The general trend of the civil LPG market stabilized in the middle and late August, and the fluctuation range was limited during the period, with the rise and fall mostly maintained at about 50 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LPG in Shandong market was 3150.00 yuan / ton on August 18, and 3166.67 yuan / ton on August 24, with an increase of 0.53% and 1.60% compared with August 1.

In the middle and late August, Shandong LPG civil market is mainly stable, with limited fluctuation range. The price is mostly maintained at about 3200 yuan / ton, and the market transaction atmosphere is general. From August 18 to 20, due to the limited downstream demand and resistance to high prices, the enthusiasm for entering the market turned weak and the atmosphere of shipment was general. The market was weak at first, but the range was not large. Subsequently, on the 21st and 24th, there were two small rises, but the range was still limited. Due to the low level of supply in the District, after the price dropped slightly, the downstream market was appropriately replenished, and the transaction atmosphere was improved. After the manufacturers’ inventory fell to the middle level, some of them pushed up sporadically, and the upstream mentality was strong.

Until August 25, the mainstream prices of LPG in various regions of China are as follows:

Specification, mode of transportation, region, date, mainstream transaction price

Civil gas transportation in North China on August 25: 3090-3150 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in East China on August 25, 2960-3000 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in South China on August 25, 2950-2970 yuan / ton

Civil gas transportation by truck in Shandong Province on August 25, 3140-3180 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in Northeast China August 25: 3200-3400 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in Western China August 25: 3040-3045 yuan / ton

During the middle and late August, the weak decline of upstream international crude oil had limited support for the market. Downstream products rose and fell in different ways, with maleic anhydride and propylene markets rising slightly, while propane and ethylene markets declined mainly.

At present, as the storm approaches the Gulf of Mexico, more than half of the offshore production facilities in the region are closed, and the supply is reduced. It is expected that the oil price will be boosted, and the international crude oil will be pushed up. The news will play a positive role in the market. At present, the market is supported by low supply and good profit, most of the inventory is in the middle and low level, and the willingness to support price is obvious. However, the terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the enthusiasm of downstream market entry is limited, and it is mainly cautious to wait and see. Most of the manufacturers’ shipment performance is general, the market transaction atmosphere is flat, to a certain extent, the price rise is restrained. It is estimated that it will be difficult to achieve a sharp rise in the short term, or high-level consolidation is the main task.

Adipic acid market trend chart

According to the business club’s big list data, this week (8.17-8.21), the domestic adipic acid market weak adjustment, some regions prices slightly lower. According to the data monitored by the business agency, adipic acid in East China decreased slightly, by only 0.60%. The market demand was sluggish, the market supply pressure was not reduced, and most dealers reported low profits to ship goods. Market people still looked down on the future market, and the dealers were mainly light on inventory operation. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the current quotation range of adipic acid market is 6500-6700 yuan / ton.

In terms of market supply, the operating rate of adipic acid manufacturers this week was flat compared with that of last week, at present, more than 80% of them are at present. Dealers usually take delivery of goods normally. At present, relative to the off-season level, some dealers purchase according to the order, and light the inventory operation. Generally speaking, the pressure of enterprise inventory and market inventory is relatively large. In terms of cost, the upstream crude oil price maintained a periodic high, and pure benzene rose slightly this week by 0.88%. After experiencing the upward market in late July, the current periodic correction of pure benzene is insufficient to support the downstream adipic acid (as shown in the figure below). At present, the main contradiction in the market is that the downstream demand has not fundamentally improved, and adipic acid is squeezed from both upstream and downstream, resulting in the gradual decline of enterprise profits.

Market trend of pure benzene

From the perspective of terminal demand, the downstream demand has little change compared with the previous period, and is still in the off-season level. The operating rate of downstream factories has not been significantly improved, and the overall consumption level of plastic products is not significantly improved, which is difficult to boost the market of upstream raw materials. In addition, the rigid consumption of polyurethane in the downstream is stable. Although the state has promoted new infrastructure investment, the real estate sector has not benefited much and the insulation material industry has not improved significantly. In addition, PA66 and other downstream products are not warm and tepid, and the price is still hovering at a low level. This week, the price fluctuated narrowly, with a slight increase of 0.66% (as shown in the figure below). As a result, adipic acid demand is difficult to fundamentally change, inventory is difficult to digest, manufacturers have a lot of pressure, dealers generally follow the market and purchase on demand. In addition, in addition to the weak domestic demand, external demand has also worsened. Especially affected by the overseas epidemic, the external demand has decreased, and the export pressure of adipic acid has continued to increase. It is not ruled out that the inventory will continue to rise in the future.

PA66 market trend chart

In the later stage, the business community seems that the fundamentals are still weak in the short term, the upstream lacks favorable support, the supply is loose, and the market price is squeezed by cheap goods. The downstream market will remain weak due to the weak domestic demand and the shrinking foreign demand orders caused by the severe overseas epidemic situation.

1、 Price trend

The comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China fell slightly this week, with the quotation falling from 335.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 330.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 5 yuan / ton or 1.49%. Overall, hydrochloric acid market fell slightly this week, with the hydrochloric acid commodity index of 86.84 on August 21.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation point of view, this week hydrochloric acid Market manufacturer quotation drops slightly, the overall market is general. The quotation of Taiyuan kunshengda hydrochloric acid is 480 yuan / T, which is temporarily stable; Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 300 yuan / T, which is temporarily stable; Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid is 260 yuan / T at weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid is quoted at 450 yuan / T at weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Dezhou Meihua hydrochloric acid is quoted at 180 yuan / T at weekend, which is 20 yuan lower than that at the beginning of the week /Tons.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid, while the high consolidation of the downstream silica and ammonium chloride market has a positive impact on hydrochloric acid and has a certain support for the price of hydrochloric acid. The overall hydrochloric acid market this week seems to be stable temporarily, and the difficulty of hydrochloric acid delivery is still a big problem.

3、 Future forecast

The recent market of upstream liquid chlorine is general, while the downstream silica and ammonium chloride are mainly purchased on demand. Business agency analysts believe that hydrochloric acid recent low consolidation.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide

(Figure: P value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis

Propylene oxide Market is up this week. As of August 21, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises was 13200 yuan / ton, up 1.8% compared with the beginning of the week, and 30.26% higher than July 21 (10133.33 yuan / ton).

At the beginning of the week (August 17), the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises was 12966.67 yuan / ton. The new factory had a good one-way direction and obvious intention to support the market, and the offer rose. On the 18th, the downstream polyether orders increased, and the delivery of propylene oxide plant was smooth, and the price rose again to 13033.33 yuan / T. on the 20th, the inventory of the factory was low, and the new order was still stable, and the price rose to 13200 yuan / T. at present, the overall pressure of propylene oxide plant was still under no pressure, However, the terminal’s resistance to high price raw materials and worries gradually show, and the downstream new single turns light, and the market mentality is more cautious and wait-and-see.

Regional notes on August 17 to August 21

In Shandong Province, 12650-12800 yuan / ton, 13000-13100 yuan / ton, spot exchange factory

In East China, RMB 13100-13200 / T; RMB 13300-13400 / T; cash delivery

In South China, 12700-12800 yuan / ton, 12900-13000 yuan / ton, spot exchange factory

Upstream propylene, as of August 20, part of the propylene market price in Shandong rose. According to the price chart of business agency, the recent price of propylene fluctuates periodically, and the price range of recent fluctuation has broken through. At the beginning of August, the price was at the high level in the range. Since the end of the week, the price of some enterprises has been slightly up and down. On the 5th, it has been stable. From 6th to 10th, the first round of rising trend of breaking through the range of this month will be started. On the 11th, the prices of some enterprises will be generally stable. On the 14th, the prices of some enterprises will continue to decline. On the 17th, the prices will be stable, and on the 18th, they will rise partially There is an upward trend. The current market turnover is between 6950 yuan / ton and 7250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6950 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers to ship smoothly, inventory without pressure.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of August 20, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol with packaging in mainstream areas was around 12233.33 yuan / ton, up 2.8% compared with the price at the beginning of the month. As of August 20, the downstream flexible foam polyether market price range consolidation, downstream enterprises new order inquiry buying reduced, the actual order is limited.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene oxide analysts of the business agency believe that the recent high price of raw material propylene market, the cost side of the impact is limited, the factory temporarily no pressure, there is a certain support for the price, but the terminal pressure, downstream new orders follow-up and reduce, it is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market will be mainly high-level, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to market information guidance.

Trade name: hydrochloric acid

Latest price (August 17): 335.00 yuan / ton

On August 17, the mixed price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong was temporarily stable, which was in line with the quotation on August 14. The upstream liquid chlorine market is generally in general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid, while the market of silica and ammonium chloride in the downstream is high consolidation, which brings certain support to the price of hydrochloric acid. At the same time, the maintenance of enterprises has increased recently, the supply of hydrochloric acid is relatively tight, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is good. The by-product acid still impacts the market, and the pressure of hydrochloric acid shipment is greater.

Recently, the market price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong area may fluctuate slightly, and the quotation is about 330 yuan / ton.

This week (8.10-8.14), the domestic BDO market was stable. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic BDO market price was 8200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 4.60% month on month and down 12.39% year on year. Most of the manufacturing enterprises implement the listing price in August, and some enterprises set their own prices according to the order size of the market. As of Friday, the spot bulk water negotiation in East China is 7500-7800 yuan / ton, and the barreled water is 8500-9300 yuan / ton (delivered by acceptance). In South China, the bulk water negotiation is 7500-7800 yuan / ton, and the barreled negotiation is 8500-9300 yuan / ton (delivered by acceptance).

Settlement price of some enterprises in July and listing price in August:

enterprise

Settlement in July (bulk water delivery)

Listing in August (bulk water delivery)

Henan energy and Chemical Group Co., Ltd. East China 7700 yuan / ton, South China 7800 yuan / ton, East China 8200 yuan / ton, South China 8300 yuan / ton

Henan Kaixiang Chemical Co., Ltd. East China 7700 yuan / ton, South China 7800 yuan / ton, East China 8200 yuan / ton, South China 8300 yuan / ton

Xinjiang Meike Chemical Co., Ltd. East China 7660 yuan / ton, South China 7760 yuan / ton, 8200 yuan / ton East China, South China 8300 yuan / ton

Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe Chemical Co., Ltd. East China 7700 yuan / ton, South China 7800 yuan / ton, East China 8200 yuan / ton, South China 8300 yuan / ton

Shaanxi Shaanxi Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. East China 7700 yuan / ton, South China 7800 yuan / ton, East China 8200 yuan / ton, South China 8300 yuan / ton

In terms of enterprise devices this week, Ronghe, Xinye and Tianye shut down for maintenance, and the restart time is not determined; Dongyuan parking is expected to restart in mid August; Meike phase I and II load is 60% and phase III is mainly for self use; Tunhe is shut down for maintenance in late July and is expected to restart in mid and late August; and two sets of devices in Kaixiang, Henan Province On July 20, the equipment was restarted one after another, with a load of about 60%; Hecheng Coal Co., Ltd. shut down for a week due to upstream device problems on July 30, and one set of device has been restarted, and the other is planned to restart in mid August; Panjin Dalian is shut down for maintenance on June 10, and the product is expected to be produced on August 14.

Next week, there is a certain positive short-term supply, the factory stand firm attitude, low price reluctant to sell. BDO analysts of business agency predict that the domestic BDO market will fluctuate more narrowly next week.

The center of gravity of international crude oil price moved up, but the domestic refined oil price adjustment stalled on August 7, and the upward range of product oil market was limited. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the gasoline price on August 7 was 5546 yuan / ton, up 1.47% from the beginning of the week; on August 7, the price of diesel oil was 4948 yuan / ton, up 1.32% from the beginning of the week.

In terms of crude oil, the focus of OPEC’s crude oil continued to ease, while the international crude oil market continued to reduce its focus on soft oil. WTI crude oil futures rose 2.89% for the week.

In terms of gasoline, at present, the domestic weather is still hot, the oil used for automobile air conditioning has increased, and the demand for gasoline terminal has increased. In addition, the crude oil change rate in the first ten days of August is in a positive range. The downstream replenishment is more active, and the market transaction is good, which forms a support for the gasoline price. In terms of diesel, the impact of rainfall and flood in some southern regions is gradually weakening, and the terminal demand of diesel is in the recovery period, but the overall demand of diesel market is still lower than that of gasoline market.

In the first ten days of August, the start-up load of refinery decreased slightly. At present, the average start-up load of atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit is about 75%, and the influence of refined oil supply side is not obvious.

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst at the business club, believes that: in the first ten days of August, the international crude oil price showed a fluctuating upward trend; in addition, the high demand of gasoline market and the gradual recovery of diesel market demand, the price of refined oil is expected to rise steadily.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride fell down in August. As of the 7th day, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 4957.5 yuan / ton, which was 1.34% lower than that of 5025 yuan / ton on the first day, and 16.45% lower than that of the first day. The market demand did not improve, and the market price of phthalic anhydride fell.

In the first week of August, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride declined, and the market of phthalic anhydride was in general. In recent years, the downstream demand was poor, the price of o-benzene fluctuated at a low level, the plasticizer line was weak, and the trend of phthalic anhydride price fell. Domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers started operation generally, and the operating rate of phthalic anhydride was about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply was sufficient, and the downstream plasticizer industry procurement was not active. The on-site merchants had a strong wait-and-see mood, and the exchange trading market fell. The price of phthalic anhydride market in East China declined, and the high-end transactions were limited. In East China, the mainstream of neighboring France source negotiation was 4900-5100 yuan / ton, while that of naphthalene process was 4700-4800 yuan / ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China was 4900-5000 yuan / ton, and the phthalic anhydride market was still in a wait-and-see attitude, and the market price of phthalic anhydride fell.

This week, the domestic o-benzene price remained low, and the on-site price remained at 4400 yuan / T. the low price of domestic o-benzene was a big negative effect on the phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the import market of o-benzene in the port area declined, and the external price of o-benzene declined. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation. The detailed list was discussed. In addition, the on-site o-benzene merchants had a strong wait-and-see mood, the low price of o-benzene fluctuated, and the raw material of o-benzene was o-benzene Low price is unfavorable to domestic market price of phthalic anhydride.

At the beginning of August, the DOP market price in the downstream of phthalic anhydride dropped slightly. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic DOP price was 7000 yuan / ton, which was 0.47% lower than the price of 7033.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The price of isooctyl alcohol in the field fell down. DOP device operated stably, the spot supply was sufficient, and the DOP market price was lower. The market of plasticizer industry declined. DOP market quotation was 6800-7100 yuan / ton. The transaction volume of plasticizer in the market decreased, and the downstream market was poor. Affected by bad luck, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride declined slightly.

Generally speaking, under the background of severe epidemic situation, it is very difficult for fuel demand to fundamentally improve. Although the United States and Europe have recently introduced economic stimulus policies, most of them are monetary policies. Due to the particularity of the epidemic situation, it is difficult to solve the problem from the perspective of increasing money supply. Recently, the crude oil price has a rising trend, but the domestic plasticizer industry is depressed, and the market price of phthalic anhydride falls.

In the future, the domestic o-benzene price trend is mainly volatile, but the transaction price of plasticizer is not good, the price of plasticizer has a downward trend, and the downward pressure of DOP market in the future market still exists. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride in August will decrease slightly.

Domestic price trend:

According to statistics, in July, the domestic price of p-xylene was stable. At the beginning of the month, the domestic price was 4800 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the domestic PX market price was 4800 yuan / ton. The price trend was stable, with a year-on-year decline of 31.43%. The external price fluctuation was the main factor for the domestic PX market, and the external price fluctuation had a certain guiding effect on the domestic price.

In recent years, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The domestic PX operating rate is about 60%. Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has put into operation a 600000 ton new unit, Yangzi Petrochemical plant has been running stably, fuhaichuang plant has been operating in one line, Pengzhou petrochemical plant has been running stably, Yangzi Petrochemical plant has been operating normally, Jinling Petrochemical plant has been running smoothly, Qingdao Lidong unit has been operating at full load, Qilu Petrochemical Company has been operating steadily The operation of the unit is stable. The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%. The domestic supply of p-xylene is normal. Affected by crude oil price fluctuation, the domestic PX market price trend is stable. The international crude oil price fluctuated mainly in July, and the external price of PX rose slightly. As of the 30th, the closing price in Asia was 525-527 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 543-545 US dollars / ton CFR China. Recently, the operation rate of PX units in Asia was about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia was normal. The closing price of PX increased slightly in July The price trend of p-xylene market is stable.

With the gradual recovery of the economy and the recovery of crude oil demand, the closing price of the international crude oil price in July remained around $40 / barrel. As of the 30th, the settlement price of the main contract in the WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was at $39.92/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was at $43.25/barrel Although the United States and Europe have recently introduced economic stimulus policies, most of them are monetary policies. Due to the particularity of the epidemic situation, it is difficult to solve the problem of striking demand from the perspective of increasing money supply. At present, the rebalancing of market supply and demand is mainly due to the efforts of oil producing countries to limit production. However, according to the previous agreement reached by OPEC +, the record production reduction will end in July. If OPEC + reduces the share of production reduction, it may further break the balance of the current oil market and increase the pressure on demand. Crude oil prices face the risk of decline, and the market price of p-xylene may drop accordingly.

In July, the price trend of downstream PTA market declined slightly, while the domestic PTA spot market market declined. As of the end of the month, the average price of PTA market was 3570.44 yuan / ton, 1.04% lower than that at the beginning of the month, and 36.16% lower than that at the beginning of the month. In July, the domestic PTA market was weak, new units were put into operation, terminal demand was weak, supply increased, inventory was high, fundamentals were under pressure, and the price fluctuated downward. At the end of the month, the cost side support and terminal demand were on bargain hunting, and the tail showed a slight recovery. Affected by the price decline of downstream PTA market, the domestic p-xylene market price trend was temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, an analyst at Px, a business agency, thinks that the crude oil price has the risk of falling in the near future. In addition, the domestic and foreign trade of the terminal has been recovering slowly, and the order performance is unstable. At present, the raw material procurement is mainly required. If the follow-up orders cannot be followed up in time, the market price of p-xylene in August is expected to decrease slightly.

In July, the domestic phenol market first suppressed and then rose, with an overall downward trend. According to the monitoring data of business agency, on July 1, 2020, the average price of phenol in China was 7150 yuan / ton, and on July 31, it was 5800 yuan / ton, with the market down by 18.88%. In the middle of July, it dropped to the lowest point, and the average offer in the national market was 5650 yuan / ton. Among them, the mainstream East China market declined from 6850 yuan / ton on July 1 to 5400 yuan / ton on July 16, and 5700 yuan / ton as of July 31. On the whole, the phenol market fell in July.

Trend chart of average price of phenol in the national market in 2020

Trend chart of phenol commodity index in East China

The overall decline of the market in July was mainly due to the sluggish demand for terminals and the poor procurement of terminal factories, which just needed to be followed up, and the market confidence was not optimistic. However, the domestic phenol Market is relatively sufficient, and the market is still difficult to get rid of the downward trend under the game of supply and demand.

The decline in demand is the main reason for phenol’s downward trend, and the main reason for the stagnation at the end of the month. According to statistics, the bisphenol a plant downstream of phenol has been started in 60%. The 150000 T / a bisphenol a plant of Sinopec No.3 well will be shut down on July 20. It is expected that the BPA plant in South Asia will be shut down for maintenance on July 18, and the plant will start operation in late August. In addition, the 135000 T / a BPA plant of Changchun Chemical Co., Ltd. will be shut down for two weeks in July. Another important downstream phenolic resin industry started to maintain stable, operating rate fluctuations. To sum up, the phenol market demand side was relatively weak and the support was insufficient. When the market went down to about 5500 yuan / T, the market stopped falling. Although there was a short-term positive stimulation from the bisphenol a market, the more important thing was that the high-level inventory of the shippers was not high, and the overall market price supporting intention was relatively strong. Therefore, the market continued to rise several times in the middle and late July, but the terminal market did not buy more Just need Inventory, the market is in a stalemate.

In July, the phenol market continued to fall sharply in the early stage, but after the middle of the month, the market was in a deadlock, and the upward support was insufficient. The market was in a dilemma and ended in a weak end at the end of the month. Now the phenol Market is in a weak and weak state. The main domestic supply is sufficient. First, the port replenishment is relatively sufficient. In July, a large number of phenol from Thailand, Singapore, Saudi Arabia and South Korea arrived in Hong Kong. At present, about 8000 tons of phenol from Thailand arrived in Hong Kong in early August. On the whole, the port volume is relatively moderate and the replenishment is relatively sufficient. The second is the high operating rate of domestic factories. The recent start-up situation of domestic factories is as follows. It can be seen from the figure below that except Sinopec three well unit is still under maintenance, other units are operating at full capacity. In August, Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 650000 T / a phenol ketone unit is expected to be put into operation, and the social supply is expected to be very sufficient.

Recent maintenance status of phenol ketone plants in China

From the perspective of business agencies, in August, at present, the operating rate of phenol plants in China has reached a high level. At the end of August, Sinopec Mitsui phenol ketone plant will also resume production. Although some ports have delayed arrival, they are expected to arrive in the warehouse to replenish port inventory in the short term. In August, the factory will implement new contracts, but the demand side is difficult to improve greatly, and the overall downturn is expected The market is expected to continue to decline in early August, and the price space in East China is expected to be 5400 yuan / T.