From July 10th to 17th (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port quotations rose from 2613 yuan/ton and then fell to around 2638 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.96% during the period, a month on month decrease of 12.40%, and a year-on-year increase of 10.31%. Affected by weather factors, the inventory of methanol in ports continues to decline, coupled with the re fermentation of macro sentiment affecting the mentality of the methanol market, resulting in a strong trend in methanol prices along the coast.

As of the close on July 17th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2609, opened at 2645 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2662 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2613 yuan/ton. It closed at 2630 yuan/ton at the end of the trading day, a decrease of 5% or 0.19% compared to the previous trading day’s settlement. Transaction volume 846093, open position 654879, daily increase position -10255.
On the cost side, coal prices are running relatively strong, supply is relatively stable, overall demand is still weak, and the boost to methanol is average. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, from the downstream perspective, although olefins have undergone maintenance, they have overall rebounded, while traditional downstream production has declined. The main production areas have seen an increase in olefin extraction, and the pace of delivery has remained stable. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards favorable factors.
On the supply side, the loss of equipment exceeds the recovery amount, resulting in a decrease in production and a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on July 16th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $420-422 per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 130-132 cents per gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 409-411 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, methanol spot supply is still sufficient. Currently, downstream maintenance companies in mainland China are resuming work one after another, and demand is gradually increasing, driving a lively trading atmosphere in the market. In addition, freight prices have risen. Overall, analysts predict that the domestic methanol spot market may consolidate at a high level.