1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 31st, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1997 yuan/ton, which is 5.55% higher than the reference average price of 1892 yuan/ton on March 1st.
2、 Market analysis
Supply and demand situation
This month, the domestic urea market price trend is dominant. The domestic urea market prices fell in the first half of this month. Downstream on-demand procurement, market transaction atmosphere is flat, and new order follow-up is limited. In mid to late this month, domestic urea prices began to continue to rise. The urea market has seen positive transactions, with active shipments from enterprises and reduced inventory levels. The downstream operating rate has increased, and the new order volume has also increased. Agricultural demand remains stable, while industrial demand has significantly increased.
market conditions
As of March 31st, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1915-1950 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1920-1960 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1950-1980 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1940-1970 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market trend has been strong and rising recently. At present, the transaction volume in the urea market is improving, and the cautious mentality of downstream replenishment has increased after continuous increases. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic urea market price will remain stagnant and operate mainly.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market was 930 yuan/ton on March 28th, and 980 yuan/ton on March 1st. The market price of ammonium sulfate has dropped by 5.10% this month.

2、 Market analysis
The market price of ammonium sulfate has continued to decline this month, with a slight increase at the end of the month. The operating rate of coking enterprises has remained stable this month, while the operating rate of their own facilities has decreased. The demand for ammonium sulfate in the domestic market is weak, and the number of new orders in the market has decreased. Downstream urgent need for replenishment, insufficient purchasing intention. The international demand for ammonium sulfate has decreased, and negative factors have increased. At the end of the month, the price of urea rose rapidly, which was favorable for the ammonium sulfate market, and the price of ammonium sulfate rebounded slightly. As of March 28th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 860 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 940-980 yuan/ton.
According to the K-bar chart from March 2024 to February 2025, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is characterized by ups and downs. In recent months, the price of ammonium sulfate in China has risen significantly, with the largest increase being 11.36% in February.
3、 Future forecast
An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent rise in urea prices has indirectly boosted the ammonium sulfate market, resulting in a slight increase in ammonium sulfate prices. At present, spring plowing is coming to an end and market demand is weakening. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market will experience a narrow consolidation and operation in the short term.

The domestic fluorite price trend rose in March, with an average price of 3775 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 3.14% from the beginning price of 3660 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 11.44%.

Supply side: Mining operations are limited, fluorite supply remains tight
The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. Some fluorite manufacturers are gradually recovering. However, the fluorite supply in northern regions is clearly insufficient, and the fluorite market trend in March has risen.
Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid prices rise, refrigerant market rises
In March, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid rose, and the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China was negotiated at 11700-12200 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid units are still shut down, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders. In March, the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid rose, which affected the price of fluorite.
The downstream refrigerant market is on the rise, coupled with the strengthening of terminal policies in the refrigerant industry, demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the main trend in the foreign trade market is price increases, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The trend of refrigerant market is rising, which has led to an increase in domestic fluorite market prices.
In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.
Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production to undergo safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. In addition, the downstream refrigerant market has risen, but the acceptance of hydrofluoric acid enterprises is limited. Overall, the domestic fluorite market price fluctuated mainly in April.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the styrene market fell weakly this week, with an average price of 8386 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8354 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.38% during the week.

News: On March 21st, the settlement price of international crude oil futures rose by over 1.5%. The settlement price of WTI crude oil futures in April rose by 1.64% to $68.26 per barrel; The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for May rose 1.72% to $72 per barrel..

Cost wise: Pure benzene continued to decline this week, with more imported goods and increased downstream maintenance, resulting in a weak recent trend. Shandong’s local refining enterprises’ shipments fell short of expectations, with cargo holders actively shipping, while downstream demand for gas was average, and market prices continued to decline.

Supply and demand side: styrene production remains stable, with increased maintenance and supply tightening expectations. Downstream demand support is essential, with some profit recovery, but market inventory is high, making it difficult to increase production.

Styrene external market: On the 20th, the closing price of styrene in the Asian US dollar market rose by 5 US dollars per ton, FOB Korea 980-990 USD/ton, CFR China 990-1000 USD/ton.

Market forecast: The supply side has strong support, but there is a high possibility that the raw material pure benzene will continue to weaken. It is expected that the short-term trend of styrene will be weak.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, there has been a slight rebound in lithium carbonate recently. As of March 17th, domestic battery grade lithium carbonate is priced at 76200 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from 76000 yuan/ton last week, down 3.3% from 78800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, and down 34.6% from 116600 yuan/ton in the same period last year; The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in China is 74100 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.27% from 73900 yuan/ton last week, a decrease of 3% from 76400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, and a decrease of 31% from 107400 yuan/ton in the same period last year.

The overall market situation of oversupply remains unchanged

Due to the low price of excess lithium carbonate and the lack of enthusiasm for lithium ore trading, the reduction in production of Australian mines internationally has led to an increase in lithium ore prices. However, the high production and cost advantage of salt lakes have resulted in a loose overall raw material market.

Demand has increased, but it is difficult to offset the increase in supply

The market demand is gradually recovering, and the production of positive electrode materials has increased, but the overall demand is not strong, and it is difficult to change the surplus situation. Industry insiders maintain a cautious attitude towards the market, restocking as needed, and the trading market remains sluggish.

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that there is currently an excess of lithium carbonate inventory, and although there has been a slight correction, it is expected that the rebound momentum will be insufficient and continue to fluctuate.

The domestic phenol market is experiencing a broad downward trend. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price was 7732 yuan/ton on March 7th, and on March 14th, the domestic phenol market price fell to 7475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.33%.

The decline of raw material pure benzene has a negative impact. Under the continuous decline in pure benzene prices and the weak impact of cost, the pressure on factories and traders has increased. Although traders intended to stabilize prices at the beginning of the week, with the gradual recovery of Shanghai Xisa and Qingdao Haiwan phenol ketone plants, the supply pressure has increased. Traders reported a decline in trading prices, and factories concentrated on lowering their listing prices. The market continued to decline, and on Friday, the market improved slightly, with some markets experiencing a correction of 30-50 yuan/ton.

The demand is flat, downstream terminal factories have average purchasing sentiment when entering the market, and there is little intention to replenish goods. The main focus is on following up on urgent needs, and the participation of intermediate traders is limited. Currently, the profits of phenol ketone enterprises are still on the brink of loss, and the market decline is limited.

Sinopec Huadong phenol is listed at a price of 7600 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China phenol is listed at a price of 7600 yuan/ton. As of the 14th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:

Region/ Quotation on the 14th/ Zhou’s ups and downs

East China region/ 7420./ -300

Shandong region/ 7400./ -300

Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain/ 7450./ -250

South China region/ 7650./ -200

From the perspective of Business Society, the phenol market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations next week, with raw material pure benzene prices at a low level or slightly rising, providing some cost support. The monthly average price of phenol is relatively high, and holders have limited willingness to offer discounts. However, demand enthusiasm is not high, and inventory intentions are not significant. The focus is on market demand, and it is expected that the potential for phenol to rise next week will be limited.

This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 7th, the price of isooctanol was 7466.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.61% compared to the price of 7666.67 yuan/ton on March 1st. There is a significant increase in production capacity of isooctanol, leading to an increase in supply from isooctanol manufacturers; Plasticizer manufacturers are operating at low levels, resulting in a decrease in plasticizer production and a decrease in demand for isooctanol, leading to increased downward pressure on isooctanol.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 7th, the DOP price was 8138.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.25% compared to the DOP price of 8326.25 yuan/ton on March 1st. The low operating rate of DOP plasticizer enterprises has led to a decrease in plasticizer production, a decrease in demand for isooctanol, and increased downward pressure on isooctanol.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s octanol products, downstream demand has decreased and the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen. In the future, the operating load of plasticizer DOP enterprises will decrease, the production of plasticizers will decrease, and the demand for isooctanol will decrease. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, 85% of industrial formic acid in China has been operating steadily recently. As of March 4th, the reference price of Shengyi Society was 3050 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.39% compared to the same period in February and a decrease of 6.87% compared to the same period last year, reaching the highest level in 2025.

Raw material methanol: Some domestic methanol projects are undergoing maintenance, but the start of production has slightly declined; However, the port’s imports in February and March were relatively low, supported by stable external procurement of olefin raw materials from the mainland. The overall sales pressure in upstream production areas was not high, and traditional downstream demand procurement was essential. The raw material methanol was running steadily at a high level.

Raw material sulfuric acid: The domestic sulfuric acid market is showing a slight upward trend, with an increase of 20-60 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere in the sulfuric acid market is good, and the demand in the terminal market is increasing. The shipment is still relatively good, and the market price is gradually increasing. In the short term, the price of sulfuric acid may continue to rise.

Downstream pesticide demand: The fertilizer and pesticide industry has entered the peak production season, with short-term demand expanding. Some products have limited instantaneous production, resulting in supply shortages and price increases. However, most products are focused on stability.

The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the upstream support for formic acid is strong, and downstream demand is improving. It is expected that formic acid prices will remain stable and strong in the short term.

Entering February, the market gradually bottomed out and stabilized, driven by the dual benefits of tightening supply and recovering demand. In the latter half of the year, the market started and prices rose sharply. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 28th, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province increased by 11.84% during the month. At the end of the month, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was between 2600-2800 yuan/ton.

Device maintenance increases, northern supply continues to tighten

From a supply perspective, the overall supply of liquid ammonia in the market tightened in February, with some equipment undergoing maintenance. On the one hand, there were more companies scheduled for maintenance during the Spring Festival, and on the other hand, as the end of the month approached, the number of faulty equipment increased, affecting some production, mainly concentrated in northern regions such as Shandong, Henan, and Shaanxi. So, the increase in liquid ammonia prices in the northern market is relatively strong. Taking the Shandong market as an example, in the last week of the month, manufacturers increased their prices by more than 200 yuan/ton. In addition, the increase in self use of ammonia plants has resulted in fewer sources of goods entering the market.

The overall performance of the industrial chain is strong

From the perspective of the liquid ammonia industry chain chart, there has been a slight improvement in the upstream and downstream environment of liquid ammonia. The upstream natural gas continued to rise in February, with an increase of up to 7.34%. At the end of the month, the upward trend continued, with a slight slowdown in the increase, and the cost remained favorable. In addition, the downstream sector has slightly rebounded, and the operating rate of compound fertilizers continues to rise, increasing from 30% before the year to over 50%. The industrial sector maintains a strong demand, and the overall demand for liquid ammonia remains on the rise.

Downstream fertilizer demand increases

In terms of downstream related products such as urea, urea is the first to rebound. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, urea rose as high as 8.63% in February, and the upward trend slowed down at the end of the month, maintaining a strong market rigidity. As of the end of the month, the mainstream quotation for small and medium-sized particles in Shandong region is around 1870 yuan/ton. The domestic urea fundamentals are expected to improve, and the demand for green manure is increasing, which has increased the demand for urea. In addition, industrial demand has continued to increase, and urea has experienced a small peak in production and sales. Manufacturers are also cooperating to release production pace, and market sentiment continues to heat up.

Market forecast:

Business analysts believe that in the short term, the liquid ammonia market is expected to maintain a strong trend. The main reason is that the supply side may remain tight in the near future. Although there are expectations for the recovery of faulty devices, there are too many planned maintenance companies. It is expected that prices will remain high at the beginning of next month. However, from mid month to the end of the month, due to the impact of device recovery expectations, the supply is expected to increase, and the market will show some supply pressure. There is a possibility of a decline in the price of liquid ammonia.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market in February fluctuated and stabilized after a decline, with most brand products experiencing narrow price reductions. As of February 28th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7516.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.49% compared to the price level at the beginning of February.

price trend

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of remote upstream crude oil, the United States imposed tariffs this month and Trump requested OPEC to increase production to lower oil prices, while US crude oil inventories remained high. With the easing of the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine, the market’s concerns about reduced demand for crude oil have widened. Prices are suppressed by various factors, resulting in weak fluctuations in oil prices. The favorable effects of low pre holiday prices and reduced supply in the propylene sector have gradually dissipated, coupled with a weakening upstream market, leading to a decline. Lack of active guidance on propane, with a focus on price consolidation. Overall, the PP raw material market in February was weak, providing moderate support for PP costs.

Supply side:

In February, the load of domestic PP enterprises was gradually reduced, but the market supply remained abundant. Overall, the industry’s overall load level has decreased from 83% at the end of January to 77%, and the domestic weekly average production has dropped to around 730000 tons. No production capacity will be implemented within the month, and the previously accumulated discharge pressure from the new equipment is gradually being absorbed. The maintenance and resumption of work of PP equipment in the future are mutually apparent, and from the results, it is expected that there will be a narrow relaxation trend in shipment volume. The supply side’s support for PP spot prices is expected to remain stable with small fluctuations.

In terms of demand:

The recovery of PP demand side in February was relatively slow, and the trading volume for the whole month was roughly at a weak level. At the end of the month, the resumption of work in enterprises is gradually in place, and the consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice is showing signs of recovery. The inventory of plastic woven enterprises has been partially digested. Although there was no significant increase in volume on the spot, it is expected that the potential for buyers to stock up in the future will expand. Overall, the demand side is showing a positive trend.

Future forecast

After the domestic PP market price fell in February, it sorted out. From a fundamental perspective, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is poor, industry supply is expected to level off, there is a trend of recovery in consumption, and market momentum has the potential to rise. But in the short term, the bullish momentum is not strong, and the market momentum is still insufficient. It is expected that the PP price market will continue to consolidate.