1、 Price trend

This week, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong rose, from 2060.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2126.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 3.24%, 28.89% year-on-year. Overall, the urea market rose this week, with the urea commodity index at 98.91 on February 5.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. Yangmei plain urea quoted 2150 yuan / ton this weekend, up 90 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2110 yuan / ton this weekend, up 60 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 2120 yuan / ton this weekend, up 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

On the demand side, the agricultural procurement in the mainstream areas is cautious, and there is an appropriate amount of fertilizer preparation. Affected by the air pollution control, some plate enterprises shut down, the starting load of compound fertilizer enterprises is not high, and the industrial demand is limited. On the supply side, some gas head enterprises plan to resume production, and urea production is gradually increasing.

Internationally, the international urea price has soared since January, and the price in some regions has risen to the highest level in recent years, and the price is still expected to rise in the short term. The rise of international urea price has helped to increase the domestic urea export price. At present, the export price of urea is basically in line with the domestic price. Affected by the continuous rise of international urea price, the domestic urea price is not high either It’s going up.

From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain: the overall price of upstream products of urea this week fell greatly: the price of liquefied natural gas dropped sharply, from 4183.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3226.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a decrease of 22.87%, a year-on-year increase of 4.42%; the price of liquid ammonia this week was temporarily stable, with a quotation of 3383.33 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 23.33%. Melamine in the downstream of urea rose this week, from 7033.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7200.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 2.37%, 21.35% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, urea cost support is weak this week.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of February, the urea market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand is general, the industrial demand is limited, the urea supply is increasing, the international urea price is rising, and the domestic urea market is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term.