I. price trend
This week, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to decline. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone producers at the beginning of the week was 8233 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week was 7900 yuan / ton, down 4.05% in the week. Compared with the same period last month, the price fell 10.99% month on month, down 39.23% year on year.
II. Market analysis
Product: this week, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to decline. At the beginning of the week, the peripheral news was short, the listing price of raw material pure benzene was reduced by 150 yuan / ton, and the quotation of mainstream factories was continuously reduced due to inventory and shipment pressure, but the price of downstream caprolactam was reduced to suppress the purchase of chemical fiber single. On Thursday, Shenyuan and other caprolactam factories purchased large orders, and the market stopped falling and stabilized. Considering the maintenance of Hualu Hengsheng unit at the weekend, we will continue to pay attention to the raw material cost and the purchase of downstream chemical fiber orders. In terms of price, 7700-7800 yuan / ton cash bulk water will be sent for the main offer of cyclohexanone market in North China and Shandong, 8100-8300 yuan / ton cash in East China and 8300-8400 yuan / ton cash in South China.
Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene, domestic pure benzene market rose. The price of external market is mainly rising, and CFR China’s price rise drives the domestic market. Crude oil prices rose at the end of the day, the East China market opened higher, the market price continued to rise, and the downstream styrene also showed a rising trend. However, downstream demand remains weak, and the market is generally positive. The downstream recovery speed is less than expected, and the buying enthusiasm is not good. It is estimated that the short-term pure benzene market will be consolidated within the range.
Caprolactam: the domestic caprolactam market continues to be weak, the atmosphere in the market continues to be light, the upstream pure benzene market continues to be weak, the cost support is limited, the low-cost shipment of the downstream polymerization plant has improved, but the transaction is still more rigid, the polymerization plant part still has certain inventory pressure, the raw material purchase is cautious and on demand, the wait-and-see mood of the industry remains unchanged, the short-term domestic caprolactam market is still or partial. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of terminal receiving mood and the dynamic of manufacturers. The main quotation of East China solid market is 12100-12600 yuan / ton, and the cash will be delivered. The transaction volume of East China liquid market is around 11800-12000 yuan / ton, which will be delivered by acceptance.
Adipic acid: the domestic adipic acid market is weak and volatile, the weak atmosphere in the market is diffuse, the downstream demand is sluggish and hard to change, the inquiry continues to be light, the mentality of traders is short, the initial inventory is sold at a low price, and it is expected that the adipic acid market will be narrowed in the future.
III. future forecast
In terms of enterprises, Hualu Hengsheng overhauls, industry operating rate drops, raw material pure benzene, crude oil uncertainty and Sino US trade relations will still affect the market, but the recovery of terminal demand is slow, and the market is expected to fluctuate next week. The operation rate of downstream caprolactam was maintained. It is necessary to pay attention to the operation of the unit and the demand of the chemical fiber single. The analysis of cyclohexanone in the business community is expected that there will be pressure on the domestic caprolactam market or internal finishing in the next week.