November 29: China’s domestic bisphenol a market finishing and operation

I. price trend

 

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According to the data monitored by the business agency, on November 29, the comprehensive price of BPA was 9600.00 yuan / ton, which was just needed to be purchased in the downstream, with general volume and low negotiation focus.

 

II. Cause analysis

 

In terms of products: the domestic bisphenol a market today has seen a decrease in low prices, a flat trading atmosphere at the end of the month, no pressure on the inventory of various manufacturers, a firm offer, no increase in market demand, and a low overall turnover rate.

III. future forecast

 

Bisphenol A analysts think: in the short term, bisphenol a market will be reorganized and operated.

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Plasticizer DOP market weak and stable this week

I. price trend

 

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of DOP fell in shock this week, while the overall plasticizer DOP fell slightly. As of November 29, the price of DOP in East China was 7366.67 yuan / ton, down 16.66 yuan / ton, or 0.23%, compared with 7383.33 yuan / ton in the weekend (November 24), down 18.82% compared with the same period last year.

 

II. Market analysis

 

Product analysis

 

Commodity name ﹣ port ﹣ 11.29 price ﹣ 11.22 price ﹣ price type ﹣ unit

DOP China 930.00 920.00 CFR USD / ton

DOP Southeast Asia 1150.00 1150.00 CFR USD / ton

© November 2019 business club www.100ppi.com

 

As can be seen from the table, the price of DOP external market rose this week, and DOP market was good. This week, the price of DOP in China is 930 US dollars / ton, up 10 US dollars / ton; the price of DOP in Southeast Asia is 1150 US dollars / ton, up 10 US dollars / ton, the price of plasticizer DOP is up, the domestic plasticizer market is good.

 

Analysis of industrial chain

 

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In terms of raw materials, this week, the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride remained stable, the price of octanol rose slightly, and the price of octanol rose by 0.72%; the overall cost of DOP remained stable, which weakened the market advantage of DOP. The price of o-phthalic anhydride remained stable, the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride fell, and the overall price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride fell, which was bad for DOP market. In the future, the upward momentum of DOP market weakened, the downward pressure increased, and DOP market fell.

 

In terms of downstream demand, PVC market surged 3.26% this week, with limited demand in the downstream of DOP, but the market recovered. In the future, DOP market is good, but due to the small growth of PVC, the momentum of DOP is general.

 

III. future forecast

 

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP of business agency, the price of raw material isooctanol of plasticizer DOP this week was basically stable, the price of phthalic anhydride of o-phthalic acid remained stable, the price of phthalic anhydride of naphthalene phthalic acid fell, the overall cost of DOP fell, and the market advantage of DOP weakened and the negative increased. On the downstream side, PVC prices kept rising this week. The demand for DOP downstream was limited but the market was favorable. The DOP market had an upward momentum but the momentum was weakened and the downward pressure increased. In general, plasticizer DOP market downward pressure increases, DOP demand is limited, plasticizer DOP market has upward momentum but the momentum is weakened, and it is expected that the future DOP market will be weak and stable.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

Pure benzene price rose slightly this month (November 1-30, 2019)

I. price trend

 

According to a large number of data on the business club’s list, the end of the month fell slightly after the shock rise of pure benzene flattened. On October 31, the listing price of pure benzene was 5000-5400 yuan / ton, and on November 30, the listing price of pure benzene was 5250-5351 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.76% compared with the end of last month.

 

II. Analysis and comment

 

1. Crude oil: this month’s crude oil overall shows a trend of shock rise. WTI oil price is 7.25% higher than last month, Brent oil price is 6.04% higher than last month. Negative: trade risk, US crude oil inventory increase. Good: OPEC may continue to extend production reduction, economic data will be good, and crude oil inventory in the United States will be reduced.

 

2. Product: this month, the range of pure benzene fluctuates in a narrow range. This month, the tight domestic spot supply of pure benzene led to the short supply, which led to a slight recovery in the price of pure benzene; the port inventory continued to be below 100000 tons, and the port to ship situation was also very limited, the market low-cost resources were hard to find, and the mentality of reluctant to sell increased.

 

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3. Downstream: this month, the downstream styrene fell in shock, down 1.98% month on month. This month, the aniline plant recovered its load, the supply increased, and the price fell, down 19.11% month on month. The downstream products of pure benzene generally have low profits, such as caprolactam, styrene and other products have lost money, which is bad for pure benzene.

 

III. future forecast

 

1. Crude oil: in the later stage, the international oil price will continue to fluctuate at a high level, but the downside risk is large. There are signs at the end of the month that OPEC and other oil producers are reluctant to cut production further at the December meeting, and oil prices are likely to decline.

 

2. Domestic and foreign markets: at present, the weak downstream demand of domestic pure benzene will still restrict the market recovery.

 

Comprehensive consideration, it is predicted that the short-term pure benzene market is difficult to return to temperature, and the weak operation is the main one. But the stock up before the Spring Festival will form a good support for the market.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

Plasticizer DOP price is unable to rise this week

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, this week’s DOP price adjustment, the overall plasticizer DOP market remained stable. As of November 25, the price of DOP in East China is 7366.67 yuan / ton, which is stable compared with that at the beginning of the week (November 18); as of November 22, the price of DOP in East China is 7383.33 yuan / ton, which is up 0.23% or 20.32% compared with that at the beginning of the week (November 18), which is 7366.67 yuan / ton.

 

II. Market analysis

 

Product analysis

 

Commodity name port price 11.22 price 11.15 price 11.8 price 11.1 price type unit

DOP China 920.00 920.00 920.00 920.00 920.00 CFR USD / ton

DOP Southeast Asia 1150.00 1140.00 1140.00 1130.00 CFR USD / ton

© November 2019 business club www.100ppi.com

 

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As can be seen from the table, DOP’s external quotation rose in November and DOP’s market was favorable. Last week, the external quotation of DOP in China was stable; the external quotation of DOP in Southeast Asia was up $10 / ton last week, the external quotation of DOP plasticizer was up, and the domestic market of plasticizer was good.

 

Analysis of industrial chain

 

In terms of raw materials, this week, the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride rose in shock, the price of octanol rose in shock, and the price of phthalic anhydride and isooctanol rose in shock. The overall cost of DOP rose, which was good for DOP market, the driving force of DOP market rose, and DOP market rose in shock.

 
In terms of downstream demand, this week’s PVC market fluctuated and rose, while the downstream demand of DOP recovered, and the future DOP market was favorable. However, due to the small growth rate of PVC, the momentum of DOP’s rise was general.

 

III. future forecast

 

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP of business agency, the prices of raw materials phthalic anhydride and isooctanol of plasticizer DOP rose sharply this week, the cost of DOP rose, and the market of DOP was favorable. Downstream, this week, PVC prices maintained a rising trend, DOP demand is good, DOP market has a rising power but limited power. Generally speaking, the downward pressure of plasticizer DOP market weakens and the upward momentum increases, the demand of DOP rises, and the market of plasticizer DOP has the upward momentum and the momentum increases, but the upward momentum is difficult to support the sharp recovery of DOP market, and it is expected that the future DOP market will mainly fluctuate and maintain stability.

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The atmosphere is depressed, and the TDI market is weak and volatile

I. price trend

 

On November 14, the TDI commodity index was 64.02, up 0.7 points from yesterday, down 74.19% from 248.02, the highest point in the cycle (2016-10-19), and up 6.40% from 60.17, the lowest point on February 22, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

II. Market analysis

 

Products: according to the statistics of the business agency, the price trend of TDI in the East China market rose on the 14th, with an average price of 12100.00 yuan / ton, or 1.11% increase. The TDI market in the East China region was narrowed, with a depressed market atmosphere, few transactions, divergent mentality, disordered market quotation and low price quotation. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with bills is 11300-11400 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills is 11600 yuan / ton.

 

Industrial chain: compared with the previous trading day, the price of toluene of Sinopec’s north and East China enterprises was raised by 150-200 yuan / ton. The listing price of Shandong refining enterprises was raised today, about 5700 yuan / ton, and that of traders in East China was raised, about 5800 yuan / ton. In terms of nitric acid, at present, the price trend in East China is stable, the weak quotation of manufacturers tends to be stable, and the prices of some manufacturers are slightly reduced. Nitric acid market performance is not good, market demand is still weak, weak finishing is expected in the later period.

 

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Industry: the domestic TDI market is weak, the overall atmosphere in the market is still weak, the volume of transactions is insufficient, sporadic orders follow-up, the industry is not in a good mood for the future market, the mentality is different, the negotiation is low-end shipment, individual low-cost heard.

 

III. price forecast

 

TDI analysts of business agency think that the domestic TDI market is weak and volatile in the later period, and pay attention to the guidance of factory news.

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Narrow adjustment of domestic propane market this week (11.11-11.15)

I. price trend

 

This week’s propane market fell first and then rose. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propane market was 4025 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 4025 yuan / ton, with the week’s rise and fall of 0%. The price mainly fluctuated in a narrow range, 8.26% lower than the same period last year.

 

II. Analysis of influencing factors

 

Product: the domestic propane market fell first and then rose this week, with a general trading atmosphere. As of November 15, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped using propane for its own use, and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group Co., Ltd. had no propane in stock, so the price was not offered temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 4000 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4000 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4120 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4130 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 4050 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of propane of Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4100 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3950 yuan / ton.

 

This week, the propane market adjusted sideways, and the trading atmosphere slightly improved. At the beginning of the week, the international crude oil fell continuously, and the trend of the liquefied gas market was weak. In addition, the intake gas resources were abundant and the price was low, which hit the enthusiasm of the downstream market. The market transaction atmosphere was weak, and the demand was average. The main enterprises delivered profits and the price fell slightly. Later in the week, with the slight increase of international crude oil and the decrease of propane price, the mentality of downstream replenishment was stimulated. The trading atmosphere was gradually improved. The market rose and fell mutually, and Shandong market recovered after the slight increase.

 

Industrial chain:

 

Liquefied gas: the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market rose steadily this week, with no obvious fluctuation. The recovery of liquefied gas market has stimulated the mentality of propane downstream replenishment and driven the atmosphere of propane transaction. At the beginning of the week, international crude oil continued to fall. In the face of news that the market continued to be bullish, petrochemical enterprises cut prices, and most manufacturers followed suit. The downstream demand is flat, and the upstream traders mainly deliver goods. Thursday’s slight rise in crude oil boosted the market, but in the north of the heating season, terminal demand did not improve substantially. After the price reduction, the shipment has improved, the inventory pressure has been eased, and the manufacturers have increased slightly.

 

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Saudi Aramco announced in November CP that all of the propanbutane had been increased. Propane rose to $430 / ton, up $10 / ton from last month; butane rose $445 / ton, up $10 / ton from last month. The c.i.f. cost of long-term propane is about 3844 yuan / ton, and butane is about 3916 yuan / ton.

 

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 45th week of 2019 (11.11-11.15), there are 19 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are hydrochloric acid (19.18%), chloroform (12.55%) and R22 (4.80%). There are 27 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products decreased were epichlorohydrin (- 9.22%), aniline (- 7.50%), titanium dioxide (- 3.58%). This week’s average was 0.18%.

 

III. future forecast

 

The propane analyst of the business agency thinks that: at present, the price is relatively low, coupled with the gradual cooling of the weather, the downstream replenishment cycle is shortened, the manufacturer’s mentality is relatively strong, and the deep decline intention is not strong. The market is basically stable, with the upstream discharging and shipping, and the downstream replenishing as required. It is expected that the trend will be stable and rising next week.

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This week, the price of octanol fell slightly in Shandong (11.11-11.15

I. price trend

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of octanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of main octanol in Shandong fell from 7000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6933.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.95%, down 25.85% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the octanol market fell slightly this week, with the November 15 octanol commodity index at 50.98.

 

II. Market analysis

 

(I) products:

 

At present, the operating rate of domestic octanol plant is acceptable; Hualu Hengsheng’s 80000 T / a octanol plant is operating normally, and this week’s offer is firm; the annual capacity of Jiangsu Huachang Chemical octanol plant is 80000 tons, and there is no maintenance plan.

 

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This week, the factory quotation of main octanol manufacturers in Shandong slightly fell: hualuhengsheng’s factory quotation of octanol this weekend was 7000 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jianlan chemical’s price of octanol this weekend was 6900 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton lower than the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s price of octanol this weekend was 6900 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton lower than the beginning of the week.

 

(II) industrial chain:

 

Upstream raw material Market: propylene market rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 7320.77 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7377.92 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.78%, down 10.09% year on year. The price of raw materials in the upstream market rose slightly, which had a positive impact on the price of octanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

 

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Downstream market: the price of DOP factory fell slightly this week. DOP’s quotation dropped from 7433.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7366.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.90%, down 22.05% year on year. Downstream customers have general enthusiasm for octanol procurement, general demand for octanol, and low price consolidation of DOP has a negative impact on octanol market. The aftermarket operators mostly wait and see the trend of DOP.

 

III. future forecast

 

In late November, Shandong octanol market trend or low consolidation. After the adjustment in October, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The upstream propylene price rose slightly, and the cost support was strong, but the downstream DOP market was low and consolidated, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was general. At present, the octanol inventory in Shandong is low, and the delivery is tight. According to the octanol analysts of the business agency, the octanol market in Shandong in late November may be in low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

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Aniline prices fell 10% this week (November 11-15)

I. price trend

Aniline prices in Shandong and Nanjing fell sharply this week, according to a large number of data from the business club. Last Friday, the market price of aniline in Shandong was 7950 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing was 8400 yuan / ton. On Friday, the market price of aniline in Shandong Province was 7150 yuan / ton, down 10.1% from last week, while that in Nanjing was 7530 yuan / ton, down 10.4% from last week.

 

II. Analysis and comment

 

Raw materials: at present, the price of pure benzene is 5250-5400 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the week, pure benzene market demand was weak and the price was lower. However, the reduction of hydrogenated benzene production led to the decrease of supply, driving the price of pure benzene higher in North China. Tight spot supply and drop in port inventory led to short covering, which drove the price of pure benzene to continue to rise.

 

Nitric acid was stable this week, down 1.98% from last week.

 

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Product: this week, the aniline factory is in normal operation, with sufficient supply and accumulated inventory. In order to promote shipment, the factory has lowered the price for many times.

 

III. future expectation

 

Raw materials: the supply and demand of coking industry has been improved, the support surface of hydrogenated benzene is strong, and the subsequent driving force is still strong. In addition, the port inventory is low, and the spot market supply is tight, which has strong support for the bottom of pure benzene. But at present, the profit of downstream enterprises is small, the demand is weak, and the increase is limited. It is expected that pure benzene will rise slightly in the later period driven by the market.

 

The supply is sufficient and the inventory is accumulated; the cost side has recovered to a certain extent, and it is expected that the consumption of aniline will decline in the short term.

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In October, the price soared by 70% and then fell sharply. The LNG market is too exciting!

I. price trend

 

In October, the domestic LNG market ushered in a sustained surge, and at the end of the month, the LNG market experienced the biggest one-day surge. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on October 1 was 2793.33 yuan / ton, and the average price on October 31 was 4750 yuan / ton. In the month, the price rose nearly 2000 yuan, or 70.05%, which was crazy. As of November 7, the average price of LNG was 4126.67 yuan / ton, down 13.12% compared with the average price of 4750 yuan / ton on November 1, and down 5.3% compared with the same period last year. It can be said that the price of LNG was going up crazily and down sharply.

 

II. Analysis of influencing factors

 

Product: according to the data monitoring of business agency, as of November 7, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Erdos Star Energy Co., Ltd. is 4100 yuan / ton, and the LNG price of Inner Mongolia etokeqian banner Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 4200 yuan / ton. The LNG price of Xinjiang Qinghua Energy Group Co., Ltd. is 4000 yuan / ton, that of Zizhou LNG plant of Shaanxi Lvyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 4100 yuan / ton, that of Xinjiang guanghuinaomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) is about 2950 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi Qinshui Xinao is 4150 yuan / ton, that of Dazhou Huixin energy is 3800 yuan / ton, and that of Shaanxi Zhongyuan lvneng Natural Gas Co., Ltd It is 4080 yuan / ton, and the price of liquid in various regions has fallen sharply.

 

Market analysis: in October, the domestic LNG market began to improve. After the National Day holiday, the road transportation recovered smoothly, the downstream began to actively replenish goods, the terminal demand increased. In addition, the weather turned cold, the northern cities gradually entered the winter heating period, the urban gas procurement LNG supply, the LNG sales were hot, some liquid plants due to the low liquid level in the early stage and heating Quarter expectations, strong price push. On October 15, CNPC conventional liquid plant bid for feed gas, starting at 1.41 yuan / m3, gas volume 180 million m3. The rising gas source, a slight reduction in the overall market supply, as well as the intentional increase in logistics freight, also support the upward momentum of LNG. Since then, in the middle and last ten days of October, LNG has maintained the trend of shock and stability, with different ups and downs, but the market as a whole has remained stable. This state of stability was broken at the end of the month. On October 30, the starting base price of Northwest feed gas auction was raised to 1.57 yuan / m3, and the final transaction price was 26-2.75 yuan / m3. The volume of registered orders in the auction was 100 million cubic meters, 80 million cubic meters less than that of the last time. Driven by the rising cost, the domestic LNG price rose sharply, which rose nearly 1000 yuan overnight, with multiple terminals linked and rising, as well as the receiving stations around the country. The scope of this surge is almost national and large-scale. It is also a large one-day increase in recent years, and the market as a whole is “rising”.

 

However, such a rise did not last for a long time, just like a flash in the pan. It only lasted for three days and then rose and fell back. Since November 2, there have been successive falls all over the country. There are many secondary price adjustments in a day. At present, some manufacturers need to buy high price gas source to maintain the power on, and some manufacturers need to wait and see. The sudden surge at the end of October was unexpected. In addition to the cost increase, there are also market sentiment driven factors. Currently, there is no obvious positive support for the terminal, and LNG short-term price surge lacks practical support.

 

This year, more efforts have been made to ensure the supply of natural gas. The policy of “gas based transformation, coal based transformation, electricity based transformation and gas based transformation” pays more attention to the coordination of resources. From the central government to the local government, the balance between the supply and demand of natural gas is better than before, and the people’s livelihood can be effectively guaranteed. This winter’s natural gas supply is relatively sufficient, “three barrels of oil” has done a lot of work this year. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, China produced 127.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. In September, China produced 13.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, an increase of 4 percentage points over the previous month. This year, unless we encounter major force majeure factors such as extreme cold current, the phenomenon of “gas shortage” is hard to reproduce.

 

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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are two kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in October 2019, among which one is more than 5% higher, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top two commodities are liquefied natural gas (70.05%) and liquefied gas (1.51%) There are 14 kinds of goods falling on a month on month basis, 4 kinds of goods falling by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the number of goods monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are MTBE (- 15.83%), gasoline (- 11.62%), methanol (- 5.89%) This month, the average rise and fall was 0.44%.

 

III. future forecast

 

LNG analysts of business club think: in recent days, natural gas has been declining one after another, the pressure of middlemen’s sales is too high, some middlemen’s profits have been inverted, and their mentality is relatively negative. Considering the problem of loss, the decline of local liquid price slowed down. With the decrease of temperature and the approaching of central heating in the north, the demand for heating will increase, and the demand for LNG will be boosted. At that time, the market situation of LNG will change, and there is no lack of expectation for rise.

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In October, the price of raw materials fell sharply, and the price of plasticizer fell all the way

I. price trend

 

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOP price fell all the way in October, and the plasticizer market gradually stabilized at the end of the month. As of October 31, the price of DOP in East China was 7466.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 450 yuan / ton, or 5.86%, compared with 7916.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (October 1), and a decrease of 24.30% compared with the same period last year.

 

II. Market analysis

 

Product analysis

 

Commodity name port 10.25 price 10.18 price 10.11 price 10.4 price type unit

DOP China 930.00 940.00 950.00 965.00 CFR USD / ton

DOP Southeast Asia 1140.00 1150.00 1180.00 1200.00 CFR USD / ton

© October 2019 business club www.100ppi.com

 

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As can be seen from the table, DOP’s external quotation fell sharply in October, and DOP’s market was negative. In October, the external quotation of DOP in China fell by 35.00 USD / T; in Southeast Asia, the external quotation of DOP fell by 60 USD / T, the external quotation of plasticizer DOP fell, and the domestic plasticizer market was negative.

 

Analysis of industrial chain

 

In terms of raw materials, in October, the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride fell sharply, but the decline gradually slowed down. After the sharp drop in octanol price, it maintained stability. Overall DOP cost fell, but the decline trend slowed down. The DOP price fell in shock, but the later DOP market was negative, but the downward pressure weakened, and the later DOP market was weak.

 

 

In terms of downstream demand, PVC market fell slightly in October, while the downstream demand of DOP fell, while the market of DOP was negative and the rising power was insufficient. Downstream PVC market fluctuated and fell, and DOP demand was general. Overall, it was not good enough for future DOP market, and the momentum of future DOP rising was insufficient.

 

III. future forecast

 

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP, the price of raw materials phthalic anhydride and isooctanol of DOP fell sharply in October, the cost of DOP fell sharply, and the market of DOP was negative. However, as the decline of phthalic anhydride slowed down and the price of isooctanol remained stable, the pressure of plasticizer decline weakened, and the market of plasticizer tended to be stable. In the downstream, the price of PVC fell slightly in October, while the demand for DOP was not good enough, while the market of DOP was not strong enough. Generally speaking, the downward pressure of plasticizer DOP market has been eased to some extent, but it is difficult to support the recovery of DOP market due to insufficient upward momentum, and it is expected that the weak trend of DOP market in the future will maintain stability.

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