Price Trend

The domestic aggregate MDI market fluctuates narrowly. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the average market price of aggregate MDI was 13200 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, 13150 yuan/ton at the weekend, a 0.38% drop in the week, a 3.54% rise in price and a 29.05% drop in price over the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week aggregate MDI market fluctuations are frequent, are small fluctuations. At the beginning of the week, Coase’s Weekly Guidance Price “nothing new” remained stable, other suppliers’factories kept silent, the holders kept eating, under the influence of mentality and inventory pressure, the market talked about prices at low prices. In the next few days, the market was still “weak” and the downstream demand side was indifferent to the price level. Small orders just needed to negotiate to get goods, and the market supply volume was mostly circulated among middlemen. In the mid-week, in a continuing weak market atmosphere, market prices fell faster, but factories in the north were able to pull out in time, killing the trend of price drops. Market prices have stabilized, but the upward trend is not good enough. On Thursday, businesses were sceptical about the previous boost news, but northern supplier factories continued to work hard to announce the failure of Wanhua Ningbo separator, the continuous reduction of plant load and the impact of later supply. For a time, the holder’s offer increased steadily and slightly, and the importer’s offer failed to report. The atmosphere was slightly active. However, in the downstream worries, the operators still cautiously maintain shipment-oriented trading.

On the market side, as of Friday (8.23), the price of aggregated MDI in North China is stagnant and difficult to rise or fall. Supplier manufacturers are again in the market to the end, the holders are under pressure to deliver goods, after the market mentality is not the same, the market trading atmosphere is not significantly better. The price of aggregated MDI market in South China is deadlocked. North supplier factory boost news temporarily stopped falling, the mindset of different holders, continued to ship under pressure, the atmosphere of market negotiations continues to be light. The converged MDI market in eastern China is rocky and deadlocked. The news of boosting the market temporarily stopped falling, but the future market mentality is not very optimistic. The atmosphere of on-site talks is still light.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: This week, the price of pure benzene rose. The unplanned shutdown and delayed restart of some large-scale installations within the week resulted in a reduction in outflow. While the arbitrage window between the United States and South Korea remains open, domestic import arrivals remain low, the overall market supply is tight, and port inventory continues to decline to about 140,000 tons. At the beginning of the week, Sinopec added 100 yuan/ton to 5200 yuan/ton. Market prices also continued to rise to 5300-5350 yuan/ton.

Aniline: Within a week, the domestic aniline Market rose. In terms of raw materials, pure benzene continued to rise. Sinopec raised its listing price by 100 yuan/ton, the domestic spot supply was not much, the port inventory continued to decline, and the sharp rise in crude benzene led to the rise in hydrobenzene prices, which supported the firm offer of pure benzene holders. This week, the average tender price of pure benzene in Jinling, Shandong Province, increased by 368 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the cost support increased. Huatai restarted on the aniline Market in North China, but due to the lack of shipment of typhoon water in the early stage, some downstream enterprises have low stock of raw materials, active stock, and low inventory of Jinling aniline. Without sales pressure and cost support, prices continue to rise. In the aniline Market in East China, Nanhua mainly prepared three cargo ships in late January. Except for self-use, a small amount of spot was released, and the price rose.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives Viewpoint: The main manufacturers listed several times before the end of the month, then the new listing of manufacturers in September will undoubtedly rise. However, the overall market situation, the increase is not expected to be too large. MDI analysts from business associations expect to aggregate MDI market prices or maintain a steady upward trend next week and watch the attitudes of several supplier factories in Shanghai.