Price Trend

This week’s lead market (09.02-09.06) shocks and rises. The average domestic market price is 17131.25 yuan per ton at the beginning of the week and 17381.25 yuan per ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 1.46%.

On September 6, the lead commodity index was 105.78, up 1.29 points from yesterday, down 21.07% from 134.01 points in the cycle (2016-11-29) and 41.74% from 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Trend Analysis

Domestic market: This week’s lead price continued last week’s upward trend, with a cumulative weekly increase of about 200 yuan/ton. The main trading range of spot lead is 17150-17475 yuan/ton. This week, driven by the expectation of refinery overhaul and military parade production restriction, lead prices continue to rise, which stimulates downstream purchasing enthusiasm. However, considering the price advantage, purchasing mostly favors refinery supply. Mainstream quotation of brand lead in Shanghai maintained around 17300-17500 yuan/ton. Brand lead in the market concentrated in Jinsha lead in Shanghai, Henan Yuguang, Wanyang, Minshan, Guangdong Nanhua lead and so on. Because of the high price of lead, downstream delivery was more cautious, the market was mostly long single transaction, and bulk single transaction was less.

Domestic events:

The global lead-acid battery market will reach 52.5 billion US dollars by 2024: According to the latest report released by Markets and Markets, the global lead-acid battery market will reach 52.5 billion US dollars by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.7%. Increased demand for grid-connected renewable energy and expansion of data centers are contributing to the steady growth of the lead-acid battery market.

U.S. lead imports fell in July: Washington, Sept. 4, according to figures released Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Commerce, imports of Unforged refined lead in July were 25,733,471 kg, down from 33,903,190 kg in June, and from January to July this year totaled 238,382,765 kg. The United States exported 608,719 kg of Unforged refined lead in July, much higher than 258,172 kg in June and 9,605,967 kg in January-July.

Non-ferrous Industries: This week, the Premier of the State Council chaired a national regular meeting, demanding timely use of policy tools such as general and directional reduction to increase support for the real economy; China and the United States agreed to hold the thirteenth round of high-level Sino-US economic and trade consultation in Washington in early October, and the resumption of Sino-US negotiations had a pessimistic macro-sentiment towards the earlier stage. The final value of PMI in U.S. manufacturing industry returned to the 50-integer level in August and was better than expected, but it was still the lowest level since September 2009. In August, ADP employment and ISM non-manufacturing PMI in the United States were higher than expected, and the overall data was warmer. In August, the manufacturing PMI of the euro zone and France were higher than expected, while the Italian manufacturing PMI was below the 50-year-old level for 11 consecutive months. Overall, this week’s macro news is optimistic, overall sentiment has warmed up, the dollar index has fallen high, and this week’s rally in basic metals has rebounded sharply.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Next week, the market may usher in more long-term confidence in entering the market, and next week, due to the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, there are only four trading days, basic metals will be easy to rise and difficult to fall, showing a common strong feature. Lead prices are expected to remain high next week.