1、 Price trend

This week, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong fell from 2023.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2013.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.49%, up 20.08% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the urea market fell this week, with the urea commodity index at 93.64 on January 22.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong fell this week. Yangmei plain urea quoted 2020 yuan / ton this weekend, down 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2000 yuan / ton this weekend, down 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 2020 yuan / ton this weekend, down 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

On the whole, the downstream demand is tightening as a whole. In agriculture, the price of urea is relatively high and the purchase of agriculture is cautious. In industry, due to the impact of air pollution control in some areas, plate enterprises shut down, and compound fertilizer enterprises started with general load, so the demand for proper follow-up. On the supply side, the early maintenance units started in succession, and the output increased steadily.

From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain: the overall price of upstream urea products fell significantly this week: the price of liquefied natural gas fell sharply, from 5366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4556.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 15.09%, a year-on-year increase of 47.47%; the price of liquid ammonia rose slightly this week, from 3343.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3383.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a rise of 15.09% 20%, up 13.28% over the same period last year. This week, the price of melamine in the lower reaches of urea was temporarily stable, at 7200.00 yuan / ton. Overall, urea cost support is weak this week.

3、 Future forecast

In late January, the urea market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that the current agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand has declined. At the beginning of the week, urea supply is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term, and the market will mainly fall.