With the increasing positive information, industry confidence has been significantly boosted, and there is a strong reluctance to sell, leading to an increase in market quotations.

This week, the national blue charcoal market operated steadily with a strong bias. Against the backdrop of high cost pressures and low market inventories, some blue charcoal enterprises increased prices by 20-80 yuan/ton. As of April 19th, the mainstream prices of small and medium-sized materials in the Shenmu market were 740-950 yuan/ton, and the coke surface was 580-650 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of small and medium-sized materials in the Fugu market is 720-900 yuan/ton, and the coke surface is 620-700 yuan/ton.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the magnesium ingot market is showing a stable and positive trend, with an increase in market inquiry enthusiasm. However, the actual downstream demand has not significantly improved. After the continuous increase in magnesium prices, downstream users have insufficient acceptance of high prices. However, the silicon iron market on the raw material side is gradually rising, and the cost support for magnesium ingots is strengthening, while manufacturers maintain a price mentality. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic magnesium ingot market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # electrolytic manganese market operated weakly this week (April 15th to April 22nd), with market prices in the East China region dropping 0.37% to 13500 yuan/ton on April 22nd.

In terms of manganese ore: This week, the Tianjin Port manganese ore market saw a significant increase, with manganese ore prices continuing to rise near the holiday, and transactions showing some improvement. In terms of prices, South African semi carbonates were sold at 37.5-38 yuan/ton, South African high-speed railways were sold at 28.5 yuan/ton, Gabon at 40.5-41 yuan/ton, and Australia at 42-42.5 yuan/ton. This week, the sentiment of price support in the Qinzhou Port manganese ore market dominated, with some miners holding back and reluctant to sell. Due to limited demand in the south, the mid week increase was relatively flat. Semi carbonated carbon costs 35.5-36 yuan/ton, Australia 40 yuan/ton, Gabon 39 yuan/ton, South Africa high-speed rail 29-29.3 yuan/ton.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, it can be seen that the recent trend of the electrolytic manganese market is relatively weak.

This week, the electrolytic manganese market continued to operate steadily with a weak trend. The mainstream price in the market this week was concentrated between 12000 to 12100 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from last week’s price. Under the mentality of supply-demand competition, the recent fluctuations in the spot market have been limited. In terms of supply, the recent changes in operating rates have been limited, and the supply is relatively stable. Currently, prices are close to the cost line, and production enterprises have average enthusiasm for shipping, with a strong attitude of price support. In terms of demand, downstream enterprises replenish their inventory as needed. As the May Day holiday approaches, most downstream enterprises have pre holiday stocking needs, but overall they tend to have a strong demand. The recent performance of steel recruitment has been weak, with most of the steel recruitment prices currently introduced falling, dragging down market sentiment, and the spot market leaning towards wait-and-see. Under the mentality of supply-demand competition in the future market, it is expected that the electrolytic manganese market will continue to operate weakly in the short term due to the lack of demand support, and the downward space is limited due to cost support.

Related data:

This week, the silicon and manganese market has been fluctuating strongly, and the current increase in spot prices of silicon and manganese still does not match the speed of increase in raw material prices. The first round of increase in coke prices has started this week, with a cumulative increase of 100-110 yuan/ton, and the cost of silicon and manganese has increased by 90 yuan/ton. At the same time, various varieties of manganese ore have shown different ranges of increase, and there is a strong reluctance to sell in mines. High priced ore in the market continues to increase. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 5850-5950 yuan/ton on April 19th, an increase of about 150 yuan/ton compared to last week.

Steel recruitment situation:

The bidding price of Jiangsu Shagang Metal Manganese Ingots, including tax, is priced at 12750 yuan/ton for factory acceptance, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from March. Quantity: to be determined. Delivery date: to be determined.

The bidding price for metal manganese ingots at Baowu Egang in April 2024, including taxes, was priced at 12600 yuan/ton upon acceptance, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from March. The quantity is 100 tons, and the delivery date is April 30, 2024.

Industry data:

On April 21st, the base metal index was 1293 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 19.99% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 101.40% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On April 21st, the non-ferrous index was at 1204 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 21.72% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 98.35% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 16th week of 2024 (4.15-4.19), there were a total of 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were tin (4.79%), copper (3.62%), and lead (2.09%). There are a total of 8 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are aluminum (-1.93%), dysprosium oxide (-1.48%), and cobalt (-1.25%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.32%.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the NMP market has remained stable this week. On April 15th, the average price of NMP was 11766 yuan/ton, and on April 19th, the average price of NMP was 11766 yuan/ton, with no fluctuations during the cycle.

2、 Analysis and Review

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the NMP market remained weak this week, with mainstream retail prices in the domestic electronic grade NMP market reaching 11500-12000 yuan/ton as of Friday. The raw material end BDO experienced a narrow decline this week, with weak market performance and a stalemate in consolidation operations. The NMP market quotation is temporarily stable, and there is no significant improvement in the downstream demand market. Trading is weak, and the trading atmosphere is relatively weak.

As of April 19th, the mainstream prices of NMP bulk water in different regions of China are as follows:

Region/ April 19th

East China region/ 11500-12000 yuan/ton

Central China region/ 11500-11800 yuan/ton

Southwest region/ 11800-12000 yuan/ton

Raw materials: The BDO market has experienced a narrow decline. From April 15th to 19th, the average domestic BDO price dropped from 9100 yuan/ton to 9072 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.31% during the cycle.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to NMP analysts from Business Society, the current willingness of NMP factories to maintain prices is evident. With no significant changes in raw materials and demand, it is expected that the NMP market will maintain a low and stable trend.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of April 15, 2024, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 8016 yuan/ton. Compared with April 1, 2024 (reference price of butanone was 8033 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21%.

In early April, the overall performance of the domestic butanone market fluctuated narrowly with a slight decline. At the beginning of April, the domestic butanone market remained stable and operated steadily. After returning from the Qingming Festival, the butanone market has been fluctuating for 7 days. In some regions, the shipment of butanone in the market is average, but due to the increased inventory pressure after the festival, the shipment has been narrowly discounted. On the 8th, the butanone market experienced a slight correction, with an adjustment range of 50-100 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the overall consolidation and operation of the butanone market were the main focus. As of April 15th, the domestic market price of butanone is around 7900-8400 yuan/ton.

Fundamental analysis

In terms of supply: Currently, some of the early parking devices in the butanone field have been repaired and started operation. In the later stage, the overall supply of the butanone market may increase, but some other devices also have parking and maintenance plans in the future. Therefore, it is expected that the production increment of the butanone market is limited in the short term.

In terms of demand: Currently, in the downstream slurry of butanone, the operation of large factories is relatively stable, and the demand for raw materials is stable. Some small and medium-sized factories have maintained low operation due to insufficient demand orders. In terms of adhesives, the overall order volume in the silicone adhesive market is average, while the downstream raw adhesive market is weak, putting pressure on overall shipments. In the short term, the positive support provided by bottom-up demand for butanone is not significant.

In terms of exports, domestic demand provides limited support for butanone, therefore, the export market will also be the focus of attention for the future butanone market. It is rumored that there may be maintenance plans for Japanese butanone plants in the second quarter, and the export volume of domestic butanone may increase. The boost in exports can greatly drive the domestic butanone market.

Market analysis of butanone

At present, the trading atmosphere on the butanone site is light, and downstream users are mainly on demand for procurement, with limited incremental new orders on the site. Overall, the Butanone Data Analyst from Business Society believes that in the later stage, if the positive effects on the export of Butanone can be gradually released, there is still a slight upward momentum in the Butanone market. However, the support from domestic demand for the Butanone market is generally average, and the overall upward trend of the Butanone market is limited. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand news.

The antimony ingot market in East China remained stable from April 8th to April 15th, 2024, with prices remaining stable at 91250 yuan/ton this week.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has not fluctuated much recently.

This week’s European strategic small metal antimony price situation (unit: USD/ton)

Variety/ April 8th/ April 15th/ Rise and fall

European small metal antimony/ 12850./12950./+100

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has slightly increased, reaching $12950/ton as of April 15th, with an increase of $100/ton.

This week, the antimony ingot market continued to maintain a temporary stable operation. From the perspective of supply, smelting enterprises are currently maintaining normal production. The supply of antimony ingots is relatively stable, but the mining end still maintains a tight pattern. As a result, smelters still have a strong mentality of price support, and the market supply is tight. In terms of demand, downstream industries such as antimony oxide have shown a relatively stable trend in recent times. Enterprises are replenishing their inventory according to demand and maintaining essential procurement. As the May Day holiday approaches, it is expected that there will be a wave of stocking demand in the downstream before the holiday. Driven by the rebound in European antimony ingot prices, market sentiment has slightly improved. In the future, Business Society believes that the demand for downstream holiday restocking will drive a brief rise in the market, and the market will maintain a stable, medium to strong trend in the near future. In the future, the focus will be on the consumption situation of the photovoltaic industry and the impact of environmental policies on the market.

This week, the antimony oxide market remained temporarily stable, while the spot market was weak. Downstream demand replenishment was maintained, and market prices were affected by the stability of the antimony ingot market, with most remaining temporarily stable.

Industry data:

On April 14th, the base metal index was 1269 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 21.47% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 97.66% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On April 14th, the non-ferrous index was 1186 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 22.89% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 95.39% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 15th week of 2024 (4.8-4.12), there were a total of 11 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there were 2 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were tin (5.64%), zinc (5.22%), and silver (4.32%). There are a total of 9 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are dysprosium oxide (-1.96%), praseodymium metal (-1.89%), and praseodymium neodymium oxide (-1.28%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.64%.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of dichloroethane in China on April 12th was 2726 yuan/ton, and on April 1st, the average market price of dichloroethane in China was 2760 yuan/ton. The price of dichloroethane decreased by 1.21% within the month.

2、 Analysis and Review

In early April, the dichloroethane market continued its downward trend in late March, with a narrow decline. The trading atmosphere in the market was still good, and downstream procurement weakened, with primary demand procurement.

Cost wise: In early April, the Asian ethylene market remained stable with an average CFR price of $930 per ton in Northeast Asia. The domestic ethylene quotation in East China is 7500 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the beginning of the month.

Demand side: The domestic PVC market lacks domestic demand power, and the downstream real estate industry is still in a weak state with high inventory. At present, the quotation for ethylene based PVC in the East China region is 6000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, and the market continues to fluctuate at a low level.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s dichloroethane analyst believes that the cost side market is stable, and the demand side is weak, making it difficult to drive the dichloroethane market. It is expected that the price of dichloroethane will continue to be weak in the near future.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of April 11, 2024, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was 14500 yuan/ton. Compared with April 1 (organic silicon DMC reference was 15260 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.98%.

From the data detection chart of the organic silicon DMC products of the Business Society, it can be seen that in early April, the domestic organic silicon DMC market showed a weak decline. After the Qingming Festival, the decline in the organic silicon DMC market has not stopped, and the overall negotiation focus of organic silicon DMC continues to move towards a low level. As of April 11th, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference is around 14000-15000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 3.72% in the five days after the festival.

Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of demand: Since April, there has been no significant improvement in downstream demand for organic silicon DMC. After the holiday, the trading atmosphere on the organic silicon DMC site remains weak, and downstream demand has not been boosted well. The demand side has dragged down the focus of the organic silicon DMC market and continued to decline.

On the supply side, there are relatively few new orders in the organic silicon DMC field, and the inquiry atmosphere on the field is light. The inventory of the organic silicon DMC factory continues to accumulate, and the overall supply pressure continues to rise, making it difficult for the supply side to provide effective support to the market.

In terms of cost: Currently, the metal silicon market on the raw material side is weak and declining, so the cost support for organic silicon DMC on the cost side continues to loosen.

Prediction of the future trend of organic silicon DMC market

At present, the demand for organic silicon DMC on the market remains cautious, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment and some concerns about future inventory. However, the current market price has continued to decline and has also dropped to a lower level. For downstream users who have already digested some inventory, appropriate bargain hunting and stocking orders may increase. The organic silicon DMC data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mainly undergo narrow adjustments, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of acetic acid has recently fallen. As of April 8th, 25% liquid sodium acetate in China was priced at 803 yuan per ton, a decrease of 24 yuan per ton from 82 yuan per ton at the beginning of the month.

From the perspective of raw materials, the overall price of soda ash has been weak since April. With the completion of orders in hand by alkali plants and poor follow-up of new orders, the price of soda ash has recently adjusted narrowly, resulting in a weak and stable market.

At present, the manufacturer’s inventory of raw material acetic acid is still available, with downstream rigid demand procurement being the main focus. The market stabilized in early April.

Analysts from Shengyishe Sodium Acetate Data believe that insufficient upstream support has led to a weak upward trend in sodium acetate prices in April. It is expected that the focus of the sodium acetate market will remain stable in the future, with narrow consolidation being the main focus.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the BOPP market price fluctuated and declined narrowly this week. As of April 6th, domestic producers and traders have reached 18 μ The mainstream quoted price of BOPP film for m is around 9583.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 0.26% from last week’s average price and about 0.26% from the beginning of the month’s average price.

quotations analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP has fluctuated and increased this month. The mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 7785.71 yuan/ton, an increase of about 0.28% compared to last week. The price of raw material PP has slightly increased, and the cost support of raw materials for BOPP prices is still ongoing.

Supply: The operating load rate of membrane enterprises is still at a relatively high level, about 53%. The supply side is sufficient, and the inventory pressure of membrane enterprises increases.

In terms of demand: Downstream enterprises mostly replenish essential goods, with less replenishment and low transaction volume. They tend to remain wait-and-see, with weak trading volume and weak market demand for price support

Future Market Forecast

The overall stability of upstream raw material prices is relatively strong, and the cost side still provides support for the market. However, downstream demand enterprises are mostly just in need of replenishment, and transactions are weak. It is expected that BOPP prices will experience narrow fluctuations and consolidation in the near future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic market price of ortho phthalic anhydride slightly decreased in March. As of the end of the month, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 7587.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.30% from the beginning of the month price of 7687.5 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.03%

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Supply side: Stable operation of the device and sufficient supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is very abundant, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is poor. In addition, the supply of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has slightly declined, which has affected the price of ortho phthalic anhydride slightly.

Cost side: Stable price of ortho benzene with acceptable cost support

In March, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene remained stable. As of the end of the month, the price of ortho benzene was 8100 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged from the beginning of the month at 8100 yuan/ton. The supply of ortho benzene was normal, and the operation of on-site facilities was stable. In the short term, the trend of crude oil prices declined, while the price of mixed xylene remained stable. The temporary stability of ortho benzene prices provided some cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the price decline of the phthalic anhydride market was limited.

On the demand side: The on-demand procurement market in the DOP market has significantly declined

In March, the price trend of downstream DOP market significantly declined, with a price of 10050 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a 14.69% decrease from the price of 11780 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Domestic DOP enterprises started operating generally, and domestic DOP supply was sufficient. However, plasticizer enterprises still suffered losses in profits, and downstream demand was poor. The mainstream price of DOP was 10000-10100 yuan/ton, and the downstream DOP price trend significantly decreased. For the poor procurement of phthalic anhydride, the domestic phthalic anhydride market price trend slightly declined.

Looking at the future market, the recent trend of crude oil prices is mainly fluctuating, while the price of ortho xylene is temporarily stable. At the end of the month, the downstream DOP market trend is rising. In addition, phthalic anhydride manufacturers have reported serious losses, and it is expected that the market price of ortho xylene may slightly increase in the future.