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Before the festival, the liquid ammonia market rebounded steadily, and during the Spring Festival, it may have a smooth transition

On the weekend of the 17th, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the market of domestic liquid ammonia fluctuated slightly. Most of the quotations of enterprises were flat at the beginning of the week. The northern region stabilized and some enterprises increased slightly, but the range was not large, at 50-100 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the increase of liquid ammonia in this week (1.13-17) was 1.11%, mainly due to the small increase of the prices of some enterprises at the beginning of the week, which was mainly affected by the decrease of the ammonia volume of enterprises. At the end of the week, most manufacturers’ quotations were flat last week. Some enterprises in Shandong, the main production area, experienced a callback period at the end of December 2019. After new year’s day, they have been stable for nearly two weeks. Prices in Northwest China have remained stable. At present, local ammonia output is abundant, especially in Shandong Province, where some manufacturers have loose supply of goods and the pressure of enterprise shipment is increasing, but the manufacturers with large ammonia output are mainly stable in price, and they are going to sell goods one after another The main quotation is 2900-3100 yuan / ton.


In North China, the liquid ammonia is also stable, and the lack of demand leads to the slow delivery of liquid ammonia. After urea conversion, the ammonia quantity is controlled, and the inventory pressure of the enterprise is slightly relieved. At present, there are many downstream stoppages, and the main quotation in North China is 2800-3000 yuan / ton.


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The pressure of environmental protection in Hebei is still not to be underestimated, which leads to the majority of enterprises limiting production. The shutdown of large downstream enterprises, such as China and Afghanistan, leads to weak demand in the downstream, more enterprises accumulating in the warehouse, and no significant change in price. The mainstream quotation in Hebei is 2800-2950 yuan / ton.


Over the weekend, the market in Central China also stabilized. The delivery pressure in Hubei was slightly better than that before the festival. Part of Henan was affected by environmental protection pressure, and the price gave way to more profits. Currently, the liquid ammonia market is in a bad atmosphere and weak operation. The mainstream quotation in Henan is 2700-2850 yuan / ton.


From the perspective of the future market, the business community believes that the current market is slightly adjusted, the enterprise quotation is not changed much, most enterprises have room to make profits, many devices are converted to urea production, and the production of liquid ammonia is affected to a certain extent, so as to balance the inventory backlog of manufacturers. It is expected that the transition will be stable before the festival. The price of liquid ammonia is not likely to rise or fall significantly, and the market may continue to maintain stability.

Cost reduction, Increasing pressure of DOP price decline

1、 Price trend


According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of plasticizer DOP has been stable this week, and the DOP market has been stable. As of January 17, the price of DOP in East China was 7300.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price of DOP at the beginning of the week, down 13.95% compared with the same period last year.


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2、 Market analysis


It can be seen from the figure that although the price of DOP raw material octanol has remained stable this week, the overall price of octanol has declined after new year’s day, the cost of plasticizer has declined, the driving force of DOP’s rise has weakened, and DOP’s market is negative.


In terms of phthalic anhydride, the price of phthalic anhydride fell in shock this week. After the new year’s day, the price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline, and the cost of DOP fell sharply, which was negative for DOP market. The downward pressure of DOP is high.


3、 Future forecast


According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP of business agency, the raw material price of DOP continued to fall this week, the cost of DOP decreased, and the downward pressure of DOP increased. However, with the Spring Festival approaching, downstream customers are stocking up, logistics is out of service, high-speed transportation is difficult, and transportation costs are increasing, which leads to the cost increase of DOP manufacturers, and the price reduction space of DOP manufacturers is limited. In general, the downward pressure of DOP is increasing, and it is expected that the future DOP prices will maintain stability.

The price of potash fluctuated and consolidated this week (01.13-01.17)

1、 Price trend


Market analysis of potash products


(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)


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According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average factory price of domestic light potash at the beginning of the week was 6325.00 yuan / ton, while the average factory price of domestic light potash at the end of the week was 6337.50 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.2%. The current price was down 9.14% year on year.


2、 Analysis of influencing factors


Products: the market of potash market this week is low and consolidated. There are still new arrivals of imported potash at the port, but it can not be sold to the outside world temporarily. The quotation of traders is stable. Affected by the approaching of Spring Festival, the market of potash market is running generally, and the price of potash is rising slightly. The actual trading volume of the market is relatively general, the downstream purchase volume is on the low side for a small amount of replenishment, and the domestic potassium carbonate market is volatile and consolidated. According to the statistics of the business agency: in January, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate is about 6200-6600 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.


3、 Future forecast


Potash analysts of the business association believe that the recent consolidation of the nitric acid market is the main market, spot trading is tepid, the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and it is expected that there will be no big improvement. In the short term, the price of potash may be mainly consolidation, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

Glycol price increase (1.6-1.10)

1、 Price trend


The ex factory price of glycol fell slightly this week, according to the data of business agency. On January 10, the average ex factory price of oil to glycol in North China was 5450 yuan / ton, up 7.92% from last week.


At the beginning of this week, the price of ethylene glycol in East China was 5090 yuan / ton. Later, with the change of the situation in the United States and Iraq, it rose and recalled. By Friday, the price was 5290 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton, up 3.93%.


2、 Analysis of influencing factors


As of January 8, the total operating rate of ethylene glycol in China was 67.81%, coal production 70.17% and non coal production 65.99%, basically the same as last week.


In terms of the unit, the ethylene glycol unit with an annual output of 400000 tons in Inner Mongolia Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. has been operated stably since the successful feeding on December 26, with a daily output of about 500 tons. The 700000 ton ethylene glycol unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was commissioned on the 10th.


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As of January 9, the ethylene glycol inventory in East China’s main port was about 350000 tons, down 13000 tons or 15.66% from last Thursday, down 15000 tons or 4.11% from this Monday. Among them, Zhangjiagang has 175000 tons, 13000 tons lower than last Thursday; Ningbo has 62000 tons; Shanghai and Changshu have 46000 tons; Taicang has 47000 tons.


According to the news, the East China port is expected to reach 178000 tons of cargo next week, of which 65000 tons are planned to arrive at Zhangjiagang port and 43000 tons are planned to arrive at Taicang wharf.


In the downstream, polyester market gradually shut down for holidays. At present, the operation rate of the unit has declined slightly. After the early price went up, the enthusiasm of the downstream for purchasing high priced raw materials has weakened.


3、 Future forecast


This week, due to the conflict between the United States and Iran, the crude oil rose. Based on the factors expected to increase the cost, the price of glycol changed to a depressed state and the trend was stronger. In addition, due to the low arrival of the port, the main port inventory in East China is at an absolute low level, and the accumulated inventory expectation in the early stage is not realized, which also contributed to the increase of glycol price. However, in the later stage, the delivery of new devices will be put into normal operation, and the supply of goods will be supplemented. In January, the traditional demand for glycol is off-season. In the long run, the price of glycol has a slight downward pressure.

Acrylic acid market price rose slightly this week (1.6-1.10)

1、 Acrylic price trend:


Acrylic market rose slightly this week, according to the data in the business club’s bulk list. As of January 10, the average price of acrylic acid enterprises was 8166.67 yuan / ton, up 0.41% compared with the beginning of the week. In a three-month cycle, it rose 6.06% year-on-year. On October 10, the main quotation of domestic acrylic acid market was 7400-9300 yuan / ton. On January 10, the acrylic commodity index was 40.95, flat with yesterday, down 59.05% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01), and up 66.67% from the lowest point of 24.57 on November 26, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)


2、 Market analysis:


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Product: acrylic market slightly rose this week. The cost support has been greatly increased. The acrylic acid production enterprises have not yet fully recovered their devices. The spot supply is limited. The downstream enterprises prepare goods orderly before the festival. The inquiry strength has been improved. The negotiation atmosphere is good. Some factories raise their offers, and the acrylic acid market is stable. As of October 10, the price of acrylic acid of Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. has been temporarily stable, with 7600 yuan / ton of puic acid and 8100 yuan / ton of refined acid. The specific transaction price is discussed in a single way. Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. has 7800 yuan / ton of puic acid and 9400 yuan / ton of refined acid. The specific transaction price is discussed in a single way. The price of acrylic acid of Wanhua chemical and Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has remained stable, mainly for contracts and stable customers. At present, acrylic acid The price is 7800 yuan / ton.


Industry chain: this week (1.6-1.10) the market in the upstream propylene Shandong region rose, or 2.53%. Influenced by international crude oil, domestic propylene price rebounded from the bottom at the end of December, rising continuously. On January 5 and 6, it was generally stable, on July 7 and August, it was stable on September 9, and on October, it continued to increase by about 100 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction has risen to about 7050-7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7050 yuan / ton. It is expected that propylene market price may still rise in recent days.


3、 Future forecast:


According to the acrylic analysts of the business club, in the near future, the price of raw propylene has been rising continuously, with strong cost support and a good atmosphere for goods preparation in the downstream before the festival. It is expected that the acrylic market will rise steadily in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the upstream, downstream and mainstream market conditions.

This week, the price of pure benzene is stable and weak (from January 6, 2020 to January 10, 2020)

1、 Price trend


According to a large number of data on the business club’s list, this week’s pure benzene operation was weak and stable. This week, Jincheng Petrochemical raised 50 yuan / ton on Wednesday, Sinochem lowered 50 yuan / ton on Friday, and the listing prices of other enterprises were stable. The selling price of pure benzene on Friday is 5500-5950 yuan / ton.


2、 Analysis and comment


1. Product: this week’s pure benzene port inventory is slightly lower than last week. Affected by the situation in the Middle East at the beginning of the week, oil prices soared, driving the price of pure benzene up in the external market and the domestic market. However, in the later period, the oil price plummeted and the support surface weakened. In addition, the downstream trading has been light and the profit is insufficient, so the market fell back.


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2. Crude oil: this week’s oil price shows a parabola trend, and it went down for four consecutive days after Monday’s big rise. Earlier this week, oil prices rose as concerns about the supply or decline of crude oil increased as tensions in the Middle East escalated last week. Later, oil prices fell sharply due to an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories and signs of easing in the Middle East. WTI fell 6.1% and Brent fell 2.8% compared to January 3.


3. Downstream industry: this week, styrene market is in a narrow range of volatility consolidation trend. The arrival of styrene in the main port increased. Generally speaking, the styrene market was forced to stay short this week, with a trading deadlock, up 1.17% compared with last Friday.


This week, aniline enterprises in the lower reaches of Shandong province competed for shipment, and Jinling reduced 100 yuan / ton, a drop of 0.52%. The upstream pure benzene price is still high, the downstream demand is light, and the profits of aniline enterprises are in deficit.


3、 Future forecast


1. Crude oil: next week, the oil price will return to the previous level and wait for the follow-up direction.


2. Market: the stock up before the year is basically over, near the Spring Festival, with heavy snow in the north and limited transportation, it is difficult for Northern resources to enter East China for arbitrage, and East China’s supply may remain at the current level. Styrene is expected to arrive more next week, and inventory will continue to rise. Downstream terminal digestion pressure, receiving intention is weak, market bearish mood spread. Downstream market will continue to limit the recovery of pure benzene market.


Comprehensive consideration, it is expected that the price of pure benzene will continue to consolidate in the next week.
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The demand is light, and the price of polyacrylamide is stable and weak in the first ten days of January

Commodity index: on January 10, 2020, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 97.35, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.13% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.70% from 95.72, the lowest point on April 10, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)


Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on January 1, 2020, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was about 15950 yuan / ton, and on December 1, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was 15933.33 yuan / ton, which was slightly reduced by 0.1% this month.


Industrial chain:


Upstream: at the beginning of January 2020, the main quotation of acrylonitrile in the domestic market fluctuated and increased. The quotation on the first day was about 11200 yuan / ton. During this period, the quotation was reduced by 100 yuan / ton for many times, and ended at 10800 yuan / ton in the first ten days. Since the second half of 2019, the price of acrylonitrile has been lowered for many times, and by the first ten days of January 2020, the decline rate has been about 3500-4000 yuan / ton, and the fluctuation rate is about 20%.


Downstream: in winter, the construction of water treatment project is relatively small, and the downstream procurement has a great impact. At present, it has entered the coldest three or nine days of the year. The Spring Festival is not far away, and the construction ushers in the most slack season.


Manufacturer: from December 19, 2019 to January 10, 2020, Gongyi factory, the main production area of Henan Province, received the notice of production suspension, all of which were shut down, and the manufacturer had relatively sufficient stock. The vehicles under the Fifth Five-Year Plan were shut down, and the freight cost increased. The market price of polyacrylamide of the manufacturer first increased by 50 yuan / ton, and then some of the manufacturers also decreased due to weak demand.




This round of intermittent shutdown from the end of July 2019 is basically over, and the manufacturers start to resume production one after another, and the shutdown cycle returns. In the fourth quarter, they stop production again according to the requirements of environmental protection:


1. In late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production suspension, which requires: according to the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution status and future pollution weather, the municipal office requires all deep treatment enterprises to stop production before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the office.


2. After resumption of production, the production will be stopped again: the production will be resumed for ten days in August, and it will be stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the production stop is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance.


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3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal.


4. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production.


5. From the beginning of January to the 10th, Gongyi water treatment related enterprises in the main production area of Henan province did not start production, but continued to stop production. It is reported that the local environmental protection is often inspected, and the manufacturer’s inventory is sufficient.


Future market forecast: according to the analysis of the business agency, the demand for the Spring Festival holiday is light and the supply of goods is sufficient; as the manufacturer is still in the period of production suspension, the impact of the upstream acrylonitrile price reduction is not significant. To sum up, polyacrylamide market is stable in the future and may weaken in the case of weak demand.

Narrow range consolidation of BDO market in China (12.23-12.27)

1、 Price trend

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of December 27, the average price of the domestic BDO market was 9636 yuan / ton, down 1.47% month on month, down 6.45% year on year.


ammonium persulfate

2、 Market analysis


Product: this week, the focus of domestic BDO market was adjusted in a narrow range. In the early stage, the on-site load was low, the transportation in some areas was slow, the spot supply to the market was small, the factory continued to offer at a high level, the supply of low-end goods was reduced, and the focus of mainstream negotiation was slightly higher. Although crane coal has been restarted, its load is not high, and it mainly delivers contract orders, with no spot delivery. In the near future, Tianye has a driving plan, which coincides with the trial period of new sales models such as the hanging of settlement and unified marketing. The downstream of the main force should wait and see rationally and carefully wait for the guidance of clear news. At present, in addition to PBT commencement, other downstream multi-dimensional rigid demand; and the Spring Festival is coming, some downstream factories will have holidays in advance, and the demand side support is insufficient. At the same time, with the start of the negative, the supply side of the good weakened, the industry to see the stability of the future dominant mentality.


In terms of devices, this week, Tianye’s 210000 T / a device was shut down, and there is a restart plan this month, but the exact time is not yet determined; crane coal’s December 15 sunrise products, with a current load of about 50%; black cat’s December 20 restart plan; Chongqing Jianfeng’s December 15 shutdown and overhaul, with a month or so expected; new industry has produced qualified products, but has not yet entered the market. No planned changes have been heard for other devices. The overall market operating rate this week is around 66.6%. (domestic production capacity increases by 60000t / A for Shaanxi black cat and 60000t / A for Xinjiang new industry, and removes 30000 T / A for Shaanxi chemical and Yizheng Dalian long-term parking).


Industry chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol, the domestic methanol price continued to fall this week, with a strong bearish atmosphere in the market. At the beginning of the week, the guiding price in the northwest region dropped by 30-50 yuan / ton to 1850 yuan / ton. However, due to the impact of snowfall, most regions were temporarily closed at high speed, and upstream factories had accumulated inventory, resulting in poor transaction atmosphere. In the second half of the week, the factory had no choice but to make up the freight again.


potassium persulphate (500×300)


Calcium carbide: this week, the domestic calcium carbide market increased in a narrow range, the inventory in Wuhai and Ningxia was low, and the enterprise’s rising mentality was gradually enhanced. With the recovery of the price, some devices that were shut down or load reduced in the early stage gradually increased, and the supply increased slightly. 

3、 Future forecast


At present, the long-term delivery in the field is relatively stable, the spot market price is high, and the negotiation focus is high. In addition to PBT start-up in the downstream, other downstream multi-dimensional rigid demand; and the Spring Festival is coming, some downstream factories will have holidays in advance, and the demand side support is insufficient. At the same time, Tianye has a driving plan in the near future, and the main downstream is more cautious to wait and see, waiting for the guidance of clear news. Under the supply and demand game, BDO analysts of the business agency predict that the domestic BDO market will be stronger next week, focusing on the device dynamics and downstream demand changes.

MDI price slightly lower (12.23-12.27)

1、 Price trend


According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of December 27, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market was 12850 yuan / ton, up 1.58% month on month and 11.02% year on year. The overall market was slightly lower.


2、 Market analysis


Product: the market price of aggregate MDI fell slightly this week, not much. This week, the weekly guidance prices of kostrong and East Cao Ruian kept steady and fell one by one, leading to the confusion of the post market mentality of the industry. Other main factories are still dominated by market control, there is no delivery pressure for the time being, and there are not many shippers in stock. In addition, considering that the settlement price of manufacturers at the end of the month is likely to be high, it is prudent to negotiate delivery. The downstream industry keeps a wait-and-see attitude towards the current “no go” market price, and the intention to stock a large number of goods temporarily is not strong. Near the end of next week, the manufacturers are waiting for the guidance of new moon listing of suppliers. The information expects that the market price will be stable in the next week with little fluctuation. Wait and see the weekly guidance price and downstream delivery of Shanghai Kesi Chuang. In addition, Wanhua Ningbo equipment will be restarted one after another, waiting for the manufacturer’s device announcement.


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On the aspect of enterprises, the market news learned that a factory in Shanghai polymerized MDI’s quotation for dealers this week of 12300 yuan / ton, which was stable on a month on month basis. The market was informed that an enterprise in Ruian, Zhejiang Province, reported an aggregate MDI offer of 12600 yuan / ton this week, down from last week.


Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, the inventory of East China’s ports remained at a low level of around 80000 tons, and the spot supply was still tight. The unexpected shutdown of European devices at the beginning of the week and the increase of downstream demand for pure benzene in the United States led to a sharp rise in the external market of the United States and Europe. The market price is hard to find because the main refineries have the conditions to adjust the price. The negotiated price rises to 6000-6050 yuan / ton. In the second half of the week, the external market fell back rationally, the main refineries failed to adjust the price, the market pull up atmosphere weakened, and the focus fell to 5850-5950 yuan / ton. In the past week, the downstream products of pure benzene, such as styrene and caprolactam, faced losses, which resisted the high price of pure benzene and also restricted the price rise of pure benzene.


Aniline: the domestic aniline market fell slightly. Aniline cost is under great pressure, and the plant is in the stage of loss at present. However, the starting load of downstream enterprises is not high, and most of them mainly consume the raw material inventory in the early stage, so the demand is poor, and the shipment of northern aniline factory is not smooth. But the East China enterprise ships goods primarily, does not have the sales pressure. It is reported that Nanhua has plans to purchase aniline for shipping, so the market price keeps falling in North China.


3、 Future forecast


Business Club view: near the end of next week, the operators are waiting for the new moon listing guidance of the supplier manufacturers. MDI analysts predict that the market price will be stable in the next week with little fluctuation. Wait and see the weekly guidance price and downstream delivery of Shanghai Kesi Chuang. In addition, Wanhua Ningbo equipment will be restarted one after another, waiting for the manufacturer’s device announcement.

Butadiene market stalemate (12.23-12.27)

1、 Price trend


Recently, the domestic butadiene market is stagnant. As of December 27, the price of butadiene was 8345 yuan / ton, down 3.59% on a month on month basis and 13.40% on a year-on-year basis, according to the monitoring of business club.


2、 Analysis of influencing factors


Product: in this cycle, the domestic butadiene market is slightly consolidated, and the market trend is slightly stagnant. In the week, Liaotong chemical suspended online export, and Fushun Petrochemical only sold 240 tons of goods on Thursday. The tightening supply of goods in Northeast China has supported the mentality of some businesses. But Jiutai, Huayu and other manufacturers normally ship goods, and the slightly high price node delivery situation is not good, resulting in a cautious market atmosphere. East China is also temporarily supported by the supply side news, but the market is full of low price news. The market trend continues to be weak in the week, and sporadic high price offers lack of real single support. In the later part of this week, Fushun’s supply of goods was restarted for export, and Zhejiang Petrochemical plant had a short-term commissioning plan, which led to the market’s return to weakness due to market uncertainty.


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In terms of plant dynamics, Sinopec East China butadiene price was reduced by 400 yuan / ton in a week, and 8500 yuan / ton was implemented since 23rd; Liaotong chemical butadiene continued to suspend on-line export; Fushun Petrochemical’s export volume of goods sources was 7800-7860 yuan / ton, and the total volume of transactions in a week was 240 tons; Inner Mongolia Jiutai 70000 ton / year butadiene plant was in normal operation, with a quotation of 7600 yuan / ton, stable compared with the same period last week The 100000 t / a oxidative dehydrogenation unit of sippon Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance on December 16 and restarted on December 26, with an offer of 8900 yuan / T; the 100000 t / a oxidative dehydrogenation unit of Nanjing Chengzhi was shut down on the evening of December 22 and restarted on the afternoon of December 25, with a supply contract; according to market news, the 200000 t / a new butadiene extraction unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical is planned to be put into operation this weekend, please continue to pay attention to the details.


Industrial chain: styrene butadiene rubber: in this cycle, the factory price of domestic styrene butadiene rubber sales companies has been falling, with the main decline of 200 yuan / ton, only PetroChina South China and Sinopec East China sales companies haven’t kept pace. As of the receipt of the draft, the main factory supply price of domestic styrene butadiene 1502 is 10800-11100 yuan / ton. In this cycle, the operating rate of domestic styrene butadiene plant is around 5.80% this week; Qilu, Jihua, Fushun, Lanhua, Shenhua, Weitai and Bridgestone styrene butadiene plant are all in normal operation, and two lines of operation are resumed near Yangzi Petrochemical styrene butadiene plant on the 23rd; in addition, Tianjin Lugang, Hangzhou Yibang and Fuxiang chemical styrene butadiene rubber plant continue to stop.


Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: in this cycle, the ex factory price of high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of the mainstream domestic sales company fell by 300 yuan / ton compared with the previous cycle; as of the receipt of the manuscript, the ex factory price of high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of the mainstream domestic sales company was around 10800 yuan / ton; Sinopec East China and PetroChina South China sales company did not make any adjustment. In this cycle, the operation rate of domestic high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant is around 60%, the load of Yanshan cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant is not full, other mainstream cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plants in China keep normal operation, and the overall operation rate of high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant is less than that of the previous cycle.


3、 Future forecast


On the positive side, the operation of sporadic devices is not good, and there is a bottom support for the market just in need of bargain hunting. On the negative side, the supply side of the market is relatively abundant, cargo continues to arrive at the port to supplement, and the downstream market trend of the industrial chain is weak. The supply side of the previous cycle is temporarily supported by downstream demand, which makes it difficult to boost the butadiene market. As the supply side support weakens, the market supply of the next cycle may be gradually relaxed. In addition, with the arrival of ships and the trial run plan of Zhejiang Petrochemical plant, it is difficult to find good news in the short-term butadiene market. Butadiene analysts of the business community predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market will be extended To continue the weak situation, it is suggested to pay attention to the market supply and demand fundamentals and transaction guidance.