According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 14th to 18th, MTBE prices rose from 4987 yuan/ton to 5100 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.26% during the period, a month on month decrease of 1.31%, and a year-on-year decrease of 24.16%. After the domestic MTBE market fell to a certain low, it slightly rose, boosted by the signing of more export orders. Some manufacturers prepared for port consolidation in advance, resulting in a decrease in external sales. The MTBE market was slightly boosted by the phased replenishment of downstream operators, and manufacturers intend to increase prices and volume.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The international oil price has fallen, and the main negative factors are the uncertainty of the US tariff policy and the ongoing OPEC+production increase. The market is concerned about the risk of oversupply and weakened demand. As of July 17th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the September contract was $69.52 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline, international oil prices may fall, and the expectation of a new round of retail price limits for refined oil products will be lowered. However, the gasoline market is expected to remain strong during the summer, and end-users and traders still have enthusiasm for purchasing. The impact of MTBE demand is mixed.
Supply side: Short term domestic MTBE supply side is affected by bearish factors.
As of the close on July 17th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $1.03/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $654.51-656.51/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $6.25/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $873.49-873.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $8.46/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $733.96-734.32/ton (207.24-207.34 cents/gallon).
Market forecast: Currently, raw material prices are still relatively high, and manufacturers’ willingness to offer wide discounts is not strong under the support of cost. The MTBE analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic MTBE market may experience narrow fluctuations.