The process of global energy structure transformation is accelerating. With the international efforts to deal with climate change and low-carbon energy has become a consensus, more and more countries have actively introduced policies and measures to promote the development of renewable energy industry, and the development prospect of green energy industry is expected.
According to the report “world energy outlook 2020″ recently released by the International Energy Agency, under the background of the overall decline in global energy demand, the development and utilization of renewable energy shows greater flexibility. It is estimated that from 2020 to 2030, the demand for renewable energy power will increase by 2 / 3, accounting for about 80% of the increase in global power demand.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) urged more countries to actively formulate effective energy policies, accelerate the transformation of energy structure and boost the sustainable growth of renewable energy industry.
Growth of renewable energy industry against the trend
In the world energy outlook 2020 report, the International Energy Agency predicts that global energy demand will not fully return to pre epidemic levels until at least 2023. According to the report, affected by the epidemic situation and other factors, the global energy demand is expected to drop by 5% this year, of which the oil demand will drop by 8% and the coal consumption will drop by 7%. However, the renewable energy industry will continue to grow and is expected to replace coal as the main power generation mode in 2025. By 2030, renewable energy will provide nearly 40% of the world’s electricity supply.
According to the world energy statistics review released by BP, while global coal consumption continues to decline, global renewable energy is growing at a record rate, accounting for more than 40% of the growth of primary energy in 2019.
According to the latest report published by Eurostat in November, the total amount of renewable energy production within the EU in 2018 increased by 2.8% year-on-year. Compared with 10 years ago, the proportion of fossil energy continued to decline in 2018, while renewable energy showed an upward trend, with a growth rate of 49.2%.
At present, 25% of energy in Latin America comes from renewable energy. In recent years, wind power and photovoltaic power generation have increased significantly. According to the Brazilian Solar Energy Association, the installed capacity of solar power in Brazil has increased more than five times since 2018. According to the latest data from the Brazilian Wind Energy Association, the installed capacity of wind power in the country has increased more than 15 times since 2010.
According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, wind power is currently the most popular renewable energy power generation mode in Latin America. Last year, it absorbed 8.9 billion US dollars of investment, an increase of 87% year-on-year. Solar power generation followed closely, with a cumulative investment of 8.1 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 31%.
The development of photovoltaic industry in Africa is also accelerating. According to the Market Research Report of the industry organizations of new energy finance and green Cape, South Africa’s solar energy leasing platform sun exchange predicts that in the five years from 2019 to 2024, the market potential of sub Saharan Africa in the field of industrial and commercial photovoltaic may exceed $7 billion.
Many countries increase the development of new energy
At present, more and more countries attach importance to the development and utilization of new energy, and correspondingly introduce more industrial support policies and green recovery plans to accelerate the transformation of energy structure to low-carbon.
South Korea recently announced a long-term renewable energy plan to increase renewable energy power development. According to the plan, by 2034, all coal-fired power plants in South Korea will be decommissioned, and the proportion of renewable energy in South Korea’s energy structure will increase from 15.1% to 40%.
According to the “2030 national energy plan” released by the French government, it will continue to increase the proportion of renewable energy generation in the field of power supply, especially the proportion of wind power, so as to realize the energy transformation. By 2030, renewable energy will account for 40% of France’s electricity supply, of which wind power is expected to account for 20%. Germany plans to increase the proportion of renewable energy from the current 18% to 30%.
In July this year, the European Commission launched the EU energy system integration development strategy. At the same time, it promoted the establishment of industry alliances in several key areas such as clean hydrogen energy and batteries, and promoted the development of relevant fields and investment through inter industry cooperation. In the long-term budget of the “next generation EU” recovery plan, the EU requires Member States to spend at least 37% of their public investment on climate change related fields in the process of promoting economic recovery, and further relax the financial restrictions on Member States’ investment in renewable energy projects.
The Chilean government officially launched the green hydrogen energy strategy in November this year to promote the transformation of energy structure. In December last year, the Chilean government announced that it would speed up the adjustment of its energy structure. It planned to reduce the share of coal-fired power generation to 20% by 2024, gradually increase the proportion of hydropower, wind, solar and biomass power generation, increase the proportion of renewable energy in the country’s total energy to 70% by 2030, and completely shut down all coal-fired power plants by 2040.
The Brazilian government has continuously introduced policies and measures to provide funds and policy support for infrastructure and projects related to solar energy and other industries. By 2035, the total investment in Brazil’s power industry will exceed US $30 billion, of which 70% will be used for renewable energy technologies such as solar photovoltaic, wind power, biomass energy and marine energy.
The future of industrial development is expected
Dr. Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said that if governments and investors can step up the development and utilization of clean energy according to the sustainable development concept set by the International Energy Agency, it will be a great encouragement to deal with global climate change. The international energy agency calls on the government, energy companies, investors and the public to actively participate in promoting the transformation of energy structure optimization.
Nicholas Stern, former chief economist of the world bank, said that from a global perspective, the supply of fossil energy such as oil and natural gas is increasingly uncertain. In contrast, the development prospect of renewable energy industry is promising. According to stern analysis, with the increasing attention paid to the issue of climate change, more and more countries are making efforts to reduce the emission pollution caused by fossil energy such as oil. At the same time, the global cost of renewable energy development is declining, which provides an opportunity for the growth of the industry. Many countries have attached more importance to the development of renewable energy industry in the medium and long term.
Benmike Williams, an energy expert at the brueger Institute of economics in Belgium, believes that while the government increases public investment, it is also important to effectively attract private investment. On the one hand, governments can adjust market expectations through policy guidance, so that investors can foresee the prospect of investment in low-carbon economy; on the other hand, they should further accelerate the construction of internal energy market integration, strengthen international policy coordination, and ensure that energy prices remain stable and reasonable, so as to attract investors’ attention to green energy industry.
“In order to achieve sustainable development and the climate objectives of the Paris Agreement, Member States should strive to increase the proportion of renewable energy sources, ensure universal and reliable electricity, and actively build inclusive, resilient and low-carbon energy systems.” Ali shahbana, executive secretary of the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, said at the 2020 global energy Internet (Asia) conference. The conference proposed to speed up the development of clean energy bases with good resource conditions and economic benefits, deliver power to the energy utilization centers in the continent, and create an energy development pattern of “power transmission from the west to the East, power from the north to the south, multi energy complementation and regional interconnection”. On this basis, power interconnection channels between Asia and Europe, Africa and Oceania will be built to realize cross continent energy mutual benefit.