According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market first rose and then stabilized in December, with a sideways consolidation operation until the end of the month. From December 1st to 31st, the domestic market price of aggregated MDI increased from 18150 yuan/ton to 18183 yuan/ton, with a monthly price increase of 0.18% and a year-on-year price increase of 15.33%.

In the first half of the month, the price of domestic aggregated MDI rose, and mainstream factories in China were undergoing centralized maintenance. Under the expectation of tight supply, downstream actively entered the market and upstream actively pushed up prices.

In mid to late month, the aggregated MDI market will be organized and operated. Maintenance companies are driving one after another, downstream demand is following up, market inventory is low, and MDI prices remain stable at high levels.

On the supply side, the 350000 ton/year plant of Shanghai Huntsman is expected to undergo maintenance in mid November, which will last for about a month; The 600000 tons/year MDI plant of Shanghai Covestro is expected to undergo maintenance in mid to late November, lasting about 25 days; The 400000 tons/year MDI plant of BASF in Chongqing will begin maintenance on December 15th and is expected to be maintained for about a month.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market has fluctuated and fallen. As of December 31st, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society is 7267 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market has fluctuated and risen. As of December 31st, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyi Society was 9375 yuan/ton. Pure benzene has experienced a significant decline in the past six months, which has weakened support for polymer MDI.

On the demand side, downstream procurement is urgently needed, and low-priced goods are still available for transactions. As the end of the year approaches, there is a demand for stockpiling downstream.

Future forecast: The current inventory level in the MDI market is low and spot prices are tight, which will boost the MDI market. However, downstream demand is in a low season, and it is expected that the aggregated MDI market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of December 30th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China this week was 7766.67 yuan/ton. In December, cyclohexane prices were the mainstay with a narrow upward trend, rising by 1.3% for the whole month. Currently, downstream demand is still acceptable, but upstream cost support is average. The mainstream market price is around 8000 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: Upstream pure benzene, there have been significant changes in the pure benzene market this month. The stable operation of the pure benzene market price was the main trend in mid to early December, and there was a large-scale decline in the pure benzene market at the end of the month. Port inventories continue to increase, international crude oil prices are stabilizing and rebounding, while pure benzene prices in the European market remain in resonance, showing signs of rising and falling, and the East Asian market is stabilizing with some decline.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that it is expected that the market price of cyclohexane will remain stable with a moderate to strong trend in the short term.

In December, various favorable factors supported the continued rise of epichlorohydrin. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of December 20th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 9225.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.22% compared to the beginning of this month (9025.00 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors: The price of liquid chloropropene on the raw material side varies. At present, the factory price of mainstream liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong Province is 150-200 yuan/ton. The price of raw material glycerol has risen sharply. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 19th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6895.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.73% compared to the beginning of this month (6845.75 yuan/ton).

Supply side: The atmosphere of epoxy chloropropane in the domestic market continues to rise. Affected by factors such as rising raw material prices, the production enthusiasm of epichlorohydrin enterprises has increased, and the current operating rate has risen to 55%. Some leading enterprises are operating at full capacity. As of the 19th, the price of epichlorohydrin in Shandong region is 9400-9600 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of over 500 yuan/ton.

Downstream demand side: Downstream epoxy resin is affected by raw materials, leading to an increase in market orders and high prices. Manufacturers’ stocking expectations have also increased. At present, factories are queuing up to pick up goods, and the market is in short supply. The quotation for solid epoxy resin in East China is 13200-13400 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan/ton. There is an expected increase in demand for epichlorohydrin in the short term.

Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that due to factors such as rising raw material prices, the enthusiasm of epoxy chloropropane production enterprises to start production has increased, downstream market orders have increased, and there is an expectation of rising raw material demand. It is expected that the epoxy chloropropane market may have a slight increase in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in market prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 1546 yuan/ton. On December 19th, the baking soda commodity index was 102.61, a decrease of 0.13 points from yesterday, a decrease of 56.49% from the cycle high of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 16.25% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is operating steadily, with a factory price of 1450-1550 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1500-1850 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been consolidating this week. The current market average price is 1538 yuan/ton, and downstream customers tend to purchase according to their needs.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China remained stable this week. As of December 13th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11583.33 yuan/ton, which was the same as the beginning of this week.

Raw material side: The price of raw fluorite remained stable at a high level this week. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, domestic fluorite prices have risen this week. As of December 13th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society fluorite was 3678.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.10% compared to the beginning of this month (3675.00 yuan/ton).

Demand side: Maintain stability in the downstream refrigerant market. Some factories have offered price increases. Affected by quota management and maintenance plans, most units in the refrigerant industry entered a shutdown state in December, and the operating load gradually decreased, resulting in a continued cold atmosphere towards raw material procurement.

Market forecast: The market price of raw materials remains stable at a high level, and downstream purchases are mainly based on demand. We adopt a wait-and-see and cautious attitude towards high priced raw material purchases. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid will remain stable in the later period.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 2nd to 6th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2539 yuan/ton to 2504 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.38% during the period, a maximum amplitude of 2.23%, a month on month increase of 1.38%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.63%. The domestic methanol market is relatively weak. Methanol production enterprises have low inventory levels, Northwest CTO enterprises have no external procurement, and other downstream enterprises maintain essential procurement. The atmosphere of the domestic methanol market has weakened. Downstream demand remains stable, port inventory accumulates, and port methanol also weakens.

As of the close on December 6th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2501, opened at 2519 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2544 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2510 yuan/ton. It closed at 2533 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, a decrease of 0.60%, with a trading volume of 339101 lots and a holding volume of 427094 lots, with a daily increase of -21842.

In terms of cost, the current supply of coal from production areas remains high, and the daily consumption of terminal power plants has risen slowly. The accumulation of high coal reserves and the lack of enthusiasm for market coal procurement have led to the highest level of port inventory this year, suppressing the driving force of coal price increases. In the context of loose supply and demand, the price of thermal coal is showing a weak and bearish trend. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.

Demand side, downstream acetic acid: reduced demand for acetic acid; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand decreases; Downstream chlorides: Mainstream factories in East China are undergoing shutdown and maintenance, with plans to restore equipment inventory. The demand for chlorides may increase slightly; There is currently no plan to shut down the formaldehyde and dimethyl ether units, and there is little fluctuation in methanol demand. The majority of downstream demand for methanol is bearish, and the negative factors on the methanol demand side have an impact.

On the supply side, the overall recovery of the equipment exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of December 5th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 344.00-345.00 US dollars per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 121.00-122.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 439.00-440.00 euros/ton, up 23 euros/ton.

The future forecast suggests that inventory may not fluctuate significantly. The improvement of traditional downstream demand is limited, and attention still needs to be paid to the external procurement volume of some olefin enterprises. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly experience range fluctuations.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, caustic soda prices declined in November. At the beginning of the month, the average market price in Shandong was 1037 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price in Shandong was around 1021 yuan/ton. The overall price decreased by 1.54%, and the price increased by 21.55% compared to the same period last year. On November 28th, the chemical index was 844 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 39.71% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 41.14% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has declined this month. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 1000-1080 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 990-1060 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. Local prices in Shandong remain stable and wait-and-see, while overall inventory levels of enterprises are low. In the short term, domestic alumina prices continue to show a strong trend, and demand for caustic soda is still acceptable, maintaining the current price trend of caustic soda.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 47th week of 2024 (11.18-11.22), there were 0 products that rose, 3 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are PVC (-1.00%), caustic soda (-0.91%), and baking soda (-0.13%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.34%.

Business analysts believe that caustic soda prices have been consolidating recently. The price of caustic soda is operating steadily, with low inventory in some areas. Downstream demand is expected to remain stable in the future, depending on downstream market demand.

In November, dichloromethane rose to a high for the year. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in mid November, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province rose to 3180 yuan/ton, an increase of 20% from the beginning of the month and 32.36% from the beginning of the year; As of the end of November, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong region was 2990 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 12.83%.

In the first ten days of the year, the rapid growth of dichloromethane led to a decrease in production load on the supply side, an increase in raw material prices on the cost side, and a lack of inventory due to smooth trading by traders, resulting in the dichloromethane market reaching a new high for the year. At high prices, the market has light shipments and inventory is under pressure. Manufacturers are considering the negative factors of weak demand and increased supply, and have slightly lowered their quotations. At the end of the month, there was an increase in enterprise maintenance, and manufacturers adjusted their quotations accordingly, resulting in a good market transaction atmosphere and proactive replenishment.

On the supply side: It is understood that several large factories have stopped for maintenance and low load operation during the month, resulting in tight market supply, which strongly supports the upward trend of dichloromethane market.

In terms of raw materials, the market price of methanol is mainly rising, and some production enterprises are limiting their shipments, which is driving up the price of methanol in mainland China. The inventory has significantly decreased, but it is still at a high level. As of November 29th, the spot price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2544 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.55% from the beginning of the month. The market for liquid chlorine in Shandong continues to rise, with increased confidence in business transactions and a stable bullish outlook.

In terms of demand, the market price of refrigerant R32 has risen, with little remaining annual quota, and spot prices continue to be tight. The circulation market is digesting inventory, and production shutdown and maintenance plans are clear. Some downstream home appliance manufacturers are facing insufficient quotas. The supply shortage trend in December is obvious, and offers are expected to continue to break through the previous high. Order prices in the first quarter are still expected to rise. Other applications should maintain a strong demand for purchasing and restock at low prices.

Business analysts believe that the maintenance of large factories is favorable, supported by the upward trend of raw materials, and the demand side is in urgent need of procurement. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 11600 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 11640 tons, with a price increase of 0.34%.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers’ quotations have slightly increased this week, with the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. The market transaction atmosphere is active, and industry insiders’ quotations are firm, with a focus on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which receives a lot of inquiries from the African market; Fruit shell charcoal can be shipped smoothly from low to medium index sources. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, and the industry should pay more attention to it.

Prediction: There is an increase in inquiries in the activated carbon market, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was around 1021 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.13% compared to last year. On November 21, the chemical index was 847 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 39.50% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 41.64% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)/p>

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 990-1060 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. In Jiangsu region, the price of caustic soda is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 1020-1080 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. In Inner Mongolia region, the price of caustic soda is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 2800-2900 yuan/ton (converted to 100%) for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. This week, the maintenance and supply of caustic soda facilities in some areas are tight, supporting the current selling price. Downstream purchases are mainly based on demand.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 46th week of 2024 (11.11-11.15), there were 0 products that rose, 4 products that fell, and 2 products that rose or fell zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are baking soda (-1.40%), caustic soda (-0.29%), and PVC (-0.19%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.33%.

Business Society analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating, and some areas of caustic soda facilities are undergoing maintenance. Downstream customers are mainly cautious and watching, and the overall supply and demand game is expected to maintain a consolidating operation of caustic soda in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.