The domestic butadiene market stopped falling this week. Business Association monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price was 9923 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 9990 yuan/ton at the weekend, 0.67% increase in the week, 0.90% maximum amplitude in the week, 16.00% increase in the price cycle, 24.03% decrease year on year.
II. Analysis of Influencing Factors
Products: This cycle, the domestic butadiene market reversed upward, Monday a small number of northeastern supply turnover high, boosting the prices of other export manufacturers to keep up with the rise, driving the northern market higher. Just in need of support in the downstream part, the price of northern manufacturers rose to around 9800-10300 yuan/ton on Thursday, but the downstream inquiries for high prices are becoming weak. The scarcity of goods in East China during the week, sporadic inflows of high-priced goods from North China, boosted the high offer, but the downstream inquiry intention was low, and the market was more cautious. However, in the absence of a clear supply of low-priced goods in the market, businessmen are mainly on the sidelines. In terms of price, Shandong’s top-grade products are sent to the offer for reference of 10,300 yuan/ton, up 500-600 yuan/ton annually, while East China’s price is 10,500 yuan/ton, up 200-300 yuan/ton annually.
Installation: Yangtze Petrochemical 220,000 tons/year plant, 3 Fushun Petrochemical 160,000 tons/year plant is in normal operation, and there is no export for the time being. The 100,000-ton/year oxidative dehydrogenation unit in Silbang, Jiangsu, was restarted and contracted for supply.
Industry chain: downstream synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, domestic butadiene-styrene plant start-up load of 5.9% this week: Tianjin Lugang, Hangzhou Yibang and Fuguo chemical butadiene-styrene rubber plant continue to stop; Jilin chemical butadiene-styrene plant two-line operation and production; Zhejiang Weitai first-line operation, Shenhua chemical second-line operation, Lanzhou Petrochemical butadiene-styrene plant Fushun Petrochemical Company maintained low-load operation of the fourth line, Yangtze Petrochemical butadiene-styrene unit operated on the first line and Qilu Petrochemical butadiene-styrene unit operated normally.
Cis-butadiene rubber: This week, the domestic high-cis-butadiene rubber plant started less than 50%, mainly by cost pressure drag, some devices continue to stop, follow-up needs close attention.
3. Future Market Forecast
On the positive side, the external market is high, domestic manufacturers have no obvious inventory pressure for the time being, and the state-owned synthetic rubber plant runs steadily. On the negative side, the downstream rubber market trend is weak. Fushun Petrochemical Supplementary Supply for Export, the policy impact, the downstream latex industry start-up situation to wait and see. In the downstream of East China’s new output supply contract, there is no spot inflow into the trade link for the time being, and Sinopec’s internal supply is relatively tight, butadiene market performance is relatively strong. Looking at the next cycle, on the one hand, Fushun Petrochemical restart export, northern spot resources have a certain incremental expectation, and the downstream has limited acceptance of the current high price, the spot market is weak, but the market has no obvious low-price supply supplement, the external market and Sinopec high price support, although the downstream market performance is weak, but the supplier information branch. Supported by this, the market has not risen or fallen much. Butadiene analysts from business associations expect that the domestic butadiene market will be consolidated slightly next week. They suggest that we pay attention to the changes in the supply side.