1、 Price quotation
According to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), compared with the high price of more than 40000 yuan, the price of natural rubber at that time had fallen by three quarters. In 2019, the price of natural rubber as a whole had three surges (12070 yuan / ton on March 4 was the first high price, 12020 on June 11 was the second high price, 12290 yuan / ton on December 6 was the third high price), and the two downturns of the whole year (10700 yuan / ton at the end of April and the beginning of May and 10260 yuan / ton at the end of July and the beginning of August), but none of these three months of market in the first quarter of 2020 is worrying. According to the market data of natural rubber in 18 years in Baodao, East China monitored by the business agency, the price on March 30 is about 9100 yuan / ton, which is about one fifth of the highest price of Tianjiao and the lowest price in ten years. From the single month of March, the price of 9100 yuan / ton at the end of the month is about 1300 yuan / ton lower than the mainstream price of 10400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, a drop of 10.67%.
According to the data of the previous period, on March 18, 2020, the main contract of Shanghai Jiaotong broke 10000 yuan, which is still fluctuating and decreasing; on November 27, the lowest price in Shanghai Jiaotong was 9300 yuan / ton, which has broken the low value of 9350 yuan / ton that Shanghai Jiaotong went out on November 30, 2015; on November 30, the lowest price in Shanghai Jiaotong was 9115 yuan / ton, which has renewed the new low price; looking back at the historical trend, the lower price of Shanghai Jiaotong is 8 on December 31, 2008 715 yuan / ton, that is to say, Shanghai rubber is at the lowest price in 11 years.
2、 Factor analysis
Raw material supply: at present, the rubber production at home and abroad is in the off-season. The weather in the main production areas of China is dry and powdery mildew occurs in some areas. It is expected that the cutting time will be delayed and the output will not be as good as that in previous years. The Southeast Asian market will be significantly affected, and the output and export transportation of natural rubber will be significantly affected. There are a lot of raw rubber arriving at Hong Kong in China after the year, and the influence of production factors on the market is not clear. According to statistics, the existing stock of Tianjiao in China can maintain the consumption for three months, that is, China mainly relies on the existing stock consumption in the first quarter. From the perspective of prevention and control situation, the current domestic situation is positive, and all walks of life are back to work in an orderly manner; however, the foreign situation is very severe, and the Southeast Asian rubber producing countries have taken continuous measures in the near future.
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Thailand: on April 16, Prime Minister Bayu said that he would propose to the cabinet to cancel the songganjie holiday from April 13 to 15; on April 16, the South Buri Prefecture in the northeast of Thailand announced the closure of the city; on March 26, Thailand launched the emergency law and enforced it for one month; on March 29, Thailand’s Phuket Prefecture announced that it would block the land and water routes in and out of Phuket except air routes from March 30 to April 30. At present, the main rubber production area in southern Thailand is not “closed city”, but the closure of Malaysia has a serious impact on the rubber transportation in Thailand. The exports of Thailand, Shatun and Dongli account for about 30% of the total exports of Thailand, of which the transfer exports through the ports of Malaysia account for about 40-50%. According to this proportion, the impact on Thailand’s exports will be about 40000 tons, while Thailand is urgently deploying the ports in Thailand Mouth. The price of rubber raw materials in Thailand fell, and the price of cup rubber was the lowest ever. Data shows that as of March 27, the glue price in Thailand’s Heai region was 35.5 baht / kg, with an average price of 38.93 baht / kg in March, down 2.73 baht / kg compared with February; the cup glue price was 27.5 baht / kg, with an average price of 30.97 baht / kg in March, down 2.79 baht / kg compared with February.
Malaysia: on March 16, the Prime Minister of Malaysia announced that he would take two weeks of stricter restrictions nationwide from March 18 to strengthen the prevention and control of public health incidents. On March 18, Penang Port of Malaysia announced that it would not accept the transit of Thai goods. Under the measures of “closing the city”, there is a great pressure on Malaysia’s domestic high storage. According to the data, in 2019, Malaysia’s natural rubber output will be about 650000 tons, accounting for 4.55% of global natural rubber output. In 2019, China’s imports from Malaysia will be 699000 tons, accounting for 13.28% of China’s total imports of natural rubber. In 2017-2019, China’s average monthly imports from Malaysia will be about 65000 tons, and Malaysia’s “closure” may directly cause China’s imports from Malaysia to shrink About 35000-35000 tons will be reduced, and “closure” will basically shut down domestic rubber processing plants in Malaysia, which will significantly reduce the import demand for Thailand’s concentrated latex and African rubber raw materials.
Indonesia: Indonesian President Joko called on religious leaders to help fight the epidemic, refused to seal the city but ordered extensive tests. At present, the impact of the country’s exports is small.
India: the government announced a three-week national blockade beginning on March 25. The sudden “closure” has brought no small shock to Indian society. The logistics has stagnated, production has stopped and supply chain has broken. India’s economy is inevitably impacted.
Inventory data: as of March 27, the warehouse receipt inventory of the previous stock exchange was at a low level in the same period, but the stock of imported rubber arrived at the port after the year accumulated. It is said that the stock of natural rubber at the spot end of Qingdao free trade zone was high and under great pressure. As of March 27, the natural rubber inventory of the previous period was 242467 tons, 1907 tons less than that of February 28, and the futures inventory was 236670 tons, 1730 tons less than that of February 28, 184750 tons less than that of the same period in 2019; the rubber inventory of the previous period was 73829 tons, 11917 tons more than that of February 28, and the futures inventory was 53545 tons, 9777 tons more than that of February 28. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao free trade zone is 753400 tons, including 188000 tons in free trade zone and 565400 tons in general trade.
Import and export volume: according to customs data, from January to February 2020, China imported 840200 tons of natural rubber (including latex and mixed rubber), an increase of 5.03% over the same period in 2019. From January to February 2020, China’s import standard is 223100 tons, an increase of 39600 tons compared with the same period of 2019; import tobacco flake rubber is 23300 tons, an increase of 0100 tons compared with the same period of 2019; import mixed rubber is 526900 tons, an increase of 21100 tons compared with the same period of 2019; import compound rubber is 8900 tons, a decrease of 4600 tons compared with the same period of 2019.
Demand factors: 1. Tire: in March, the domestic tire enterprises returned to work stably. At first, the situation of domestic epidemic control was good, and the enterprise mentality was positive. Later, the situation of foreign spread was rapid, which had a huge impact on downstream orders. The tire export was blocked, and the production situation of tire enterprises was not as expected. 2. Passenger cars: under special circumstances, the domestic demand for passenger cars has been greatly reduced. According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, in February, China’s production and sales of passenger vehicles completed 195000 and 224000 respectively, down 86.4% and 86.1% on a month on month basis, down 82.9% and 81.7% on a year-on-year basis, higher than the overall decline of automobile production and sales. Affected by the sharp decline in the market in February, the growth rate of production and sales of passenger vehicles also fell sharply from January to February, completing 1.631 million and 1.831 million respectively. According to the resumption of production in the first ten days of March mastered by CAAC, it is much better than that in February. In the last ten days of March, the situation of China’s automobile industry returning to work further improved. 3. Substitute rubber: at present, the international crude oil plummeted, which has a very direct impact on the commodities in its chemical industry chain. As a result, the cost of butadiene and synthetic rubber of natural rubber decreased due to the decline of crude oil. As part of synthetic rubber can replace natural rubber in the production of tire factories, the depressed natural rubber market has become even worse. 4. A number of foreign tire manufacturers closed their factories and the tire industry was seriously affected.
Industry policy: on March 17, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the announcement on increasing the export tax rebate rate of some products, saying that from March 20, 2020, the export tax rebate rate of 1084 products will be increased to 13%; the export tax rebate rate of 380 products will be increased to 9%. The export tax rebate rate of synthetic rubber increased from 10% to 13%, encouraging the export of synthetic rubber. However, under the influence of the bad macro environment and the serious contraction of downstream demand, the pressure on the synthetic rubber outlet is obvious.
3、 Future forecast
Natural rubber analysts of the business club believe that the special situation in the first quarter is even worse for the natural rubber market. Although China’s domestic situation is getting better and the situation of tire enterprises returning to work is getting better, the uncontrollable factors of foreign situation still lead to commodity level worries and bearish. This month, the price of Tianjiao fell from about a quarter of the highest market price to about a fifth, while Shanghai Jiao fell sharply in a row, ranking the lowest in a decade. Although the current output is limited and foreign supply is blocked, which is a good thing for Tianjiao market, under special circumstances, crude oil has fallen sharply and the global economy has slowed down, Tianjiao supply chain has been hit, downstream demand has been blocked and orders have been severely reduced, and the social inventory of domestic Tianjiao is high, and the production peak season of production enterprises after the Spring Festival is far away. In foreign countries, the situation of prevention and control is still tense, and the demand is not greatly improved, Tianjiao market is still worrying. Pay close attention to the impact of the progress of prevention and control situation on the commodity level, and expect the turning point to come as soon as possible.