On December 28th, the hydrogenation benzene commodity index was 79.29, an increase of 0.19 points from yesterday, a decrease of 26.70% from the highest point in the cycle of 108.17 points (2022-06-15), and an increase of 164.39% from the lowest point of 29.99 points on April 7th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2013 to present).
According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the overall market for hydrogenated benzene was on the rise in December 2023. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China was 7066.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 7183.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.65%.
Crude oil prices: International crude oil futures plummeted by over 3% on December 28th. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $71.77 per barrel, a decrease of $2.34 or 3.2%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $77.15 per barrel, a decrease of $2.39 or 3.0%. Red Sea shipping has gradually resumed, geopolitical risks have eased, and oil prices are under pressure. Business Society crude oil analysts believe that the current sustained rebound in oil prices is mainly affected by geopolitical tensions. In the medium to long term, the supply-demand game remains the main logic of transactions: on the supply side, OPEC+deepens production cuts, and the expected increase in US production will show a trade-off. On the demand side, the depreciation of the US dollar and the expectation of a Fed rate cut will boost oil prices. Overall, the short-term impact of the geopolitical situation on oil prices will continue to explore upward space, while the medium – and long-term supply and demand will exacerbate the broad fluctuations in the oil market
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has fluctuated, with recent declines followed by gains.
In December 2023, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was lowered twice and raised twice, with a cumulative increase of 50 yuan/ton. Currently, it is being implemented at 7250 yuan/ton.
Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7250 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6950 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7063 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7250 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7250 yuan/ton.
According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of pure benzene slightly decreased at the beginning of this month, and has been rising since mid month. On December 1st, the price was 6692 yuan/ton; On December 29th, the price was at 7230 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.03% from the beginning of the month and an increase of 10.68% from the same period last year.
In terms of the industrial chain, the pure benzene market in December basically followed the overall trend of crude oil, falling first and then rising. In the first half of the month, it continued to decline, and in the second half, it steadily rose and recovered the month’s decline, ultimately closing up 8.03%. Sinopec’s listed price first fell and then rose, with a cumulative increase of 50 yuan/ton. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene fluctuated, and by the end of the month, mainstream manufacturers in the main production areas were executing 7200 yuan/ton, indicating a strong overall operation of the industrial chain.
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After entering 23 years, the hydrogenated benzene market has seen more ups and downs. In May, the market continued to decline for two consecutive months, while in July and August, it continued to rise for two consecutive months. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the hydrogenated benzene market has had relatively small fluctuations since entering October, with mixed ups and downs.
As the end of the month approaches, crude oil is expected to decline and styrene market is expected to decline, which will have a certain drag on the pure benzene market. The spot market is also expected to decline. In addition, hydrogenated benzene enterprises have started operating lower recently, and market expectations for future production may decline due to profit influence. The supply of hydrogenated benzene is expected to be slightly tight, and with mixed negative and positive factors, it is expected that the hydrogenated benzene market will tend to fluctuate in the future. The focus is on the impact of subsequent crude oil and styrene market trends on market sentiment.