Narrow volatility of ethanol market prices in China (9.2-9.6)

Price Trend

This week, the domestic ethanol market has a narrow fluctuation. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of domestic ethanol market was 5380 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 5420 yuan/ton at the end of the week. Within the week, the price of domestic ethanol market rose by 0.74%, and the price was 0.74% higher than that of the same period last year. The price of domestic ethanol market fell by 1.89% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

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Products: Alcohol began to rise in some areas this week, only in Henan Province after the price of small factories fell. Northeast enterprise equipment gradually opened, Heilongjiang Nehe plant recently put in materials, although the supply side of enterprises has rebounded, but the enterprise inventory is not high, affected by the high level in some areas, the willingness of enterprises to pull up is obvious, the quotation of large factories has been pulled up, and the market transaction price has risen sharply; Henan small factory price has been pulled up earlier this week, but later small. After the factory pulled up, the shipment situation was blocked, and the price fell on Thursday. Shandong floated spring plant reduced production, and the supply side was good. The price of East China rose slightly, but at present, the construction situation of East China enterprises was not much. The downstream part digested the inventory of Northeast China, the ethyl acetate factory had not started to purchase, the raw material price remained high, and the market price was firm. Southern cassava alcohol enterprises are supported by good supply side and high price is sorted out; molasses alcohol is produced by only one enterprise, supported by good supply side, and the market transaction price has risen sharply; there is no spot of cassava alcohol in Guangdong, and there is a shortage of high-grade alcohol, and only the supply of Xintiande and Ante in Guangxi, Xintiande’s high-grade alcohol is mostly available. In Guangxi, Ante’s price is higher than the market. In Zhanjiang area, the supply side is less, the price remains stable. In anhydrous area, Jinyuan and Xintiande supply this week, and in the case of non-arrival of foreign goods, the price is stable.

Industry chain: Upstream, corn: Due to last week’s fall in corn prices, traders are cautious about shipments, deep processing enterprises to reduce the volume of goods, some deep processing enterprises in North China to buy prices have rebounded. Demand in the lower reaches of Northeast China is weak, and under the pressure of spring maize listing in North China, traders are more active in delivering goods, the quantity of deep processing enterprises has increased, and the purchase price of some manufacturers has decreased. The auction of temporary storage maize has been changed from 4 million tons to 3.5 million tons, with a reduction of 500,000 tons. Although the reduction is not much, it is also a beneficial influence from the loose supply-demand relationship of maize nowadays. Market sentiment has dropped to a low point, and it is expected that the turnover rate will continue to operate at a low level.

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As for downstream ethyl acetate, the high end of raw material acetic acid has fallen, but the mainstream transaction is still high, and the cost pressure of ethyl acetate supplier is high. The lower end of the terminal is in conflict with the high price of ethyl acetate, and the purchase and sale of small orders is the main cause of the continuous low volatility of its own profits. Short-term raw material acetic acid is still strong, ethyl acetate supply side stock is limited, downstream purchasing just needs, maintain smooth market transactions. Ethyl acetate profits are expected to remain at a loss next week.

3. Future Market Forecast

Northeast China’s raw material prices are weak, cost is short, enterprise equipment is stable, large factories carry out more contract orders, downstream procurement is just needed, National Day is approaching, it is expected that there will be restrictions in the latter period, enterprise shipment difficulties, it is expected that the short-term market will remain in order; Henan security inspection adheres to, enterprises. Unit shutdown, start-up time is not yet determined, from the demand point of view, there is no mass purchasing situation; East China raw materials remain high, prices rise, downstream consumption of Northeast supply, local shipment situation is general, short-term market is expected to be weak finishing; South China molasses alcohol enterprises are expected to drive next week, supply side There will be a rebound. Under this influence, it is expected that molasses and alcohol will be disadvantaged, cassava supply is not high, and it is expected to remain stable in the short term. Ethanol analysts at business associations expect the domestic ethanol market to remain stable and small next week

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