Price Trend

This week’s lead market (06.10-06.14) shocks. The average domestic market price is 16,181.25 yuan per ton at the beginning of the week and 16,187.50 yuan per ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 0.04%.

On June 14, the lead commodity index was 98.52, up 0.27 points from yesterday, down 26.48% from the peak of 134.01 points in the cycle (2016-11-29), and up 32.01% from the low of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Trend Analysis

Domestic market: This week spot lead market shocks, the mainstream trading range is 16050-16250 yuan/ton. The downstream consumer downturn is difficult to pull the market transaction, the transaction is light, battery terminal purchase is limited, cautious wait-and-see. Some refineries will continue to be repaired this week. In the trade market, the mainstream quotation of Shanghai brand lead maintained at 16150-16350 yuan/ton. The main traded brands are in Jinsha, South, Murong, etc. Yuguang, Wanyang, etc., mainly in long single trades.

Non-ferrous industry: On Friday, non-agricultural data exceeded expectations, superimposed inflation was mild, Fed interest rate cut expectations were warming, US dollar was low at 96.451, and domestic top-level announced infrastructure financing incentives. Although external uncertainty increased, confidence in expanding domestic demand remained unchanged, market sentiment was boosted, and basic metals generally recovered from a low position.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Next week, the most sensitive market is the decision of the Federal Reserve Conference on Interest Rate. The market awaits the guidance of the US dollar. When domestic metals enter the June long order delivery period after the month change, the activity of spot futures may be significantly improved. However, some metal items with the risk of warehousing extrusion may temporarily subside and return to rationality. It is anticipated that the stable trend of spot lead prices will dominate next week.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the market of powdered ammonium rose steadily this month, with an average price of 2150/ton at the beginning of the month and 2183 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a slight increase in price.

II. Market Analysis

Product: By the end of May, the enterprise is still carrying out the pre-order. The market price is about 2000-2200 yuan/ton. Although the market price does not fluctuate greatly, the downstream customers’purchasing demand is not high, the market is weak, and the new order turnover is slightly small, which will maintain stable operation in the short term. At present, 60% of the mainstream ammonium powder factory quoted 2200-2400 yuan/ton in Hubei area, maintaining stable operation as a whole; Henan market maintained stable operation, 55% of ammonium powder factory quoted 2000 yuan-2100 yuan/ton, stable start-up; Anhui market maintained stable operation, 55% of ammonium powder factory quoted 2000 yuan-2200 yuan/ton, stable start-up. Most enterprises have normal operation of equipment, normal orders and normal delivery.

Industry chain: The price of upstream raw material phosphoric acid market declined slightly, and the volume of new single transaction was general. Sulphur prices have fallen and supplies are modest. The demand for ammonium in downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is weak.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of business association monoammonium phosphate believe that the overall starting rate of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is low, the demand is weak, and the price of Monoammonium market is stable in the short term.

According to statistics, domestic hydrofluoric acid prices rose in May, with a price of 1,1530 yuan/ton at the end of the month, 9.03% higher than that of 10,575 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 22.55% higher than that of the previous year.

Products: In May, the price of hydrofluoric acid rose as a whole. In recent years, the domestic supply of hydrofluoric acid has been slightly tight and the market has improved. The main reason is that the starting rate of domestic refrigerant industry devices has increased slightly. The demand for hydrofluoric acid upstream raw materials has increased, and the supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot is tight. Enterprises reflect that the market of hydrofluoric acid on the spot is better and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has risen. By the end of the month, the main stream of domestic negotiations on hydrofluoric acid in Fujian was 11,000-11,500 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Shandong was 1,100 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Jiangxi was 11,000-12,000 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in Inner Mongolia was 11,000-11,500 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The price trend of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid rose in May. The price of fluorite was 2962.5 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price trend of fluorite rose by 4.50% in May. The fluorite plant started to work normally recently. The supply of fluorite is a little tight as a whole, but the fluorite market is greatly affected by environmental protection, the supply of fluorite in the field is a little tight, the price of fluorite in some factories is rising, and the price of fluorite market is a little tight. The latter goes up. Recent downstream refrigerant trading market has improved, downstream refrigerant product units start-up rate is normal, upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand increases, refrigerant market trading market is general, R22 refrigerant plant surface start-up situation is not high, the main production enterprise bulk water out-of-factory offer price is between 18500-19500 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. This is the case. In addition, the actual demand side of the market is low, and the shipping market trend is general. The domestic market price of R134a has risen slightly, the start-up rate of production enterprises has not changed much, the refrigerant market demand has increased, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal downstream start-up, the market demand for hydrofluoric acid in the upstream has increased slightly, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has increased slightly.

Industry: In May, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid industry started to operate normally, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid products was tight, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid rose.

Recently, the hydrofluoric acid plant started to work normally, the supply of goods in the field is tight, and the price of raw material fluorite maintains an upward trend, which has a positive impact on the hydrofluoric acid market. However, the downstream refrigeration industry has not changed much. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid business association, believes that the price of hydrofluoric acid market will rise slightly in June and the price of hydrofluoric acid will be about 11700 yuan/ton.

On May 28, the fluorite commodity index was 103.73, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.64% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 110.79% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend is rising, the average domestic fluorite price is 2962.5 yuan/ton as of the 29th day. Recently, the domestic fluorite plant started normally, the mine and flotation plant started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is slightly tight, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream is rising recently. For the fluorite market, the price of fluorite market is rising on demand. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream pick-up situation improved, resulting in rising market price trend. As of the 29th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2700-3000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 2800-3100 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2700-3100 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2800-3200 yuan/ton.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in downstream fluorite is rising. As of 29 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 11390 yuan/ton. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general. The demand for fluorite is weakening and the price fluctuation of fluorite is running. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water factory offer price is 18500-19000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal and the price of fluorite is rising. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may rise slightly.

On May 12, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 62.12, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.29% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), and up 28.29% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has been slightly lower, the market of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in eastern China has been weaker, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory pressure continues, high-end transactions are blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiations is 6300-6400 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 6100 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6300-6400 yuan/ton, and the market weakness is shocke The price of phthalic anhydride in China is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, the market is not good, and the price of phthalic anhydride is declining.

Recently, the executive price of the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 6400 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price in the market is 6400 yuan/ton. The quotation is declining, and the port market is general. The upstream raw material mixed xylene price fluctuation maintains stable, the turnover of phthalic acid is general, the port phthalic acid inventory is low, the quotation of phthalic acid external market is temporarily stable, the import phthalic acid cost fluctuation, the actual transaction price is discussed in detail, the upstream price trend declines, and the phthalic anhydride market price maintains weak. DOP price downstream is lower, DOP downstream demand is general, customer procurement enthusiasm is not good, DOP market mainstream transaction price is about 7900 yuan/ton, DOP downstream price is still under pressure, downstream price is slightly lower, demand for upstream phthalic anhydride is limited, phthalic anhydride market price is slightly lower, it is expected that the later market price of phthalic anhydride will be around 6300 yuan/ton.

First, the price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, this week, the domestic phosphorus ore market overall continued to stabilize, mainstream areas more than 30% of the grade phosphorus Ore factory quote range in 390-550 yuan/ton, the average price in 430 yuan/ton or so.

Second, the market analysis Products: This week the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole remains stable mainly.

This week the domestic phosphorus ore prices are as follows: Guizhou region 30% grade phosphorus ore mainstream goods factory with tax quotation 390-450 yuan/ton, Hebei region 30% grade phosphorus ore mainstream factory tax quoted 530 yuan/ton or so; phosphorus ore market equipment normal operation, downstream demand is normal, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole shows the trend of stable operation.

Third, the forecast of the aftermarket Business Society Phosphorus ore analysts believe that the current downstream demand is fair, comprehensive view, by the upstream and downstream market impact, May mid-April phosphate market prices will still be stable, price fluctuations are small, or there is a small increase possible, the specific phosphorus ore market trend also depends on downstream demand and market availability and other factors to decide.

According to the survey data of business associations, the average market price in East China is about 1983.33 yuan per ton. The light soda commodity index on April 27 was 101.71, which was the same as yesterday. It was 13.70% lower than the peak of 117.86 points in the cycle (2017-11-21), and 61.06% higher than the low of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

Domestic soda market is mainly stable, the price is not adjusted for the time being, and enterprises are on the sidelines. The overall trend of soda ash in Shandong is temporarily stable. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1900-1950 yuan/ton, while the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 2000-2100 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is more flexible. It is expected that the latter stage of soda ash price will be more narrow-range consolidation market operation. The overall trend of soda ash in Hebei is stable. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1950-2000 yuan/ton. The mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1950-2000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is more flexible. It is expected that the price of soda ash will run smoothly in the later period. Downstream more on-demand goods, market stability is the main.

Soda analysts believe that: Soda market at the end of the month downstream wait-and-see purchasing, the trend is stable. The downstream demand performance is general. Some enterprises have sufficient pre-stocking. At present, most of them are purchasing on demand, and the inventory of soda enterprises is on the low side as a whole. It is expected that the domestic soda market will operate steadily in a multi-dimensional way in the short term, mainly on a wait-and-see basis, and specifically on the downstream market demand.

On April 21, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 63.75, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.93% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), and up 31.66% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has maintained a low trend, the market of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in eastern China has weakened, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory pressure has continued, high-end transactions have been blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiations is 6500-6600 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 6300 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6400-6600 yuan/ton, and the market weak The price of phthalic anhydride in China is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, the market is not good, and the price of phthalic anhydride is declining.

Recently, the executive price of the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 6700 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price in the market is 6700 yuan/ton. The quotation is stable and the port market is general. The upstream raw material mixed xylene price is stable, the turnover of phthalic anhydride is general, the stock of phthalic anhydride in port is low, the price of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, the cost of imported phthalic anhydride is rising, the actual transaction price is discussed in detail, the upstream price trend is stable, and the market price of phthalic anhydride remains weak. DOP prices in the downstream are lower. Recently, in the DOP market in Zhejiang, merchants’quotations have maintained 8200-8300 yuan/ton, while downstream prices have slightly declined. Demand for upstream phthalic anhydride is limited, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is slightly lower. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride in the later period will be around 6550 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the average price of propylene oxide in the market as of April 19 was 10,900 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream price of propylene oxide in the market is 10,700 yuan/ton to 11,200 yuan/ton, which is 0.31% higher than that at the beginning of the week.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: Propylene oxide Market is stable this week. As of April 19, the cash delivery price of Wanhua Chemistry Shandong Mainstream Market was 10,900 yuan/ton, and that of East China Mainstream Market was 11,200 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: This week, some downstream plants of propylene oxide were slightly adjusted by external impact load, but the overall market supply and demand is not unbalanced, we need to continue to pay attention to the start-up changes of domestic upstream and downstream devices.

3. Future market forecast:

According to business associations, the market is still adjusting steadily in the short term.

Internationally, Venezuela’s and Iran’s crude oil supply declined, Libya’s situation was unstable, and U.S. crude oil stocks showed a downward trend. Last night, international oil prices rebounded in both directions. The reference price of toluene in the Korean market is about 710 US dollars per ton, up 7 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day.

Nowadays, the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises in South China has been lowered, and other areas are stable. Toluene market inquiry is the main, the general turnover, port inventory stability, overall downstream demand is not high. Overall TRADERS’prices have increased slightly, and the latest quotation is about 5400-5450 yuan/ton.