The price of ethylene glycol will drop significantly in May 2026. As of May 22, the average price of the domestic oil to ethylene glycol market was 4903.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.88% compared to the average price of 5155 yuan/ton on April 30.

In terms of port ethylene glycol, as of the 22nd, the basis price of port ethylene glycol spot contracts (starting from 500 tons) fluctuates with the market. The basis price of spot contracts this week runs within the range of+90 to+95. As of the close, the basis price of contracts in May is+100 to+102, the basis price of contracts next week (before 6.05) is+110 to+115, and the basis price of contracts in June is+135 to+137.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol for whole vehicle manufacturers is 4350-4450 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of May 21st, the negotiated landed price of Chinese ship cargo was around 623 US dollars/ton, and the negotiated landed price of Southeast Asian ship cargo was around 715 US dollars/ton.
Changes in Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory in May 2026:
On May 21, 2026, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 683000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons compared to the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China on May 18, which was 678000 tons; Compared to April 30th, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 772400 tons, a decrease of 89400 tons in inventory; Compared to March 30th, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 953000 tons, a decrease of 270000 tons in inventory.
Analysis of the reasons for the price reduction of ethylene glycol on May 22, 2026:
On May 22, 2026, there was a double kill in the ethylene glycol futures market, with the main contract for ethylene glycol falling sharply, closing at 4587 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 3.19%, and hitting a low of 4483 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol at the port fell by 3.88% daily, and the spot price of ethylene glycol for domestic car delivery fell by 2.1% daily. This decline is a concentrated outbreak of cost collapse, supply-demand imbalance, and emotional resonance of funds, with the core triggering factor being the sudden news of the US Iran agreement draft being reached.
1、 Cost side: The disappearance of geopolitical premiums and the sharp drop in crude oil prices have led to the collapse of support
The sudden news directly triggered a drop in oil prices. On the early morning of May 22nd Beijing time, the media quoted Arab satellite television as saying that the United States and Iran had reached an agreement on the final draft of the agreement under the mediation of Pakistan, and the relevant content is expected to be announced within a few hours. With the expectation of “easing Middle East geopolitical risks and the return of Iranian crude oil to the market”, Brent crude oil quickly plunged from around $109 per barrel, with a intraday decline of over 6%. WTI crude oil fell below the $100 mark, directly driving the collapse of cost support for ethylene glycol.
The cost of producing ethylene glycol from oil is rapidly decreasing. Ethylene glycol is highly correlated with crude oil, and the sharp drop in oil prices has directly compressed the cost space for producing ethylene glycol from oil. The “risk premium” that was previously pushed up due to geopolitical conflicts has been quickly squeezed out, and the overall price center of the industrial chain has shifted downwards.
The cost of coal production is weakening synchronously, and the operating rate remains high. Domestic thermal coal prices remain stable and weak, with coal to ethylene glycol profits recovering and plant operating rates maintaining above 60%, further lowering the bottom line of spot costs.

2、 Supply side: Domestic high construction+revised import expectations supply pressure still exists
Domestic coal to ethylene glycol supply continues to increase. In May, the domestic coal to ethylene glycol production rate remained high, and the supply of goods was sufficient, creating sustained supply pressure on the market.
The expected reduction in imports is lagging behind, and there is still a buffer for short-term arrivals. Although the maintenance of multiple facilities in the Middle East has led to a decline in the expected import volume from May to June, the short-term arrival rhythm has not been fully reflected, and the market has partially advanced the pricing of “import reduction”, which has not formed an immediate supply gap.
Although the port inventory has been reduced, the absolute quantity is still relatively high. Although the inventory in the main ports of East China is in a continuous destocking channel, it is still at a moderate level in recent years, and its support for prices is limited.
3、 Demand side: Polyester off-season+terminal weakness, negative feedback, continuous fermentation
The operating rate of polyester has declined year-on-year, and the procurement of essential goods has shrunk. The average operating rate of domestic polyester factories in May was only 75% -77%, a year-on-year decrease of 3-5 percentage points, and the demand for essential purchases of ethylene glycol significantly shrank.
The terminal weaving orders are bleak, and there is a serious backlog of inventory. The operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is only 66%, with orders mainly consisting of small orders and fast response orders. The terminal inventory is high, and polyester factories actively reduce negative loads, forming a negative feedback loop of “weak demand → negative load reduction → less procurement → price decline”.
Raw material inventory has dropped to a low level, and the market has no intention of stockpiling. The raw material stocking days of the polyester factory are only 7.5 days, which is the lowest level in the same period of the past three years. It only maintains essential procurement and lacks purchasing support in terms of price.
4、 Funds and Emotions: High level profit taking+Break level stop loss, amplified decline
The early increase was too large, and profit taking orders were concentrated and left the market. Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East from March to April, the main contract for ethylene glycol accumulated a large amount of profit taking. After May, with the expectation of geopolitical easing heating up, funds concentrated on profit taking.
Key support breaking triggers programmed stop loss. On May 22nd, the main contract fell below the key support level of 4600 yuan/ton, triggering a large number of programmed trading stop loss orders. Short selling forces were concentrated and released, amplifying the intraday decline.
Market expectations have turned pessimistic, with strong buying and wait-and-see sentiment. Due to weak terminal demand and loose cost support, the market’s expectations for the traditional off-season in June and July continue to deteriorate. Most traders and downstream factories remain cautious and unwilling to take the initiative to accept orders.

From May 11th to 15th, the domestic aggregated MDI market prices stopped falling and rose, with an average price of 18933 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. On May 15th, the average price was 19433 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.64% during the week and a year-on-year increase of 17.42%. Frequent reports of major factory maintenance within the week have boosted market confidence. Some traders have raised their prices and lowered their prices. Overseas orders remain stable, while domestic demand is mainly driven by essential needs, with limited incremental demand.
Supply side: The MDI units with a production capacity of 130000 tons/year and 70000 tons/year in Tosa, Japan, are scheduled to start shutdown and maintenance at the end of April, with an expected duration of about 40 days. The 300000 ton/year MDI unit at a factory in Shanghai was shut down for maintenance on May 11th, with an expected duration of about a month, and the supply side remains tight; The company’s 250000 ton/year MDI plant located in South Korea is operating at low load.

On the cost side: This week, the pure benzene market has weakened and fallen, and the overall supply and demand expectations for pure benzene are still tight. Port inventories continue to decline. At present, there are still significant differences between the United States and Iran on the content of the peace talks, geopolitical fluctuations, short-term strong oil prices, and support for pure benzene reserves. However, due to the drag of demand, the upward trend is weak, and we are paying attention to the dynamics of the US Iran situation.
Demand side: Downstream demand is average, with an increase in inquiries, but actual transactions are limited.
Future forecast: The overall supply of the aggregated MDI market is tight, and domestic demand support is average. We will closely monitor downstream feedback and expect the aggregated MDI market to consolidate and operate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda has been consolidating this month. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 1240 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 1237.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%. On April 29th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 81.97, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 65.24% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 4.89% from the lowest point of 78.15 points on January 15, 2026. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the baking soda market is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is operating steadily, with a factory price of 1100-1200 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1150-1250 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of soda ash increased in April. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 1212 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 1222 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.83% and a decrease of 13.21% compared to the same period last year.
According to analysts from Business Society, the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently. The upstream raw material soda ash has been consolidating overall in April, while downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently. The demand enthusiasm is average, and there is a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that baking soda prices will mainly fluctuate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

The calcium carbide market continued to decline after a slight rebound in the first half of April, with a significant drop in market prices. The national benchmark price fell from 2724 yuan/ton on April 1st to 2324 yuan/ton on April 28th, with a monthly decline of 14.68%, and the price fell back to the lowest level of the year.

The decline is mainly due to three aspects: on the supply side, the concentrated resumption of production and load reduction devices in the early stage, the high operating rate of the industry, the accumulation of inventory due to sufficient supply, and the strong willingness of enterprises to lower prices and ship goods; On the demand side, the downstream PVC and BDO industries have entered the spring maintenance cycle, with a decrease in daily consumption of calcium carbide and a shift towards just in demand procurement. In addition, PVC prices have fallen synchronously, and industry losses have expanded, leading to increased pressure on downstream prices; On the cost side, the price of upstream raw material blue charcoal has remained stable but declined, and the production cost of calcium carbide has decreased, further opening up downward space.
Prediction of low-level operation in the calcium carbide market in May. As of the end of April, the price of calcium carbide has fallen to near the cost line of some enterprises, with a slowing down trend and a tendency to stabilize, and the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Based on supply and demand as well as cost factors, the calcium carbide market will mainly operate at a low level in May. In the short term, in early May, the main production areas of Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi entered a period of power and equipment maintenance, easing supply pressure. Before the May Day holiday, a small amount of downstream stocking demand and low prices of blue charcoal supported the bottom, which will curb further price declines. However, the PVC market is still weak, inventory has not been fully depleted, and prices are unlikely to rebound significantly, with a narrow range of fluctuation between 2300-2450 yuan/ton. In the medium term, strict control of production capacity and environmental constraints will maintain stable supply, but the weak demand for PVC is difficult to improve quickly. The cost and policy constraints will form a range, and the overall situation will still maintain a low-level oscillation bottoming out trend, making it difficult to see significant fluctuations.

In March 2026, the domestic bisphenol A market experienced a strong outbreak, with prices showing a significant upward trend, staging a roller coaster ride of “first skyrocketing, then rebounding, and then stabilizing”, becoming the most industry focused product in the chemical market that month. As of March 31st, the benchmark price of bisphenol A in Shengyi Society was reported at 11520.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 42.75% compared to the beginning of this month. The price is in the high range of nearly a year, about 14% higher than the historical median, and the market activity and price increase have exceeded expectations.

In March, the bisphenol A market showed an overall upward trend of “explosive rise rational correction stabilization and recovery”, and the market can be integrated into two core stages. In the first ten days, the bisphenol A market completely broke the previous stable and stagnant trend, quickly opening up a crazy rising mode of “one price per day”. The price skyrocketed from 8070 yuan/ton on March 1 to 12360 yuan/ton on March 9, with a staggering increase of 53.16% in just nine days. In the second half of the year, influenced by the rise and fall of international crude oil prices and the increasing resistance of downstream enterprises to high prices, the price of bisphenol A experienced a rational correction, dropping to a minimum of 10510 yuan/ton. Subsequently, it gradually stabilized and rebounded under the dual driving force of continuous cost support and downstream demand replenishment. At the end of the month, the price remained stable at 11520 yuan/ton, up nearly 10% from the low point of the correction, and the market supply and demand pattern returned to a tight balance state.
The significant rise in the bisphenol A market in March was the result of the synergistic resonance of three core factors: cost, supply, and demand. The rigid support of the cost side and the tight balance between market supply and demand were the core driving forces behind the price increase.
Cost side: Driven by crude oil, phenols and ketones rise together, forming rigid support
In the production cost structure of bisphenol A, phenol ketone (phenol, acetone) is the core raw material, accounting for more than 70%, and its price fluctuations directly determine the cost trend of bisphenol A. Since March, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has continued to intensify, and international crude oil prices have fluctuated significantly. Brent crude oil futures prices once exceeded $110 per barrel, providing strong cost support for the entire petrochemical industry chain. As a result, the prices of phenol and acetone, the core raw materials of bisphenol A, have skyrocketed significantly, directly pushing up the production cost of bisphenol A and forcing domestic bisphenol A production enterprises to continuously raise the factory price of their products, becoming one of the core drivers of price increases.
Supply side: Large factories are raising prices, while spot prices are tight, exacerbating the tense market atmosphere
The tightening trend on the supply side has further amplified the upward momentum of prices, becoming an important driving force for the market to rise. In March, the operating rate of mainstream bisphenol A production facilities in China (such as Jiangsu Ruiheng, Nantong Xingchen, Longjiang Chemical, etc.) remained at 6-8.5%, and did not reach full load operation, resulting in relatively limited overall market supply. At the same time, the overall inventory turnover days in the industry have dropped to 10-15 days, significantly lower than the historical average, and the spot circulation remains tight. In addition, manufacturers tend to prioritize meeting the supply needs of long-term contract customers, resulting in a lower quantity of spot goods for export. Traders take advantage of this situation to hoard goods and avoid selling them, further exacerbating the irrational atmosphere of “buying up instead of buying down” in the market and continuously driving up prices.

Demand side: With the arrival of peak season and the release of essential needs, solid support is provided
March is the traditional peak season for consumption in the chemical industry, with downstream core application industries such as epoxy resin and polycarbonate (PC) resuming work and production, and procurement demand being concentrated. According to industry data, the combined consumption of bisphenol A by PC and epoxy resin exceeds 97%, and the growth in demand for both directly drives the market consumption of bisphenol A. Although the price of bisphenol A remained high in March, downstream factories had to replenish their inventory for essential needs in order to maintain normal production progress. This demand support provided a solid bottom line for bisphenol A prices, further boosting their sustained upward trend.
Downstream industries are under pressure, and cost pressures continue to spread
The skyrocketing price of bisphenol A has directly led to a sharp increase in production costs for downstream products such as epoxy resin and PC, with the powder coating industry being the most affected. As of late March, the price of bisphenol A has risen by over 3200 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year. This cost pressure has forced dozens of domestic powder coating companies (such as Fujian Wan’an, Hanson Bond, etc.) to issue price increase letters intensively, with product price increases ranging from 15% to 70%. Downstream enterprises are generally facing the dual pressure of “significant cost increases” and “fierce competition in the terminal market”, resulting in a significant compression of profit margins. Some small and medium-sized enterprises are unable to withstand the continuously rising cost pressure, leading to production cuts, shutdowns, or even market exits.
4、 Future prospects
From a business perspective, the market is expected to maintain a strong operating pattern in the short term, but in the long run, it is important to be vigilant about the potential risks of price corrections.
From the perspective of price support factors, international crude oil and phenol ketone prices are expected to maintain high levels in the short term, which will continue to provide rigid cost support for bisphenol A; At the same time, some domestic bisphenol A production facilities in the second quarter are planned to enter a maintenance cycle, which is expected to reduce market supply by about 50000 tons. The tight supply situation is difficult to alleviate in the short term; In addition, the traditional peak consumption season of “gold three silver four” is still ongoing, and downstream industries’ essential procurement will maintain a certain scale. These factors together support the high price of bisphenol A.
From the perspective of potential risk factors, the current price of bisphenol A is already at a high level, and there is still uncertainty about whether downstream demand can continue to follow up in the future. If downstream enterprises choose to reduce production and load due to continued cost pressure, it will directly lead to a contraction in market demand and trigger price adjustments; In addition, if the easing of international geopolitical conflicts leads to a decline in crude oil prices, loosening of phenol and ketone prices, or the gradual release of new domestic production capacity for bisphenol A, it will significantly suppress the price of bisphenol A and increase the possibility of price correction.
Overall, in the short term, the bisphenol A market will mainly experience high-level fluctuations, and the price volatility is expected to gradually narrow; In the long run, with the gradual adjustment of industry supply and demand patterns and the rational return of market sentiment, prices are expected to gradually return to a reasonable range. In this context, it is recommended to view the current market situation rationally, control inventory reasonably, do a good job in risk management, and smoothly navigate through this round of raw material price fluctuations.

In the first week after the holiday (2.24-28), the domestic liquid ammonia market mainly adjusted within the range. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 0.7%. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2000-2300 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, the supply has maintained a stable and increasing trend this week. Ammonia companies have gradually resumed production during pre holiday maintenance, and the production of liquid ammonia in Shandong, Hebei, and Henan regions has not decreased. Enterprises mainly offer discounts for shipments, but prices are close to the cost line, and ammonia companies also have the willingness to raise prices. Many ammonia companies have switched to production to reduce losses, and their price performance is weak. Most manufacturers in Shandong region have little price change after the holiday, and enterprises are mainly active in shipping.
On the demand side, during the slow recovery of downstream demand, downstream enterprises gradually started production after the holiday, but most of them purchased on demand and did not purchase in large quantities. The operating rates of urea, monoammonium phosphate, and diammonium phosphate have also increased, but the performance of compound fertilizers is poor. Overall, domestic industrial demand is weak, while agricultural demand is mainly driven by on-demand procurement and sporadic restocking. The improvement in demand is not significant, and the market’s wait-and-see attitude still dominates.
Market forecast:
Business analysts believe that overall, the domestic liquid ammonia market supply and demand may continue to compete in March. While the increase in operating rates brings about an increase in supply, demand will also slowly rise.
The expected performance of the supply side has increased, and the faulty ammonia companies still have expectations of resuming work. But the demand side support is expected to continue to strengthen. On the one hand, the traditional peak season for agricultural demand is approaching, and there is an increasing trend in agricultural demand. On the other hand, industrial demand will also increase with downstream resumption of work after the holiday, jointly promoting a positive market supply and demand atmosphere.
Overall, considering that the current price of liquid ammonia has hit rock bottom and there is a demand for repair in the market, driven by marginal improvement in supply and demand, it is expected that there may be room for domestic liquid ammonia prices to rise in March.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market price of isopropanol fell in February. On February 1st, the average price of isopropanol in China was 5733.33 yuan/ton, and on February 27th, the average price was 5625 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.89% compared to the beginning of the month.
The market price of isopropanol fell in February. In the first half of the year, the market price of isopropanol first rose and then fell, and the terminal demand was weak, mainly based on demand. Mid month is during the Spring Festival holiday, and the market is stable. The domestic isopropanol market maintained range fluctuations in the latter half of the year. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 5500-5700 yuan/ton; The majority of prices in the isopropanol market in Jiangsu region are around 5600-5900 yuan/ton.
In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market price decreased in February. On February 1st, the average price of acetone was 4812.5 yuan/ton, and on February 27th, the average price was 4625 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 3.9%. At present, the acetone market is mainly oscillating within a certain range in the short term, and the market is mostly wait-and-see.
In terms of raw material propylene, the domestic propylene market price increased in February. On February 1st, the market average was 6404.33 yuan/ton, and on February 27th, the average price was 6467.67 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 0.99%. At present, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and market prices are stable with weak consolidation.
3、 Future forecast
The isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyi Society believes that the isopropanol market price fell in February. At present, the mentality of cargo holders is still acceptable, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. It is expected that the isopropanol market will maintain stable operation in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the trend of the raw material market.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the reference average price of domestic phosphoric acid on February 6th was 6900 yuan/ton, and on February 1st, the reference average price of domestic phosphoric acid was 6890 yuan/ton. The domestic phosphoric acid price has risen by 0.15% this month.
2、 Market analysis
market conditions
The domestic phosphoric acid market price has slightly increased this month. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has risen, and cost support has increased. The supply and demand of the phosphoric acid market are balanced, and market trading is stable. As of February 6th, the factory price of 85% industrial phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6800-7000 yuan/ton, in Sichuan region it is around 6750-7000 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan region it is around 6700-7000 yuan/ton.
Raw material market
Raw material yellow phosphorus market. The yellow phosphorus market has seen a slight increase this month. The current supply-demand game in the yellow phosphorus market. The manufacturer’s quotation is firm and there is no pressure on shipment. Before the downstream holiday, replenish as needed, search for more bottom purchases, and increase new orders in the yellow phosphorus market.
3、 Future forecast
The phosphate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent trend of the phosphate market is stable and upward. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus is firm, and there is support on the cost side. The demand for pre holiday stock of phosphoric acid is still present. It is expected that the short-term domestic phosphoric acid market will be dominated by strong consolidation and operation.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda has been weak this month, with an average market price of 1190 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and around 1187.5 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.21% and a year-on-year decrease of 24.3%. On January 29th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 78.65, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 66.65% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 0.64% from the lowest point of 78.15 points on January 15, 2026. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is running weakly, with a factory price of 1080-1200 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1150-1250 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of soda ash remained weak in December. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1208 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.36% and a decrease of 19.14% compared to the same period last year.
According to analysts from Business Society, the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times. The overall performance of the upstream raw material soda ash was weak in January, and there were narrow fluctuations in some devices on the supply side of the baking soda market. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, with generally positive demand and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that baking soda prices will mainly fluctuate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mixed xylene market has been on the rise this week. From January 1 to January 15, 2026, the mixed xylene market increased from 5510 yuan/ton to 5720 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.81%. This cycle’s transactions are mainly driven by rigid demand, with strong support from the cost side in the early stage and cautious operation in the later stage due to the pullback of crude oil and downstream price chasing, resulting in a slight market correction and high pressure characteristics.

Cost wise: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 15th, the settlement price of the March WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $59.08 per barrel, and the settlement price of the March Brent crude oil futures contract was $63.76 per barrel. The international crude oil prices have shown a wide range of fluctuations in this cycle, with a “continuous rise at first and a significant correction at the end of the month”, and there are stage differences in the cost support for the toluene market. In the early stage, international crude oil futures achieved five consecutive increases, with WTI crude oil surging above $60 per barrel and Brent crude oil rising simultaneously, with prices reaching highs in nearly two months, creating a strong atmosphere for the commodity market and directly driving up the prices of toluene and upstream and downstream aromatic hydrocarbon products. Domestic crude oil futures also strengthened synchronously, rising continuously from January 9th to January 13th. The closing price on January 13th reached 445.6 yuan/barrel, up 29.4 yuan/barrel from the low point on January 8th, with significant cost support. But on January 15th, international oil prices experienced a sharp decline, and the geopolitical premium quickly dissipated. Affected by factors such as the easing of relations between Venezuela and the United States, the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, and the decline in OPEC+production reduction execution rate, WTI crude oil fell 3.31% in a single day, reporting $59.83 per barrel; Brent crude oil fell 3.49% to $64.19 per barrel, marking the largest daily decline since November 2025. The short-term sharp decline in oil prices has weakened the cost side support for toluene, coupled with increased market expectations for subsequent oil price fluctuations, which has suppressed the upward momentum in the toluene market and weakened the driving force for continued growth.
Supply side:
The overall supply of mixed xylene in China is tight this cycle, and there are significant differences in delivery and enterprise price adjustments in various regions, supporting the market’s upward trend in the early stage. From a regional perspective, the Shandong region has the most prominent increase, with weak early shipments and concentrated downstream customers entering the market for purchases during the week. The daily production and sales performance is strong, and factories maintain low inventory operations. Coupled with the driving force of crude oil and the East China market, the focus of negotiations has shifted upwards, and the price difference between Shandong and the East China region continues to narrow. The market negotiation in East China followed the trend of crude oil and related product futures to rise first and then to adjust. The decline in the number of ships arriving at the port in the reservoir area within the region led to a tight spot. The cargo holders had a strong willingness to support the price. Later, there was a slight decline with the crude oil callback. Prices in the South China region first rose and then weakened. In the early stage, there were no shipments arriving in Hong Kong, and the main business was listed for price adjustment, which drove the market to strengthen. Later, due to weak demand, prices slightly rebounded, and the trading atmosphere was average. Sinopec and other major refineries dominate the market pace by adjusting prices, and the relatively limited amount of spot sales further strengthens the market’s bullish sentiment.

Sinopec’s xylene quotation summary shows that the company is currently operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of January 15th, East China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5400-5550 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5900 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5400-5600 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PX price of Sinopec Sales Company is uniformly implemented at 9300 yuan/ton in East China, North China, and South China regions. The main units of Rongsheng Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical are operating stably, and production and sales are smooth. As of January 15th, the closing prices of PX markets in Asia were $980-982/ton FOB Korea and $1005-1007/ton CFR China, up 2.17% and 2.33% respectively from January 1st, indicating a significant upward trend in both domestic and foreign prices.
Market forecast: Supply side, domestic installation load remains stable, there are currently no new parking enterprises, there is no obvious expectation of contraction in the market supply side, and supply and demand are basically stable; On the demand side, there is a weakening expectation in the PX market, which weakens the support for mixed xylene prices. Gasoline consumption continues to slow down, and there is little incremental cost for terminal demand. Geopolitical easing combined with expectations of oversupply has led to bearish expectations in crude oil futures and weakened cost support. Overall, the bearish outlook on crude oil and weak downstream expectations, coupled with insufficient demand, are expected to result in a weak overall performance of the domestic mixed xylene market next week, with insufficient upward momentum and limited support for the market.