The process of global energy structure transformation is accelerating. With the international efforts to deal with climate change and low-carbon energy has become a consensus, more and more countries have actively introduced policies and measures to promote the development of renewable energy industry, and the development prospect of green energy industry is expected.

 

According to the report “world energy outlook 2020″ recently released by the International Energy Agency, under the background of the overall decline in global energy demand, the development and utilization of renewable energy shows greater flexibility. It is estimated that from 2020 to 2030, the demand for renewable energy power will increase by 2 / 3, accounting for about 80% of the increase in global power demand.

 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) urged more countries to actively formulate effective energy policies, accelerate the transformation of energy structure and boost the sustainable growth of renewable energy industry.

 

Bacillus thuringiensis

Growth of renewable energy industry against the trend

 

In the world energy outlook 2020 report, the International Energy Agency predicts that global energy demand will not fully return to pre epidemic levels until at least 2023. According to the report, affected by the epidemic situation and other factors, the global energy demand is expected to drop by 5% this year, of which the oil demand will drop by 8% and the coal consumption will drop by 7%. However, the renewable energy industry will continue to grow and is expected to replace coal as the main power generation mode in 2025. By 2030, renewable energy will provide nearly 40% of the world’s electricity supply.

 

According to the world energy statistics review released by BP, while global coal consumption continues to decline, global renewable energy is growing at a record rate, accounting for more than 40% of the growth of primary energy in 2019.

 

According to the latest report published by Eurostat in November, the total amount of renewable energy production within the EU in 2018 increased by 2.8% year-on-year. Compared with 10 years ago, the proportion of fossil energy continued to decline in 2018, while renewable energy showed an upward trend, with a growth rate of 49.2%.

 

At present, 25% of energy in Latin America comes from renewable energy. In recent years, wind power and photovoltaic power generation have increased significantly. According to the Brazilian Solar Energy Association, the installed capacity of solar power in Brazil has increased more than five times since 2018. According to the latest data from the Brazilian Wind Energy Association, the installed capacity of wind power in the country has increased more than 15 times since 2010.

 

According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, wind power is currently the most popular renewable energy power generation mode in Latin America. Last year, it absorbed 8.9 billion US dollars of investment, an increase of 87% year-on-year. Solar power generation followed closely, with a cumulative investment of 8.1 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 31%.

 

The development of photovoltaic industry in Africa is also accelerating. According to the Market Research Report of the industry organizations of new energy finance and green Cape, South Africa’s solar energy leasing platform sun exchange predicts that in the five years from 2019 to 2024, the market potential of sub Saharan Africa in the field of industrial and commercial photovoltaic may exceed $7 billion.

Many countries increase the development of new energy

 

At present, more and more countries attach importance to the development and utilization of new energy, and correspondingly introduce more industrial support policies and green recovery plans to accelerate the transformation of energy structure to low-carbon.

 

South Korea recently announced a long-term renewable energy plan to increase renewable energy power development. According to the plan, by 2034, all coal-fired power plants in South Korea will be decommissioned, and the proportion of renewable energy in South Korea’s energy structure will increase from 15.1% to 40%.

 

According to the “2030 national energy plan” released by the French government, it will continue to increase the proportion of renewable energy generation in the field of power supply, especially the proportion of wind power, so as to realize the energy transformation. By 2030, renewable energy will account for 40% of France’s electricity supply, of which wind power is expected to account for 20%. Germany plans to increase the proportion of renewable energy from the current 18% to 30%.

 

In July this year, the European Commission launched the EU energy system integration development strategy. At the same time, it promoted the establishment of industry alliances in several key areas such as clean hydrogen energy and batteries, and promoted the development of relevant fields and investment through inter industry cooperation. In the long-term budget of the “next generation EU” recovery plan, the EU requires Member States to spend at least 37% of their public investment on climate change related fields in the process of promoting economic recovery, and further relax the financial restrictions on Member States’ investment in renewable energy projects.

 

The Chilean government officially launched the green hydrogen energy strategy in November this year to promote the transformation of energy structure. In December last year, the Chilean government announced that it would speed up the adjustment of its energy structure. It planned to reduce the share of coal-fired power generation to 20% by 2024, gradually increase the proportion of hydropower, wind, solar and biomass power generation, increase the proportion of renewable energy in the country’s total energy to 70% by 2030, and completely shut down all coal-fired power plants by 2040.

 

The Brazilian government has continuously introduced policies and measures to provide funds and policy support for infrastructure and projects related to solar energy and other industries. By 2035, the total investment in Brazil’s power industry will exceed US $30 billion, of which 70% will be used for renewable energy technologies such as solar photovoltaic, wind power, biomass energy and marine energy.

The future of industrial development is expected

Chitosan oligosaccharide

 

Dr. Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said that if governments and investors can step up the development and utilization of clean energy according to the sustainable development concept set by the International Energy Agency, it will be a great encouragement to deal with global climate change. The international energy agency calls on the government, energy companies, investors and the public to actively participate in promoting the transformation of energy structure optimization.

 

Nicholas Stern, former chief economist of the world bank, said that from a global perspective, the supply of fossil energy such as oil and natural gas is increasingly uncertain. In contrast, the development prospect of renewable energy industry is promising. According to stern analysis, with the increasing attention paid to the issue of climate change, more and more countries are making efforts to reduce the emission pollution caused by fossil energy such as oil. At the same time, the global cost of renewable energy development is declining, which provides an opportunity for the growth of the industry. Many countries have attached more importance to the development of renewable energy industry in the medium and long term.

 

Benmike Williams, an energy expert at the brueger Institute of economics in Belgium, believes that while the government increases public investment, it is also important to effectively attract private investment. On the one hand, governments can adjust market expectations through policy guidance, so that investors can foresee the prospect of investment in low-carbon economy; on the other hand, they should further accelerate the construction of internal energy market integration, strengthen international policy coordination, and ensure that energy prices remain stable and reasonable, so as to attract investors’ attention to green energy industry.

 

“In order to achieve sustainable development and the climate objectives of the Paris Agreement, Member States should strive to increase the proportion of renewable energy sources, ensure universal and reliable electricity, and actively build inclusive, resilient and low-carbon energy systems.” Ali shahbana, executive secretary of the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, said at the 2020 global energy Internet (Asia) conference. The conference proposed to speed up the development of clean energy bases with good resource conditions and economic benefits, deliver power to the energy utilization centers in the continent, and create an energy development pattern of “power transmission from the west to the East, power from the north to the south, multi energy complementation and regional interconnection”. On this basis, power interconnection channels between Asia and Europe, Africa and Oceania will be built to realize cross continent energy mutual benefit.

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According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the average price of fluorite in China was 2616.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as 2616.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.54%.

 

povidone Iodine

The price trend of domestic fluorite market is fluctuating. Recently, some manufacturers have reported that their goods are in general, the downstream demand has not improved, and the fluorite price has not changed much. The operation of domestic fluorite manufacturers is stable, the operation of on-site mines and flotation devices is normal, the situation of fluorite in the yard is not good, and the fluorite market price remains stable temporarily. In the near future, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market price remained low, and the terminal downstream on-demand procurement was dominant, and the purchasing sentiment was not strong. As of the 20th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2400-2600 yuan / ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiation in Fujian was 2500-2700 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-2700 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2600-2700 yuan / ton, Recently, the domestic fluorite price remains stable.

 

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid downstream of fluorite is mainly volatile. As of the 20th day, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price was 8360 yuan / ton. This week, the hydrofluoric acid market price rose slightly by 0.06%. The low hydrofluoric acid market price has a certain negative impact on the upstream fluorite market, and the fluorite market price trend is temporarily stable. The market performance of refrigerants is still poor, the demand continues to be weak, and the market is hard to find. The market of refrigerants industry chain remains at a low level. The market of some types of refrigerants has risen. The manufacturers are under pressure to ship, and the sales pressure is increasing. The raw material hydrofluoric acid is weak and stable, and the supporting force is general. The export volume of refrigerant is expected to decline. The output of downstream air conditioning is low, and the demand is scarce. The after-sales market is in off Continue to reduce the price of goods to seek good. On the whole, the refrigerant market is hard to find good factors, the price continues to be low or will become normal, and the transaction focus is general. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price remains low. However, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and there is a lot of wait-and-see mood. The actual transaction center of gravity is shifted downward. Some traders are looking for positive shipment, and the quotation is slightly lower than the manufacturer’s ex factory price, and there is a phenomenon of cost inversion. The mainstream of field negotiation is 12500-15500 yuan / ton. The domestic R134a market has increased, but the automobile market industry continues to be depressed, and the transaction atmosphere is light. There is sufficient supply of goods in the market, and there is the impact of new production capacity entering the market. The competition is fierce. The supply side gradually forms a negative situation. The price continues to be low. The downstream demand is not improved. The price of fluorite remains low.

 

On the whole, the market of downstream refrigerants is not good. In addition, hydrofluoric acid merchants have reported that the delivery of hydrofluoric acid has not improved, and the downstream hydrofluoric acid market is in a serious deficit state. Chen Ling, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the fluorite market price may remain low in the short term.

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1、 Price trend:

 

EDTA

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of caustic soda is in a weak position. At the beginning of the week, the average price in Shandong was 495 yuan / ton, while that in the weekend was 490 yuan / ton, with the price falling by 1.01% and 36.77% in the same period last year. On November 15, the commodity index of caustic soda was 70.50, flat with yesterday, 65.92% lower than 206.87 (2017-11-14), and 8.28% higher than the lowest point of 65.11 on October 09, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The price of domestic liquid caustic soda is mainly stable for the time being, with strong awareness of price rising in the upstream and weak demand in the downstream. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is weak. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 400-530 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu market is 530-600 yuan / ton. The price of flake caustic soda in Shandong market is 1850-1950 yuan / ton. The price of 99% flake caustic soda is 1600-1650 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia. Most of the downstream products are purchased on demand. The market atmosphere is not good, and the downstream transaction follow-up is weak. Enterprises mainly discuss and ship. It is expected that Inner Mongolia will stabilize the market temporarily in the near future.

 

EDTA 2Na

Upstream and demand: on the upstream side, the domestic liquid chlorine market was up and down each other, among which the North China market rose first and then fell during the week, while the East China, central China and Northeast China markets were dominant during the week. Up to now, Shandong market tanker 1100-1200 yuan / ton; Hebei market tanker mainstream transaction 1100-1200 yuan / ton. With the restart of Huatai plant at the weekend, the price of liquid chlorine dropped to about 1100. It is expected that the price of liquid chlorine will return rationally in the future. On the downstream side, the order price of alumina delivered to alumina plant in Xiaoyi area of Shanxi Province in November was increased by 50 yuan / ton compared with that in October. However, in recent years, the overall shipment of caustic soda is not good, there are new devices to increase the supply of caustic soda, and the price of caustic soda is weak.

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 45th week (11.9-11.13) of 2020, there are 3 kinds of commodities rising and 2 kinds of falling commodities in the price rising and falling list of chlor alkali industry, and there are 0 kinds of commodities that rise or fall to 0. The main commodities that rose were calcium carbide (3.05%), PVC (1.85%) and hydrochloric acid (0.81%); the main commodities falling were caustic soda (- 1.01%) and light soda ash (- 0.89%). This week, the average rise and fall was 0.76%.

 

Business agency analysts believe that the downstream purchase demand of 11 caustic soda products is general, and there is a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda sorting will be weak, and the specific demand of downstream market.

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According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic light potassium carbonate this week is 6150.00 yuan / ton, the current price is down 0.61% month on month, and the current price is 4.28% lower than last year.

 

povidone Iodine

This week, the domestic potash market remained stable, while the demand side was weak. Downstream factories took more goods on demand, curbing the price rise, and the price adjustment was not large. According to the statistics of the business agency: this week, the mainstream factory quotation range of industrial grade potassium carbonate in China is about 5900-6400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the purchase situation.

 

On November 13, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is 1950 yuan / ton, which is stable temporarily. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. On November 13, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 2200 yuan / T potassium chloride, which was temporarily stable. The actual transaction price was mainly negotiated. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, potassium chloride supply is normal, future market is expected to be low consolidation of potassium chloride market. Potassium chloride market high and stable, can give potassium carbonate a certain cost support.

 

Potassium carbonate analysts of the business club believe that the domestic potassium chloride price is at a high level in the near future, and the follow-up supply of Port imported potassium is not sufficient, but the downstream raw material procurement is not active. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will rise slightly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

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During the week from November 2 to 8, WTI and Brent crude oil prices fluctuated between us $36.81-39.15/barrel and US $38.97-41.23/barrel, respectively. On the eve of the general election in February, the US stock market has been optimistic about the high risk of the U.S. economy. From November 2 to 4, the international oil price continued to rise, with a daily increase rate of more than 2.3%. On May 6, oil prices fell due to the tight state of the US election and the record increase in the number of new cases diagnosed in Europe and the United States. On November 6, WTI and Brent prices fell by 4.25% and 3.62% respectively to US $37.14/barrel and US $39.45/barrel.

povidone Iodine

 

In the past week, news including the reduction of US crude oil inventories and the possibility that OPEC will extend the current production reduction scale supported the rise of international oil prices. The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) reported on November 4 that inventories fell 8 million barrels to 484 million barrels in the week on October 30 from the previous week, while an increase of 1.2 million barrels is expected.

 

Algeria, which holds OPEC’s rotating presidency this year, said Saudi Arabia and Russia are urging other Member States to extend the current production reduction agreement until next year, rather than gradually relaxing the intensity of production reduction as previously planned. Algeria was the first country to publicly support the proposal. Tortoise analysis pointed out that if OPEC + extended the production reduction and the US crude oil inventory fell beyond expectations, oil prices would remain relatively positive. Goldman Sachs is also optimistic about OPEC +’s plans to continue to cut production, saying it will help ensure a large-scale supply shortage in 2021.

 

US manufacturing activity grew more than expected in October, with new orders rising to the highest level in nearly 17 years, according to data. The U.S. stock market rose on November 2, and the trend of energy stocks was consistent with the overall trend, which constituted a short-term support for oil prices.

 

Meanwhile, novel coronavirus pneumonia has increased in the past week, and the increase in Libya’s production has limited the room for oil price growth. The impact of the new outbreak on the demand side is not optimistic. Germany, the United Kingdom, France and other European countries have restarted the blockade, and the overall economic outlook of the euro zone is uncertain. Italy set a record number of people infected in a single day on November 5. Weak demand in Europe continued to weigh on sentiment, with average highway usage in France, Italy and Spain falling to their lowest level since the end of June, ANZ said in a report. According to Johns Hopkins University, the number of new cases in the United States reached 102800 on November 4, the first record of new infections in a single day in the United States.

 

Stewart Glickman, an energy Equity Analyst at CFRA research, said the world was entering another wave of containment pressure. If there is another wave that could last the whole winter, it will further hit crude oil demand. Standard Chartered Bank expects global oil demand to fall by 8.73 million B / D in the fourth quarter of this year from a year earlier, 1 million B / D more than it expected two weeks ago.

 

At the same time, increasing production on the supply side poses a challenge to oil prices. Mustafa sanara, chairman of Libya’s national oil company, said Libya’s crude oil production has increased to 800000 barrels a day, and the country’s goal is to reach 1.3 million barrels by the beginning of 2021. In addition, US shale oil producers are keen to increase production, with the number of oil and gas drilling platforms rising for the third consecutive month in October, according to Baker Hughes.

 

At present, worries about the fundamentals of oil supply and demand will play a supporting role, with the US presidential election and the reaction of risk markets to the outcome to be the main players, said Harry tchilinguirian, an analyst at BNP Paribas. According to Raiffeisen analyst David olzant, “the two factors that will help oil prices break the current range for the rest of 2020 are the unexpected good news about the US presidential election and vaccines.”

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1、 Price trend

 

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

The price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China increased from 2896.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2940.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 43.33 yuan / ton or 1.50%, 7.04% higher than the same period last year. Overall, this week’s carbide market rose, carbide commodity index on November 6 was 77.03.

 

2、 Trend analysis

 

According to the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise this week: the price of carbide from oviganeng is 3020 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which is 130 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia and China Union is 2900 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the price of calcium carbide in Xingping of Ningxia is 2900 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

 

Overall, the actual transaction price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is about 2900-3000 yuan / ton this weekend: the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 3000 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Ningxia is about 2900 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2900 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation.

 

From the calcium carbide upstream and downstream industry chain, upstream raw material market, orchid charcoal factory quotation this week temporarily stable. At present, the quotation of small materials is 650 yuan / ton, that of medium materials is 680 yuan / ton, and that of large materials is about 750 yuan / ton. The upstream raw material prices rose slightly and the cost support was good, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

 

Downstream market, PVC serious shortage this week, factory prices rise. PVC price increased by 2.26% from 7175.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7337.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 10.63%. This week, PVC prices rose slightly, the market is good, downstream purchasing enthusiasm for calcium carbide, overall, PVC market this week has a positive impact on calcium carbide prices.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

In the middle of November, calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. The price of raw materials in the upstream rose slightly, which supported the price of calcium carbide better. The shortage of PVC in the downstream was serious and the market rose sharply. The downstream customers had a good enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. Later market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in mid November.

Melamine

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of activated carbon was 10866 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week and 10900 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with the price rising by 0.31%.

 

ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate)

The price of activated carbon in China has risen slightly. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is about 7000-12000 yuan / T; the quotation of activated carbon is strong, and the market is stable. At present, the activated carbon enterprises are in normal production, the downstream inquiry is acceptable, the trading market atmosphere is general, and the warehouse out is normal.

 

The cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell and charcoal as the main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon was supported, and the demand turned better; the cost support of coal based carbon raw materials was weak. The downstream power, medicine and other demand industries purchase goods according to the order. The purchase market of activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable, and the environmental protection policy boosts the activated carbon market.

 

Forecast: in the short term, the price of activated carbon is mainly to maintain stability, and there are many indicators of activated carbon. Please contact the manufacturer for specific price consultation, mainly through negotiation.

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In the peak season of October, the LPG market finally stepped out of the downward trend and started to rise. According to the data of the business agency, the average price of LPG in Shandong market was 2776.67 yuan / ton on October 1, and 3100.00 yuan / ton on October 31, with an increase of 11.64% in the month and a decrease of 18.78% over the same period of last year.

 

Although the peak season of this year’s (2020) LPG civil market is slower than expected, the price rise has not been absent. In October, the civil market of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is dominant on the whole, with a rapid rise in the first half of the month and consolidation in the second half.

 

On October 30, the mainstream prices of LPG in various regions in China were as follows:

Specification, mode of transportation, region, date, mainstream price

Civil gas transportation in North China October 30: 3150-3200 yuan / ton

Benzalkonium chloride

Civil gas and automobile transportation in East China October 30: 3250-3500 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in South China October 30 3450-3650 yuan / ton

Civil gas transportation by truck in Shandong province October 30: 3070-3100 yuan / ton

Transportation of civil gas by truck in Northeast China October 30: 2950-3150 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in Western China October 30: 3000-3120 yuan / ton

During the double festival holiday, the market opened the upward route. After the festival is continued to rise sharply, the rise in South China is the most prominent rise, the market is more sustained. Prices have fallen to a relatively low level in September. In October, international crude oil rose more than fell, bringing strong support to the market. After the festival, the downstream inventory and replenishment demand was more positive, the manufacturers shipped smoothly, and the inventory was mostly at a low level. In terms of market supply, the import gas at the port decreased significantly compared with that in September. In terms of market demand, the weather temperature continued to drop in October, especially in the northern market, where the terminal demand increased, resulting in a phased imbalance between supply and demand. Under multiple favorable conditions, prices continued to rise.

 

In late October, the LPG market in Shandong Province has entered the consolidation stage after rising. Although the overall fluctuation is frequent, the range is relatively limited. The overall trend of the last ten days showed a trend of first falling, then rising, then falling and then rising. Due to the rapid rise in the civil price of LPG in the first ten days of October, after the manufacturer’s quotation rose to a relatively high level, the downstream acceptance ability was limited, the resistance was strengthened, and the mentality was cautious. The manufacturers’ shipment situation was obviously weakened compared with the previous period. Since October 15, the factory price was forced to be reduced and the shipment was mainly carried out at a profit. With the profits of manufacturers, the price continued to fall, and the downstream bargain hunting and replenishment operations increased, the market trading atmosphere turned better, and the manufacturers’ shipment was generally smooth. Moreover, due to the controllable inventory, the market ushered in an upward market on October 21. However, due to the decline of international crude oil during this period, which brought some pressure to the market, the market fell again at the weekend (10.24-25), and a slight rebound was ushered in on the 27th. At present, the supply of civil gas market in Shandong is basically stable, the market transaction atmosphere is mild, the downstream market entry enthusiasm is good, the manufacturers’ shipment is smooth, and the inventory is mostly in a controllable state.

 

In October, LPG futures market was mainly volatile and fell, which was limited to the spot market

 

On October 30, 2012, the opening price of LPG futures was 3719, the highest price was 3939, the lowest price was 3655, the closing price was 3885, the previous settlement price was 3730, and the settlement price was 3809, with an increase of 155 or 4.16%, the trading volume was 217251, the position was 41980, and the daily increase was 2902. (unit: yuan / ton)

 

On the whole, with the end of the “ten” liquefied gas market. However, the weakness of international crude oil at the end of the month has brought some restraint to the market. At present, the inventory of most enterprises is in a controllable state. In the later stage, with the continuous decline of temperature, there is still a certain expectation of improvement in demand, and there are still factors in peak season. Moreover, the CP price was introduced in November, and the propylene butane all rose sharply, which brought certain benefits to the market. It is expected that the civil gas in November may still rise.

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Commodity index: on October 31, the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride was 90.97, which was the same as yesterday, 16.55% lower than 109.01 (2019-08-28), and 7.89% higher than the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate)

 

According to the data, from September to October, the market of polyaluminum chloride showed an overall upward trend, with a total increase of 7.09% in the two months of the “golden nine silver decade”; the lowest mainstream price of polyaluminum chloride, one of the main monitoring specifications, with a content of more than 28%, was 1571.43 yuan / ton on September 1, and the highest price was about 1682.86 yuan / ton at the end of October, with an increase of more than 7%. Since 2020, polyaluminum chloride has been in the market since 2020 The best two months. Among them, the price of raw materials hydrochloric acid and calcium powder increased, and the price of fuel and natural gas used in the production process rose sharply, which led to the cost increase of polyaluminum chloride manufacturers in the past two months, and the manufacturer’s ex factory price increased accordingly, totaling about 200 yuan / ton in two months. Among them, the increase in October was significantly greater than that in September, with a difference of about 100 yuan / ton.

 

Raw material cost: hydrochloric acid: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of North China is mainly stable, and some of them are rising: the price of poly aluminum chloride in Dezhou Maihua was reported at 160 yuan / ton in early September, and 210 yuan / ton at the end of the month after several price adjustments in October, with an increase of about 50 yuan / ton; the quotations of Jinan Yuanfei, Taiyuan kunshengda, Shanxi Wenshui and Dezhou Shihua are relatively stable. As for Henan, one of the main production areas of water treatment enterprises, according to the local polyaluminum chloride manufacturers, the price of hydrochloric acid was about 180 yuan / ton in September, and the price of hydrochloric acid continued to rise in October. Not only was the price of hydrochloric acid high, but also they had to queue up to get the goods. According to the market rules, the downstream was also in September and October Month is the heating season for environmental protection water treatment reserve raw materials. Under the stimulation of cost and demand, the ex factory prices of most polyaluminum chloride rose, about 200 yuan / ton in February. Calcium powder: according to traders, the price increase of raw material calcium powder is mainly concentrated in September, with an increase of about 80 yuan / ton. Since October, the price of calcium powder is still stable at the price at the end of September, with little change.

 

Since September, the price of natural gas, a fuel used in the production of polyaluminum chloride, has soared. According to the monitoring of the business agency, with the opening of heating in winter, some areas have begun to replenish urban fuel, and the demand is gradually increasing. At present, the downstream purchasing is active, the production and sales of liquid plants are not under pressure, the market atmosphere is good, and the price is pushed up strongly. In addition, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas is generally rising. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will continue to rise in the short term Potential. At the beginning of September, the mainstream price of liquefied natural gas was 2406.67 yuan / ton, and at the end of October, it was about 3766.67 yuan / ton, with an increase of more than 56% in two months. For polyaluminum enterprises with such a big increase, the pressure will increase instantly, and the ex factory price of polyaluminum will inevitably rise.

 

Downstream demand: in the traditional peak season of “Jinjiu Yinshi”, the price of polyaluminum chloride increased significantly. With the strict requirements of environmental protection inspection and the coming of winter heating season, the demand for polyaluminum in water treatment projects has increased significantly. Many manufacturers said that September and October are the traditional sales peak season, especially October, which is the best month in 2020, and downstream demand is expected to continue to improve.

 

Industry: since September, the water treatment industry has been in the annual sales peak season as a whole, and the market rise is mainly subject to the rising pressure of the cost side and the demand for water treatment products caused by the upcoming heating season and environmental protection pressure. The market generally has a good view of the water treatment industry in the heating season.

 

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of business agency, the traditional season of “golden nine silver ten” has obvious characteristics, and the market in October is better than that in September. Based on the demand of heating season, the price of polyaluminum chloride is rising due to the continuous rise of raw material cost. Due to the coming of heating next month, the comprehensive influence of environmental protection and cost rise, the demand for water treatment will continue to have a certain support Due to the strict requirements of environmental protection, it is still unknown whether there will be shutdown and rectification due to environmental protection. In addition to policy factors, from the perspective of market rules, polyaluminum chloride trend still has upward momentum.

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1、 Price trend

 

Melamine

Taking the rutile titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process, which has a large volume in the domestic market, as an example, the price of titanium dioxide rose this month according to the data of the business club’s bulk list. At the beginning of the month, the average price of titanium dioxide in China was 14333.33 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 15533.33 yuan / ton. The price rose by 6.98% within the month.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Gold rose, silver ten even more. Some manufacturers such as CNKI titanium dioxide and Jinpu titanium industry announced two price increases within one month, and the price increase was only 18 days from the last one. Shandong dao’en, Yumen Jingyang, Fangyuan titanium dioxide, Guangxi Jinmao, Ningbo Xinfu, Yunnan Dayong, Panzhihua titanium capital, Panzhihua titanium sea, Guizhou shengweifu, Panzhihua Zhengyuan technology, Jinan Yuxing, CNKI titanium dioxide, Jinpu titanium industry, etc. announced that the domestic price of titanium dioxide products was increased by 800-1200 yuan on the original basis, and the international price was increased by 150-180 US dollars on the original basis. This is the first time that the titanium dioxide industry has raised two price rises in a month. The price increase is the fifth time since the second half of the year. Up to now, the domestic ex factory price of rutile titanium dioxide is 14500-16000 yuan / ton, and that of anatase titanium dioxide is 12500-13500 yuan / ton.

 

According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, in September 2020, the export volume of titanium dioxide will be about 111835 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 33.45%. From January to September 2020, the cumulative export volume will be about 889624 tons, an increase of 164869 tons compared with the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of 22.75%. The main reasons for the change in export volume are: poor domestic demand in the first quarter, manufacturers’ trading focus tends to export, and the outbreak of overseas epidemic in the second quarter, leading to the reduction of exports. In the third quarter, the export volume has been greatly improved compared with the previous period. At present, the export situation in the fourth quarter continues to be good, but the prices of raw materials are also rising.

 

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In terms of raw materials, Panxi titanium concentrate prices continued to rise this week. The market price of imported titanium ore also rose, supporting panzhili to a certain extent. At present, the price of 38,42 titanium ore without tax is 1250-1280 yuan / ton. The price of 46,10 titanium ore excluding tax is about 1900 yuan / ton. The price of 47 and 20 ore is about 1890 yuan / ton. Recently, titanium dioxide enterprises are under great pressure due to the continuous increase of titanium ore price, which provides a strong support for titanium dioxide price.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Titanium dioxide business agency analysts believe: this month, the export of enterprises continued to be good, domestic downstream market spot tension, raw material titanium ore supply shortage, price rise. Titanium dioxide prices continue to rise, in view of the short interval between the two price hikes this month, downstream orders also feel pressure. After this round of adjustment, it is expected that the titanium dioxide market will be stable in the short term.

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