EPS lacks good support and prices fall

I. price trend

 

EPS market was generally stable, with some losses. Due to the lack of hot spots in the market, business offers are cautious and limited in operation. Although there is a small amount of replenishment in the terminal market, there is no intention for a large amount of demand, and the downstream is still in a wait-and-see attitude.

 

II. Market analysis

 

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EPS Market: EPS market price fell, Wuxi Xingda EPS factory price, ordinary material quotation is 9600 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of Dongying Hairong EPS is 9600 yuan / ton for common materials. The ex factory price of Jiangyin Hupao EPS is 9600 yuan / ton for common materials.

 

III. future forecast

 

EPS market performance is still sluggish, downstream factories are still purchasing on demand, and the intention of goods preparation is not high. At present, EPS market continues to be flat, and it is more difficult to maintain stability in the future. EPS market is expected to maintain a stable, moderate and soft trend.

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Cyclohexanone market price continued to decline (10.14-10.18)

I. price trend

 

This week, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to decline. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone producers at the beginning of the week was 8233 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week was 7900 yuan / ton, down 4.05% in the week. Compared with the same period last month, the price fell 10.99% month on month, down 39.23% year on year.

 

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II. Market analysis

 

Product: this week, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to decline. At the beginning of the week, the peripheral news was short, the listing price of raw material pure benzene was reduced by 150 yuan / ton, and the quotation of mainstream factories was continuously reduced due to inventory and shipment pressure, but the price of downstream caprolactam was reduced to suppress the purchase of chemical fiber single. On Thursday, Shenyuan and other caprolactam factories purchased large orders, and the market stopped falling and stabilized. Considering the maintenance of Hualu Hengsheng unit at the weekend, we will continue to pay attention to the raw material cost and the purchase of downstream chemical fiber orders. In terms of price, 7700-7800 yuan / ton cash bulk water will be sent for the main offer of cyclohexanone market in North China and Shandong, 8100-8300 yuan / ton cash in East China and 8300-8400 yuan / ton cash in South China.

 

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene, domestic pure benzene market rose. The price of external market is mainly rising, and CFR China’s price rise drives the domestic market. Crude oil prices rose at the end of the day, the East China market opened higher, the market price continued to rise, and the downstream styrene also showed a rising trend. However, downstream demand remains weak, and the market is generally positive. The downstream recovery speed is less than expected, and the buying enthusiasm is not good. It is estimated that the short-term pure benzene market will be consolidated within the range.

 

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Caprolactam: the domestic caprolactam market continues to be weak, the atmosphere in the market continues to be light, the upstream pure benzene market continues to be weak, the cost support is limited, the low-cost shipment of the downstream polymerization plant has improved, but the transaction is still more rigid, the polymerization plant part still has certain inventory pressure, the raw material purchase is cautious and on demand, the wait-and-see mood of the industry remains unchanged, the short-term domestic caprolactam market is still or partial. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of terminal receiving mood and the dynamic of manufacturers. The main quotation of East China solid market is 12100-12600 yuan / ton, and the cash will be delivered. The transaction volume of East China liquid market is around 11800-12000 yuan / ton, which will be delivered by acceptance.

 

Adipic acid: the domestic adipic acid market is weak and volatile, the weak atmosphere in the market is diffuse, the downstream demand is sluggish and hard to change, the inquiry continues to be light, the mentality of traders is short, the initial inventory is sold at a low price, and it is expected that the adipic acid market will be narrowed in the future.

 

III. future forecast

 

In terms of enterprises, Hualu Hengsheng overhauls, industry operating rate drops, raw material pure benzene, crude oil uncertainty and Sino US trade relations will still affect the market, but the recovery of terminal demand is slow, and the market is expected to fluctuate next week. The operation rate of downstream caprolactam was maintained. It is necessary to pay attention to the operation of the unit and the demand of the chemical fiber single. The analysis of cyclohexanone in the business community is expected that there will be pressure on the domestic caprolactam market or internal finishing in the next week.

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This week, China’s domestic n-butanol market was temporarily stable (10.14-10.18)

I. price trend

 

According to the data of business agency, the average price of n-butanol as of Friday (October 18) of this week is 6350 yuan / ton (including tax), which is basically the same as that of Monday (October 14). At present, the mainstream price of n-butanol in China is about 6300-6600 yuan / ton.

 

II. Market analysis

 

Product: this week, the domestic n-butanol market tends to be stable as a whole, and the overall market price tends to be stable and weak. Affected by the load reduction of some units, the supply volume is reduced, and the manufacturer’s price is relatively high. The downstream is still just in need of replenishment or bargain hunting. The trading atmosphere has improved. At present, the quotation of Shandong lihuayi n-butanol is 6350 yuan / ton; the collective pricing price of Luxi Chemical today is 6300 yuan / ton; the quotation of Shandong fengcang Chemical Co., Ltd. for distribution of n-butanol is 6400 yuan / ton; the quotation of Ningbo Haorui Co., Ltd. for distribution of n-butanol is 6400 yuan / ton.

 

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Industrial chain: as of October 18, the overall price of propylene market in Shandong continued to decline. At the beginning of this week, there was a small increase on the 14th and 15th, which held steady on the 16th. Most enterprises began to decline on the 17th. As of today, they continue to decline by 50 yuan / ton. At present, the market turnover is about 7380-7700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7400 yuan / ton. At present, most of the downstream product prices of propylene show a downward trend, and the support of the demand side is weakened. Refinery inventory pressure increases, shipment is not smooth, downstream procurement is cold, it is expected that the market price of propylene may still decline in recent days.

 

III. future forecast

 

According to the analysis of the data division of the business club, the recent n-butanol market has been affected by the support surface or continues to be weak, maintaining stability and consolidation.

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The price of sulphuric acid in Shandong rose slightly this week (10.7-10.11)

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the selling price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. The quotation rose from 243.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 253.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 4.11%, down 51.52% from the same period last year. Overall, sulfuric acid rose this week, with the sulfuric acid commodity index at 39.43 on October 11.

II. Market Analysis

(1) Products:

This week, the price of the main sulphuric acid producers in Shandong rose slightly, with fewer inventories and fewer downstream demand. The weekend quotation of Heze Jiangyuan is 240 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu is 70 yuan/ton at the weekend, which is 30 yuan/ton higher than the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei is 450 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable.

(2) Industrial chain:

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Recently, the domestic sulfur market has rebounded, the downstream ammonium Market Trading atmosphere is not good, the transaction is light, the new single transaction is not ideal, the diammonium market is also low consolidation, the downstream demand is less, sulfuric acid enterprises send more early orders, short-term start is insufficient, the supply is slightly tight. This week, domestic sulphuric acid plants run smoothly, market supply is relatively tight, downstream gas purchases are general, market turnover is limited.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the adjustment in September, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. Upstream sulfur prices rebounded, National Day has passed, downstream construction increased, downstream purchasing willingness increased, and products went up under the contradiction between supply and demand. Business sulfuric acid analysts believe that the short-term Shandong market in supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of the sulfuric acid market tends to rise.

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The market of the industrial chain has fallen and the market of o-benzenes has remained weak and stable after the festival.

Price trends:

According to the data monitoring of business associations, after the festival, Sinopec’s execution quotation of O-Benzene is stable, while the market of O-Benzene is weak and stable. As of October 12, the executed contract price of O-xylene Sinopec was 6900.00 yuan/ton, which was more stable than the pre-season (September 30) price of O-xylene of 6900.00 yuan/ton. Prices fell by 8.00% over the same period last year. The price of o-benzene maintained stability after the festival, the market of o-benzene went down, and the market of o-benzene was weak and stable after the festival.

II. Market analysis:

Product analysis

Commodity Name, Quotation Type, Port, Weekly Price, Weekly Price, Unit
O-xylene FOB Gulf of Mexico 882.00 870.98 11.02 US dollars/ton
O-xylene CFR China 800.00 805.00-5.00 Euro/ton
O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia 835.00 855.00-20.00 US dollars/ton
O-xylene FOB Korea 795.00 805.00-10.00 US dollars/ton
O-xylene FOB Rotterdam 860.00 860.00 USD/t
2010.10 Business Association www.100ppi.com
After the festival, the external quotation of neighbouring benzene fell sharply, while the external quotation of China fell by $5 per ton. In South Korea, the quotation of benzene in Southeast Asia fell by 10 US dollars per ton and 20 US dollars per ton respectively. The price of imported phenyl fell, the price of port phenyl fell, the stock of port was low, and the negative pressure of future market phenyl market increased. Phase II of Hainan Refinery and Chemical Co., Ltd. started operation, Luoyang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. suspended shipment due to faults, Jinling Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped production and maintenance of phenyl equipment, phenyl supply was temporarily stable, the shortage of phenyl was alleviated, and the good momentum of phenyl market in the future was weakened.

Factor Analysis of Industrial Chain

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After the festival, the price of mixed xylene fell sharply, the price of raw materials fell sharply, the cost of o-phenyl fell, the market of o-phenyl was negative, and the downward pressure of o-phenyl price increased in the future. Overall, the cost of o-phenyl declined, and the future market is not good for o-phenyl.
After the festival, the price of phthalic anhydride fell sharply, downstream demand declined, the demand gap of phthalic anhydride decreased, the market was positive, and the driving force of phthalic anhydride rise weakened. As for plasticizers, DOP market fell, and downward pressure increased. Downstream market of phenyl was negative. The driving force of phenyl rise weakened and downward pressure increased.

3. Future market forecast:

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business community’s o-xylene data, believes that after the festival, the market of o-xylene has increased rapidly and the price of o-xylene has remained stable. The price of raw materials mixed xylene has fallen sharply, the cost of phthalic anhydride and plasticizer has fallen sharply downstream, and the negative pressure on the market of phthalic anhydride has increased as the market of industrial chain has fallen. As for the start-up rate of phenyl plants, the second phase of Hainan Refinery and Chemical Co., Ltd. started operation, the failure of Luoyang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. suspended shipment, Jinling Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped production and maintenance of phenyl equipment, and the start-up of phenyl equipment was low and stable; as for the external market, the quotation of phenyl external market declined slightly, while the port stock increased, but it was still at a low level, which was advantageous to domestic phenyl market. In summary, the downward and downward trend of the o-xylene industry chain has declined, but the market for o-xylene is negative; the low starting rate of o-xylene equipment has been maintained, the supply of o-xylene has remained stable, the supply of o-xylene is still slightly inadequate, and the o-xylene industry has a certain positive momentum; the overall market for o-xylene is mixed, the momentum for the rise of the price of o-xylene in the future market has weakened, and the pressure for the decline has increased, and the market

Future markets should focus on: the start-up of phthalic manufacturers, phthalic port inventory, downstream phthalic anhydride and plasticizer market. Attention can be paid to the cost of o-benzene.

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Coking coal customs clearance is expected to narrow in October, and prices may continue to be strong in the latter period.

On September 29, the coking coal commodity index was 112.79, which was the same as yesterday. It was 7.19% lower than the cyclical peak of 121.53 points (2019-03-12), and 151.15% higher than the lowest point of 44.91 on January 28, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-01 to date).

In September 30th, the domestic coking coal market prices remained stable. The market prices of coking coal (Jiao Jingmei) in Tangshan, Hebei were temporarily stable, the mainstream price was about 1530 yuan / ton, and the coking coal market was still acceptable. The market price of coking coal (Jiao Jingmei) is temporarily stable, the mainstream price is about 1515 yuan / ton, and the coking coal market is acceptable. The market price of Jiao Mei (main market) is temporarily stable, the mainstream price is about 1530 yuan / ton, and the transaction of refining Jiao Mei market is acceptable.

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The domestic coking coal market is stable before the beginning of the summer, and is affected by the replenishment of downstream stocks. The sales situation is still good, and the quality resources are basically free from inventory. Before the national day, the number of coal mines and coal washery factories is much larger than before, and the supply market is tight before the national holidays. This is an important reason for the relatively strong price of coking coal. Oven stops production more, coke demand has declined significantly, the initial increase has been temporarily over, after the festival, attention should be paid to the re-production of blast furnace in steel plant. To sum up, the impact of the national day limit on the production of coal mines will reduce the supply side of the supply side, and have a certain support for the stable price of the coking coal market. But considering the limited production of the downstream coking steel enterprises and the downstream inventory problem, the market has not seen a fundamental rise.

In terms of demand, power plant consumption remains stable, and the inventory pressure of power plant remains at the middle and high levels. With the passing of the summer electricity peak, the inventory pressure of coal stockpiling is likely to increase.

The market outlook shows that the domestic coking coal mine has stable operation rate and stable output. Although China’s domestic coal import policy has been limited recently, the import of coking coal still shows a growth trend from the point of view of customs clearance data. Therefore, the market is strong before the holiday. With the continuous increase of the policy intensity, the delayed effect will appear or the coking coal clearance volume is expected to shrink. On the other hand, considering the relaxation of traffic control after the festival, the local supply pressure will be eased to a certain extent, which also has some shortcomings. It is estimated that the coking coal market after the festival may maintain a strong trend of shocks.

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The price of hydrochloric acid in North China was stable this week (9.23-9.27)

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China was temporarily stable this week, offering 166.67 yuan/ton, up 29.88% from the same period last year. Overall, the hydrochloric acid market was stable this week, with the hydrochloric acid commodity index of 343.86 on September 27.

II. Market Analysis

(1) Products:

This week, the quotation of hydrochloric acid market manufacturers is temporarily stable and the overall market is low. Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid quotation is 150 yuan/ton, the quotation is temporarily stable; Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid weekend quotation is 230 yuan/ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid quotation is 200 yuan/ton, the quotation is temporarily stable; Dezhou Meihua hydrochloric acid quotation is 70 yuan/ton, the quotation is temporarily stable.

(2) Industrial chain:

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The price of liquid chlorine in the upstream market is stable, which supports hydrochloric acid. The downstream dyes, calcium chloride and chloroethane still buy hydrochloric acid on demand in the early stage. The hydrochloric acid market as a whole is still weak. By-product acid shocks the market. The pressure of hydrochloric acid shipment is high. The quality of by-product hydrochloric acid produced by TDI, chloropropene, propylene oxide and methane chloride is relatively good. For the purpose of shipment, each manufacturer has the situation of inverted freight shipment. Overall, the difficulty of delivery of hydrochloric acid is still a major problem.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. Business analysts believe that the upstream liquid chlorine is good in the near future, but the downstream demand for rare earth and fuel is still general, and by-product acid shocks the market. Business analysts believe that the late hydrochloric acid market is still more vulnerable to consolidation.

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Ethylene external market fell this week (9.23-9.27)

Price trends:

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the external price of ethylene fell this week. The average price of ethylene at the weekend was $929.50/ton, down 1.98% from $948.25/ton at the beginning of the week and 3.78% from the same period last year.

Market analysis:

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Products: Ethylene overall fell this week. Asian ethylene market prices tumbled, with CFR closing at $848-854 per ton in Northeast Asia and $798-804 per ton in Southeast Asia by the end of the weekend. European ethylene market prices fell. By the end of the weekend, European ethylene market prices were $1081-1093 per ton for FD in Northwest Europe and $974-985 per ton for CIF in Northwest Europe. Ethylene prices in the United States fell, and by the end of the weekend, prices were between $539 and $551 per ton. Overall, crude oil prices in the upstream showed a volatile decline, and the overall ethylene market fell. Businessmen pay more attention to the situation of supply and demand after the festival.

International aspect: On September 26, the price of WTI crude oil futures market rose to 56.41 US dollars per barrel, down 0.08 US dollars, or 0.1%. Brent crude oil futures prices rose by a large margin to 62.74 US dollars per barrel, up 0.35 US dollars. The increase was 0.6%. On Thursday, the Pentagon announced that the United States would send more Patriot Missile Company, radar and about 200 support personnel to Saudi Arabia, raising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Concerns about rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have boosted market sentiment and oil prices. However, the positive boost of ethylene has not been clearly demonstrated. The price of downstream styrene declined slightly and the price of ethanol remained stable, which could not support the price of ethylene.

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3. Future market forecast:

Ethylene analysts from Business Society Chemical Branch believe that the price of crude oil fell due to the rise of crude oil inventories in the earlier period, which failed to support the cost side of the ethylene market and the price of ethylene market fell. Next, due to the geopolitical tension in the Middle East, the changes in supply and demand in the crude oil market need further observation. The market is mainly guided by information. In the medium and long term, the supply side of the market is relatively good, so business association data analysts expect ethylene prices to keep rising narrowly in the future.

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The supply of polyacrylamide is tightening this week but prices are stable (2019.9.16-20)

Commodity Index: On September 20, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 99.80, which was the same as yesterday. It was 6.84% lower than the peak of 107.13 points in the cycle (2019-05-08), and 4.26% higher than the low of 95.72 points on April 10, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

Price quotation: According to the monitoring data of the Business Association (100ppi.com), on September 16, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cationic) market was about 16333.33 yuan/ton, and on September 20, 16333.33 yuan/ton. At present, the main quotation range of domestic market of polyacrylamide is: cationic (PAM, molecular weight 12 million) quotation is about 16200-18100 yuan/ton, anionic (PAM, molecular weight 12 million) quotation is about 10000-12100 yuan/ton. Prices are basically stable.

Industry chain: It is understood that in mid-September, the price of acrylonitrile in the upstream mainstream is about 12300-12500 yuan/ton, with a small fluctuation in the market. The downstream demand for polyacrylamide is stable, because the manufacturers in Gongyi, Henan Province, which is the main production area in China, are still in the shutdown period, and have been shut down for more than a month, the supply of goods is relatively tight, the manufacturers give priority to the old customers, the market development of new customers is delayed or suspended, and the external prices of some manufacturers are raised to varying degrees according to the situation of the supply.

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Industry: 1. Notice of shutdown: On July 26, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises of Yongan Road Street Office in Gongyi City, Henan Province received the “Notice of shutdown”. The notice requests: According to the analysis of the environmental pollution situation and the future polluted weather situation in the city, the municipal attack and fortification office requires all the enterprises to stop production and control before acceptance. Production can be restored after dispatching or acceptance. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: resumption of production in August for 10 days and resumption of production on 15 days. According to the manufacturer, the suspension was more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on 8 September. The local environmental protection inspection was strict. All local enterprises in Gongyi were asked to stop production for environmental protection management and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers were not notified of the start of construction. Strict environmental protection inspections were under way. According to the manufacturers, the current shortage of goods was aggravated after the National Day of the Eleventh National Day.

Attachment: Gongyi City, Henan Province, issued a circular on the deep management of enterprise shutdown (see below):

Future forecast: Although the relevant manufacturers in Gongyi City, Henan Province, as the main production area, are still in the period of suspension at present, the inventory of the manufacturers maintains the demand of the old customers and the supply is gradually tight, but the impact on the price is not obvious this week; some manufacturers are indeed tightened because of the stock, and have been prompted to follow-up price increases.

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China’s Domestic liquid ammonia market is stable, with a slight increase in Shandong (9.16-20)

This week, according to the monitoring of business associations, the domestic market for liquid ammonia is stable and small. Some enterprises in Shandong have slightly increased by 50-100 yuan/ton. At present, local ammonia volume is tense, and there is no pressure for enterprises to ship goods. However, manufacturers with large ammonia volume are mainly stable in price. The mainstream quotation in Shandong is 2900-3100 yuan/ton.

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In North China, liquid ammonia also increased slightly, with an increase of 50 yuan per ton. The market is mainly affected by the shortage of ammonia in Shanxi. Due to the limited tasks in Hebei, there are some obstacles in the market supply. Enterprises are also pushing up prices. The mainstream quotation in Hebei is 2800-3000 yuan/ton.

In mid-September, in view of the pressure of environmental protection, production restriction, active shipment from suppliers and relatively stable market transactions, the quotation of manufacturers in central China is maintained at around 2950-3100 yuan/ton and in Northwest China at around 2650-2700 yuan/ton.

In the future, business associations believe that the market may remain narrow fluctuations in the short term. Due to the impact of transportation before the festival, manufacturers’inventories may be pushed up in the short term, while prices rise, there are certain risks.

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