According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the recent trend of TDI prices in East China has been mainly stable. On September 18, the average market price in East China was 18033.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.19% compared to the price of 18000.00 yuan/ton on September 11, and a decrease of 5.09% compared to the previous month.

The domestic TDI market is stagnant and operating, with slight price fluctuations. Last week, the market learned that Shanghai Kesichuang was closed and the execution price was raised. At the same time, other factories had limited supply, the market supply was tight, and suppliers had a clear attitude of supporting the market. Traders followed the market, and the offer was raised. However, downstream demand was average, the stocking atmosphere was poor, market trading was light, and the TDI price increase was limited. The operators had a wait-and-see mentality.

The upstream toluene market continues to rise. On September 18th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 8380 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 1.70% compared to the price of 8240 yuan/ton on September 11th. The international crude oil price has risen, and the cost of toluene has been positive. At the same time, with the support of export orders, the price of toluene has increased simultaneously. However, domestic downstream demand is weak, and there is resistance towards high priced toluene, which to some extent limits the increase in toluene. The price of toluene has narrowed down.

In the future market analysis, TDI data analysts from the business agency believe that the supplier’s stock is tight, the factory has a strong mentality of price competition, and downstream demand follow-up is insufficient. Coupled with resistance towards high prices, the enthusiasm for entering the market is average, and there is a game between supply and demand on the market, with insufficient positive support. As the National Day holiday approaches, considering downstream reserve demand, it is expected that the TDI market in the future will continue to rise. Please pay attention to the release of supplier information.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the recent price trend of the domestic rare earth market has been mainly volatile, while the price trend of the domestic light rare earth market has remained stable. The rare earth index on September 17 was 516 points, a decrease of 48.76% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 90.41% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The price trend of domestic metal neodymium, neodymium oxide, metal praseodymium, praseodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy has temporarily stabilized, while the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide has slightly decreased. As of the 18th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 645000 yuan/ton, and the price remained unchanged this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 525000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.41% this week; The price of neodymium oxide is 537500 yuan/ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable; The price of neodymium metal is 665000 yuan/ton, and it has remained stable this week; The price of metal praseodymium is 670000 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged this week; The price of praseodymium oxide is 527500 yuan/ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable this week.

In early September, the trend of the light rare earth market rose. Due to the impact of regional rainfall weather, some rare earth mining enterprises were restricted in production, and some rare earth manufacturers took the initiative to reduce production, which further slowed down the growth rate of spot inventory in the market. Separation plants and metal plants in Sichuan region will have varying degrees of production reduction and shutdown behavior, and the price trend of light rare earth market will rise due to supply reduction. However, in the middle of the year, downstream resistance has intensified, and the procurement of inquiries has come to an end. In addition, downstream magnetic material enterprises have reduced new orders, intensifying upstream and downstream competition, and the domestic light rare earth market price trend is mainly stable.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 843000 and 846000 units respectively in August, with a month on month increase of 4.7% and 8.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 22% and 27%, respectively; From January to August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 5.434 million and 5.374 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 36.9% and 39.2%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, coupled with the opening of the Golden Nine Silver Ten Year Plan, the demand for new energy has increased, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles is beneficial for the domestic rare earth market prices. The light rare earth market still has support.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, the export of rare earth and its products reached 9618 tons in August, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%; From January to August, the cumulative export of rare earth and its products reached 79083 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The export volume of rare earth commodities in China increased, which to some extent supported the prices of the rare earth market. The price trend of the light rare earth market was fluctuating.

Future Forecast: With the recovery of rare earth raw material supply in the later stage, the ordering and procurement of magnetic material enterprises will come to an end. It is expected that in the short term, the pressure on rare earth market prices will increase, and the rare earth market will remain mainly volatile; In the medium to long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, the global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average price of PS at the beginning of this week was 9566 yuan/ton, and the average price of PS at the weekend was 9700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.39% and a decrease of 7.32% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Mainstream brand quotation without tax reference: Zhenjiang Qimei PG33 quoted 9900 yuan/ton, Ningbo Taihua 535N quoted 10000 yuan/ton, Shanghai SECCO 123P quoted 9650 yuan/ton, Thai Petrochemical 150 quoted 9450-9500 yuan/ton, Guangzhou Petrochemical 525 quoted 9450-9500 yuan/ton, and Hong Kong Petrochemical 1841H had a shortage of goods.

The domestic PS market is on the rise, with an increase of 20-200 yuan/ton. Crude oil is on the rise, and the impact of styrene is on the rise. Coupled with the wait-and-see atmosphere in the theater, terminal follow-up is weak, merchants operate cautiously, and cost support is strong. The industry’s production reduction has led to a tight supply of goods in the market, and merchants are attempting to increase their light warehouses.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The cost of PS is supported, and transactions are improving. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic PS (polystyrene) market price will mainly fluctuate and tend to be strong.

Last week, domestic liquid ammonia continued to rise, with manufacturers’ quotations rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the main production area in Shandong increased by 5.50% this week. As of September 11, the trading center has moved up the range of 200 to 300 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 3700-3850 yuan/ton.

From the supply side perspective, the increase in liquid ammonia is mainly due to a shortage of supply in the main production areas in the north, resulting in a decrease in factory operating rates and a decline in production, which provides a positive impact on the market. Some devices in the northern region are still undergoing maintenance, and the impact of production restrictions in Shanxi and other regions has not faded, causing short-term low operating rates and tight supply for enterprises. There is a widespread phenomenon of vehicles queuing up for goods in production enterprises. The manufacturer’s quotation has been raised multiple times, and as of September 11th, the cumulative increase has reached over 400 yuan/ton. The dealer’s offer naturally rose.

On the demand side, downstream urea, compound fertilizers and other fields just need stable support, coupled with an increase in fertilizer usage in autumn, the market releases a certain amount of growth. Overall, agricultural demand follows up in a timely manner, while industrial demand is mainly supported by immediate demand. However, there are not many new export orders, which may become a limiting factor for the rise of liquid ammonia in the later stage.

Prediction: Liquid ammonia analysts from Business Society believe that the tight supply of liquid ammonia is difficult to improve in the short term, especially the imbalance between regions that may lead to a widening price difference between regions. Prices in the northern region will still remain high, and there may still be room for upward movement in liquid ammonia prices even with little change in demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of toluene has slightly increased recently (9.1-9.11). On September 11th, the benchmark price of toluene was 8240 yuan/ton, while on September 1st, the benchmark price was 8090 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.85%.

Strong cost support for toluene due to significant increase in crude oil prices

Since September, crude oil futures have risen significantly. As of the 11th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures 10 contract was at $87.29 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures settled at $90.64 per barrel for the 11 contract. OPEC+, an oil producing country, is rumored to have extended production cuts. The market expects an additional 1 million barrels of production reduction from Saudi Arabia to continue until December, while Russia’s crude oil production reduction will continue until December. Supply tightening is expected to continue to ferment and boost the oil market; In addition, the weakening of the US dollar has led to a rebound in oil market valuations and the potential impact of storms in the US Gulf on energy supply, which is a positive factor supporting international oil prices.

Rising prices of refined oil and high demand for refinery operations support toluene

Recently, some merchants have a decent restocking mentality, and their main outsourcing has increased, while refinery inventory has remained low; In addition, supported by the upcoming Double Festival in the later stage, some manufacturers may stock up in advance. The operating rate of domestic main refineries remains at a high level, and the supply side is relatively loose, which to some extent suppresses gasoline prices. The combination of long and short factors has led to high and fluctuating gasoline market conditions. Recently, the price trend of the diesel market has been relatively strong. On the one hand, crude oil cost support still exists, which is beneficial for the domestic refined oil market. On the other hand, the third batch of export quotas for Chinese refined oil has finally been implemented, further loosening the control of domestic refined oil exports. Under the stimulation of high profits, the enthusiasm of finished oil export units has increased, especially in the case of diesel or additional demand.

Downstream PX starts construction, 7 pairs of toluene have rigid support needed

The operating rate of PX in China is over 70%, but during the maintenance of some paraxylene units, spot supply is relatively normal. Driven by the rise in crude oil, PX’s external price trend has increased. As of the 7th, the closing prices in Asia are 1081-1083 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1106-1108 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and due to the rise in crude oil prices, the domestic xylene market price has risen.

Future forecast: International crude oil prices are operating at high levels, with support for the cost of toluene; Downstream products such as toluene and PX have a strong demand for support for toluene, but as the price of toluene rises, downstream gas purchases are slightly insufficient. In summary, it is expected that the toluene market will consolidate at a high level in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China is temporarily stable. As of the 11th, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10100 yuan/ton, which is the same as the 4th price of 10100 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 1.0%.

Supply side: Recently, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid has been temporarily stable. The mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid discussed in various regions of China is 10000-10400 yuan/ton. Recently, some devices have been shut down and waiting for market, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much. The order situation of manufacturers for hydrofluoric acid is average, with anhydrous hydrofluoric acid starting at around 60%. Some enterprises have accumulated inventory, and due to strong support from raw materials, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is mainly stable.

Cost side: The price trend of domestic fluorite has increased. As of the 11th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3193.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.20% compared to the 4th price of 3056.25 yuan/ton. The operating rate of fluorite enterprises remains low, and upstream mining is still tense. Backward mines will continue to be phased out, new mines will be added, and mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and fluorite mines are operating insufficient, resulting in environmental protection The requirements of emergency management departments and others are becoming stricter, and the difficulty of starting mining has increased. Affected by the tight supply of raw materials, the fluorite market is unlikely to improve in the short term, and the focus of spot negotiations is strengthening. Downstream enterprises follow up on demand, and cost support has maintained high prices in the hydrofluoric acid market.

Recently, the sulfuric acid market has maintained a high level. As of the 11th, the average domestic sulfuric acid price was 306 yuan/ton, slightly 1.92% lower than the 4th price of 312 yuan/ton. Although the sulfuric acid market price has slightly declined, overall it is at a high level. Downstream customers of sulfuric acid have a good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. The high price of sulfuric acid has boosted the domestic hydrofluoric acid market, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable.

On the demand side: The market trend of downstream refrigerant products at the terminal has increased, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has not changed much. The load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and downstream procurement needs to follow up. Some enterprises have absorbed quotas in advance, and the monthly average quantity of remaining quotas is relatively small. The price trend of R22 has increased. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price of R134a is rising. Some companies have a strong reluctance to sell, and there is currently no mentality to sell low-priced orders. Some businesses have a rising price trend, and the current cost is firm. Enterprises’ reluctance to sell has escalated. The current market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 25000 to 25500 yuan/ton. Supply and cost factors have driven refrigerant companies to have a clear intention to sell, and the refrigerant market trend has increased, To some extent, it is beneficial for the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid.

Future forecast: The market trend of upstream raw material fluorite has slightly increased, fluorite enterprises have a strong intention to increase prices, and the price of sulfuric acid has a downward trend; The market trend of the downstream refrigerant industry is rising, but refrigerant production remains at a low level. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst at Long Short Interleaved Business Society, believes that the stable price trend of the hydrofluoric acid market is the main trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of soda ash is relatively strong. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 2950 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average market price was 3000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.69% and a decrease of 13.21% compared to the same period last year. On September 7th, the light soda ash commodity index was 152.31, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 19.46% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 141.19% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of soda ash has remained strong this week. In the East China region, the operation of soda ash is relatively strong, and the mainstream market quotation for light soda ash is around 2900-3100 yuan/ton. In the East China region, the operation of soda ash is relatively strong, and the mainstream market quotation for light soda ash is around 2900-3100 yuan/ton. Data shows that the operating rate of soda ash this week is around 78%.

In terms of demand: According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of glass has slightly decreased, with an average market price of 23.69 yuan/square meter on Monday and 23.57 yuan/square meter on weekends. The price has decreased by 0.51%, with a year-on-year increase of 19.54%. The price of glass has been slightly adjusted, but there is still a demand for replenishment of soda ash.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, in the 35th week of 2023 (8.28-9.1), there were a total of 5 products that rose or fell in the chlor alkali industry price list, 0 products that fell, and 2 products that rose or fell to 0. The main commodities that have increased include: baking soda (10.13%), light soda ash (7.33%), and flake soda (2.90%); This week’s average rise and fall was 3.24%.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic price of soda ash is strong and operating. The supply of soda ash is tight, and there is still a demand for replenishment in the downstream of soda ash in the near future. Purchasing is relatively active, and it is expected that the price of soda ash will be strong in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of August 31, the average price of domestic transparent grade premium PMMA was 14625.00 yuan/ton. In July, the PMMA price remained stable and maintained around 14600 yuan/ton, with downstream procurement being the main demand and weak willingness to stock up. The overall negotiation atmosphere was flat.

In August, the domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA operated smoothly, while prices remained unchanged compared to the same period last month. The atmosphere of fashion negotiations was cold and the downstream demand was average, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. Currently, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is still around 14600 yuan/ton, and the operating rate is stable. The overall market supply and demand is balanced, with manufacturers offering discounts and taking orders. Downstream procurement is just in need.

Rubber and Plastic Index: On August 30th, the rubber and plastic index stood at 679 points, an increase of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 35.94% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 28.60% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that PMMA will mainly maintain stable operation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol fluctuated and increased in August. The average price of the mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol in China increased from 9350.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9733.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 4.10%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 2.34% year-on-year. On August 30th, the new pentanediol commodity index was 46.91, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 54.72% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 8.97% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream distributors of neopentyl glycol have slightly increased this month.

From a cost perspective, the market price of isobutyraldehyde slightly increased in August. The market price of isobutyraldehyde increased from 7900.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8083.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.32%. At the end of the month, prices increased by 12.27% year-on-year. The factory price of formaldehyde in China slightly increased in August. The factory price of formaldehyde has increased from 1140.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1216.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 6.73%. Overall, the upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, and due to the impact of supply and demand, the support for the price of neopentyl glycol has increased.

Looking at the future market, the overall trend of new pentanediol in mid to early September may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly. The upstream market for isobutyraldehyde and formaldehyde has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream paint market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

In August 2023, the domestic liquid ammonia market emerged from a trend of pre emptive suppression, with a decline at the beginning of the month, stable operation in the middle of the month, and a strong rise in the market in the latter half of the month. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the monthly increase in liquid ammonia is 1.89%.

At the beginning of the month, liquid ammonia reversed the previous month’s upward trend and briefly declined due to increased supply pressure. The main reason is that the supply in Shandong region has increased, and some of the faulty enterprises have resumed operation. The changes in construction are mainly concentrated in Shandong and Hubei, affecting the northern and central plains regions. Supply expectations are expected to perform leniently. The large number of imported goods arriving at the port has had an impact on the domestic liquid ammonia market. Large factories in Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, and other regions have repeatedly lowered factory prices this week, with a cumulative reduction of over 200 yuan/ton in the first week of August.

In the middle of the month, the market gradually stopped falling and stabilized, mainly due to the easing of supply pressure. On the one hand, the construction of the Northern Main Production Area Alliance and Mingshengda devices has been affected, resulting in a decline in production. And the postponement of resumption of production in Mingshui Dahua. The performance of the superimposed market demand is acceptable, with an increase in new orders and an improvement in supply and demand, enabling the ammonia market to stabilize and rebound.

In late October, liquid ammonia experienced another rise, mainly due to the tight supply performance in the main production areas in the north, which was supported by tight supply. Some devices in the northern region are still undergoing maintenance, and sudden production restrictions in regions such as Shanxi have led to a short-term decline in enterprise operating rates and tight supply. There is a widespread phenomenon of vehicles queuing up for goods in production enterprises. As of the week ending August 27th, the manufacturer’s quotation has been raised multiple times, with a cumulative increase of over 200 yuan/ton. The dealer’s offer naturally rose. The market did not continue until the end of the month. In the week of August 31st, liquid ammonia prices gradually stabilized and the market returned to rationality.

Future Market Forecast

In terms of supply, there are multiple units in Hebei, Henan, Yunnan, and the two lakes regions that are expected to recover, and the supply pressure in the later stage cannot be underestimated. Currently, some units in Shandong have been reduced in quantity to hedge against supply pressure. Further device reduction will not be ruled out in the later stage.

On the demand side, agricultural demand is mainly light, while some compound fertilizers remain in high demand. Especially in the industrial sector, the performance is poor, and the operating rate of enterprises is still showing a downward trend due to the decline in profits. There will also be some pressure on later demand.

Overall, liquid ammonia analysts from Business Society believe that the supply and demand structure of liquid ammonia may reverse, and a pattern of oversupply may form. Therefore, it is expected that there will be some room for a pullback in liquid ammonia next month.