According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market experienced a volatile decline in July 2025. From July 1st to 30th, the domestic toluene market price fell from 5820 yuan/ton to 5490 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 5.67% during the period.

Early October: The toluene market fluctuated and rose in this cycle, and the supply in Shandong region was tight this week. Some enterprises stopped work for maintenance, and the market supply was significantly tight. The downstream oil blending industry has a decent enthusiasm for entering the market, but overall demand tends to be rigid. The East and South China regions have been affected by port conditions this week, resulting in tight supply. Supported by favorable supply side conditions, the overall market price has risen.
Mid cycle: Markets in various regions have generally declined this cycle. Due to weak demand in Shandong, refineries have frequently lowered their prices, resulting in a significant decline in prices. Later on, as prices continue to decline, downstream companies will replenish their inventory at low prices, and the shipment situation will improve significantly. Oil adjustment companies have good demand, while other industries tend to have rigid demand. The East China region was boosted by low inventory, resulting in a slight decrease in prices. The inventory in southern China is low, but downstream demand is weak, resulting in a slight decline in prices.
Late: Late: The domestic xylene market has rebounded slightly after an overall decline in this cycle, and the overall trend is weak. The decline in crude oil prices during the cycle has dragged down market sentiment. Downstream demand in Shandong region is relatively weak, and although refineries have voluntarily lowered their quotations, transactions are still limited. With downstream PX companies entering the market to replenish inventory, the market has slightly rebounded. The East China region still operates weakly, with low inventory levels. With the reduction of refinery listing prices and market downturn in southern China, downstream demand tends to be more rigid.
Cost wise: As of the 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $66.71 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $70.04 per barrel. During this round of price adjustment cycle, crude oil prices have mainly fluctuated. On the one hand, OPEC+is likely to complete its 2.2 million barrels per day production increase plan before the end of September. In addition, with the trade agreement reached between the United States and Japan, the international oil market trend has fallen slightly due to this news; On the other hand, there are still concerns in the market about the tariff negotiations between the United States and Europe, as well as factors such as the Middle East issue and disturbances in the European situation, causing the crude oil market to maintain a volatile trend.
Supply side:
Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of July 30th, East China Company quoted 5500 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5500 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5750-5800 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5550 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 31, 2025, the price of xylene sold by Sinopec Sales Company has temporarily stabilized, with a current price of 7250 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical, and other facilities are operating stably with normal sales, with a price reduction of 50 yuan/ton compared to June 29. As of July 30th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were 841-843 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 866-868 US dollars/ton CFR China, unchanged from June 27th.

Market forecast: The toluene market is mainly affected by supply and demand in the near future. Although some facilities have been restarted, most of them are for personal use and currently have no exports. There has been no significant change in the supply side recently. There has been no significant increase in demand recently, and the overall demand still leans towards rigid demand. Under the recent lack of significant changes in supply and demand, it is expected that the toluene market will mainly experience narrow range fluctuations, with limited room for both decline and rise. The focus will be on the trend of crude oil in the future.