In September, the domestic MIBK market experienced a strong upward trend, with prices soaring significantly and reaching a temporary high. However, the market’s upward trend at the end of the month was weak, with prices slightly falling. The supply-demand pattern and cost support weakened synchronously, and the overall industry expectations turned. The market is likely to experience a pullback trend in the future, presenting an overall market characteristic of “significant increase within the month, loosening at the end of the month, and subsequent decline”.
From the monthly price trend, the MIBK market has seen a significant increase this month. At the beginning of September, the average price of MIBK in the domestic market was only around 10300 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, the market started to rise and the market continued to strengthen. As of September 29th, the reference price of MIBK in the domestic market has fallen back to 13566.67 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 31.72% for the whole month. The mainstream market negotiation price in East China remains in the range of 13300-13500 yuan/ton for self extraction of clean water including tax, and the high price transactions in the market are weak, with obvious signs of loosening.
The MIBK market saw a significant increase in September, driven by three main factors: supply contraction, peak season demand boost, and rising market sentiment. On the supply side, due to the maintenance and low operating load of domestic MIBK facilities in the early stage, the market spot circulation remained tight, and the tight supply pattern lasted from the first half to the middle of the month. Traders had a strong mentality of being reluctant to sell and raising prices, which drove prices to continue to rise. At the same time, the traditional peak season of “Golden Nine” in the chemical industry is approaching, and the operating rates of downstream end industries such as coatings, inks, adhesives, etc. are steadily recovering. The demand for replenishment of essential needs is concentrated, effectively driving the increase in transaction activity in the MIBK market and providing solid demand support for price increases.
As we enter late September, the favorable factors supporting the upward trend of the market gradually fade away, the turning point of the market appears, and the downward pressure continues to accumulate. On the cost side, the upstream acetone market prices continue to weaken, and the overall market is under pressure. The cost support for MIBK continues to weaken, and the industry’s profit margin has been restored. The driving force for manufacturers to raise prices has also weakened, and some companies have started to give up profits and sell goods in order to recoup funds, leading to a slight shift in the focus of market negotiations. On the demand side, downstream terminal industries have basically completed the replenishment of essential needs. Under high prices, terminal procurement tends to be cautious, mainly focusing on purchasing in small quantities according to demand. The market transaction atmosphere is gradually light, and the high price acceptance is insufficient, making it difficult to support the sustained high market trend.
The pressure on the supply side has gradually rebounded. With the resumption of production of maintenance equipment in the early stage, the operating load of the domestic MIBK market has steadily increased, and the spot circulation has gradually increased. The tight supply pattern in the early stage has been effectively alleviated, and the market supply and demand pattern has gradually shifted from tight balance to loose. At the same time, after the price rose rapidly in the month, the market speculation gradually cooled, speculative replenishment demand exited, the market returned to the dominant fundamentals, and the high foam gradually cleared.

Overall, the MIBK market saw a significant upward trend in September due to peak season demand and supply contraction. However, at the end of the month, all the positive fundamentals dissipated, and negative factors such as weak cost support, insufficient demand follow-up, and steady supply recovery were concentrated. It is expected that the domestic MIBK market will continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term, and enter a pullback channel as a whole. Prices are likely to steadily fall, and the space for high-level decline is gradually opening up. In the future, it is necessary to focus on the fluctuations in upstream raw material prices, changes in domestic plant operation, and the sustainability of downstream terminal demand during peak seasons, in order to grasp the pace and magnitude of market corrections.