1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic PVC spot market continued its downward trend from the previous month in May, with a brief rebound in the mid month market and a return to the downward channel in the late month. As of May 30th, the average price of PVC in China was 4597 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.75% for the whole month.
2、 Market analysis
In the first half of this month, the PVC spot market continued its downward trend from the previous month. In the middle of the month, due to favorable macroeconomic policy expectations, futures market prices began to rebound, and spot prices followed suit, but the rebound was only short-lived. In the second half of the month, the market once again fell into a downturn, and the downward trend continued until the end of the month.
Specifically, on the one hand, due to the weak performance of upstream crude oil and ethylene, coupled with the suppression of the futures market, the overall volatility and decline of the spot PVC market are the main factors. On the other hand, there is a certain pressure on supply and demand, and the spot market has not yet escaped the downward channel. On the supply and demand side, the operating rate remains high, production continues to increase, and there is a slight oversupply. At present, there is no signal of bottoming out and stabilizing in the market. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of May 30th, the mainstream price range of PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4650-4720 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, the price of calcium carbide has continued to decline since May. According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of calcium carbide has dropped by 2.44% since May. Overall, calcium carbide lacks positive guidance and has limited support. With the weak performance of downstream PVC market, the price of calcium carbide may not stabilize and improve in the near future.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the supply and demand of PVC will continue to remain weak in the short term, mainly due to the sustained high operating rates of manufacturers and the high inventory levels of both enterprises and the market. In addition, after some maintenance is completed, production continues to rebound, and the summer season is approaching the rainy season, which may have a certain impact on seasonal demand. There is also an impact of policy uncertainty in the medium and long term. The PVC pressure is still relatively high in the later stage. It is expected that PVC prices will remain weak in the short term.