Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, urea factory prices in Shandong fell this week. This week, the average price of urea mainstream producers dropped from 1845.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1818.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 1.45%, a decline of 5.65% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market fell slightly this week, with the urea commodity index of 84.57 on August 16.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the main urea factory prices in Shandong fell. The weekend quotation of urea in Yangmei Plain is 1755 yuan/ton, which is 110 yuan/ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Ruixing in Shandong is 1780 yuan/ton, which is 10 yuan/ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; and the weekend quotation of Mingshui Chemical Industry is 1920 yuan/ton, which is 20 yuan/ton higher than that at the beginning of the week. Recent environmental protection inspection atmosphere in China has eased, the overall industry start-up rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises has risen, and the plant load is still acceptable.

Market demand: Agricultural demand in Shandong has passed, agricultural demand has declined, although there is a phenomenon of fertilizer supplement, but demand is relatively small, urea growth is limited. With the downstream demand falling, urea prices also slowly declined. In terms of industrial demand, the downstream is affected by environmental protection policies. There are too many shutdowns and the demand for urea has fallen considerably, which further affects the price of urea. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will fall mainly in the short term.

Industry chain: upstream products overall downward, natural gas prices fell from 313.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3003.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 3.53%, liquid ammonia prices fell from 3300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3200 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 3.03%, urea cost support is weak, downstream melamine purchasing capacity is not strong, resulting in urea prices. The negative impact. The downstream compound fertilizer is generally started, which has a negative effect on urea.

3. Future Market Forecast

In late August, the urea market in Shandong was mainly consolidated at a low level. After the adjustment in July, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the start-up rate has risen, and the production capacity has risen. Business society urea analysts believe that the downstream of urea in China is affected by environmental protection policies and safety checks, so there are too many shutdowns and purchasing willingness is greatly reduced. In addition, the current climax of agricultural demand has passed, the atmosphere of urea market game is strong, and the start-up costs are gradually increasing, which makes the urea market price difficult to maintain. Urea prices are expected to consolidate at a low level in late August.