1、 Price trend
In 2020, the overall operation of phosphorus chemical industry will be weak, and the market of phosphoric acid will fluctuate and fall. According to the block data list of business society, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on December 31 was 4983 yuan / ton, down 6.85% compared with the beginning of the year. The lowest price of the whole year was 4716 yuan / ton, the highest price was 5366 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude of the whole year was 12.11%.
According to the monthly rise and fall chart of phosphoric acid from January to December in 2020, the overall monthly price of phosphoric acid showed a downward trend in the first, third, fourth, sixth, seventh and December, and rose in other months, with the biggest rise in October and the biggest decline in June. The price of phosphoric acid declined throughout the year.
2、 Market analysis
Phosphoric acid prices fluctuated in a narrow range in the first quarter. As the Spring Festival approaches in January, the stock of goods in the downstream is basically completed before the festival, and a few enterprises replenish goods sporadically, so the fluctuation of phosphoric acid market is limited. In February, due to the public health incident, the start-up of parking factories was delayed, the traffic and transportation control was severe, and the shipment of phosphoric acid enterprises was difficult. In the second half of the month, the start-up of phosphoric acid enterprises gradually increased, the price of raw materials increased, and the price of phosphoric acid rose steadily. In March, the market of phosphoric acid became weak, the price decreased, the market of phosphoric acid was weak, all regions basically returned to normal, the high-end prices in the market generally decreased, the focus of market transactions moved down, the supporting effect of raw material side weakened, and the enterprises were more cautious to wait and see, and more follow the market. In the first quarter, it fell slightly by 0.31%.
In the second quarter, the price of phosphoric acid first fell, then rose, and then fell. In April, the phosphoric acid market was in general, raw material prices fell, and the phosphoric acid market fell accordingly. Meanwhile, affected by foreign public health events, the export situation of phosphoric acid was not good, and domestic demand did not have a large volume. The focus of transaction moved down. Near the May Day holiday, the stock of phosphoric acid downstream increased before the festival, and the price rose. In May, domestic demand has basically recovered. In the fertilizer peak season, most phosphoric acid manufacturers in some areas are self-produced and self used, and they are reluctant to sell. As a result, the supply of some goods in the yard is tight, and the support of yellow phosphorus at the raw material end is acceptable, the market trend of phosphoric acid is becoming stronger. In June, the price of phosphoric acid continued to fall. After the implementation of electricity price in wet season, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus fell to a low level. Due to the close relationship between phosphoric acid (thermal process) and yellow phosphorus, the price of yellow phosphorus decreased rapidly, the cost support collapsed, the price of phosphoric acid also decreased, and the trading center continued to move downward. It fell 8.75% in the second quarter.
In the third quarter, the phosphoric acid Market froze. The overall phosphoric acid market went down in July and rebounded slightly towards the end of the month. The market demand is poor in the off-season, and the goods are generally sold. There is pressure on the sales of phosphoric acid enterprises, and the trading atmosphere is not high. In August, the phosphoric acid market was running smoothly, and the overall market atmosphere was still weak. Both the buyer and the seller held a wait-and-see state, and the inquiry enthusiasm was not high. The merchants made the offer according to the market, and the actual transaction was insufficient. The downstream sporadic replenishment, the lack of positive signals in the market, the seesaw deadlock between the cost side and the demand side, the mainstream price of the market was stable, and the sporadic rise, and the market was frozen. In September, the phosphoric acid market went up steadily. The spot price of raw material yellow phosphorus was tight, and the price rose, which was transmitted to the phosphoric acid market. In the second half of the month, the price rose. With the coming holiday, the downstream started the mode of stock preparation before the festival. Boosted by this, the price of phosphoric acid rose slightly, and some enterprises kept a steady wait-and-see market.
Phosphoric acid market rose in the fourth quarter. In October, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus continued to rise, the phosphoric acid market continued to move upward with the rise of raw materials, and the focus of negotiation continued to move towards a high level, but the demand side showed poor performance, the industry had a strong wait-and-see mentality, and the price did not rise significantly. In November, due to the increase of electricity price in the normal water period, the production cost of raw material yellow phosphorus enterprises increased, and the environmental protection requirements of atmospheric monitoring in autumn and winter were superimposed, the yellow phosphorus spot was still tight, the manufacturers actively increased, and the phosphoric acid market rose accordingly. In December, the raw materials were first restrained and then raised, the phosphoric acid market was cautious and wait-and-see, and the market was stable at the end of the year.
Recently, the overall trend of domestic yellow phosphorus market is upward, the market demand is good, and the manufacturers are reluctant to sell. Traders are more cautious in taking goods and mainly purchase on demand in the downstream. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 16733 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Sichuan is about 16700 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Guizhou is about 16500 yuan / ton. In January, some enterprises in Yunnan plan to stop production for maintenance, the supply will be reduced, and the demand for goods preparation before the Spring Festival will increase. For now, the price of yellow phosphorus will still be adjusted above in the short term.
In 2020, the price of phosphorus chemical products will fall more than rise. According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 2 kinds of commodities rising, 3 kinds of commodities falling and 0 kinds of commodities rising or falling in the price list of phosphorus chemical products in 2020. The main commodities rising were monoammonium phosphate (11.01%) and diammonium phosphate (10.91%); the main commodities falling were yellow phosphorus (- 7.95%), phosphoric acid (- 6.85%) and phosphate rock (- 1.65%). The average annual rise and fall of this year is 1.09%.
3、 Future forecast
According to the phosphoric acid analysts of chemical branch of business society, the overall operation of phosphorus chemical industry will be weak in 2020, and the phosphoric acid market will fluctuate and fall. In 2021, the supply of raw material yellow phosphorus is tight, the price is rising, and the cost side is favorable to the phosphoric acid market. At present, the preparation of goods is started before the year, the demand side is improved, and the quotation of phosphoric acid is slightly increased. However, most manufacturers still maintain stable prices, and the main supplier orders, and the cautious wait-and-see attitude remains. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will continue to be stable in the short term, with big price stability and small price movement. In the future, we need to pay attention to the price trend of raw materials.