According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of April 15, 2024, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 8016 yuan/ton. Compared with April 1, 2024 (reference price of butanone was 8033 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21%.

In early April, the overall performance of the domestic butanone market fluctuated narrowly with a slight decline. At the beginning of April, the domestic butanone market remained stable and operated steadily. After returning from the Qingming Festival, the butanone market has been fluctuating for 7 days. In some regions, the shipment of butanone in the market is average, but due to the increased inventory pressure after the festival, the shipment has been narrowly discounted. On the 8th, the butanone market experienced a slight correction, with an adjustment range of 50-100 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the overall consolidation and operation of the butanone market were the main focus. As of April 15th, the domestic market price of butanone is around 7900-8400 yuan/ton.

Fundamental analysis

In terms of supply: Currently, some of the early parking devices in the butanone field have been repaired and started operation. In the later stage, the overall supply of the butanone market may increase, but some other devices also have parking and maintenance plans in the future. Therefore, it is expected that the production increment of the butanone market is limited in the short term.

In terms of demand: Currently, in the downstream slurry of butanone, the operation of large factories is relatively stable, and the demand for raw materials is stable. Some small and medium-sized factories have maintained low operation due to insufficient demand orders. In terms of adhesives, the overall order volume in the silicone adhesive market is average, while the downstream raw adhesive market is weak, putting pressure on overall shipments. In the short term, the positive support provided by bottom-up demand for butanone is not significant.

In terms of exports, domestic demand provides limited support for butanone, therefore, the export market will also be the focus of attention for the future butanone market. It is rumored that there may be maintenance plans for Japanese butanone plants in the second quarter, and the export volume of domestic butanone may increase. The boost in exports can greatly drive the domestic butanone market.

Market analysis of butanone

At present, the trading atmosphere on the butanone site is light, and downstream users are mainly on demand for procurement, with limited incremental new orders on the site. Overall, the Butanone Data Analyst from Business Society believes that in the later stage, if the positive effects on the export of Butanone can be gradually released, there is still a slight upward momentum in the Butanone market. However, the support from domestic demand for the Butanone market is generally average, and the overall upward trend of the Butanone market is limited. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand news.

The antimony ingot market in East China remained stable from April 8th to April 15th, 2024, with prices remaining stable at 91250 yuan/ton this week.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has not fluctuated much recently.

This week’s European strategic small metal antimony price situation (unit: USD/ton)

Variety/ April 8th/ April 15th/ Rise and fall

European small metal antimony/ 12850./12950./+100

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has slightly increased, reaching $12950/ton as of April 15th, with an increase of $100/ton.

This week, the antimony ingot market continued to maintain a temporary stable operation. From the perspective of supply, smelting enterprises are currently maintaining normal production. The supply of antimony ingots is relatively stable, but the mining end still maintains a tight pattern. As a result, smelters still have a strong mentality of price support, and the market supply is tight. In terms of demand, downstream industries such as antimony oxide have shown a relatively stable trend in recent times. Enterprises are replenishing their inventory according to demand and maintaining essential procurement. As the May Day holiday approaches, it is expected that there will be a wave of stocking demand in the downstream before the holiday. Driven by the rebound in European antimony ingot prices, market sentiment has slightly improved. In the future, Business Society believes that the demand for downstream holiday restocking will drive a brief rise in the market, and the market will maintain a stable, medium to strong trend in the near future. In the future, the focus will be on the consumption situation of the photovoltaic industry and the impact of environmental policies on the market.

This week, the antimony oxide market remained temporarily stable, while the spot market was weak. Downstream demand replenishment was maintained, and market prices were affected by the stability of the antimony ingot market, with most remaining temporarily stable.

Industry data:

On April 14th, the base metal index was 1269 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 21.47% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 97.66% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On April 14th, the non-ferrous index was 1186 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 22.89% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 95.39% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 15th week of 2024 (4.8-4.12), there were a total of 11 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there were 2 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were tin (5.64%), zinc (5.22%), and silver (4.32%). There are a total of 9 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are dysprosium oxide (-1.96%), praseodymium metal (-1.89%), and praseodymium neodymium oxide (-1.28%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.64%.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of dichloroethane in China on April 12th was 2726 yuan/ton, and on April 1st, the average market price of dichloroethane in China was 2760 yuan/ton. The price of dichloroethane decreased by 1.21% within the month.

2、 Analysis and Review

In early April, the dichloroethane market continued its downward trend in late March, with a narrow decline. The trading atmosphere in the market was still good, and downstream procurement weakened, with primary demand procurement.

Cost wise: In early April, the Asian ethylene market remained stable with an average CFR price of $930 per ton in Northeast Asia. The domestic ethylene quotation in East China is 7500 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the beginning of the month.

Demand side: The domestic PVC market lacks domestic demand power, and the downstream real estate industry is still in a weak state with high inventory. At present, the quotation for ethylene based PVC in the East China region is 6000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, and the market continues to fluctuate at a low level.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s dichloroethane analyst believes that the cost side market is stable, and the demand side is weak, making it difficult to drive the dichloroethane market. It is expected that the price of dichloroethane will continue to be weak in the near future.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of April 11, 2024, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was 14500 yuan/ton. Compared with April 1 (organic silicon DMC reference was 15260 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.98%.

From the data detection chart of the organic silicon DMC products of the Business Society, it can be seen that in early April, the domestic organic silicon DMC market showed a weak decline. After the Qingming Festival, the decline in the organic silicon DMC market has not stopped, and the overall negotiation focus of organic silicon DMC continues to move towards a low level. As of April 11th, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference is around 14000-15000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 3.72% in the five days after the festival.

Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of demand: Since April, there has been no significant improvement in downstream demand for organic silicon DMC. After the holiday, the trading atmosphere on the organic silicon DMC site remains weak, and downstream demand has not been boosted well. The demand side has dragged down the focus of the organic silicon DMC market and continued to decline.

On the supply side, there are relatively few new orders in the organic silicon DMC field, and the inquiry atmosphere on the field is light. The inventory of the organic silicon DMC factory continues to accumulate, and the overall supply pressure continues to rise, making it difficult for the supply side to provide effective support to the market.

In terms of cost: Currently, the metal silicon market on the raw material side is weak and declining, so the cost support for organic silicon DMC on the cost side continues to loosen.

Prediction of the future trend of organic silicon DMC market

At present, the demand for organic silicon DMC on the market remains cautious, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment and some concerns about future inventory. However, the current market price has continued to decline and has also dropped to a lower level. For downstream users who have already digested some inventory, appropriate bargain hunting and stocking orders may increase. The organic silicon DMC data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mainly undergo narrow adjustments, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of acetic acid has recently fallen. As of April 8th, 25% liquid sodium acetate in China was priced at 803 yuan per ton, a decrease of 24 yuan per ton from 82 yuan per ton at the beginning of the month.

From the perspective of raw materials, the overall price of soda ash has been weak since April. With the completion of orders in hand by alkali plants and poor follow-up of new orders, the price of soda ash has recently adjusted narrowly, resulting in a weak and stable market.

At present, the manufacturer’s inventory of raw material acetic acid is still available, with downstream rigid demand procurement being the main focus. The market stabilized in early April.

Analysts from Shengyishe Sodium Acetate Data believe that insufficient upstream support has led to a weak upward trend in sodium acetate prices in April. It is expected that the focus of the sodium acetate market will remain stable in the future, with narrow consolidation being the main focus.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the BOPP market price fluctuated and declined narrowly this week. As of April 6th, domestic producers and traders have reached 18 μ The mainstream quoted price of BOPP film for m is around 9583.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 0.26% from last week’s average price and about 0.26% from the beginning of the month’s average price.

quotations analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP has fluctuated and increased this month. The mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 7785.71 yuan/ton, an increase of about 0.28% compared to last week. The price of raw material PP has slightly increased, and the cost support of raw materials for BOPP prices is still ongoing.

Supply: The operating load rate of membrane enterprises is still at a relatively high level, about 53%. The supply side is sufficient, and the inventory pressure of membrane enterprises increases.

In terms of demand: Downstream enterprises mostly replenish essential goods, with less replenishment and low transaction volume. They tend to remain wait-and-see, with weak trading volume and weak market demand for price support

Future Market Forecast

The overall stability of upstream raw material prices is relatively strong, and the cost side still provides support for the market. However, downstream demand enterprises are mostly just in need of replenishment, and transactions are weak. It is expected that BOPP prices will experience narrow fluctuations and consolidation in the near future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic market price of ortho phthalic anhydride slightly decreased in March. As of the end of the month, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 7587.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.30% from the beginning of the month price of 7687.5 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.03%

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Supply side: Stable operation of the device and sufficient supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is very abundant, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is poor. In addition, the supply of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has slightly declined, which has affected the price of ortho phthalic anhydride slightly.

Cost side: Stable price of ortho benzene with acceptable cost support

In March, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene remained stable. As of the end of the month, the price of ortho benzene was 8100 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged from the beginning of the month at 8100 yuan/ton. The supply of ortho benzene was normal, and the operation of on-site facilities was stable. In the short term, the trend of crude oil prices declined, while the price of mixed xylene remained stable. The temporary stability of ortho benzene prices provided some cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the price decline of the phthalic anhydride market was limited.

On the demand side: The on-demand procurement market in the DOP market has significantly declined

In March, the price trend of downstream DOP market significantly declined, with a price of 10050 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a 14.69% decrease from the price of 11780 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Domestic DOP enterprises started operating generally, and domestic DOP supply was sufficient. However, plasticizer enterprises still suffered losses in profits, and downstream demand was poor. The mainstream price of DOP was 10000-10100 yuan/ton, and the downstream DOP price trend significantly decreased. For the poor procurement of phthalic anhydride, the domestic phthalic anhydride market price trend slightly declined.

Looking at the future market, the recent trend of crude oil prices is mainly fluctuating, while the price of ortho xylene is temporarily stable. At the end of the month, the downstream DOP market trend is rising. In addition, phthalic anhydride manufacturers have reported serious losses, and it is expected that the market price of ortho xylene may slightly increase in the future.

The market for nitrile rubber slightly increased in March. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 31st, the price was 15450 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.48% from 15225 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In March, the prices of butadiene and acrylonitrile raw materials for nitrile rubber slightly increased, and the cost center of nitrile rubber slightly increased; The low demand for downstream rubber hoses, insulation foam and other industries in the nitrile rubber industry is a strong support for the demand for nitrile. Stable operation of nitrile rubber equipment; The market situation of nitrile rubber has slightly increased. As of March 31st, the mainstream market price of Lanhua Nitrile 3305 in East China is 14500-14600 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of Nandi Nitrile 1052 is 17300~17500 yuan/ton; Shunze nitrile 3355 mainstream reported 15500~15600 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of Cebu nitrile 3365 is 14300-14400 yuan/ton.

In March, the domestic nitrile rubber plant started construction with overall stability.

In March, the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile slightly increased, and the cost of nitrile rubber continued to support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 31st, the price of butadiene was 11525 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.88% from 11095 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of March 31st, the price of acrylonitrile was 9937 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.47% from 9512 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In March, the production of downstream nitrile rubber hoses in China remained at a low level of around 60-6.2%, and the production of rubber insulation foam was around 60-6.5%. The demand for nitrile rubber has strong support.

Market forecast: Business Society nitrile analyst believes that the downstream production of nitrile rubber is stable, but the high operating costs of butadiene and acrylonitrile support the strong cost of nitrile rubber. Overall, it is expected that the nitrile rubber market may continue to rise slightly in the later stage.

The acrylic acid market rose in March. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 27th, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China was 6425.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.63% compared to March 1st (the reference price of acrylic acid was 6200 yuan/ton).

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that the price of acrylic acid in the early stage of the month fell, mainly due to the dragging of the market by the demand side, slow follow-up of terminal demand, limited downstream new order transactions, poor receiving sentiment, and poor shipment of acrylic acid enterprises, with some discounts to promote transactions. With the rise in raw material propylene prices and increased cost pressure, some equipment on the supply side has been shut down for maintenance, leading to a decrease in industry capacity utilization. The quotes from major manufacturers have been raised, supporting the market’s price push mentality. Low priced goods on the market have decreased, and downstream inquiries are still promising. Buying continues with a strong demand for follow-up, and actual market transactions are average. As the end of the month approaches, some devices undergo maintenance and there is a shortage of spot supply, resulting in a favorable market trend on the supply side.

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price of propylene on March 26th was 6690.60, a decrease of 2.62% compared to March 1st (6870.75). The raw material propylene operated in a narrow range in March, and the cost side pressure of the acrylic acid market still exists.

According to the acrylic acid analyst from Business Society, the current cost impact is limited, and supply side support is temporarily in place. Downstream demand for high priced raw materials follows suit, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude towards them. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will remain strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to changes in supply side operations.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of March 25, 2024, the factory price reference for domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate is 3900 yuan/ton. Compared with March 20 (reference price for dimethyl carbonate is 3866 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.86%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that at the end of March (3.20-3.25), the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a slight upward trend. Currently, the overall downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate has been boosted, and the overall demand side has provided some market support for the dimethyl carbonate market. The pressure on on-site supply of dimethyl carbonate has been reduced, and the overall inventory supply is controllable. The mentality of the industry is mild. As of March 25th, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is based on around 3750-4000 yuan/ton.

Future analysis

At present, the demand for electrolytes and solvents downstream of dimethyl carbonate is performing well, and the overall shipment of dimethyl carbonate is good. The accumulation situation in the early stage has been alleviated, and the overall operating rate of downstream has also increased. According to the dimethyl carbonate data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mainly operate steadily with a strong trend, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.