1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, pure benzene rose for two weeks. On October 18, the listed price of pure benzene was 3180-3400 yuan / ton (average price was 3360 yuan / ton); this Sunday (October 25), the listed price of pure benzene was 3580-3700 yuan / ton (average price was 3625 yuan / ton), which was 165 yuan / ton or 7.89% higher than last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Driven by the rise of styrene, pure benzene continued to rise this week. At present, the price of pure benzene fluctuated significantly with the price of styrene. Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene three times this week to 3600 yuan / ton, with strong bottom support. Port inventory decreased slightly, but remained at a high level, limiting the price rise of pure benzene.

On the external side, on Friday (October 23), South Korea imported $442.67 per ton of pure benzene, an increase of 23.17 US dollars / ton, or 5.52%, compared with October 16; and that of East China was 449.5 US dollars / ton, an increase of 21 US dollars / ton, or 4.9%.

In terms of crude oil, the impact of public health events in Europe and the United States intensified, but the consultation on the US economic stimulus package failed to reach an agreement, the demand for crude oil was weak, and worries were intensified, and the oil price was under pressure. Compared with October 16, Brent fell $0.415/barrel, or 1.1%, while WTI fell $1.27/barrel, or 3.09%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 38.24%, and WTI decreased by 34.42%.

Downstream: good push styrene continued to rise, two weeks up more than 23%. At present, pure benzene fluctuates with styrene price. On October 25, the price of styrene in Shandong was 6733.33 yuan / ton, which was 683.33 yuan / ton higher than last week, or 11.29%.

This week, aniline enterprises are running with high prices. On October 16, the price of aniline in Shandong was 6600-6700 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 6700-6800 yuan / ton

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, Libya’s crude oil exports increased, and the US economic stimulus plan has not reached an agreement, and other negative factors, the downward pressure on oil prices is greater.

Next week, there is still room for the rise of styrene in the downstream, but for two consecutive weeks, the purchase of high price styrene in the downstream of styrene will be reduced, and the increase of pure benzene may slow down. In addition, although the port inventory of pure benzene has decreased slightly, it is still at a high level. It is expected that the market will turn cautious in the following week. Pay attention to the demand brought by the new downstream devices in the later stage.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the ethyl acetate Market this week was strongly supported by multiple favorable conditions. As of October 23, the average price of enterprises in East China was about 6162 yuan / ton, up 2.07% compared with the beginning of the week and 6.71% higher than that at the beginning of the month.

This week, the domestic ethyl acetate Market was strong and upward, the industry started smoothly, the shortage of goods eased, the downstream market demand was strong, the overall purchasing performance was positive, the demand side support was stable, the raw materials acetic acid and ethanol prices were high, the cost side was high, and the price of ethyl acetate continued to rise. At present, it is about 6250 yuan / ton in East China, 6100 yuan / ton in North China and 6500 yuan / ton in South China.

In terms of raw materials, the spot supply in the market is tight, the inventory of enterprises is low, the domestic demand and export in the downstream market are both favorable support, and the supply and demand in the industry is tightly balanced. With the price of acetic acid rising to a high level, some downstream and traders are gradually rational in purchasing. The ethanol market is strong and upward, and the market of raw corn is soaring. Some ethanol enterprises are overhauling their devices, and the industrial inventory is low. Before the festival, some downstream stocks are insufficient. After the festival, the ethanol is purchased again. At present, the ethanol in East China is about 6825 yuan / ton.

The international market price of ethyl acetate is strong, and the port price in European market is about 820-850 euro / ton, and that in North America is about 700 US dollars / ton.

According to the analysts of ethyl acetate of business club, the domestic ethyl acetate market continues to rise, and the supply of goods in the industry is tight due to good downstream domestic demand. In addition, with the high level of raw materials, the enterprise has a good price intention under the condition of small warehouse pressure, and it is expected that the domestic ethyl acetate Market will remain strong and upward in a short period of time.

With the arrival of the peak season, DME market finally got rid of the downward trend and went out of the upward curve. In September, the center of gravity shifted upward, making the “golden nine” brilliant. With the advent of the “silver 10″, the market continues to rise, mainly in price. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 2556.67 yuan / ton on October 8, and 2703.33 yuan / ton on October 20, with an increase of 5.74% and 22.32% compared with September 1

In a flash, two thirds of October has passed, and the DME market rose first, then consolidated and then rose. Although the overall rise was narrower than that in September, the market was still positive. After the festival, the dimethyl ether market first rose as a whole. Due to the downstream demand for inventory after the festival, the overall market atmosphere is good, and in terms of cost, the raw material methanol goes up, which also brings some favorable support to the market. In October, the weather has cooled down significantly, especially in the northern region, and the overall demand for terminals has increased. Henan, the main production area, has stable supply, good shipment and low inventory pressure. Supported by multiple favorable conditions, the DME market continued to rise.

Subsequently, DME market entered consolidation state. With the end of the downstream replenishment after the festival, they have been delisted to consume inventory, and as the price continues to push up, the downstream acceptance capacity is limited, cautious and wait-and-see. In addition, international crude oil continued to fall and the international market support was insufficient, which brought negative effects to the market. The market continued to rise in a lack of momentum, some fell, but the mentality of manufacturers is still strong, although there is a decline, but the range is not large, mainly horizontal consolidation. In order to protect the market price, some enterprises in Henan Province, such as xinlianxin, carried out the minimum guarantee policy for two days.

With the end of the minimum guarantee policy of xinlianxin and other enterprises in Henan Province and the announcement of the settlement price, xinlianxin has been reduced from 2650 yuan / ton on October 12 to 2610 yuan / ton on October 15. Although the price has declined, the range is small. From October 18 to 20, xinlianxin raised 20 yuan / ton for three consecutive days. On October 18, it rose back to the price before falling, and on October 20, the ex factory price rose to 2690 yuan / ton. Henan, the main production area, rose overall, the production and sales of enterprises were balanced, and the inventory was mostly in a controllable state.

As of October 20, the quotation of each region is as follows:

Regional specification Date Quotation

Mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Shandong area: ≥ 99.0% 2600 yuan / ton on October 20

The mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Hebei area: ≥ 99.0%, October 20 2675 yuan / ton

Mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Henan Province: ≥ 99.0% Oct. 20 2630-2735 yuan / T

The overall upward trend of raw material methanol market has brought certain support to dimethyl ether Market

After the domestic methanol market rose after the festival, some manufacturers increased the ex factory quotation again, with the range of 30-50 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 1825 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week (10.12), and 1930 yuan / ton at the weekend (10.16), with an increase of 5.75% during the week, a rise of 6.78% on a month on month basis, and a decrease of 17.17% on a year-on-year basis. The quotation of methanol market in various regions has also increased to varying degrees, among which Shandong and Shanxi regions have obvious upward trend. After the festival, the methanol market was affected by the favorable factors such as the maintenance of overseas units and the continuous storage of ports, and the market price increased slightly. At present, most traders ship at high prices, and methanol analysts of business associations predict that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

At present, the methanol market has been adjusted in a narrow range, and the domestic gas market has fallen down after rising, which has limited support for the DME market. In the international market, crude oil closed down slightly and brought some negative effects. However, the overall transaction atmosphere of dimethyl ether Market is relatively mild, downstream inventory is appropriate to enter the market replenishment operation, most manufacturers have balanced production and sales, and inventory is controllable. The mentality is mostly firm. And the current peak season factors still exist, the future market, dimethyl ether Market is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic toluene market closed down slightly this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3410 yuan / ton, down 0.58% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Toluene prices fell slightly this week. Sinopec’s enterprises listed toluene price stable this week. The port inventory is still high, and the pressure to go to the warehouse still exists. The market is oversupply, the downstream blended oil and solvent demand is general, the price is slightly weak, and there is a slight fluctuation in recent years. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3350 yuan / ton. The future market continued to pay attention to the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on crude oil supply, the development of new crown vaccine, the impact of economic restart and recovery on crude oil demand, the global economic recovery and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.

Upstream, crude oil, oil prices rose slightly this week, OPEC helped oil prices, but the epidemic situation and economic downturn risk limit oil prices. As of Friday, Brent rose $0.575/barrel to close at $41.65/barrel, up 1.4% month on month. Russia and Saudi Arabia held their second and unusual teleconference this week to discuss the OPEC + agreement, with officials of the organization warning on Friday that the oil market could be weak in 2021. In the short term, close attention will be paid to the upcoming Joint Ministerial oversight committee meeting on October 19.

In terms of TDI in the downstream, the trend fell slightly this week. According to market news, the listing price of Shanghai BASF TDI in October was 23000 yuan / ton, with an increase of 1000 yuan / ton on a month on month basis. The settlement in September was 17200 yuan / ton, and the month on month increase was 4100 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain a stable trend. In terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week was about 4450 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk was about 537 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 555 US dollars / ton CFR China. PX market is expected to maintain a stable trend in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business society: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of American oil wells and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the second outbreak of global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the dollar index and stock market linkage. Next week, we will focus on the progress of a new round of stimulus measures in the United States, as well as the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market will remain weak and stable next week.

The international crude oil fluctuates in a narrow range, which has limited support for the domestic asphalt market, and the “silver ten” peak demand season of the asphalt market has not appeared, and the domestic asphalt price has decreased slightly. According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, the asphalt price on October 16 was 2267 yuan / ton, down 1.31% from the beginning of the week.

Saudi Arabia cut crude oil prices in the middle of the week; demand for crude oil in Europe has been declining due to the impact of the new crown; Saudi Arabia has put pressure on OPEC and Russia to reduce crude oil production; EIA data show that US crude oil inventories fell by 3.818 million barrels in the week of October 9. The international crude oil market is intertwined with long and short news, and the international oil price is operating in a narrow range. WTI crude oil prices rose 1.28% and Brent crude oil prices rose 0.19%.

October is also the traditional demand peak season of asphalt market, but under the background of high supply of asphalt and less than expected demand of terminal market, the asphalt market is not prosperous in peak season. In October, the temperature in northern China will gradually decrease, and some projects in Northeast and Northwest China will enter the finishing stage; due to the influence of rainfall in some areas of South China, the terminal demand of asphalt will be slightly affected; in North China and East China, there is a large demand for asphalt, and the same supply of asphalt is sufficient, which has a limited pulling effect on the asphalt market price. On the whole, the domestic asphalt market is oversupplied, and the asphalt market is under pressure, and the domestic asphalt price falls slightly.

Analysts of business agency believe that the international crude oil market is lack of good, and the international crude oil price will continue to be under pressure; although there is rigid demand and support in the asphalt market, the supply pressure is large, and the domestic asphalt price is expected to fall steadily.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of October 16, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 6533 yuan / ton. Compared with October 12, the average price of domestic n-butanol increased by 183 yuan / ton, or 2.89%; compared with October 1, the average price of domestic n-butanol increased by 200 yuan / ton, or 3.16%.

This week, the market of n-butanol concentrated on high-end operation

The market of n-butanol has been rising this week. The high level of raw propylene supports the cost of n-butanol. The market trend of butyl ester in the downstream is good, which also gives market confidence. At present, the market of n-butanol is conducted smoothly up and down, and the trading atmosphere is good. The average quotation price of domestic mainstream regions is 6533 yuan / ton. Among them, the mainstream quotation of n-butanol in South China is around 6900 yuan / ton, and the high-end price is increased to 7000 yuan / ton; the mainstream quotation of n-butanol in North China is 6500-6600 yuan / ton, the mainstream quotation of n-butanol in East China is 6700-6800 yuan / ton, and the high-end quotation is 6900 yuan / ton. As of the 16th, Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 6500 yuan / ton of n-butanol, up 200 yuan / ton within the week, Shandong lihuayi’s ex factory offer of n-butanol was 6500 yuan / ton, with an increase of 150 yuan / ton during the week, and that of Wanhua chemical in North China was 6600 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton during the week.

On the upstream side, on October 15, the propylene market prices in Shandong Province fell slightly. According to the price chart of the business agency, since October 1, the price of propylene has remained stable on the whole, and the prices of some enterprises have gone up and down slightly. On Thursday, only one enterprise’s price dropped slightly, while other enterprises continued to keep stable. The market turnover is now between 7480 yuan / ton and 7650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7500 yuan / ton. Recently, part of the propylene plant maintenance, the overall supply is small tension.

Stable demand for n-butanol at low inventory level

At present, the inventory level of factories and ports is on the low side, the position of middlemen is concentrated, and the enterprise’s spot offer is high. The main downstream butyl ester demand for raw materials is stable, and it is expected that the high-end of n-butanol market will be strong in the short term.

The sulfur commodity index on September 29 was 46.64, up 0.37 points compared with yesterday, 55.08% lower than 103.84 points (2011-11-02), and 80.85% higher than the lowest point of 25.79 on February 24, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of sulfur production in East China was 850.00 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.79%. On the 29th, domestic refineries adjusted their prices according to their own shipment situation. The quotation of solid sulfur in East China was increased by 20-50 yuan / ton. The sulfur quotation in North China and Shandong was temporarily stable, and the sulfur market remained stable and upward trend. Near the double festival, refineries in various regions of China maintain low inventory operation, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market is mainly cautious and wait-and-see. The mainstream prices of solid sulfur and liquid sulfur in North China of SINOPEC are 710-800 yuan / T and 660-720 yuan / T; those of Sinopec in East China are 860-1060 yuan / ton and 760-900 yuan / ton; those in Shandong Province of SINOPEC are 840-850 yuan / ton and 840-850 yuan / ton respectively.

The market of sulfuric acid rose slightly. The inventory of sulfuric acid enterprises in Shandong remained low, and the downstream procurement was stable, and the market transaction atmosphere was good. In the aspect of phosphate fertilizer, the market export and domestic demand were stable, the price trend of Monoammonium and diammonium was stable, fertilizer use in autumn entered the end stage, and the market was stable in the later stage.

Aftermarket forecast: at present, the price of domestic sulfur market is stable, and the quotation of sulfur enterprises is mainly stable. It is close to the National Day holiday, and the atmosphere of the festival is strong. It is expected that the sulfur market will be stable in the short term.

Price trend:

According to the business agency data monitoring, this week, the o-benzene contract quotation is stable. As of September 27, Sinopec has offered 4400.00 yuan / ton of o-xylene in East China and 4400 yuan / ton in North China, which is stable compared with the beginning of the week, and the market of o-xylene is temporarily stable.

Upstream market of o-benzene

It can be seen from the mixed xylene price trend chart that the mixed xylene price of o-xylene raw material fluctuated and fell this week, and the cost of o-xylene decreased, which was negative for the o-xylene market.

As can be seen from WTI crude oil price trend chart, the crude oil market this week fell by 1.82%. The crude oil price fluctuated and fell, the pressure of the cost drop of the downstream industry chain increased, the market of the downstream industry chain was negative, and the market of o-benzene was negative.

Trend of downstream products

It can be seen from the phthalic anhydride price trend chart that the phthalic anhydride price fluctuated this week, and the phthalic anhydride market was strong and stable, which was good for the o-benzene market.

Future forecast:

Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst at the business club, believes that this week’s fall in crude oil prices will have a negative impact on the downstream industrial chain, and the o-benzene market will be negative. The upstream mixed xylene price will drop, the cost of o-xylene will drop, and the rising power of o-benzene will decrease, and the downward pressure will increase. The overall situation of the market after o-xylene will be weak and stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the large data list of business associations, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on September 24 was 4866.67 yuan / ton, up 1.04% compared with the beginning of the month, 0.66% on a month on month basis, 9.03% lower than the beginning of the year, and 10.98% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In September, the phosphoric acid market broke the calm and went up steadily. This month’s rise was mainly due to the tight spot price of raw material yellow phosphorus, which was transmitted to the phosphoric acid market. In the first half of the month, the phosphoric acid market was relatively calm. Under the off-season, the demand was relatively stable, and the actual trading atmosphere was slightly light. In the face of upward pressure on costs, the phosphoric acid market was cautious and wait-and-see situation, and some sporadic small rises were explored. In the second half of the month, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus continued to rise, and the enthusiasm continued to increase. Superimposed on the approaching holiday, the downstream started the pre holiday stock mode. The phosphoric acid market was boosted by this, and the price of phosphoric acid increased slightly. Some enterprises also kept a steady wait-and-see market.

At present, the downstream replenishment has increased compared with the previous period, the manufacturers’ delivery pressure is not great, the trading atmosphere is slightly improved, and the southwest region is in a smooth flow with positive adjustment, but the demand is not in large volume, and the rising space is limited. Take KANGLONG, Sichuan Province as an example, the price at the beginning of the month is 4550 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month is 4600 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 50 yuan, which is relatively stable in other regions. Near the end of the month, the delivery plan of phosphoric acid enterprises before the festival is mostly full, a small amount of terminal replenishment, and the market is expected to maintain stable operation before the festival.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of September 24, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 4870 yuan / ton, the price in Sichuan was 4600-5300 yuan / ton, the price was rising, the price in Guangxi was about 4750 yuan / ton, and the transaction was stable; the quotation in Yunnan was about 4800 yuan / ton, the price was temporarily stable; in Beijing, the price was about 4700 yuan / ton, the price was temporarily stable; in Hubei, the price was 4800-4850 yuan The price of Tianjin is about 5500 yuan / ton, which is stable for the time being; the price of Jiangsu is about 4450-4500 yuan / ton, with little fluctuation. Prices around the country remained stable and wait-and-see, with the focus moving up slightly.

Regional product specification date price (yuan / ton)

Phosphoric acid content: 85% in East China

Phosphoric acid content: 85% in Southwest China

Phosphoric acid content: 85% in Central China

On September 24, the phosphoric acid industrial chain index was 87.19, up 0.12 points compared with yesterday, 17.94% lower than 106.25 points (2012-03-22), and 12.36% higher than 77.60 points, the lowest point on July 2, 2019. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The price of yellow phosphorus in the upper reaches has increased steadily recently. Manufacturers mainly issued early orders, yellow phosphorus spot tight, traders wait-and-see mood is obvious, high price transaction limited. However, a small number of downstream enterprises that did not prepare goods in time also have the possibility of taking goods at high prices. Forecast: in the short term, the price of yellow phosphorus is mainly high.

At present, China’s phosphate ore market is still weak and stable, with insufficient downstream purchasing power, less support for phosphate rock, and lack of large single support in the field. Therefore, it is expected that the short-term demand side of phosphate ore market will not improve significantly. In late September, the overall phosphate ore market is still weak and stable, the upward momentum is slightly weak, and the overall market fluctuation is limited.

Sulfuric acid, in late September, the market of sulfuric acid in Shandong area or a small shock rise. The price of sulfur in the upstream has risen slightly in recent years, and the downstream market has been consolidated at a high level. The demand for sulfuric acid in the downstream is positive, and the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business agency believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of sulfuric acid market or a small rise.

The autumn sales of ammonium phosphate and monoammonium in the lower reaches have basically come to an end, and the winter storage policy has not yet been issued. It is expected that monoammonium finishing will be mainly operated in the short term. At present, the domestic demand for diammonium is acceptable, but the new orders are few. The export market is good and the price is always strong. The operation of diammonium is expected to be stable in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The phosphoric acid analyst of the chemical branch of the business society believes that, near the end of the month, the delivery plan of phosphoric acid enterprises before the festival is mostly full, and a small amount of replenishment at the terminal, and the market before the festival is expected to maintain stable operation.

1、 Price trend

This week, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China dropped slightly. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers dropped from 2740.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2730.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 10 yuan / ton or 0.36%, and 4.77% compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s calcium carbide market fell slightly, the carbide commodity index on September 18 was 71.53.

2、 Trend analysis

According to the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China has been stable and falling this week: the price of calcium carbide from ovicanon is 2800 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which is 30 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; the price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia and China Union is 2690 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of calcium carbide in Xingping of Ningxia is 2700 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

Overall, the actual transaction price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is about 2650-2800 yuan / ton this weekend: the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 2800 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Ningxia is about 2700 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2650 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation.

From the calcium carbide upstream and downstream industry chain, upstream raw material market, orchid charcoal factory quotation this week temporarily stable. At present, the quotation of small materials is 560 yuan / ton, that of medium materials is 580 yuan / ton, and that of large materials is about 750 yuan / ton. The low price consolidation of upstream raw materials and the general cost support have a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory price rose slightly this week. The price of PVC increased from 6580.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6667.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.33%, and decreased by 2.06% compared with the same period last year. This week, PVC prices rose slightly, the market is good, downstream purchasing enthusiasm for calcium carbide, overall, PVC market this week has a positive impact on calcium carbide prices.

3、 Future forecast

In late September, calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, which generally supports the price of calcium carbide, while the price of PVC in the downstream rises slightly. The downstream customers are more active in purchasing calcium carbide. Moreover, the production capacity of calcium carbide is insufficient at this stage, and the supply of calcium carbide is tense. The later market forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in late September.