According to the monitoring of the business association, the market of domestic liquid ammonia tends to be stable in the middle and late ten days, with a slight decline in some areas. In the week of 20th, the price of liquid ammonia didn’t change much. Most of the manufacturers maintained the price range of last week, while most of the manufacturers still reported stable in the weekend. Some of them went down 50 yuan / ton. Some of the enterprises in Shandong, the main production area, were stable, some of them fell 50 yuan / ton, and the price in Northwest China remained stable. At present, some of them are stable The ammonia quantity is in excess, especially some manufacturers in Shandong Province have loose supply of goods, and the pressure of enterprises’ shipment is increasing, but the manufacturers with large ammonia quantity are mainly stable in price, and the main quotation in Shandong Province is 2950-3050 yuan / ton.

The price of liquid ammonia in North China is mainly stable, and there is plenty of ammonia in the region. At present, the supply pressure has not increased significantly. The lack of demand is still a potential factor for the increase of ammonia. In the short term, the shipping pressure may continue to increase. There are many downriver stoppages. The main quotation in North China is 2970 yuan / ton.

The increasing pressure of environmental protection in Hebei region has led to the majority of enterprises limiting production. The shutdown of large downstream enterprises, such as China and Afghanistan, has led to weak demand in the downstream. There are many enterprises accumulating inventory, and the price has not changed significantly. The mainstream quotation in Hebei is 2850-3000 yuan / ton.

Over the weekend, the central China region weakened slightly, and the delivery pressure in Hubei region was obvious. Part of Henan region was affected by environmental protection pressure, and the price gave way to more profits. At present, the liquid ammonia market is full of negative atmosphere, weak operation, and the mainstream quotation in Henan is 3000 yuan / ton up and down.

In the future, the business community believes that the weak market tends to stabilize in the short term, which is mainly affected by the high ammonia volume in most regions, especially the environmental protection pressure is large, and the downstream operating rate is further reduced. The recent market does not exclude the possibility of further exploration.

I. price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus fell slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 18855 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 18250 yuan / ton, with a slight drop of 1.62% in the week.

II. Market analysis

Product: yellow phosphorus market price fell slightly this week. Downstream replenishment enthusiasm is not high, market procurement is not warm. At present, the main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 18000 yuan / ton. The main quotation in Sichuan is about 18500-18100 yuan / ton. The overall market is light, and traders mainly wait and see.

Industry chain: this week, the phosphorus ore market continues to be consolidated and operated. The market is still weak. Many mining enterprises have limited production and quoted prices. The prices were not adjusted years ago. A small part of the mine prices fluctuated slightly by 30%. The price of grade phosphorus ore was reduced by 10-40 yuan / ton. The market as a whole is still running smoothly. After the price of coke rose by 50 yuan / ton in the second round, the supply of domestic spot market of coke declined due to environmental protection, production restriction, capacity reduction and other factors, and the market mentality was optimistic. At present, the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market of Sichuan Province is 2030 yuan / ton, and that in Liupanshui coke market of Guizhou Province is 2270 yuan / ton. The downstream phosphoric acid market is mainly for finishing and operation. At present, the hot process phosphoric acid is generally shipped, and the wet process is relatively good. The downstream starts the year-end stock stage. Phosphoric acid market as a whole was flat, with prices down slightly.

III. future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of business and social chemical branch, the price of yellow phosphorus market fell slightly this week, the overall market of yellow phosphorus was light, and the downstream demand was insufficient, so it was difficult to form a strong support for the market. It is expected that the weak operation of yellow phosphorus price will be the main factor.

I. Market Overview

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite market is stable this week. The weekend price is 2883.33 yuan / ton, which is the same as the price of 2883.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decline of 20.64%. Recently, fluorite price is mainly volatile.

II. Market analysis

Product: the price trend of fluorite in China has been fluctuating this week. Recently, the supply of fluorite in China has decreased. However, the demand for fluorite in the downstream hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant industries has not improved significantly. The price of fluorite has been fluctuating, and the price has not changed much. The price of fluorite in the fluorite market is average. The downstream is purchased on demand. The spot supply of fluorite in the market is normal, and the price trend of fluorite in the market is stable 。 By the end of the week, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2800-3000 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2800-3100 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2800-3000 yuan / ton, and the trend of fluorite price was stable temporarily.

Industry chain: the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite rose this week. As of the end of the week, the ex factory price of hydrofluoric acid was 10240 yuan / ton, and the overall price of hydrofluoric acid rose by 1.89% this week. The rise of the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream was a good factor in the fluorite market, and the price of domestic fluorite market remained volatile. In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal has increased slightly. At present, the automobile industry has entered the cycle of goods preparation. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The market price of R22 in China has increased. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production unit is still not high. The supply capacity of the market source has declined. The downstream air conditioning manufacturer has maintained the demand, but the supply is tight. The price of domestic large enterprises is mainly Flow rose to 14500-17500 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China has increased slightly, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises has maintained a low level. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stock cycle, and the demand for R134a has slightly improved. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, and the price has slightly increased. The downstream is still on-demand procurement, and the price trend of fluorite market is mainly stable.

Industry: this week, the fluorite industry started to operate generally, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid rose slightly, the spot supply of fluorite products fell, and the market price of fluorite remained volatile.

III. future forecast

In the future, the installation of domestic fluorite manufacturers has declined recently, the market price of downstream hydrofluoric acid industry has risen slightly, and the market of downstream refrigeration industry has improved. Chen Ling, an analyst of fluorite in the business agency, thinks that the price of fluorite may rise slightly in the later stage, and the price may be around 2900 yuan / ton.

I. price trend

Market analysis of potash products

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of potash fluctuated and consolidated this week. The average factory price of light potash in China at the weekend was 6375.00 yuan / ton, including tax. The current price fell 7.94% year on year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the market of potash fluctuated and consolidated. The price consolidation of upstream raw material potassium chloride has no supporting effect on the price of potash. The market of potash is stable with little fluctuation. At the same time, the demand side is weak, and the price increase is restrained. The price adjustment range is not large. Part of the manufacturer’s devices are shut down for maintenance, the market momentum of low inventory purchase is general, and the quotation is mainly consolidated. According to the statistics of the business agency: in December, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate is about 6200-6500 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

III. future forecast

Potash analysts of the business association believe that the trading atmosphere of potash market is cold and difficult to close. In the short term, the price of potash may be mainly consolidation, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see, mainly affected by the demand side.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on November 29, the comprehensive price of BPA was 9600.00 yuan / ton, which was just needed to be purchased in the downstream, with general volume and low negotiation focus.

II. Cause analysis

In terms of products: the domestic bisphenol a market today has seen a decrease in low prices, a flat trading atmosphere at the end of the month, no pressure on the inventory of various manufacturers, a firm offer, no increase in market demand, and a low overall turnover rate.

III. future forecast

Bisphenol A analysts think: in the short term, bisphenol a market will be reorganized and operated.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of DOP fell in shock this week, while the overall plasticizer DOP fell slightly. As of November 29, the price of DOP in East China was 7366.67 yuan / ton, down 16.66 yuan / ton, or 0.23%, compared with 7383.33 yuan / ton in the weekend (November 24), down 18.82% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product analysis

Commodity name ﹣ port ﹣ 11.29 price ﹣ 11.22 price ﹣ price type ﹣ unit

DOP China 930.00 920.00 CFR USD / ton

DOP Southeast Asia 1150.00 1150.00 CFR USD / ton

© November 2019 business club www.100ppi.com

As can be seen from the table, the price of DOP external market rose this week, and DOP market was good. This week, the price of DOP in China is 930 US dollars / ton, up 10 US dollars / ton; the price of DOP in Southeast Asia is 1150 US dollars / ton, up 10 US dollars / ton, the price of plasticizer DOP is up, the domestic plasticizer market is good.

Analysis of industrial chain

In terms of raw materials, this week, the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride remained stable, the price of octanol rose slightly, and the price of octanol rose by 0.72%; the overall cost of DOP remained stable, which weakened the market advantage of DOP. The price of o-phthalic anhydride remained stable, the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride fell, and the overall price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride fell, which was bad for DOP market. In the future, the upward momentum of DOP market weakened, the downward pressure increased, and DOP market fell.

In terms of downstream demand, PVC market surged 3.26% this week, with limited demand in the downstream of DOP, but the market recovered. In the future, DOP market is good, but due to the small growth of PVC, the momentum of DOP is general.

III. future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP of business agency, the price of raw material isooctanol of plasticizer DOP this week was basically stable, the price of phthalic anhydride of o-phthalic acid remained stable, the price of phthalic anhydride of naphthalene phthalic acid fell, the overall cost of DOP fell, and the market advantage of DOP weakened and the negative increased. On the downstream side, PVC prices kept rising this week. The demand for DOP downstream was limited but the market was favorable. The DOP market had an upward momentum but the momentum was weakened and the downward pressure increased. In general, plasticizer DOP market downward pressure increases, DOP demand is limited, plasticizer DOP market has upward momentum but the momentum is weakened, and it is expected that the future DOP market will be weak and stable.

I. price trend

According to a large number of data on the business club’s list, the end of the month fell slightly after the shock rise of pure benzene flattened. On October 31, the listing price of pure benzene was 5000-5400 yuan / ton, and on November 30, the listing price of pure benzene was 5250-5351 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.76% compared with the end of last month.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Crude oil: this month’s crude oil overall shows a trend of shock rise. WTI oil price is 7.25% higher than last month, Brent oil price is 6.04% higher than last month. Negative: trade risk, US crude oil inventory increase. Good: OPEC may continue to extend production reduction, economic data will be good, and crude oil inventory in the United States will be reduced.

2. Product: this month, the range of pure benzene fluctuates in a narrow range. This month, the tight domestic spot supply of pure benzene led to the short supply, which led to a slight recovery in the price of pure benzene; the port inventory continued to be below 100000 tons, and the port to ship situation was also very limited, the market low-cost resources were hard to find, and the mentality of reluctant to sell increased.

3. Downstream: this month, the downstream styrene fell in shock, down 1.98% month on month. This month, the aniline plant recovered its load, the supply increased, and the price fell, down 19.11% month on month. The downstream products of pure benzene generally have low profits, such as caprolactam, styrene and other products have lost money, which is bad for pure benzene.

III. future forecast

1. Crude oil: in the later stage, the international oil price will continue to fluctuate at a high level, but the downside risk is large. There are signs at the end of the month that OPEC and other oil producers are reluctant to cut production further at the December meeting, and oil prices are likely to decline.

2. Domestic and foreign markets: at present, the weak downstream demand of domestic pure benzene will still restrict the market recovery.

Comprehensive consideration, it is predicted that the short-term pure benzene market is difficult to return to temperature, and the weak operation is the main one. But the stock up before the Spring Festival will form a good support for the market.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, this week’s DOP price adjustment, the overall plasticizer DOP market remained stable. As of November 25, the price of DOP in East China is 7366.67 yuan / ton, which is stable compared with that at the beginning of the week (November 18); as of November 22, the price of DOP in East China is 7383.33 yuan / ton, which is up 0.23% or 20.32% compared with that at the beginning of the week (November 18), which is 7366.67 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

Product analysis

Commodity name port price 11.22 price 11.15 price 11.8 price 11.1 price type unit

DOP China 920.00 920.00 920.00 920.00 920.00 CFR USD / ton

DOP Southeast Asia 1150.00 1140.00 1140.00 1130.00 CFR USD / ton

© November 2019 business club www.100ppi.com

As can be seen from the table, DOP’s external quotation rose in November and DOP’s market was favorable. Last week, the external quotation of DOP in China was stable; the external quotation of DOP in Southeast Asia was up $10 / ton last week, the external quotation of DOP plasticizer was up, and the domestic market of plasticizer was good.

Analysis of industrial chain

In terms of raw materials, this week, the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride rose in shock, the price of octanol rose in shock, and the price of phthalic anhydride and isooctanol rose in shock. The overall cost of DOP rose, which was good for DOP market, the driving force of DOP market rose, and DOP market rose in shock.

 
In terms of downstream demand, this week’s PVC market fluctuated and rose, while the downstream demand of DOP recovered, and the future DOP market was favorable. However, due to the small growth rate of PVC, the momentum of DOP’s rise was general.

III. future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP of business agency, the prices of raw materials phthalic anhydride and isooctanol of plasticizer DOP rose sharply this week, the cost of DOP rose, and the market of DOP was favorable. Downstream, this week, PVC prices maintained a rising trend, DOP demand is good, DOP market has a rising power but limited power. Generally speaking, the downward pressure of plasticizer DOP market weakens and the upward momentum increases, the demand of DOP rises, and the market of plasticizer DOP has the upward momentum and the momentum increases, but the upward momentum is difficult to support the sharp recovery of DOP market, and it is expected that the future DOP market will mainly fluctuate and maintain stability.

I. price trend

On November 14, the TDI commodity index was 64.02, up 0.7 points from yesterday, down 74.19% from 248.02, the highest point in the cycle (2016-10-19), and up 6.40% from 60.17, the lowest point on February 22, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: according to the statistics of the business agency, the price trend of TDI in the East China market rose on the 14th, with an average price of 12100.00 yuan / ton, or 1.11% increase. The TDI market in the East China region was narrowed, with a depressed market atmosphere, few transactions, divergent mentality, disordered market quotation and low price quotation. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with bills is 11300-11400 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills is 11600 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: compared with the previous trading day, the price of toluene of Sinopec’s north and East China enterprises was raised by 150-200 yuan / ton. The listing price of Shandong refining enterprises was raised today, about 5700 yuan / ton, and that of traders in East China was raised, about 5800 yuan / ton. In terms of nitric acid, at present, the price trend in East China is stable, the weak quotation of manufacturers tends to be stable, and the prices of some manufacturers are slightly reduced. Nitric acid market performance is not good, market demand is still weak, weak finishing is expected in the later period.

Industry: the domestic TDI market is weak, the overall atmosphere in the market is still weak, the volume of transactions is insufficient, sporadic orders follow-up, the industry is not in a good mood for the future market, the mentality is different, the negotiation is low-end shipment, individual low-cost heard.

III. price forecast

TDI analysts of business agency think that the domestic TDI market is weak and volatile in the later period, and pay attention to the guidance of factory news.

I. price trend

This week’s propane market fell first and then rose. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propane market was 4025 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 4025 yuan / ton, with the week’s rise and fall of 0%. The price mainly fluctuated in a narrow range, 8.26% lower than the same period last year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the domestic propane market fell first and then rose this week, with a general trading atmosphere. As of November 15, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped using propane for its own use, and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group Co., Ltd. had no propane in stock, so the price was not offered temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 4000 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4000 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4120 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4130 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 4050 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of propane of Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4100 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3950 yuan / ton.

This week, the propane market adjusted sideways, and the trading atmosphere slightly improved. At the beginning of the week, the international crude oil fell continuously, and the trend of the liquefied gas market was weak. In addition, the intake gas resources were abundant and the price was low, which hit the enthusiasm of the downstream market. The market transaction atmosphere was weak, and the demand was average. The main enterprises delivered profits and the price fell slightly. Later in the week, with the slight increase of international crude oil and the decrease of propane price, the mentality of downstream replenishment was stimulated. The trading atmosphere was gradually improved. The market rose and fell mutually, and Shandong market recovered after the slight increase.

Industrial chain:

Liquefied gas: the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market rose steadily this week, with no obvious fluctuation. The recovery of liquefied gas market has stimulated the mentality of propane downstream replenishment and driven the atmosphere of propane transaction. At the beginning of the week, international crude oil continued to fall. In the face of news that the market continued to be bullish, petrochemical enterprises cut prices, and most manufacturers followed suit. The downstream demand is flat, and the upstream traders mainly deliver goods. Thursday’s slight rise in crude oil boosted the market, but in the north of the heating season, terminal demand did not improve substantially. After the price reduction, the shipment has improved, the inventory pressure has been eased, and the manufacturers have increased slightly.

Saudi Aramco announced in November CP that all of the propanbutane had been increased. Propane rose to $430 / ton, up $10 / ton from last month; butane rose $445 / ton, up $10 / ton from last month. The c.i.f. cost of long-term propane is about 3844 yuan / ton, and butane is about 3916 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 45th week of 2019 (11.11-11.15), there are 19 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are hydrochloric acid (19.18%), chloroform (12.55%) and R22 (4.80%). There are 27 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products decreased were epichlorohydrin (- 9.22%), aniline (- 7.50%), titanium dioxide (- 3.58%). This week’s average was 0.18%.

III. future forecast

The propane analyst of the business agency thinks that: at present, the price is relatively low, coupled with the gradual cooling of the weather, the downstream replenishment cycle is shortened, the manufacturer’s mentality is relatively strong, and the deep decline intention is not strong. The market is basically stable, with the upstream discharging and shipping, and the downstream replenishing as required. It is expected that the trend will be stable and rising next week.