In January 2021, the domestic tin ingot Market rose after the shock. The average price of the domestic market was 151887.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 170975 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 12.57%.
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On January 28, the tin commodity index was 87.09, up 0.01 points from yesterday, down 13.13% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.25 points (2011-09-05), and up 103.20% from the lowest point of 42.86 points on December 09, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).
After the futures market entered 2021, with the weak rebound of the US dollar index, financial stimulus measures of various countries to accelerate economic recovery and other macro positive factors, Shanghai tin made efforts from the 160000 mark to constantly set a new high, up to now the highest to 174000, a new high since its listing. In terms of inventory, London Metal Exchange (LME) reported 880 metric tons of lungshi’s inventory on the 28th, 25 metric tons less than the previous trading day’s inventory. The current inventory remains at a low level compared with that in recent five years, and lungshi’s de inventory is still expected to increase. The shortage of global tin market further increased, leading the rise of Shanghai tin. According to the latest statistics of the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs), there will be a shortage of 16900 tons of tin in the world from January to November 2020.
In terms of ore supply, more than 90% of China’s tin mines depend on Myanmar’s imports. In 2020, affected by the production reduction of Myanmar’s local tin mines, China’s import data is significantly lower than in previous years. In December last year, China imported about 16000 tons of tin concentrate, with a month on month decrease of 7.82% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.12%. However, December is already the month with more tin concentrate imports in 2020. In 2020, China’s total import of tin concentrate was 158000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.27%. Affected by the public health situation in Myanmar, production and transportation were restricted again in January, and the import volume is expected to continue to decline in January.
In the spot market, with the futures price rising all the way, the domestic spot market price also rose strongly, and has now broken the 170000 mark. At present, there are few sources of goods in circulation in the spot market, and the performance of price increase and discount is strong. As of the end of the month, there are few quoting traders. As of the 29th, the price discount for 2103 contract is about 200-400 yuan / ton for ordinary cloud words and 500-1000 yuan / ton for small brands. In February, the stock preparation before the festival basically ended, the market fear of high sentiment was high, the overall transaction was weak, and there was no market for price.
In the future, the business community believes that the current spot market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and subject to the restrictions of imported tin concentrate, the tight supply of ore end will continue for a period of time in the future. It is expected that the situation of spot market with price but without market before the festival will continue, and Shanghai Tin Company may continue to set a new record in the future.
From January to November 2020, the world reported refined tin production decreased by 8000 tons compared with the same period last year. China’s apparent demand increased by 17.7% over the same period last year. From January to November 2020, the global demand for tin will be 348000 tons, an increase of 2.9% over the same period last year. Japan’s demand is 18800 tons, down 19% from January to November 2019. In November 2020, the global refined tin output is 30900 tons, and the consumption is 33100 tons.
According to the data released by Indonesia’s Ministry of trade, Indonesia’s exports of refined tin totaled 4551.75 tons in November. Indonesia is one of the most important tin exporting countries in the world. Data showed that refined tin exports in November decreased by 1.3% compared with the same period last year, but increased slightly compared with the previous month.
On December 25, the Ministry of industry and information technology approved 669 industry standards, including 104 non-ferrous metal industry standards and 19 rare earth industry standards. It is reported that nine stannum related industry standards will be implemented from April 1, 2021.