According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from June 30th to July 4th (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port quotations fell from 2805 yuan/ton to around 2474 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 11.79% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 7.90%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.59%. With the weakening of macro impact and the completion of delivery in mainstream port methanol markets, the domestic methanol market has rapidly declined.

As of the close on July 4th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2509, opened at 2415 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2432 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2396 yuan/ton. It closed at 2399 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 9% or 0.37% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 704431 lots, the position is 694763, and the daily increase is -12229.
On the cost side, coal prices are fluctuating at a low level, with limited upward demand and weakened cost support. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
On the demand side, glacial acetic acid: The market price of glacial acetic acid continues to decline in some areas. Formaldehyde: Horizontal consolidation of formaldehyde market. Dimethyl ether: The dimethyl ether market is consolidating horizontally. Most downstream products have little fluctuation in methanol demand, and the impact on methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, the overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close on July 3rd, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $344.50-345.50 per ton, a decrease of $5 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 86.00-87.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 254.50-255.50 euros/ton, down 4 euros/ton.
Forecast for the future: With multiple sets of equipment undergoing maintenance in China, methanol prices are unlikely to fall. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly consolidate.