Price Trend

This week’s lead market (09.02-09.06) shocks and rises. The average domestic market price is 17131.25 yuan per ton at the beginning of the week and 17381.25 yuan per ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 1.46%.

On September 6, the lead commodity index was 105.78, up 1.29 points from yesterday, down 21.07% from 134.01 points in the cycle (2016-11-29) and 41.74% from 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Trend Analysis

Domestic market: This week’s lead price continued last week’s upward trend, with a cumulative weekly increase of about 200 yuan/ton. The main trading range of spot lead is 17150-17475 yuan/ton. This week, driven by the expectation of refinery overhaul and military parade production restriction, lead prices continue to rise, which stimulates downstream purchasing enthusiasm. However, considering the price advantage, purchasing mostly favors refinery supply. Mainstream quotation of brand lead in Shanghai maintained around 17300-17500 yuan/ton. Brand lead in the market concentrated in Jinsha lead in Shanghai, Henan Yuguang, Wanyang, Minshan, Guangdong Nanhua lead and so on. Because of the high price of lead, downstream delivery was more cautious, the market was mostly long single transaction, and bulk single transaction was less.

Domestic events:

The global lead-acid battery market will reach 52.5 billion US dollars by 2024: According to the latest report released by Markets and Markets, the global lead-acid battery market will reach 52.5 billion US dollars by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.7%. Increased demand for grid-connected renewable energy and expansion of data centers are contributing to the steady growth of the lead-acid battery market.

U.S. lead imports fell in July: Washington, Sept. 4, according to figures released Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Commerce, imports of Unforged refined lead in July were 25,733,471 kg, down from 33,903,190 kg in June, and from January to July this year totaled 238,382,765 kg. The United States exported 608,719 kg of Unforged refined lead in July, much higher than 258,172 kg in June and 9,605,967 kg in January-July.

Non-ferrous Industries: This week, the Premier of the State Council chaired a national regular meeting, demanding timely use of policy tools such as general and directional reduction to increase support for the real economy; China and the United States agreed to hold the thirteenth round of high-level Sino-US economic and trade consultation in Washington in early October, and the resumption of Sino-US negotiations had a pessimistic macro-sentiment towards the earlier stage. The final value of PMI in U.S. manufacturing industry returned to the 50-integer level in August and was better than expected, but it was still the lowest level since September 2009. In August, ADP employment and ISM non-manufacturing PMI in the United States were higher than expected, and the overall data was warmer. In August, the manufacturing PMI of the euro zone and France were higher than expected, while the Italian manufacturing PMI was below the 50-year-old level for 11 consecutive months. Overall, this week’s macro news is optimistic, overall sentiment has warmed up, the dollar index has fallen high, and this week’s rally in basic metals has rebounded sharply.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Next week, the market may usher in more long-term confidence in entering the market, and next week, due to the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, there are only four trading days, basic metals will be easy to rise and difficult to fall, showing a common strong feature. Lead prices are expected to remain high next week.

Price Trend

In August 2019, the domestic 1_tin ingot Market shocked down. The average price of the domestic market was 13587.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 132,000 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 2.86%.

On August 31, the tin commodity index was 67.24, which was the same as yesterday. It was 32.93% lower than the cyclical peak of 100.25 points (2011-09-05), and 56.88% higher than the lowest point of 42.86 on December 09, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Domestic market: International trade frictions continue to bear the market. Affected by them, Lunci continued its slump this month, falling 8.8% in March 31, and Lunci prices have fallen to their lowest level since May 2016. As a result, Shanghai Tin futures continued to fall this month. On August 19, the price fell to 132,000 yuan. At the end of the month, the price further dropped to a low of 1277 million yuan. On June 30, Shanghai Tin futures closed at 129,480 yuan/ton. Futures market dragged the spot market down by 2.86% this month. At the end of the month, the main transaction price in the spot market is 13100-133000 yuan/ton. For the Shanghai Tin 2001 contract, the price is 2400 yuan/ton for Supanyun Tin, 2200 yuan/ton for ordinary Yunzi Tin and 2000 yuan/ton for small brand Tin.

Import and Export: Jakarta, August 5, news, Indonesia’s Ministry of Trade news, Indonesia’s refined tin exports in July 2019 decreased 33% year-on-year to 4,397.40 tons. Indonesia exported 6,575.80 tons of refined tin in the same period last year. On a year-on-year basis, exports in July were 42% lower than in June. Indonesia is currently the world’s largest exporter of refined tin.

According to data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) on August 21, the global tin supply gap in January-June 2019 was 0.42 million tons. The total reported inventory was 9.1 million tons higher than at the end of 2018, but this included an unexplained increase of 60,000 tons in Indonesia. Global refined tin production increased by 20,000 tons compared with January-June 2018. Asia’s output decreased by 0.08 million tons year on year. Apparent demand in China increased by 5.5% year on year. Global tin demand in January-June 2019 was 185,800 tons, an increase of 1.6% over the same period last year. Japan’s consumption was 13.9 million tons, down 6.4% from the same period last year. In June 2019, the output of refined tin was 33.8 million tons and the consumption was 34.1 million tons.

Data released by the Beijing Branch of the International Tin Association (ITA) show that China’s refined tin production in the first half of 2019 decreased by about 10% from a year earlier to about 75,000 tons. ITA’s survey of 15 refineries in China showed that the output of tin refining in June was about 12,500 tons, a 9% decrease in ring-to-ring ratio and the same ratio. China is the leading tin producer. Cui Lin, ITA’s chief representative for China, said that the decline in tin refining production was due to the reduced supply of tin concentrates in Myanmar and weak demand in China. Tin futures prices in Shanghai have fallen by nearly 8% since the beginning of the year, to about 134,000 yuan per ton. Cui said prices below $140,000 would affect production because of the high cost of ore supply in Myanmar.

Domestic events:

Timah, Indonesia, expects to sell 60,000 tons of tin in 2019: Jakarta, Aug. 27, said Emil Ermindra, finance director of PT Timah, Indonesia’s state-owned tin miner, on Tuesday that the company expects to sell about 60,000 tons of refined tin this year. According to company data, this will more than double the 29,914 tons in 2018. Adi Hartadi, vice president of investor relations, said the company sold 31,600 tons of refined tin between January and June, up from about 12,700 tons last year. Timah produced 37,700 tons of refined tin in the first half of the year, tripling from the same period last year. A regulation introduced last year allowed companies to recruit illegal grave miners as contractors within the franchise and obtain production from them, which led to a jump in Timah’s production. Timah expects its output to more than double to about 70,000 tons in 2019, but an official says the company has taken steps to slow production.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Entering September, the market is full of expectations for gold, silver and silver. The US dollar keeps rising and vigilantly declines. The rebound of crude oil also brings confidence to commodities. The surge of nickel transfers the source of confidence for the bulls in the market. The rhythm of basic metals may continue to rise steadily next week. Lunsey’s price is expected to rebound after adjusting for the low volatility in September, but with limited strength. It is expected that the spot tin market will be mainly volatile and slightly higher in September.

Price data

Domestic 93 # Gasoline Distribution Average Price Trend Chart

Average Distribution Price Trend Chart of 0# Diesel Oil in China

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the price of refined oil rose and fell in August. At the end of the month, the price of domestic gasoline was 6660 yuan/ton, up 2.24% from 6515 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; at the end of the month, the price of domestic diesel oil was 6544 yuan/ton, down 1.00% from 6610 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: In August, the weather in the whole country was hot, and the demand of domestic refined oil market was good. Although the international crude oil showed a trend of fluctuation and rebound, the domestic gasoline and diesel market showed a good overall performance in August, and the refined oil market showed a trend of rising and falling.

Industry chain: Sino-US trade relations fluctuated in August, and global risky assets plunged. Despite the firm attitude of OPEC and other countries to reduce production and the boost of U.S. crude oil production and inventory, international oil prices showed a general trend of fluctuation and decline. The monthly decline of WTI international crude oil futures price was 4.78%.

On the market side: In August, the hot weather, increased demand for automotive oil, and the expected support of the Mid-Autumn Festival, coupled with the impact of typhoon weather in August, gasoline production is limited, so the overall performance of the gasoline market in August is good. In the aspect of diesel fuel, the main marketing performance in August was not satisfactory, and the terminal demand and speculative demand showed a weak state. In August, the international crude oil market did not perform well, and the diesel market as a whole did not perform as well as gasoline. This month, the diesel market fell slightly by 1.00%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Luxingjun, a product oil analyst at Business Association, believes that the bad news of Sino-US trade war is basically exhausted, and OPEC international will continue to support oil prices. With the support of the Mid-Autumn National Day in September, the demand for gasoline and diesel oil will not decrease, and the price of domestic product oil market is expected to rise in September.

Price Trend

The domestic butadiene market stopped falling this week. Business Association monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price was 9923 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 9990 yuan/ton at the weekend, 0.67% increase in the week, 0.90% maximum amplitude in the week, 16.00% increase in the price cycle, 24.03% decrease year on year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This cycle, the domestic butadiene market reversed upward, Monday a small number of northeastern supply turnover high, boosting the prices of other export manufacturers to keep up with the rise, driving the northern market higher. Just in need of support in the downstream part, the price of northern manufacturers rose to around 9800-10300 yuan/ton on Thursday, but the downstream inquiries for high prices are becoming weak. The scarcity of goods in East China during the week, sporadic inflows of high-priced goods from North China, boosted the high offer, but the downstream inquiry intention was low, and the market was more cautious. However, in the absence of a clear supply of low-priced goods in the market, businessmen are mainly on the sidelines. In terms of price, Shandong’s top-grade products are sent to the offer for reference of 10,300 yuan/ton, up 500-600 yuan/ton annually, while East China’s price is 10,500 yuan/ton, up 200-300 yuan/ton annually.

Installation: Yangtze Petrochemical 220,000 tons/year plant, 3 Fushun Petrochemical 160,000 tons/year plant is in normal operation, and there is no export for the time being. The 100,000-ton/year oxidative dehydrogenation unit in Silbang, Jiangsu, was restarted and contracted for supply.

Industry chain: downstream synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, domestic butadiene-styrene plant start-up load of 5.9% this week: Tianjin Lugang, Hangzhou Yibang and Fuguo chemical butadiene-styrene rubber plant continue to stop; Jilin chemical butadiene-styrene plant two-line operation and production; Zhejiang Weitai first-line operation, Shenhua chemical second-line operation, Lanzhou Petrochemical butadiene-styrene plant Fushun Petrochemical Company maintained low-load operation of the fourth line, Yangtze Petrochemical butadiene-styrene unit operated on the first line and Qilu Petrochemical butadiene-styrene unit operated normally.

Cis-butadiene rubber: This week, the domestic high-cis-butadiene rubber plant started less than 50%, mainly by cost pressure drag, some devices continue to stop, follow-up needs close attention.
3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, the external market is high, domestic manufacturers have no obvious inventory pressure for the time being, and the state-owned synthetic rubber plant runs steadily. On the negative side, the downstream rubber market trend is weak. Fushun Petrochemical Supplementary Supply for Export, the policy impact, the downstream latex industry start-up situation to wait and see. In the downstream of East China’s new output supply contract, there is no spot inflow into the trade link for the time being, and Sinopec’s internal supply is relatively tight, butadiene market performance is relatively strong. Looking at the next cycle, on the one hand, Fushun Petrochemical restart export, northern spot resources have a certain incremental expectation, and the downstream has limited acceptance of the current high price, the spot market is weak, but the market has no obvious low-price supply supplement, the external market and Sinopec high price support, although the downstream market performance is weak, but the supplier information branch. Supported by this, the market has not risen or fallen much. Butadiene analysts from business associations expect that the domestic butadiene market will be consolidated slightly next week. They suggest that we pay attention to the changes in the supply side.

Price Trend

The domestic aggregate MDI market fluctuates narrowly. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the average market price of aggregate MDI was 13200 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, 13150 yuan/ton at the weekend, a 0.38% drop in the week, a 3.54% rise in price and a 29.05% drop in price over the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week aggregate MDI market fluctuations are frequent, are small fluctuations. At the beginning of the week, Coase’s Weekly Guidance Price “nothing new” remained stable, other suppliers’factories kept silent, the holders kept eating, under the influence of mentality and inventory pressure, the market talked about prices at low prices. In the next few days, the market was still “weak” and the downstream demand side was indifferent to the price level. Small orders just needed to negotiate to get goods, and the market supply volume was mostly circulated among middlemen. In the mid-week, in a continuing weak market atmosphere, market prices fell faster, but factories in the north were able to pull out in time, killing the trend of price drops. Market prices have stabilized, but the upward trend is not good enough. On Thursday, businesses were sceptical about the previous boost news, but northern supplier factories continued to work hard to announce the failure of Wanhua Ningbo separator, the continuous reduction of plant load and the impact of later supply. For a time, the holder’s offer increased steadily and slightly, and the importer’s offer failed to report. The atmosphere was slightly active. However, in the downstream worries, the operators still cautiously maintain shipment-oriented trading.

On the market side, as of Friday (8.23), the price of aggregated MDI in North China is stagnant and difficult to rise or fall. Supplier manufacturers are again in the market to the end, the holders are under pressure to deliver goods, after the market mentality is not the same, the market trading atmosphere is not significantly better. The price of aggregated MDI market in South China is deadlocked. North supplier factory boost news temporarily stopped falling, the mindset of different holders, continued to ship under pressure, the atmosphere of market negotiations continues to be light. The converged MDI market in eastern China is rocky and deadlocked. The news of boosting the market temporarily stopped falling, but the future market mentality is not very optimistic. The atmosphere of on-site talks is still light.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: This week, the price of pure benzene rose. The unplanned shutdown and delayed restart of some large-scale installations within the week resulted in a reduction in outflow. While the arbitrage window between the United States and South Korea remains open, domestic import arrivals remain low, the overall market supply is tight, and port inventory continues to decline to about 140,000 tons. At the beginning of the week, Sinopec added 100 yuan/ton to 5200 yuan/ton. Market prices also continued to rise to 5300-5350 yuan/ton.

Aniline: Within a week, the domestic aniline Market rose. In terms of raw materials, pure benzene continued to rise. Sinopec raised its listing price by 100 yuan/ton, the domestic spot supply was not much, the port inventory continued to decline, and the sharp rise in crude benzene led to the rise in hydrobenzene prices, which supported the firm offer of pure benzene holders. This week, the average tender price of pure benzene in Jinling, Shandong Province, increased by 368 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the cost support increased. Huatai restarted on the aniline Market in North China, but due to the lack of shipment of typhoon water in the early stage, some downstream enterprises have low stock of raw materials, active stock, and low inventory of Jinling aniline. Without sales pressure and cost support, prices continue to rise. In the aniline Market in East China, Nanhua mainly prepared three cargo ships in late January. Except for self-use, a small amount of spot was released, and the price rose.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives Viewpoint: The main manufacturers listed several times before the end of the month, then the new listing of manufacturers in September will undoubtedly rise. However, the overall market situation, the increase is not expected to be too large. MDI analysts from business associations expect to aggregate MDI market prices or maintain a steady upward trend next week and watch the attitudes of several supplier factories in Shanghai.

Price trends:

According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate ex-factory price trend is temporarily stable this week. The average weekend price is 1966.67 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the early weekend price of 1966.67 yuan/ton, down 1.67% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis:

Products: This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price remains stable, the domestic ammonium nitrate plant is running smoothly, is in the downstream demand off-season, ammonium nitrate factory shipment market is general, downstream on-demand procurement, coupled with environmental protection control, the downstream civil explosion industry in China has stopped production more, domestic ammonium nitrate factory start-up is limited. Domestic prices remain low. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream in Shaanxi was 190-2050 yuan/ton, Shandong was 1900-2000 yuan/ton, Hebei was 1850-1950 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, some downstream factories were forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate was at a low level, and the market price of ammonium nitrate was maintained. Keep oscillating.

Industry Chain: Domestic nitric acid price declined this week, the market price was 1610 yuan/ton by the end of the week, and this week’s price fell by 4.83%. Domestic nitric acid market price declined. Mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu Province offered 1600 yuan/ton, mainstream manufacturers in Anhui Province offered 1630 yuan/ton, Shandong manufacturers offered 1600-1650 yuan/ton, and nitric acid went away. In general, the lower price of upstream nitric acid market has a negative impact on downstream ammonium nitrate Market price; upstream raw material liquid ammonia price fluctuation, the end of the weekend liquid ammonia market price of 320 yuan/ton, liquid ammonia is affected by upstream costs, and most manufacturers inventory pressure has increased compared with the previous period. Subunits are restarted and local ammonia supply is increased in the region. Especially in Shanxi and North China, the supply of ammonia is sufficient for most manufacturers. The price quoted by manufacturers in North China is maintained in the range of 2900-3400 yuan/ton, while that in Northwest China is in the range of 2500-2600 yuan/ton. The low price of liquid ammonia has a negative impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate market. Recently, the downstream civil explosion industry is in the off-season. The demand for ammonium nitrate market remains low. The inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is high. The market of nitric acid is not good, and the price of nitric acid market remains low.

Industry: In recent years, ammonium nitrate Market is general, downstream civilian explosion industry parks more, coupled with the upstream raw material market nitric acid price decline, ammonium nitrate market price trend is stable.

3. Future market forecast:

Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material nitric acid market prices slightly lower, coupled with poor demand downstream, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to slightly lower later.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, aniline has risen sharply this week, with an overall increase of more than 5%. This week, the market price of aniline in Nanjing increased by 300 yuan/ton, or 5%, compared with last week, while that in Shandong increased by 300 yuan/ton, or 5.26%. At present, the mainstream price in Shandong is 6000 yuan/ton, while that in Nanjing is 6300 yuan/ton.

II. Analytical Review

Raw Material: At the beginning of the week, due to the supply gap of pure benzene in the United States, pure benzene in Korea was sent to the United States for arbitrage. The high price of pure benzene in the U.S. dollar plate supported the rise of domestic pure benzene price. On Thursday, the supply of pure benzene in eastern China was tight. Pure benzene companies in Shandong sent their supplies to Eastern China, and the prices of refined pure benzene in Shandong rose.

Product: This week’s aniline tender price is higher than last week’s. This week’s rise in aniline prices is mainly supported by strong costs, low profits of downstream enterprises, insufficient follow-up to aniline prices, limiting the increase.

III. Future Market Expectations

Raw material: At present, the listed price difference of domestic pure benzene has been reduced greatly, and Sinopec still has the possibility of raising the price. It is expected that some vessels will arrive next week, with an estimated delivery of about 20,000 tons. With the accidental stop of a styrene plant in East China, the tail plate of pure benzene will be slightly weaker next week and the increase will be limited.

It is expected that the price of pure benzene will increase in the later period, but the downstream starting rate of aniline is still not high and the demand for aniline is limited.

It is expected that the trend of aniline stability will be strong in the next week.

Price data

Domestic 93 # Gasoline Distribution Average Price Trend Chart

Average Distribution Price Trend Chart of 0# Diesel Oil in China

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the price of gasoline and diesel oil rose this week, domestic gasoline price was 6753 yuan/ton, 2.42% higher than last week’s gasoline price; domestic diesel price was 6569 yuan/ton, 2.26% higher than last week’s diesel price.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: This week, international crude oil prices showed a sharp rise and then fell again, but the overall trend of slowly warming up. The latest crude oil change rate was – 6.13% as of August 15, according to business association data. The price reduction of refined oil further contracted, and the market of refined oil also rose steadily.

Industry Chain: Because the Sino-US trade situation is not expected to ease, coupled with the continuous increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, international crude oil prices also fell sharply after four consecutive days of rise, but international crude oil is still in an upward trend until 15 days, WTI crude oil prices closed at $59.48 per barrel, a weekly increase of 1.62%.

Market aspect: This week, the international oil price fell sharply again after the surge. The fluctuation range is large, but the overall trend is warming up. In terms of cost support, the price of domestic refined oil market is good. At the beginning of this week, the price of domestic gasoline and diesel oil shows a good upward trend. At the same time, due to typhoon landing in South and East China, transportation and loading links are limited and shipment is suspended, which is the cumulative market demand for midweek and weekend. As a result, the crude oil slump is less affected by the refined oil market. The monthly sales plan of the main unit sales company shows different performance, mostly showing a steady upward trend, with gasoline prices rising by about 50 yuan per ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Lu Xingjun, an analyst of refined oil products from business associations, believes that the bad news in the international crude oil market is constantly releasing, and the pressure of crude oil price rise is greater. However, the gasoline and diesel market is still confident in the peak demand season of “gold, silver and ten”, and the price of refined oil market is expected to continue to rise steadily next week.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, urea factory prices in Shandong fell this week. This week, the average price of urea mainstream producers dropped from 1845.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1818.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 1.45%, a decline of 5.65% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market fell slightly this week, with the urea commodity index of 84.57 on August 16.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the main urea factory prices in Shandong fell. The weekend quotation of urea in Yangmei Plain is 1755 yuan/ton, which is 110 yuan/ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Ruixing in Shandong is 1780 yuan/ton, which is 10 yuan/ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; and the weekend quotation of Mingshui Chemical Industry is 1920 yuan/ton, which is 20 yuan/ton higher than that at the beginning of the week. Recent environmental protection inspection atmosphere in China has eased, the overall industry start-up rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises has risen, and the plant load is still acceptable.

Market demand: Agricultural demand in Shandong has passed, agricultural demand has declined, although there is a phenomenon of fertilizer supplement, but demand is relatively small, urea growth is limited. With the downstream demand falling, urea prices also slowly declined. In terms of industrial demand, the downstream is affected by environmental protection policies. There are too many shutdowns and the demand for urea has fallen considerably, which further affects the price of urea. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will fall mainly in the short term.

Industry chain: upstream products overall downward, natural gas prices fell from 313.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3003.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 3.53%, liquid ammonia prices fell from 3300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3200 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 3.03%, urea cost support is weak, downstream melamine purchasing capacity is not strong, resulting in urea prices. The negative impact. The downstream compound fertilizer is generally started, which has a negative effect on urea.

3. Future Market Forecast

In late August, the urea market in Shandong was mainly consolidated at a low level. After the adjustment in July, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the start-up rate has risen, and the production capacity has risen. Business society urea analysts believe that the downstream of urea in China is affected by environmental protection policies and safety checks, so there are too many shutdowns and purchasing willingness is greatly reduced. In addition, the current climax of agricultural demand has passed, the atmosphere of urea market game is strong, and the start-up costs are gradually increasing, which makes the urea market price difficult to maintain. Urea prices are expected to consolidate at a low level in late August.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the market price of propylene (Shandong) in China has stabilized after rising recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propylene (Shandong) was 7,608 yuan/ton, while from Wednesday to Friday, the average price of propylene (Shandong) was stable at the high price of 7,741 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.75%.

II. Analytical Review

Products: The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province maintained stable in early August, declined continuously from 5 days to 8 days, declined 450-500 yuan/ton, recovered from double weekend, increased by 200 yuan/ton on 14 days, and stabilized on 15 days. At present, the market turnover is about 7650-7800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is about 7700 yuan/ton. The Shandong market was affected by typhoon this week. In the middle of the week, some upstream and downstream enterprises cut production and stopped reporting. Now most of them have returned to normal, but the refinery offer is still weak.

Industry chain: Upstream, affected by the international situation, the international crude oil market fluctuated sharply this week, rising and falling significantly, Wednesday prices fell sharply, and continued to fall slightly on Thursday, or had a negative impact on propylene. On the downstream side, there is a strong wait-and-see mood and a decline in buying enthusiasm. This week, polypropylene futures prices were stable, spot prices rose slightly, plant load increased slightly, and there was no significant negative impact on propylene; acrylic acid prices increased, the market was optimistic, and propylene propylene propylene propylene had certain support; while propylene oxide plant plant decreased negative, prices continued to rise, the weekly increase reached 3.23%, propylene has a part. The market of epichlorohydrin declined by more than 10% at the beginning of the week, the price of mainstream manufacturers declined, the market atmosphere was strong, the trading atmosphere was weak, the real order was limited, the low-end offer increased significantly under the pressure of shipment, which caused certain pressure on the propylene market; while the market of n-butanol increased slightly last weekend, and the isooctanol weekend. Small downward trend has little effect on propylene market.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propylene analysts from the Business Society Chemical Branch believe that: in general, the recent international crude oil market is unstable and has changed a lot. In the weekend downturn, the PP spot market is relatively stable, and the downstream market has risen and fallen. Among them, the price of epichlorohydrin has fallen sharply. This week, affected by typhoon, both upstream and downstream production has been cut off, although it is now large. Most of them have recovered, but the overall market is relatively cold. Propylene prices are expected to remain weak and stable in the near future.