1、 Price trend

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of December 27, the average price of the domestic BDO market was 9636 yuan / ton, down 1.47% month on month, down 6.45% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the focus of domestic BDO market was adjusted in a narrow range. In the early stage, the on-site load was low, the transportation in some areas was slow, the spot supply to the market was small, the factory continued to offer at a high level, the supply of low-end goods was reduced, and the focus of mainstream negotiation was slightly higher. Although crane coal has been restarted, its load is not high, and it mainly delivers contract orders, with no spot delivery. In the near future, Tianye has a driving plan, which coincides with the trial period of new sales models such as the hanging of settlement and unified marketing. The downstream of the main force should wait and see rationally and carefully wait for the guidance of clear news. At present, in addition to PBT commencement, other downstream multi-dimensional rigid demand; and the Spring Festival is coming, some downstream factories will have holidays in advance, and the demand side support is insufficient. At the same time, with the start of the negative, the supply side of the good weakened, the industry to see the stability of the future dominant mentality.

In terms of devices, this week, Tianye’s 210000 T / a device was shut down, and there is a restart plan this month, but the exact time is not yet determined; crane coal’s December 15 sunrise products, with a current load of about 50%; black cat’s December 20 restart plan; Chongqing Jianfeng’s December 15 shutdown and overhaul, with a month or so expected; new industry has produced qualified products, but has not yet entered the market. No planned changes have been heard for other devices. The overall market operating rate this week is around 66.6%. (domestic production capacity increases by 60000t / A for Shaanxi black cat and 60000t / A for Xinjiang new industry, and removes 30000 T / A for Shaanxi chemical and Yizheng Dalian long-term parking).

Industry chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol, the domestic methanol price continued to fall this week, with a strong bearish atmosphere in the market. At the beginning of the week, the guiding price in the northwest region dropped by 30-50 yuan / ton to 1850 yuan / ton. However, due to the impact of snowfall, most regions were temporarily closed at high speed, and upstream factories had accumulated inventory, resulting in poor transaction atmosphere. In the second half of the week, the factory had no choice but to make up the freight again.

graph.100ppi.com (500×300)

Calcium carbide: this week, the domestic calcium carbide market increased in a narrow range, the inventory in Wuhai and Ningxia was low, and the enterprise’s rising mentality was gradually enhanced. With the recovery of the price, some devices that were shut down or load reduced in the early stage gradually increased, and the supply increased slightly. 

3、 Future forecast

At present, the long-term delivery in the field is relatively stable, the spot market price is high, and the negotiation focus is high. In addition to PBT start-up in the downstream, other downstream multi-dimensional rigid demand; and the Spring Festival is coming, some downstream factories will have holidays in advance, and the demand side support is insufficient. At the same time, Tianye has a driving plan in the near future, and the main downstream is more cautious to wait and see, waiting for the guidance of clear news. Under the supply and demand game, BDO analysts of the business agency predict that the domestic BDO market will be stronger next week, focusing on the device dynamics and downstream demand changes.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of December 27, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market was 12850 yuan / ton, up 1.58% month on month and 11.02% year on year. The overall market was slightly lower.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the market price of aggregate MDI fell slightly this week, not much. This week, the weekly guidance prices of kostrong and East Cao Ruian kept steady and fell one by one, leading to the confusion of the post market mentality of the industry. Other main factories are still dominated by market control, there is no delivery pressure for the time being, and there are not many shippers in stock. In addition, considering that the settlement price of manufacturers at the end of the month is likely to be high, it is prudent to negotiate delivery. The downstream industry keeps a wait-and-see attitude towards the current “no go” market price, and the intention to stock a large number of goods temporarily is not strong. Near the end of next week, the manufacturers are waiting for the guidance of new moon listing of suppliers. The information expects that the market price will be stable in the next week with little fluctuation. Wait and see the weekly guidance price and downstream delivery of Shanghai Kesi Chuang. In addition, Wanhua Ningbo equipment will be restarted one after another, waiting for the manufacturer’s device announcement.

On the aspect of enterprises, the market news learned that a factory in Shanghai polymerized MDI’s quotation for dealers this week of 12300 yuan / ton, which was stable on a month on month basis. The market was informed that an enterprise in Ruian, Zhejiang Province, reported an aggregate MDI offer of 12600 yuan / ton this week, down from last week.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, the inventory of East China’s ports remained at a low level of around 80000 tons, and the spot supply was still tight. The unexpected shutdown of European devices at the beginning of the week and the increase of downstream demand for pure benzene in the United States led to a sharp rise in the external market of the United States and Europe. The market price is hard to find because the main refineries have the conditions to adjust the price. The negotiated price rises to 6000-6050 yuan / ton. In the second half of the week, the external market fell back rationally, the main refineries failed to adjust the price, the market pull up atmosphere weakened, and the focus fell to 5850-5950 yuan / ton. In the past week, the downstream products of pure benzene, such as styrene and caprolactam, faced losses, which resisted the high price of pure benzene and also restricted the price rise of pure benzene.

Aniline: the domestic aniline market fell slightly. Aniline cost is under great pressure, and the plant is in the stage of loss at present. However, the starting load of downstream enterprises is not high, and most of them mainly consume the raw material inventory in the early stage, so the demand is poor, and the shipment of northern aniline factory is not smooth. But the East China enterprise ships goods primarily, does not have the sales pressure. It is reported that Nanhua has plans to purchase aniline for shipping, so the market price keeps falling in North China.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club view: near the end of next week, the operators are waiting for the new moon listing guidance of the supplier manufacturers. MDI analysts predict that the market price will be stable in the next week with little fluctuation. Wait and see the weekly guidance price and downstream delivery of Shanghai Kesi Chuang. In addition, Wanhua Ningbo equipment will be restarted one after another, waiting for the manufacturer’s device announcement.

1、 Price trend

Recently, the domestic butadiene market is stagnant. As of December 27, the price of butadiene was 8345 yuan / ton, down 3.59% on a month on month basis and 13.40% on a year-on-year basis, according to the monitoring of business club.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: in this cycle, the domestic butadiene market is slightly consolidated, and the market trend is slightly stagnant. In the week, Liaotong chemical suspended online export, and Fushun Petrochemical only sold 240 tons of goods on Thursday. The tightening supply of goods in Northeast China has supported the mentality of some businesses. But Jiutai, Huayu and other manufacturers normally ship goods, and the slightly high price node delivery situation is not good, resulting in a cautious market atmosphere. East China is also temporarily supported by the supply side news, but the market is full of low price news. The market trend continues to be weak in the week, and sporadic high price offers lack of real single support. In the later part of this week, Fushun’s supply of goods was restarted for export, and Zhejiang Petrochemical plant had a short-term commissioning plan, which led to the market’s return to weakness due to market uncertainty.

In terms of plant dynamics, Sinopec East China butadiene price was reduced by 400 yuan / ton in a week, and 8500 yuan / ton was implemented since 23rd; Liaotong chemical butadiene continued to suspend on-line export; Fushun Petrochemical’s export volume of goods sources was 7800-7860 yuan / ton, and the total volume of transactions in a week was 240 tons; Inner Mongolia Jiutai 70000 ton / year butadiene plant was in normal operation, with a quotation of 7600 yuan / ton, stable compared with the same period last week The 100000 t / a oxidative dehydrogenation unit of sippon Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance on December 16 and restarted on December 26, with an offer of 8900 yuan / T; the 100000 t / a oxidative dehydrogenation unit of Nanjing Chengzhi was shut down on the evening of December 22 and restarted on the afternoon of December 25, with a supply contract; according to market news, the 200000 t / a new butadiene extraction unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical is planned to be put into operation this weekend, please continue to pay attention to the details.

Industrial chain: styrene butadiene rubber: in this cycle, the factory price of domestic styrene butadiene rubber sales companies has been falling, with the main decline of 200 yuan / ton, only PetroChina South China and Sinopec East China sales companies haven’t kept pace. As of the receipt of the draft, the main factory supply price of domestic styrene butadiene 1502 is 10800-11100 yuan / ton. In this cycle, the operating rate of domestic styrene butadiene plant is around 5.80% this week; Qilu, Jihua, Fushun, Lanhua, Shenhua, Weitai and Bridgestone styrene butadiene plant are all in normal operation, and two lines of operation are resumed near Yangzi Petrochemical styrene butadiene plant on the 23rd; in addition, Tianjin Lugang, Hangzhou Yibang and Fuxiang chemical styrene butadiene rubber plant continue to stop.

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: in this cycle, the ex factory price of high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of the mainstream domestic sales company fell by 300 yuan / ton compared with the previous cycle; as of the receipt of the manuscript, the ex factory price of high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of the mainstream domestic sales company was around 10800 yuan / ton; Sinopec East China and PetroChina South China sales company did not make any adjustment. In this cycle, the operation rate of domestic high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant is around 60%, the load of Yanshan cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant is not full, other mainstream cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plants in China keep normal operation, and the overall operation rate of high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant is less than that of the previous cycle.

3、 Future forecast

On the positive side, the operation of sporadic devices is not good, and there is a bottom support for the market just in need of bargain hunting. On the negative side, the supply side of the market is relatively abundant, cargo continues to arrive at the port to supplement, and the downstream market trend of the industrial chain is weak. The supply side of the previous cycle is temporarily supported by downstream demand, which makes it difficult to boost the butadiene market. As the supply side support weakens, the market supply of the next cycle may be gradually relaxed. In addition, with the arrival of ships and the trial run plan of Zhejiang Petrochemical plant, it is difficult to find good news in the short-term butadiene market. Butadiene analysts of the business community predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market will be extended To continue the weak situation, it is suggested to pay attention to the market supply and demand fundamentals and transaction guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market of monoammonium phosphate was not good in 2019, and the price continued to fall in the second half of the year. On January 1, the average ex factory price of domestic powdered monoammonium was 2266 yuan / ton, on December 23, the average ex factory price of domestic powdered monoammonium was 1916 yuan / ton, and the price fell 15.44% in the year.

2、 Market analysis

In the first quarter, the price fell by 4.41%: according to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the average ex factory price of domestic powdered monoammonium was 2266 yuan / ton on January 1, 2166 yuan / ton on March 31, and the price fell by 4.41% in the quarter. In the first quarter, the enterprise executed the preliminary order, and the market price was about 2100-2300 yuan / ton. Although the market price does not fluctuate greatly, the purchase demand of downstream customers is not high, the market shows a weak trend, and new orders are slightly less traded.

In the second quarter, the price rose by 0.77%: according to the data in the large scale list of business agencies, the average ex factory price of domestic powdered monoammonium was 2166 yuan / ton on April 1, 2183 yuan / ton on June 30, and the price rose by 0.77% in the quarter. In the second quarter, the market price was about 2000-2200 yuan / ton. The enterprise is still in the implementation of early orders, and the purchase demand of downstream customers is still flat. Most enterprises operate normally, receive orders and deliver goods normally.

In the third quarter, the price fell by 5.34%: according to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the average ex factory price of domestic powdered monoammonium was 2183 yuan / ton on July 1, 2066 yuan / ton on September 30, and the price fell by 5.34% in the quarter. The market price in the third quarter is about 1900-2200 yuan / ton. The market was weak and prices continued to fall. Due to the lack of downstream follow-up, the market price of raw sulfur has fallen sharply, so the market is difficult to improve. The downstream compound fertilizer market is light and the enterprise has a strong wait-and-see attitude.

In the fourth quarter, the price fell by 7.26%: according to the data in the large scale list of business agencies, the average ex factory price of domestic powdered monoammonium was 2066 yuan / ton on October 1, 1916 yuan / ton on December 23, and the price fell by 7.26% in the quarter. The market price in the fourth quarter is about 1800-2100 yuan / ton. The market continues to be low. In some enterprises, the price of raw materials has fallen due to the maintenance of devices, the downstream procurement is cautious, the demand side has not improved, and the winter storage market is worrying. There is no favorable policy after the conference.

3、 Analysis of industrial chain

Industrial chain: in 2019, the atmosphere of domestic sulfur market is cold, and the price is also falling all the way. The market demand is sluggish and the stock consumption in Hong Kong is slow. The atmosphere of market wait-and-see is strong, the atmosphere of negotiation is cold, and the attitude of industry bearish is obvious. In 2019, phosphorus ore market has been in a weak state of consolidation, weak market demand, weak on-site trading, sporadic supply of orders from old customers by enterprises, mainly digestion of inventory, scarce new orders, and high pressure on mine inventory. In the year, prices fluctuated slightly and remained stable. The demand of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises for monoammonium phosphate is reduced, and they usually take the goods according to the demand, so the market of the whole phosphate fertilizer market is bleak.

3、 Summary and forecast

According to the analysts of monoammonium phosphate of business association, 2019 is a difficult year for monoammonium phosphate enterprises. The market is in a depression, raw material prices fall, downstream demand is not strong, and the whole phosphate fertilizer market is facing many difficulties. The weak market continues to the end of the year. It is predicted that monoammonium phosphate will run smoothly in the short term, but it will not improve before this year.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11333 yuan / ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of this week was 11266 yuan / ton, down 0.59%.

Products: the price of domestic activated carbon continues to fluctuate and decline. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is about 7200-12000 yuan / ton; the price of domestic activated carbon is mainly to maintain stability, and the factory basically purchases on demand to maintain normal production.

Industry chain: the cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell, charcoal and other main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon is supported, and the demand is acceptable; the cost support of coal-based carbon raw materials is weak. Downstream electric power, medicine and other demand industries purchase goods according to the order, the market for purchasing activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable, environmental protection policies boost the activated carbon market, and downstream factories purchase cautiously, unwilling to accept orders in a hurry, and there are not many firm deals.

Forecast: there is no sign of improvement in the downstream of activated carbon. In addition to maintaining the necessary procurement, the enthusiasm for receiving goods is difficult to improve. It is expected that the short-term activated carbon market will not improve greatly, and the overall market will continue to decline.

According to the monitoring of the business association, the market of domestic liquid ammonia tends to be stable in the middle and late ten days, with a slight decline in some areas. In the week of 20th, the price of liquid ammonia didn’t change much. Most of the manufacturers maintained the price range of last week, while most of the manufacturers still reported stable in the weekend. Some of them went down 50 yuan / ton. Some of the enterprises in Shandong, the main production area, were stable, some of them fell 50 yuan / ton, and the price in Northwest China remained stable. At present, some of them are stable The ammonia quantity is in excess, especially some manufacturers in Shandong Province have loose supply of goods, and the pressure of enterprises’ shipment is increasing, but the manufacturers with large ammonia quantity are mainly stable in price, and the main quotation in Shandong Province is 2950-3050 yuan / ton.

The price of liquid ammonia in North China is mainly stable, and there is plenty of ammonia in the region. At present, the supply pressure has not increased significantly. The lack of demand is still a potential factor for the increase of ammonia. In the short term, the shipping pressure may continue to increase. There are many downriver stoppages. The main quotation in North China is 2970 yuan / ton.

The increasing pressure of environmental protection in Hebei region has led to the majority of enterprises limiting production. The shutdown of large downstream enterprises, such as China and Afghanistan, has led to weak demand in the downstream. There are many enterprises accumulating inventory, and the price has not changed significantly. The mainstream quotation in Hebei is 2850-3000 yuan / ton.

Over the weekend, the central China region weakened slightly, and the delivery pressure in Hubei region was obvious. Part of Henan region was affected by environmental protection pressure, and the price gave way to more profits. At present, the liquid ammonia market is full of negative atmosphere, weak operation, and the mainstream quotation in Henan is 3000 yuan / ton up and down.

In the future, the business community believes that the weak market tends to stabilize in the short term, which is mainly affected by the high ammonia volume in most regions, especially the environmental protection pressure is large, and the downstream operating rate is further reduced. The recent market does not exclude the possibility of further exploration.

I. price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus fell slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 18855 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 18250 yuan / ton, with a slight drop of 1.62% in the week.

II. Market analysis

Product: yellow phosphorus market price fell slightly this week. Downstream replenishment enthusiasm is not high, market procurement is not warm. At present, the main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 18000 yuan / ton. The main quotation in Sichuan is about 18500-18100 yuan / ton. The overall market is light, and traders mainly wait and see.

Industry chain: this week, the phosphorus ore market continues to be consolidated and operated. The market is still weak. Many mining enterprises have limited production and quoted prices. The prices were not adjusted years ago. A small part of the mine prices fluctuated slightly by 30%. The price of grade phosphorus ore was reduced by 10-40 yuan / ton. The market as a whole is still running smoothly. After the price of coke rose by 50 yuan / ton in the second round, the supply of domestic spot market of coke declined due to environmental protection, production restriction, capacity reduction and other factors, and the market mentality was optimistic. At present, the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market of Sichuan Province is 2030 yuan / ton, and that in Liupanshui coke market of Guizhou Province is 2270 yuan / ton. The downstream phosphoric acid market is mainly for finishing and operation. At present, the hot process phosphoric acid is generally shipped, and the wet process is relatively good. The downstream starts the year-end stock stage. Phosphoric acid market as a whole was flat, with prices down slightly.

III. future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of business and social chemical branch, the price of yellow phosphorus market fell slightly this week, the overall market of yellow phosphorus was light, and the downstream demand was insufficient, so it was difficult to form a strong support for the market. It is expected that the weak operation of yellow phosphorus price will be the main factor.

I. Market Overview

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite market is stable this week. The weekend price is 2883.33 yuan / ton, which is the same as the price of 2883.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decline of 20.64%. Recently, fluorite price is mainly volatile.

II. Market analysis

Product: the price trend of fluorite in China has been fluctuating this week. Recently, the supply of fluorite in China has decreased. However, the demand for fluorite in the downstream hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant industries has not improved significantly. The price of fluorite has been fluctuating, and the price has not changed much. The price of fluorite in the fluorite market is average. The downstream is purchased on demand. The spot supply of fluorite in the market is normal, and the price trend of fluorite in the market is stable 。 By the end of the week, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2800-3000 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2800-3100 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2800-3000 yuan / ton, and the trend of fluorite price was stable temporarily.

Industry chain: the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite rose this week. As of the end of the week, the ex factory price of hydrofluoric acid was 10240 yuan / ton, and the overall price of hydrofluoric acid rose by 1.89% this week. The rise of the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream was a good factor in the fluorite market, and the price of domestic fluorite market remained volatile. In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal has increased slightly. At present, the automobile industry has entered the cycle of goods preparation. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The market price of R22 in China has increased. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production unit is still not high. The supply capacity of the market source has declined. The downstream air conditioning manufacturer has maintained the demand, but the supply is tight. The price of domestic large enterprises is mainly Flow rose to 14500-17500 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China has increased slightly, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises has maintained a low level. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stock cycle, and the demand for R134a has slightly improved. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, and the price has slightly increased. The downstream is still on-demand procurement, and the price trend of fluorite market is mainly stable.

Industry: this week, the fluorite industry started to operate generally, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid rose slightly, the spot supply of fluorite products fell, and the market price of fluorite remained volatile.

III. future forecast

In the future, the installation of domestic fluorite manufacturers has declined recently, the market price of downstream hydrofluoric acid industry has risen slightly, and the market of downstream refrigeration industry has improved. Chen Ling, an analyst of fluorite in the business agency, thinks that the price of fluorite may rise slightly in the later stage, and the price may be around 2900 yuan / ton.

I. price trend

Market analysis of potash products

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of potash fluctuated and consolidated this week. The average factory price of light potash in China at the weekend was 6375.00 yuan / ton, including tax. The current price fell 7.94% year on year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the market of potash fluctuated and consolidated. The price consolidation of upstream raw material potassium chloride has no supporting effect on the price of potash. The market of potash is stable with little fluctuation. At the same time, the demand side is weak, and the price increase is restrained. The price adjustment range is not large. Part of the manufacturer’s devices are shut down for maintenance, the market momentum of low inventory purchase is general, and the quotation is mainly consolidated. According to the statistics of the business agency: in December, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate is about 6200-6500 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

III. future forecast

Potash analysts of the business association believe that the trading atmosphere of potash market is cold and difficult to close. In the short term, the price of potash may be mainly consolidation, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see, mainly affected by the demand side.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on November 29, the comprehensive price of BPA was 9600.00 yuan / ton, which was just needed to be purchased in the downstream, with general volume and low negotiation focus.

II. Cause analysis

In terms of products: the domestic bisphenol a market today has seen a decrease in low prices, a flat trading atmosphere at the end of the month, no pressure on the inventory of various manufacturers, a firm offer, no increase in market demand, and a low overall turnover rate.

III. future forecast

Bisphenol A analysts think: in the short term, bisphenol a market will be reorganized and operated.