According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 28th to 31st (as of 15:00), the price of methanol in the East China port market in China first increased from 2394 yuan/ton and then fell to around 2380 yuan/ton. The price fell by 0.59% during the cycle, 5.99% month on month, and 5.18% year-on-year. The domestic methanol market is showing signs of recovery. Northwest olefin factories are increasing their external procurement volume, coupled with favorable effects such as ongoing maintenance of some facilities and low inventory levels in enterprises. Upstream companies are selling at high prices, while downstream companies are passively following suit.
As of the close on August 1st, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2509 for methanol futures opened at 2403 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2417 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2385 yuan/ton. It closed at 2393 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 19 yuan or 0.79% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 505219 lots, with a position of 533076 and a daily increase of -31338.
On the cost side, coal supply has slightly decreased but the impact is limited, demand release is slow, and cost support is weak and stable. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
On the demand side, glacial acetic acid: The market price of glacial acetic acid is fluctuating, with a price increase of 50 yuan/ton at the Northwest factory. Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market continues to remain stable. The strength of raw material methanol has increased, resulting in higher costs. Dimethyl ether: The dimethyl ether market is running smoothly. Most downstream products have been affected by the rise in methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards favorable factors.
On the supply side, the overall recovery exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of July 30th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at a price of 332.50-333.50 US dollars per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 95-96 cents/gallon, down 1 cent/gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 245.5-246.5 euros/ton, up 7 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, enterprises have a clear willingness to raise prices, but traditional downstream industries are resistant to continuous price increases, which to some extent suppresses the room for price increases. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market is expected to strengthen and consolidate.