According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the toluene market has recently seen a narrow consolidation from May 13th to May 22nd. On May 22nd, the benchmark price of toluene was 7500 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.27% from 7480 yuan/ton on May 13th.

International crude oil weak shock, toluene cost weak support

Recently (5.13-5.22), the international crude oil price range has fluctuated, providing weak support for the cost of toluene. As of May 22nd, WTI07 contract settlement is 77.57 US dollars per barrel; Brent 07 contract settlement is $81.90 per barrel. The price of toluene in Asia has slightly rebounded, providing some support for the domestic market. As of May 13th and June, the CFR China toluene price was between 922-924 US dollars per ton.

Starting production of xylene and increasing toluene demand with weak support

Due to maintenance of some devices, the domestic PX production has slightly decreased, and as of May 21st, the PX production has slightly decreased to around 75%. It is understood that Weilian Chemical has recently shut down 2 million tons of PX for maintenance, with a planned maintenance period of around 40 days. The price of PX in the Asian outer market has significantly decreased, which has a bearish impact on the domestic PX market. As of May 21, the closing price in the Asian region is 1002-1004 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1027-1029 US dollars/ton CFR China.

Slow recovery of domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for toluene mixed blending is weak. As of May 16th, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly decreased to around 690%.

The continued decline in port inventory has eased the pressure on the toluene market to some extent

The domestic toluene port inventory has slightly decreased compared to the previous period, but still remains at a high level. As of May 16th, the toluene inventory in East China was 53000 tons, and the toluene inventory in South China was 8500 tons.

There are still plans for equipment maintenance in the later stage, and it is expected that the supply of toluene will decrease

The Jin’ao Technology reforming unit was shut down for maintenance in April, and toluene was sold without quantity. It is planned to restart in late May; Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical’s aromatics were shut down for maintenance on April 7th. In the later stage, there are still maintenance plans for toluene mixed xylene units such as Zhenhai Refining, Zhenghe Petrochemical, Dushanzi Petrochemical, and Dalian Xitai in May and June. Overall, the expected decline in toluene supply in the later stage provides some support for the toluene market.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, the international crude oil market is currently experiencing weak fluctuations, and there is a downward risk in the cost of toluene; Secondly, the downstream demand for oil adjustment was lower than expected, and the demand for disproportionation reaction also slightly decreased; The maintenance plan for the toluene unit in the later stage will to some extent alleviate the pressure on the toluene supply surface. Overall, it is expected that the toluene market may experience a weak trend in the later stage and slightly rise after consolidation.

Recently (5.13-5.21), the nitrile rubber market has been weak and consolidating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 21st, the price of nitrile rubber was 15137 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.25% from 15175 yuan/ton on May 13th. The high prices of raw materials such as butadiene and acrylonitrile have fallen, while the cost support for nitrile rubber has slightly weakened; Downstream construction continues at a low level, with weak demand for nitrile rubber. General inventory of nitrile rubber enterprises; The production of nitrile rubber is at a low level, and the pressure on the supply side of nitrile rubber is not high. As of May 21st, the mainstream market price for Lanhua 3305 in East China is around 13700-13800 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for Russian nitrile 3665 is around 13500-13600 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for Nandi Nitrile 1052 is around 16700-16800 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for Shunze Nitrile 3355 is 14700-14800 yuan/ton.

Recently (5.13-5.21), the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile have fallen from high levels, and the cost support for nitrile rubber has slightly weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 21st, the price of butadiene was 11087 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.90% from 11537 yuan/ton on May 13th; As of May 21st, the price of acrylonitrile was 10250 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 3.87% compared to the price of 10662 yuan/ton on May 13th.

Recently (5.13-5.21), the construction of domestic nitrile rubber plants has slightly increased, but there are still plans for plant maintenance in the later stage. The 65000 ton/year nitrile plant in Shunze will restart operation from May 20th; The 35000 ton/year nitrile rubber plant in Lanhua will be shut down from May 11th, and the 15000 ton/year nitrile rubber plant is planned to be shut down on May 25th.

Recently, the production of downstream nitrile rubber hoses in China has remained at around 5.5%, while the production of insulation foam has remained at a low level of around 5.5%. Downstream inquiries about nitrile rubber are limited, and the overall demand for nitrile rubber is weak.

Market forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that currently, the prices of butadiene and acrylonitrile raw materials for nitrile rubber are still at a high cost support level; Downstream construction remains at a low level, which has a negative impact on nitrile rubber; The production of nitrile rubber is at a low level, and there is not much pressure on the supply side, which provides some support for the market. Overall, it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will fluctuate and consolidate in the later stage.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell this week, with a decrease of 4.44%. The average market price dropped from 112.5 yuan/ton last weekend to 107.5 yuan/ton this Friday, and the weekend price fell by 51% year-on-year.

Insufficient upstream support, average downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have fallen this week, with manufacturers operating normally and some companies accumulating inventory, resulting in excessive inventory. The manufacturer maintains stable equipment and is more proactive in shipping goods.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has been operating steadily recently, and cost support has further weakened. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has been experiencing a continuous decline in recent times. This week, the price slightly decreased by 0.35%, during the weekend, and the market price was 1780 yuan/ton. Polyaluminum chloride manufacturers are gradually resuming production, and downstream procurement willingness is average.

Future Market Forecast

In late May, the market price of hydrochloric acid may remain stable with some decline. The upstream liquid chlorine market lacks support, and there is still room for further decline in the downstream polyaluminum chloride market. Downstream purchasing willingness is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent weak and volatile hydrochloric acid market is the main trend.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 19th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in China was 105800.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31% compared to last Monday’s price.

Recently, the domestic lithium hydroxide market has declined. Recently, the price of spodumene concentrate has been narrow and weak, with upstream lithium carbonate prices falling and cost support showing weakness. The supply side is mainly stable, while downstream high nickel ternary demand has limited follow-up. The demand side has decreased compared to the previous period, and the market inquiry atmosphere is still acceptable. However, there is a clear wait-and-see attitude towards high priced raw materials, and caution is needed to enter the market. The actual transaction volume in the market is still weak, and the focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market is falling.

Upstream lithium carbonate: According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on May 17th, the reference price for lithium carbonate industrial grade was 106800.00, a decrease of 1.48% compared to May 1st (108400.00). Through observing market changes, the spot market for lithium carbonate has shown a weak decline recently, which lacks support for the lithium hydroxide market.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Hydroxide, short-term demand may still be insufficient in the face of market support, with most businesses adopting a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the lithium hydroxide market may continue to operate weakly and steadily in the short term, while still needing to pay attention to changes in upstream lithium carbonate prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 17th, the average price of white oil in the market was 8483 yuan/ton, and on May 11th, the average price of white oil in the market was 8500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2%.

In terms of cost

This week’s break in crude oil prices has a guiding effect on the market, with a slight decline in the white oil market.

In terms of supply and demand

On the supply side, some upstream refineries underwent maintenance in May, resulting in a slight reduction in supply. Light white oil manufacturers have made adjustments to individual models this week. On the demand side, consumption entered the traditional off-season in May, and the transaction atmosphere was light. Downstream low-priced essential purchases were the main focus.

Future Market Forecast

At present, although the trading atmosphere in the market is average, the production costs of refineries are still high. The cost support is strong, and it is expected that the price trend of white oil market will be stable, moderate, and weak, with narrow price fluctuations.

This week, the domestic glycerol market prices remained weak and stable. According to the data monitoring system of Business Society, as of May 16th, the benchmark price of glycerol in Business Society was 4275.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.16% compared to the beginning of this month (4325.00 yuan/ton).

Influencing factors: The price of palm oil in the market has risen. According to data from Business Society, as of May 16th, the benchmark price of palm oil in Business Society was 8020.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.75% compared to the beginning of this month (7960.00 yuan/ton). On the external side, the price of glycerol is stable, with a small quantity and not many offers. The domestic downstream market demand for epichlorohydrin is weak, and the purchasing atmosphere is not strong. At present, the market trading volume is insufficient and orders are limited, with a focus on wait-and-see.

Post forecast: According to the glycerol data analyst from Business Society, the market price of raw palm oil has risen, downstream demand is cold, and procurement is not active. In the near future, domestic glycerol has been operating weakly and steadily. For more information, please pay attention to the dynamics of external quotation and market guidance.

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week, with an average market price of 3350 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to the weekend, a decrease of 4.29% compared to the same period last year. On May 10th, the chlor alkali index was 1004 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 52.82% from the highest point in the cycle of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 41.01% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

Upstream caustic soda

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was around 790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.63% compared to the same period last year. The prices of caustic soda in Shandong region have been consolidating, with a mainstream market quotation of around 690-810 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market quotation of around 810-880 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. In the near future, downstream purchases will be made on demand, and it is expected that the operation will be mainly volatile in the later stage.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of caustic soda has stabilized this week, and downstream demand is average. Traders are actively shipping, but downstream alumina is mostly purchased on demand. Based on the overall supply-demand game, the price of caustic soda may remain volatile in the short term, depending on downstream market demand.

The price of boric acid has been weak and stable recently. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 10th, the average price of boric acid in the domestic market is 7275 yuan/ton. At present, domestic boric acid traders offer prices ranging from 6700 to 7800 yuan/ton (actual transaction prices for different brands, specifications, and products are mainly negotiated), with mainstream prices ranging from 6900 to 6950 yuan/ton based on sales volume.

In terms of overseas imported goods, the current foreign quotation for imported goods is concentrated at 7500-7800 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price of different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated). According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 10th, the average market price of imported boric acid was 7656.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.08% compared to the average market price of 7662.5 yuan/ton in early April.

The price of boric acid began to decline from its high point in June 2022, and began to bottom out and fluctuate horizontally in May 2023. Currently, it is still operating in the range of bottom box fluctuations. If there is no positive news, it is expected to be difficult to change in the short term.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the CPP market prices have been weak and stable this week. As of May 9th, domestic producers and traders have reached 25% μ The mainstream quoted price for m’s CPP film is around 10133.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 0.16% from last week’s average price and about 0.16% from the beginning of the month.

quotations analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP has fluctuated and fallen this week. The mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7821.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27% compared to last week (7842.86 yuan/ton), and a decrease of 0.27% compared to the beginning of this month (7842.86 yuan/ton). The price of raw material PP is weak and there is insufficient support on the cost side.

In terms of supply: the membrane enterprise has sufficient inventory and still has surplus. The pressure on the supply side is still in place.

In terms of demand: Enterprise replenishment operations are mainly based on demand, terminal inquiries are cautious, and there is no significant improvement in the trading atmosphere on the market.

Future Market Forecast

The market demand is weak, and the release of inventory is limited. Although prices have weakened, there is not much room for film companies to make concessions. It is expected that CPP film prices may experience weak fluctuations in the near future.

In April, the domestic ABS market rose at a high level, with most brands experiencing an increase in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the average price of ABS sample products was 12475 yuan/ton, a+2.57% increase or decrease from the price level on April 1st.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: The low load pattern of the domestic ABS industry has continued this month, and the operating rate at the end of the month has decreased from 62% at the beginning of the month to around 55%. In the first half of the month, enterprises underwent centralized maintenance, and in the second half, there was also varying degrees of load reduction. The synchronous reduction in production has led to a decrease in on-site supply, resulting in strong support for ABS spot goods from the supply side throughout the month.

Cost factor: The overall trend of ABS upstream three materials in April was positive, with acrylonitrile market maintaining a positive trend throughout the month. The equipment load of the enterprise decreased within the month, and the news of resuming work in the future is uncertain. The supply is declining, providing supplier support for acrylonitrile, and the main enterprises are actively raising prices; The prices of raw materials propylene and liquid ammonia have strengthened, providing strong support for acrylonitrile; Downstream, there is a surge in pre holiday stocking and consumption, with many bulls gathering in the market. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to operate strongly in the future.

This month, the domestic butadiene market has reached a high level of consolidation and operation. In the first half of the year, the external market rose, with a premium in bidding sources, providing support to the market. In late October, the terminal will replenish its position before the holiday and support spot prices. It is expected that the fluctuation of butadiene prices during the May Day period may be limited.

In terms of styrene market, it improved after rising in April. At the beginning of the month, driven by six consecutive increases in international oil prices, the cost of styrene was strongly supported. Combined with the decline in social inventory, the styrene market continues to rise. During the month, the supply and demand of styrene increased, but at the end of the month, there was pressure on the supply side due to port arrivals, while crude oil fell, leading to a reversal in the market. The future prices may be mainly organized and operated.

In terms of demand: In April, the main terminal demand for ABS remained stable with a slight decrease, and the overall factory load remained generally stable. The stocking operation was mainly focused on buying in demand. The supply of low-end goods in the market decreased within the month, and traders actively raised prices. Due to the high price of ABS, the pre holiday stocking situation is not significant. On exchange trading is average, and the demand side provides average market support.

Future Market Forecast

The domestic ABS prices have risen at a high level this month. From a fundamental perspective, all three upstream materials of ABS have seen price increases, providing strong support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of ABS polymerization plant is expected to remain at a low level, and supply tends to be tight. At the end of the month, the demand side has just entered the market, and the support for spot goods has slowed down. In summary, it is expected that the ABS market will continue to remain strong at high levels in the short term.