According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mixed xylene market has been on the rise this week. From January 1 to January 15, 2026, the mixed xylene market increased from 5510 yuan/ton to 5720 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.81%. This cycle’s transactions are mainly driven by rigid demand, with strong support from the cost side in the early stage and cautious operation in the later stage due to the pullback of crude oil and downstream price chasing, resulting in a slight market correction and high pressure characteristics.

Cost wise: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 15th, the settlement price of the March WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $59.08 per barrel, and the settlement price of the March Brent crude oil futures contract was $63.76 per barrel. The international crude oil prices have shown a wide range of fluctuations in this cycle, with a “continuous rise at first and a significant correction at the end of the month”, and there are stage differences in the cost support for the toluene market. In the early stage, international crude oil futures achieved five consecutive increases, with WTI crude oil surging above $60 per barrel and Brent crude oil rising simultaneously, with prices reaching highs in nearly two months, creating a strong atmosphere for the commodity market and directly driving up the prices of toluene and upstream and downstream aromatic hydrocarbon products. Domestic crude oil futures also strengthened synchronously, rising continuously from January 9th to January 13th. The closing price on January 13th reached 445.6 yuan/barrel, up 29.4 yuan/barrel from the low point on January 8th, with significant cost support. But on January 15th, international oil prices experienced a sharp decline, and the geopolitical premium quickly dissipated. Affected by factors such as the easing of relations between Venezuela and the United States, the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, and the decline in OPEC+production reduction execution rate, WTI crude oil fell 3.31% in a single day, reporting $59.83 per barrel; Brent crude oil fell 3.49% to $64.19 per barrel, marking the largest daily decline since November 2025. The short-term sharp decline in oil prices has weakened the cost side support for toluene, coupled with increased market expectations for subsequent oil price fluctuations, which has suppressed the upward momentum in the toluene market and weakened the driving force for continued growth.
Supply side:
The overall supply of mixed xylene in China is tight this cycle, and there are significant differences in delivery and enterprise price adjustments in various regions, supporting the market’s upward trend in the early stage. From a regional perspective, the Shandong region has the most prominent increase, with weak early shipments and concentrated downstream customers entering the market for purchases during the week. The daily production and sales performance is strong, and factories maintain low inventory operations. Coupled with the driving force of crude oil and the East China market, the focus of negotiations has shifted upwards, and the price difference between Shandong and the East China region continues to narrow. The market negotiation in East China followed the trend of crude oil and related product futures to rise first and then to adjust. The decline in the number of ships arriving at the port in the reservoir area within the region led to a tight spot. The cargo holders had a strong willingness to support the price. Later, there was a slight decline with the crude oil callback. Prices in the South China region first rose and then weakened. In the early stage, there were no shipments arriving in Hong Kong, and the main business was listed for price adjustment, which drove the market to strengthen. Later, due to weak demand, prices slightly rebounded, and the trading atmosphere was average. Sinopec and other major refineries dominate the market pace by adjusting prices, and the relatively limited amount of spot sales further strengthens the market’s bullish sentiment.

Sinopec’s xylene quotation summary shows that the company is currently operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of January 15th, East China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5400-5550 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5900 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5400-5600 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PX price of Sinopec Sales Company is uniformly implemented at 9300 yuan/ton in East China, North China, and South China regions. The main units of Rongsheng Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical are operating stably, and production and sales are smooth. As of January 15th, the closing prices of PX markets in Asia were $980-982/ton FOB Korea and $1005-1007/ton CFR China, up 2.17% and 2.33% respectively from January 1st, indicating a significant upward trend in both domestic and foreign prices.
Market forecast: Supply side, domestic installation load remains stable, there are currently no new parking enterprises, there is no obvious expectation of contraction in the market supply side, and supply and demand are basically stable; On the demand side, there is a weakening expectation in the PX market, which weakens the support for mixed xylene prices. Gasoline consumption continues to slow down, and there is little incremental cost for terminal demand. Geopolitical easing combined with expectations of oversupply has led to bearish expectations in crude oil futures and weakened cost support. Overall, the bearish outlook on crude oil and weak downstream expectations, coupled with insufficient demand, are expected to result in a weak overall performance of the domestic mixed xylene market next week, with insufficient upward momentum and limited support for the market.