In the first half of June, the industrial grade dimethyl carbonate market showed an overall pattern of low and narrow fluctuations, with a slight and moderate upward trend, without significant fluctuations. As of June 12th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 3750 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.35% from the beginning of the month.

fundamental analysis
Cost aspect: Dual raw materials support the bottom, leading the market to stabilize first and then rise
The centralized maintenance of the equipment led to a 3.10% increase in epoxy propane, while the elasticity of methanol’s increase was much greater than that of epoxy propane. The highest increase in the middle of the month was close to 9%, and after a temporary surge, it slightly fell back, but overall it maintained a significant increase; The synchronous and significant upward movement of the two major raw materials has formed a dual bottom support on the cost side, which is the core bullish factor for the rebound of dimethyl carbonate this month; However, downstream absorption is insufficient, and the price increase of dimethyl carbonate is significantly weaker than that of raw materials, resulting in only a slight narrowing of industry losses.
Supply side: Local tightness, slight decline in production
Some small and medium-sized devices have reduced their load and undergone short-term shutdown maintenance, resulting in a slight decrease in the industry average operating rate; Several medium-sized facilities in the main production area of Shandong take turns for maintenance, resulting in a contraction of regional spot circulation and some traders being reluctant to sell and raise prices; Large integrated chemical plants maintain full production, with only a temporary contraction in overall supply and no sustained logic of significant production cuts. The factory has medium inventory, and the manufacturer mainly arranges inventory according to demand, without high accumulation pressure.
Demand side: Strong demand support, insufficient increment, no centralized replenishment
The production capacity utilization rate of polycarbonate PC industry remains high, but the growth of orders for terminal home appliances and automotive lightweighting has slowed down. The procurement strategy of enterprises is extremely cautious, and they buy in small quantities at low prices. The willingness to purchase in bulk is weak, which has limited impact on the driving force of dimethyl carbonate. In terms of traditional solvents for coatings, adhesives, and pesticides, the demand for environmentally friendly alternatives remains stable without seasonal outbreaks; The off-season characteristics of traditional chemical industry are evident, with stable downstream production and only providing basic and essential support, without incremental elasticity.
Market forecast:
The cost of raw materials such as epichlorohydrin and methanol remains high, and it is difficult to restart the maintenance equipment in the short term, resulting in high prices from manufacturers; Downstream demand follows up on dips and inventory continues to be moderately reduced; However, there is no centralized replenishment in the downstream, and the overall demand increment is limited. The pattern of overcapacity in the entire industry has not been reversed; High level trading is weak, and gains are prone to quickly sell back; Short term low volatility of dimethyl carbonate is expected to be slightly stronger, making it difficult to see a trend of significant increase