Coking coal customs clearance is expected to narrow in October, and prices may continue to be strong in the latter period.

On September 29, the coking coal commodity index was 112.79, which was the same as yesterday. It was 7.19% lower than the cyclical peak of 121.53 points (2019-03-12), and 151.15% higher than the lowest point of 44.91 on January 28, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-01 to date).

In September 30th, the domestic coking coal market prices remained stable. The market prices of coking coal (Jiao Jingmei) in Tangshan, Hebei were temporarily stable, the mainstream price was about 1530 yuan / ton, and the coking coal market was still acceptable. The market price of coking coal (Jiao Jingmei) is temporarily stable, the mainstream price is about 1515 yuan / ton, and the coking coal market is acceptable. The market price of Jiao Mei (main market) is temporarily stable, the mainstream price is about 1530 yuan / ton, and the transaction of refining Jiao Mei market is acceptable.

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The domestic coking coal market is stable before the beginning of the summer, and is affected by the replenishment of downstream stocks. The sales situation is still good, and the quality resources are basically free from inventory. Before the national day, the number of coal mines and coal washery factories is much larger than before, and the supply market is tight before the national holidays. This is an important reason for the relatively strong price of coking coal. Oven stops production more, coke demand has declined significantly, the initial increase has been temporarily over, after the festival, attention should be paid to the re-production of blast furnace in steel plant. To sum up, the impact of the national day limit on the production of coal mines will reduce the supply side of the supply side, and have a certain support for the stable price of the coking coal market. But considering the limited production of the downstream coking steel enterprises and the downstream inventory problem, the market has not seen a fundamental rise.

In terms of demand, power plant consumption remains stable, and the inventory pressure of power plant remains at the middle and high levels. With the passing of the summer electricity peak, the inventory pressure of coal stockpiling is likely to increase.

The market outlook shows that the domestic coking coal mine has stable operation rate and stable output. Although China’s domestic coal import policy has been limited recently, the import of coking coal still shows a growth trend from the point of view of customs clearance data. Therefore, the market is strong before the holiday. With the continuous increase of the policy intensity, the delayed effect will appear or the coking coal clearance volume is expected to shrink. On the other hand, considering the relaxation of traffic control after the festival, the local supply pressure will be eased to a certain extent, which also has some shortcomings. It is estimated that the coking coal market after the festival may maintain a strong trend of shocks.

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