Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea mixed price first rose and then fell this week. The quotation first rose from 3061.67 yuan / ton on October 11 to 3091.67 yuan / ton on October 14, an increase of 0.98%, and then fell to 3058.33 yuan / ton on October 15, a decrease of 1.08%, a year-on-year increase of 81.32%. Overall, the urea market fell slightly this week, and the urea commodity index was 142.25 on October 15.

Cost support was strengthened, downstream demand was enhanced, and urea supply decreased

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea fell this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 3150 yuan / ton this weekend, up 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 3100 yuan / ton this weekend, up 30 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Guangzhou Bangyi urea quoted 3000 yuan / ton this weekend, down 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea rose sharply this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas rose sharply, and the quotation increased from 5783.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6810.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 17.75%, a year-on-year increase of 134.83% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal rose sharply. The quotation increased from 2045.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2327.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 13.81%, a year-on-year increase of 274.65% compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia increased slightly. The quotation increased from 5075.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5225.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.96%, a year-on-year increase of 63.28% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose sharply this week, from 17900.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 18700.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 4.47%.

From the perspective of demand: the demand increases, the agricultural demand begins to prepare fertilizer, the industrial demand rises, the demand for urea in the downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants increases, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains at a high level. Most of them follow up with the acquisition and use of an appropriate amount. In terms of supply, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period, the supply has decreased, and the daily output of urea is about 140000 tons. Internationally: China’s Urea Export began to be limited, or further pushed up the international urea price. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is increased, the urea supply is reduced, and the supply is in short supply.

Urea prices are bullish in the future

In late October, the domestic urea market rose slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that at present, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period, the supply is tight, the demand for autumn fertilizer will be opened, compound fertilizer plants and large traders begin to take goods, the industrial demand has increased, and the future market price may fluctuate slightly.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride fell this week. This week, the average price of mainstream factory quotation of domestic potassium chloride decreased from 3270.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2890.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 11.62%. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 50.13% year-on-year. Overall, the potassium chloride market fell this week, and the potassium chloride commodity index was 91.75 on October 15.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers fell this week: the factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend was 2890 yuan / ton, down 380 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Anhui kaimi’s potassium chloride distribution quotation is 3800 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Anhui Badou potassium chloride distribution quotation is 3800 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. The price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 3700-3900 yuan / ton, and that of 60% red particles is about 3700-3800 yuan / ton; The price of 62% Russian White potassium in border trade is about 3500 yuan / ton; The arrival price of 60% potassium in Qinghai is about 3270 yuan / ton. There is a tight supply of marketable potash fertilizer in China. Although the production enterprises are fully engaged in production, the operating rate is slightly low and the self-sufficiency rate is insufficient. It is said that the salt lake company may stop production for maintenance in November.

3、 Future forecast

The overall trend of potassium chloride Market in late October or high consolidation. The international demand for potash fertilizer is strong, but the domestic available supply is in short supply. Potassium chloride analysts of business society believe that the short-term potassium chloride market is dominated by high-level consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price rose sharply this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation was 74065 yuan / ton, up 5.9% from 69940 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 27.8% from the beginning of the week and 44.14% year-on-year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past three months, it has increased by 6 and decreased by 6. Recently, it has fallen more or less.

Macro aspect: in the second half of this week, crude oil hit new highs and the US dollar fell sharply, boosting metal prices.

Supply: in September 2021, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 406000 tons, with a month on month increase of 3.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 43.8%. From January to September 2021, the cumulative import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 4019000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5%, and the average price was 60400 yuan per ton, an increase of 37.9%. Local smelters in Jiangsu will continue to be affected by power rationing, and the capacity utilization rate will be maintained at about 50%

In terms of demand: power rationing in some main copper rod production areas in East and South China will affect the commencement. In September 2021, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises was 84.32%, an increase of 0.55% month on month. The operating rate of wire and cable enterprises is expected to be 82.32% in October.

LME copper inventories fell this week

Annual comparison chart of copper

According to the annual comparison chart of business society, the price of copper this year is higher than that in recent two years, and the price of copper was strong in October this year.

To sum up, the import of recycled copper dropped sharply, the social inventory fell, and the support below the copper price was strong. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products in September ended the downward trend, boosting the confidence of the copper market. Low inventory in copper market supports the current price. In the near future, it is expected that the short-term fluctuation of copper price is strong, mainly running.

After the festival, the domestic MIBK market went down in a narrow range, high and low ends coexisted after the festival, and then the offer went down. The reference offer was 22000-22500 yuan / ton, and the on-site high-end offer was 23000 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business society, the market offer was 23275 yuan / ton on October 8 and 22400 yuan / ton on October 13, with a market decline of 3.67%. Supported by the maintenance news in the later stage, the shippers mainly offer high prices, and the industrial chain is the main player as a whole. The traders have a positive attitude and most of the quotations are high.

From the raw material side, the domestic acetone market rose first and then fell after the festival. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, taking the market offer in East China as an example, the market offer in East China was 6400 yuan / ton on October 8 and 6800 yuan / ton on October 13, up 7.03%, and the highest negotiation in the middle was 7000 yuan / ton. The acetone market was significantly higher supported by upstream raw materials, but the downstream acceptance was limited, and the cargo holders sold goods at a profit. The East China market declined significantly over the weekend, and the factory decreased by 100 yuan / ton. In terms of the national market, the current negotiation space is 6800-7100 yuan / ton. Offers from major mainstream regions are as follows: 6800 yuan / ton in East China, 7500 yuan / ton in South China, and 7000-7100 yuan / ton in Yanshan and Shandong.

The downstream rubber additives market is stable, the accelerator starts at a low level and the demand support is limited. Under the influence of policies, the downstream tire industry starts at a low level and the overall demand is weak.

From the perspective of business community, there is little short-term change at both ends of supply and demand. Business community expects to sort out the short-term market range.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (October 13): 14350.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the trend of domestic TDI market is strong, the distribution market in East China is sorted and operated, and the market price is increased. The quotation of TDI domestic goods in the distribution market is about 14000-14100 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods is about 14200-15400 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation. At present, although the units of Wanhua chemical and Gansu Yinguang have returned to normal, the actual supply is still small. In addition, the unit of a factory in the North has not been restarted, and the market supply is tight. In the downstream, the sea freight is reduced, the export orders at the downstream of the terminal are increased, and the rising prices of sponge and polyether drive the TDI market to improve.

Future forecast: the supply and demand sides are good, and the future TDI market is expected to rise. Pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

According to the monitoring data of business society, after the national day, the hydrogen peroxide Market opened a rising road, and the price continued to reach a new high. As of October 12, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1140 yuan / ton, an increase of 29.55% over the price in early October.

After the national day, the market of hydrogen peroxide began to rise gradually. In the second week, the mode of sharp rise was started. In just two days, the price was close to 1200 yuan / ton, rising at 100-200 yuan / ton in a single day, with an increase of 13.62% on the 12th.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from July 19 to October 10 of business society, in mid July, the hydrogen peroxide market was depressed, with a weekly decline of nearly 3%. In August, the increase of hydrogen peroxide was limited, mainly sustained and stable until September. Since the middle of September, the hydrogen peroxide market has made great efforts, mainly due to the recovery of terminal demand. Hydrogen peroxide has started the rising mode, with a weekly increase of more than 3%. After the national day, the hydrogen peroxide market rose by 4.92% in the week of October 4.

Multiple positive factors superimposed hydrogen peroxide to open the surge mode

After the national day, the steam cost of hydrogen peroxide unit increased due to the rise of coal price. In addition to terminal caprolactam, the rigid demand support of the paper printing industry, the increase of procurement volume and the support of favorable factors, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have raised the ex factory price of hydrogen peroxide one after another, with a single day increase of more than 200 yuan / ton, and the quotation in some regions is 1300 yuan / ton.

On October 12, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Luxi, Shandong was 1070 yuan / ton, an increase of 230 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival; Hebei Zhengyuan hydrogen peroxide quoted 1050 yuan / ton, an increase of 200 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival; Anhui Quansheng quoted 1300 yuan / ton, an increase of 300 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival.

After the national day, the price of corrugated paper also shows an upward trend. The impact of power restriction, environmental protection policies and the rise of natural gas prices have continuously increased the production cost of corrugated paper and the market is heating up. After the festival, the price of corrugated paper increased by more than 2%. The corrugated paper market rose and the demand for purchasing hydrogen peroxide increased, supporting the upward trend of hydrogen peroxide price.

Business agency hydrogen peroxide analyst Li Bing believes that: supported by costs, the hydrogen peroxide market has ushered in a sharp rise. It is expected that the hydrogen peroxide price will continue to be strong in the short term.

Product Name: silicone DMC

Latest price (October 11): 63133 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on October 11, the trend of domestic silicone DMC market was weak and downward. On the 11 day, the price of domestic silicone DMC factory quoted 63000-63200 yuan / ton, the average price reference is 63133 yuan / ton, compared with the previous working day, the price was reduced by 733 yuan / ton, or 1.15%, among which the largest factory was a chemical factory in Shandong, and the price of organic silicon DMC was 63200 yuan / ton, which was 1000 yuan / ton lower than that during the national day.

Future forecast: at present, the high and low prices of domestic silicone DMC market are shrinking, and the downstream demand performance is still good. Therefore, according to the silicone DMC analysis of business society, most domestic silicone DMCs will continue to operate at a high level in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to the trend changes of supply and demand.

According to the monitoring of business society, the market price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride rose. As of September 9, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 7400 yuan / ton. The spot supply on the site was normal and the sales situation was OK.

The price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market is rising, the delivery situation of phthalic anhydride market is normal, the recent downstream demand changes little, the price trend of upstream orthobenzene is rising, and the plasticizer market is rising. Due to the impact of dual control, the domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is tight, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is rising. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers maintained a low level, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the field was less than 60%, the domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride was tight, the market price trend rose, the downstream plasticizer industry improved, and the actual transaction was normal. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China is rising, and the high-end transactions on the floor are limited. The mainstream of adjacent France source negotiation in East China is 7400-7600 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene method source negotiation is 7100-7300 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 7400-7500 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride still exists in the field. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand. The plasticizer market has improved recently, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride is expected to rise in the later stage.

Commodity index: on September 30, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 101.56, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.83% from the highest point 109.01 in the cycle (2019-08-28), and up 20.45% from the lowest point 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the monitoring of the business community, under the comprehensive influence of factors such as the sharp increase of raw material cost and production cost, the reduction of spot inventory and national day order arrangement, the market of water treatment products rose sharply in September. The manufacturer’s quotation was cautious, the pricing and delivery were subject to the price of the day, and oral reservation was not accepted, but the order arrangement was subject to payment. As a result, there are many shocking enterprise notices in the circle of friends, as shown in the figure:

As shown in the figure, according to the data of business society, the mainstream market of polyaluminium chloride in China has risen sharply recently. On September 1, the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminium chloride was 1761.11 yuan / ton, which rose to about 1878.89 yuan / ton on September 30, with a monthly increase of 6.69%.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, according to the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: business society, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid increased this month, and the quotation increased from 293.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 299.80 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 6.47 yuan / ton, or 2.21%. The recent market situation of upstream liquid chlorine is general, the cost support is general, the market situation of downstream ammonium chloride and white carbon black rises and falls, and the downstream purchase intention is general. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has mainly increased slightly recently.

LNG is used in the production process. In September, the domestic LNG market fluctuated violently, falling first and then rising and then falling. The price trend showed an inverted n-shape, which was much higher than the level in the same period in recent three years, and it fell sharply near the end of the month. On the 30th, the average price of domestic LNG was 5650 yuan / ton, down 460 yuan / ton from 6110 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, down 7.53% in the month and up 114.83% compared with the same period last year. The power rationing policy affects the demand of downstream users. In addition, during the holidays, dangerous chemical vehicles are prohibited from driving into the expressway, the logistics is limited, and there is pressure on the delivery of liquid plants. Actively reduce the price to seek profit. In the short term, the domestic LNG market is weak, and the price may continue to decrease.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business society, the market of water treatment industry rose under the comprehensive influence of multiple factors in September. The rise of raw materials increased the purchasing pressure of downstream enterprises and weakened the purchasing driving force of polyaluminium chloride. After that, the rise and fall of the market still depends on the change of raw material price.

In September, the phenol market rose first and then fell, with an overall upward trend of 2.71%. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of phenol in the country was 9225 yuan / ton on September 1, at yuan / ton on September 14, and at yuan / ton on September 30, with an increase of 2.71% and an amplitude of 7.32% in the month. So far, the offers in major mainstream markets are as follows: 9450-9500 yuan / ton in East China, 9400-9450 yuan / ton in Shandong and Yanshan, The offer in South China is 9600 yuan / ton.

Trend chart of average phenol price in the national market

Trend chart of phenol ex factory price index in East China in 2021

From the raw material side, the phenol Market in September was greatly affected by the raw material pure benzene. As can be seen from the figure below, the pure benzene also showed a trend of first rising and then falling in September. The arrival of some ships in the first ten days of the year was delayed, the port inventory was low, and the shipment of local refining enterprises was ok, so the price of pure benzene fluctuated and rose. At this time, it is reported that the large styrene plant is planned to be overhauled in October, the supply of styrene is expected to tighten, and the price rises sharply, driving the rise of pure benzene. In the second week of September, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene three times, from 350 yuan / ton to 8000 yuan / ton. After mid month, affected by the “dual control” policy in the downstream, the shutdown of multiple units decreased, the downstream operating rate decreased significantly, and the shutdown of styrene, aniline and caprolactam in East China decreased the load of phenol. In the early stage, the reserve of pure benzene in the downstream was relatively sufficient, the resistance of the downstream to high priced pure benzene increased and the follow-up weakened. The demand for pure benzene decreased sharply, and pure benzene fell broadly. The cumulative reduction is 700-800 yuan / ton to 7650-7700 yuan / ton.

The downstream bisphenol a market declined significantly. In September, bisphenol A was sorted down in a wide range. Under the influence of policies, the downstream operating rate decreased significantly, and the demand for raw material bisphenol a decreased sharply. Most domestic factories of bisphenol A have supporting devices. After the replenishment of imported goods, the demand decreased and the price decreased significantly. On September 28, the market fell to 21700 yuan / ton. After the sharp decline, most of the cargo holders did not make external offers and had no intention of shipping before the festival. The market callback was negotiated at 22500 yuan / ton in the two days at the end of the month. Phenolic resin and other downstream products have little change, and the overall demand is stable.

From the perspective of the business community, the pre festival goods preparation in the phenol market has ended, and the industrial chain has declined under the influence of policies. The pre festival goods preparation mood this year is poor. The business community expects the phenol Market to fluctuate upward in October, and the resumption of terminal factories still needs attention. After the National Day holiday, the market may push up. At present, there is little pressure on the domestic supply side, and the holders have little intention to make profit and ship goods. On the demand side, the impact of post holiday policies will be the key to the recovery of downstream operating rate. Business society expects that the phenol Market in October is worth looking forward to