Price Trend

In August 2019, the domestic 1_tin ingot Market shocked down. The average price of the domestic market was 13587.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 132,000 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 2.86%.

On August 31, the tin commodity index was 67.24, which was the same as yesterday. It was 32.93% lower than the cyclical peak of 100.25 points (2011-09-05), and 56.88% higher than the lowest point of 42.86 on December 09, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Domestic market: International trade frictions continue to bear the market. Affected by them, Lunci continued its slump this month, falling 8.8% in March 31, and Lunci prices have fallen to their lowest level since May 2016. As a result, Shanghai Tin futures continued to fall this month. On August 19, the price fell to 132,000 yuan. At the end of the month, the price further dropped to a low of 1277 million yuan. On June 30, Shanghai Tin futures closed at 129,480 yuan/ton. Futures market dragged the spot market down by 2.86% this month. At the end of the month, the main transaction price in the spot market is 13100-133000 yuan/ton. For the Shanghai Tin 2001 contract, the price is 2400 yuan/ton for Supanyun Tin, 2200 yuan/ton for ordinary Yunzi Tin and 2000 yuan/ton for small brand Tin.

Import and Export: Jakarta, August 5, news, Indonesia’s Ministry of Trade news, Indonesia’s refined tin exports in July 2019 decreased 33% year-on-year to 4,397.40 tons. Indonesia exported 6,575.80 tons of refined tin in the same period last year. On a year-on-year basis, exports in July were 42% lower than in June. Indonesia is currently the world’s largest exporter of refined tin.

According to data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) on August 21, the global tin supply gap in January-June 2019 was 0.42 million tons. The total reported inventory was 9.1 million tons higher than at the end of 2018, but this included an unexplained increase of 60,000 tons in Indonesia. Global refined tin production increased by 20,000 tons compared with January-June 2018. Asia’s output decreased by 0.08 million tons year on year. Apparent demand in China increased by 5.5% year on year. Global tin demand in January-June 2019 was 185,800 tons, an increase of 1.6% over the same period last year. Japan’s consumption was 13.9 million tons, down 6.4% from the same period last year. In June 2019, the output of refined tin was 33.8 million tons and the consumption was 34.1 million tons.

Data released by the Beijing Branch of the International Tin Association (ITA) show that China’s refined tin production in the first half of 2019 decreased by about 10% from a year earlier to about 75,000 tons. ITA’s survey of 15 refineries in China showed that the output of tin refining in June was about 12,500 tons, a 9% decrease in ring-to-ring ratio and the same ratio. China is the leading tin producer. Cui Lin, ITA’s chief representative for China, said that the decline in tin refining production was due to the reduced supply of tin concentrates in Myanmar and weak demand in China. Tin futures prices in Shanghai have fallen by nearly 8% since the beginning of the year, to about 134,000 yuan per ton. Cui said prices below $140,000 would affect production because of the high cost of ore supply in Myanmar.

Domestic events:

Timah, Indonesia, expects to sell 60,000 tons of tin in 2019: Jakarta, Aug. 27, said Emil Ermindra, finance director of PT Timah, Indonesia’s state-owned tin miner, on Tuesday that the company expects to sell about 60,000 tons of refined tin this year. According to company data, this will more than double the 29,914 tons in 2018. Adi Hartadi, vice president of investor relations, said the company sold 31,600 tons of refined tin between January and June, up from about 12,700 tons last year. Timah produced 37,700 tons of refined tin in the first half of the year, tripling from the same period last year. A regulation introduced last year allowed companies to recruit illegal grave miners as contractors within the franchise and obtain production from them, which led to a jump in Timah’s production. Timah expects its output to more than double to about 70,000 tons in 2019, but an official says the company has taken steps to slow production.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Entering September, the market is full of expectations for gold, silver and silver. The US dollar keeps rising and vigilantly declines. The rebound of crude oil also brings confidence to commodities. The surge of nickel transfers the source of confidence for the bulls in the market. The rhythm of basic metals may continue to rise steadily next week. Lunsey’s price is expected to rebound after adjusting for the low volatility in September, but with limited strength. It is expected that the spot tin market will be mainly volatile and slightly higher in September.