According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the recent price trend of the domestic rare earth market has been mainly volatile, while the price trend of the domestic light rare earth market has remained stable. The rare earth index on September 17 was 516 points, a decrease of 48.76% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 90.41% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)
The price trend of domestic metal neodymium, neodymium oxide, metal praseodymium, praseodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy has temporarily stabilized, while the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide has slightly decreased. As of the 18th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 645000 yuan/ton, and the price remained unchanged this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 525000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.41% this week; The price of neodymium oxide is 537500 yuan/ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable; The price of neodymium metal is 665000 yuan/ton, and it has remained stable this week; The price of metal praseodymium is 670000 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged this week; The price of praseodymium oxide is 527500 yuan/ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable this week.
In early September, the trend of the light rare earth market rose. Due to the impact of regional rainfall weather, some rare earth mining enterprises were restricted in production, and some rare earth manufacturers took the initiative to reduce production, which further slowed down the growth rate of spot inventory in the market. Separation plants and metal plants in Sichuan region will have varying degrees of production reduction and shutdown behavior, and the price trend of light rare earth market will rise due to supply reduction. However, in the middle of the year, downstream resistance has intensified, and the procurement of inquiries has come to an end. In addition, downstream magnetic material enterprises have reduced new orders, intensifying upstream and downstream competition, and the domestic light rare earth market price trend is mainly stable.
According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 843000 and 846000 units respectively in August, with a month on month increase of 4.7% and 8.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 22% and 27%, respectively; From January to August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 5.434 million and 5.374 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 36.9% and 39.2%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, coupled with the opening of the Golden Nine Silver Ten Year Plan, the demand for new energy has increased, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles is beneficial for the domestic rare earth market prices. The light rare earth market still has support.
After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, the export of rare earth and its products reached 9618 tons in August, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%; From January to August, the cumulative export of rare earth and its products reached 79083 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The export volume of rare earth commodities in China increased, which to some extent supported the prices of the rare earth market. The price trend of the light rare earth market was fluctuating.
Future Forecast: With the recovery of rare earth raw material supply in the later stage, the ordering and procurement of magnetic material enterprises will come to an end. It is expected that in the short term, the pressure on rare earth market prices will increase, and the rare earth market will remain mainly volatile; In the medium to long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, the global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.