I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of octanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of main octanol in Shandong fell from 7000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6933.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.95%, down 25.85% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the octanol market fell slightly this week, with the November 15 octanol commodity index at 50.98.

II. Market analysis

(I) products:

At present, the operating rate of domestic octanol plant is acceptable; Hualu Hengsheng’s 80000 T / a octanol plant is operating normally, and this week’s offer is firm; the annual capacity of Jiangsu Huachang Chemical octanol plant is 80000 tons, and there is no maintenance plan.

This week, the factory quotation of main octanol manufacturers in Shandong slightly fell: hualuhengsheng’s factory quotation of octanol this weekend was 7000 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jianlan chemical’s price of octanol this weekend was 6900 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton lower than the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s price of octanol this weekend was 6900 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton lower than the beginning of the week.

(II) industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: propylene market rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 7320.77 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7377.92 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.78%, down 10.09% year on year. The price of raw materials in the upstream market rose slightly, which had a positive impact on the price of octanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

Downstream market: the price of DOP factory fell slightly this week. DOP’s quotation dropped from 7433.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7366.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.90%, down 22.05% year on year. Downstream customers have general enthusiasm for octanol procurement, general demand for octanol, and low price consolidation of DOP has a negative impact on octanol market. The aftermarket operators mostly wait and see the trend of DOP.

III. future forecast

In late November, Shandong octanol market trend or low consolidation. After the adjustment in October, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The upstream propylene price rose slightly, and the cost support was strong, but the downstream DOP market was low and consolidated, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was general. At present, the octanol inventory in Shandong is low, and the delivery is tight. According to the octanol analysts of the business agency, the octanol market in Shandong in late November may be in low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

I. price trend

Aniline prices in Shandong and Nanjing fell sharply this week, according to a large number of data from the business club. Last Friday, the market price of aniline in Shandong was 7950 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing was 8400 yuan / ton. On Friday, the market price of aniline in Shandong Province was 7150 yuan / ton, down 10.1% from last week, while that in Nanjing was 7530 yuan / ton, down 10.4% from last week.

II. Analysis and comment

Raw materials: at present, the price of pure benzene is 5250-5400 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the week, pure benzene market demand was weak and the price was lower. However, the reduction of hydrogenated benzene production led to the decrease of supply, driving the price of pure benzene higher in North China. Tight spot supply and drop in port inventory led to short covering, which drove the price of pure benzene to continue to rise.

Nitric acid was stable this week, down 1.98% from last week.

Product: this week, the aniline factory is in normal operation, with sufficient supply and accumulated inventory. In order to promote shipment, the factory has lowered the price for many times.

III. future expectation

Raw materials: the supply and demand of coking industry has been improved, the support surface of hydrogenated benzene is strong, and the subsequent driving force is still strong. In addition, the port inventory is low, and the spot market supply is tight, which has strong support for the bottom of pure benzene. But at present, the profit of downstream enterprises is small, the demand is weak, and the increase is limited. It is expected that pure benzene will rise slightly in the later period driven by the market.

The supply is sufficient and the inventory is accumulated; the cost side has recovered to a certain extent, and it is expected that the consumption of aniline will decline in the short term.

I. price trend

In October, the domestic LNG market ushered in a sustained surge, and at the end of the month, the LNG market experienced the biggest one-day surge. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on October 1 was 2793.33 yuan / ton, and the average price on October 31 was 4750 yuan / ton. In the month, the price rose nearly 2000 yuan, or 70.05%, which was crazy. As of November 7, the average price of LNG was 4126.67 yuan / ton, down 13.12% compared with the average price of 4750 yuan / ton on November 1, and down 5.3% compared with the same period last year. It can be said that the price of LNG was going up crazily and down sharply.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: according to the data monitoring of business agency, as of November 7, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Erdos Star Energy Co., Ltd. is 4100 yuan / ton, and the LNG price of Inner Mongolia etokeqian banner Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 4200 yuan / ton. The LNG price of Xinjiang Qinghua Energy Group Co., Ltd. is 4000 yuan / ton, that of Zizhou LNG plant of Shaanxi Lvyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 4100 yuan / ton, that of Xinjiang guanghuinaomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) is about 2950 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi Qinshui Xinao is 4150 yuan / ton, that of Dazhou Huixin energy is 3800 yuan / ton, and that of Shaanxi Zhongyuan lvneng Natural Gas Co., Ltd It is 4080 yuan / ton, and the price of liquid in various regions has fallen sharply.

Market analysis: in October, the domestic LNG market began to improve. After the National Day holiday, the road transportation recovered smoothly, the downstream began to actively replenish goods, the terminal demand increased. In addition, the weather turned cold, the northern cities gradually entered the winter heating period, the urban gas procurement LNG supply, the LNG sales were hot, some liquid plants due to the low liquid level in the early stage and heating Quarter expectations, strong price push. On October 15, CNPC conventional liquid plant bid for feed gas, starting at 1.41 yuan / m3, gas volume 180 million m3. The rising gas source, a slight reduction in the overall market supply, as well as the intentional increase in logistics freight, also support the upward momentum of LNG. Since then, in the middle and last ten days of October, LNG has maintained the trend of shock and stability, with different ups and downs, but the market as a whole has remained stable. This state of stability was broken at the end of the month. On October 30, the starting base price of Northwest feed gas auction was raised to 1.57 yuan / m3, and the final transaction price was 26-2.75 yuan / m3. The volume of registered orders in the auction was 100 million cubic meters, 80 million cubic meters less than that of the last time. Driven by the rising cost, the domestic LNG price rose sharply, which rose nearly 1000 yuan overnight, with multiple terminals linked and rising, as well as the receiving stations around the country. The scope of this surge is almost national and large-scale. It is also a large one-day increase in recent years, and the market as a whole is “rising”.

However, such a rise did not last for a long time, just like a flash in the pan. It only lasted for three days and then rose and fell back. Since November 2, there have been successive falls all over the country. There are many secondary price adjustments in a day. At present, some manufacturers need to buy high price gas source to maintain the power on, and some manufacturers need to wait and see. The sudden surge at the end of October was unexpected. In addition to the cost increase, there are also market sentiment driven factors. Currently, there is no obvious positive support for the terminal, and LNG short-term price surge lacks practical support.

This year, more efforts have been made to ensure the supply of natural gas. The policy of “gas based transformation, coal based transformation, electricity based transformation and gas based transformation” pays more attention to the coordination of resources. From the central government to the local government, the balance between the supply and demand of natural gas is better than before, and the people’s livelihood can be effectively guaranteed. This winter’s natural gas supply is relatively sufficient, “three barrels of oil” has done a lot of work this year. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, China produced 127.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. In September, China produced 13.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, an increase of 4 percentage points over the previous month. This year, unless we encounter major force majeure factors such as extreme cold current, the phenomenon of “gas shortage” is hard to reproduce.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are two kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in October 2019, among which one is more than 5% higher, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top two commodities are liquefied natural gas (70.05%) and liquefied gas (1.51%) There are 14 kinds of goods falling on a month on month basis, 4 kinds of goods falling by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the number of goods monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are MTBE (- 15.83%), gasoline (- 11.62%), methanol (- 5.89%) This month, the average rise and fall was 0.44%.

III. future forecast

LNG analysts of business club think: in recent days, natural gas has been declining one after another, the pressure of middlemen’s sales is too high, some middlemen’s profits have been inverted, and their mentality is relatively negative. Considering the problem of loss, the decline of local liquid price slowed down. With the decrease of temperature and the approaching of central heating in the north, the demand for heating will increase, and the demand for LNG will be boosted. At that time, the market situation of LNG will change, and there is no lack of expectation for rise.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOP price fell all the way in October, and the plasticizer market gradually stabilized at the end of the month. As of October 31, the price of DOP in East China was 7466.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 450 yuan / ton, or 5.86%, compared with 7916.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (October 1), and a decrease of 24.30% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product analysis

Commodity name port 10.25 price 10.18 price 10.11 price 10.4 price type unit

DOP China 930.00 940.00 950.00 965.00 CFR USD / ton

DOP Southeast Asia 1140.00 1150.00 1180.00 1200.00 CFR USD / ton

© October 2019 business club www.100ppi.com

As can be seen from the table, DOP’s external quotation fell sharply in October, and DOP’s market was negative. In October, the external quotation of DOP in China fell by 35.00 USD / T; in Southeast Asia, the external quotation of DOP fell by 60 USD / T, the external quotation of plasticizer DOP fell, and the domestic plasticizer market was negative.

Analysis of industrial chain

In terms of raw materials, in October, the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride fell sharply, but the decline gradually slowed down. After the sharp drop in octanol price, it maintained stability. Overall DOP cost fell, but the decline trend slowed down. The DOP price fell in shock, but the later DOP market was negative, but the downward pressure weakened, and the later DOP market was weak.

In terms of downstream demand, PVC market fell slightly in October, while the downstream demand of DOP fell, while the market of DOP was negative and the rising power was insufficient. Downstream PVC market fluctuated and fell, and DOP demand was general. Overall, it was not good enough for future DOP market, and the momentum of future DOP rising was insufficient.

III. future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP, the price of raw materials phthalic anhydride and isooctanol of DOP fell sharply in October, the cost of DOP fell sharply, and the market of DOP was negative. However, as the decline of phthalic anhydride slowed down and the price of isooctanol remained stable, the pressure of plasticizer decline weakened, and the market of plasticizer tended to be stable. In the downstream, the price of PVC fell slightly in October, while the demand for DOP was not good enough, while the market of DOP was not strong enough. Generally speaking, the downward pressure of plasticizer DOP market has been eased to some extent, but it is difficult to support the recovery of DOP market due to insufficient upward momentum, and it is expected that the weak trend of DOP market in the future will maintain stability.

I. price trend:

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of Sinopec ortho benzene fell this week, while the price of ortho benzene was dragged down by the upstream and downstream market. As of October 25, the executed contract price of o-xylene Sinopec was 6500.00 yuan / ton, down 2.99% from 6700.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week (October 21). Compared with the same period last year, the price fell by 18.75%. Ortho benzene market fell sharply, obviously weaker than previous years.

II. Market analysis:

Product analysis

Commodity name, quotation type, port, price this week, price last week, up and down unit

O-xylene CFR China 765.00 780.00-15.00 EUR / ton

O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia 795.00 815.00-20.00 USD / ton

O-xylene FOB South Korea 755.00 775.00-20.00 USD / ton

O-xylene FOB Rotterdam 865.00 865.00 0 USD / ton

© October 2019 business club www.100ppi.com

This week, the price of the external market of neighboring benzene fell, and the price of the external market of China region fell 15 US dollars / ton. In South Korea and Southeast Asia, the price of benzene in the external market fell by 20 US dollars / ton respectively. The import price of ortho benzene fell sharply, the price of ortho benzene at the port fell, the port inventory recovered but was still relatively low, and the market of ortho benzene in the future was under great negative pressure. Sinopec’s listing price of ortho benzene in East China is 7500 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 200 yuan / ton. The operating rate of the Yangtze ortho benzene equipment is about 80%. The supply of ortho xylene is temporarily stable, the demand enthusiasm of the downstream of ortho benzene is poor, the purchasing power of ortho benzene is insufficient, the favorable power of the future ortho benzene market is insufficient, and the downward pressure is increased.

Factor analysis of industrial chain

This week, the price of mixed xylene continued to fall sharply, the price of raw materials fell sharply, the cost of ortho benzene fell sharply, the market of ortho benzene became more bearish, and the pressure on the price of ortho benzene in the future increased. The overall cost of o-benzene decreased, and the negative pressure of o-benzene increased in the future.

This week, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, but the decline slowed down. The downstream demand is still insufficient. The demand for ortho benzene is insufficient, and the rising momentum is insufficient. The market is negative. In terms of plasticizers, this week’s DOP market fell slightly and maintained stability. The downward pressure in the future market weakened. The market in the lower reaches of orthobenzene eased. The upward momentum of orthobenzene was insufficient and the downward pressure weakened.

3. Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of o-xylene of business association, the price of o-xylene raw materials mixed with xylene fell sharply this week, the cost of o-benzene fell, and the pressure of o-benzene market fell sharply; in terms of demand, the downstream phthalic anhydride fell in shock, the price remained stable after the price of plasticizer fell slightly, the downstream demand was insufficient, and the power of o-benzene rising was insufficient, but with the stability of the downstream market, the pressure of o-benzene falling In terms of the external market, the price of o-benzene declined, and the port inventory increased but remained at a low level, which eased the negative situation of domestic o-benzene market. To sum up, the upstream and downstream market of o-xylene industry chain has declined, which has affected the price of o-xylene. However, with the stability of the downstream market, the downward pressure of o-xylene has gradually weakened, and the cost of raw materials still has a certain negative effect on o-xylene market, but the overall negative pressure has weakened. It is expected that the weakness of orthobenzene will maintain stability in the future.

I. price trend

EPS market is generally stable with stable price. The market atmosphere is still flat, the trading is flat, the business side is more cautious operation, the post market mentality is not the same. The overall market performance is not ideal, the key resistance still comes from the terminal demand, the actual purchasing strength of the factory is not strong, and the poor transaction is still the biggest negative.

II. Market analysis

EPS Market: EPS market price fell, Wuxi Xingda EPS factory price, ordinary material quotation is 9600 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of Dongying Hairong EPS is 9600 yuan / ton for common materials. The ex factory price of Jiangyin Hupao EPS is 9600 yuan / ton for common materials.

III. future forecast

EPS market operation continued to be stable on the whole. There is still no substantial change in downstream demand, and on-demand procurement is still the mainstream. It is expected that the EPS market will continue to be weak, and the market trend in the middle and later period needs to see the real demand of the downstream market and the guidance of the information side.

I. price trend

EPS market was generally stable, with some losses. Due to the lack of hot spots in the market, business offers are cautious and limited in operation. Although there is a small amount of replenishment in the terminal market, there is no intention for a large amount of demand, and the downstream is still in a wait-and-see attitude.

II. Market analysis

EPS Market: EPS market price fell, Wuxi Xingda EPS factory price, ordinary material quotation is 9600 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of Dongying Hairong EPS is 9600 yuan / ton for common materials. The ex factory price of Jiangyin Hupao EPS is 9600 yuan / ton for common materials.

III. future forecast

EPS market performance is still sluggish, downstream factories are still purchasing on demand, and the intention of goods preparation is not high. At present, EPS market continues to be flat, and it is more difficult to maintain stability in the future. EPS market is expected to maintain a stable, moderate and soft trend.

I. price trend

This week, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to decline. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone producers at the beginning of the week was 8233 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week was 7900 yuan / ton, down 4.05% in the week. Compared with the same period last month, the price fell 10.99% month on month, down 39.23% year on year.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to decline. At the beginning of the week, the peripheral news was short, the listing price of raw material pure benzene was reduced by 150 yuan / ton, and the quotation of mainstream factories was continuously reduced due to inventory and shipment pressure, but the price of downstream caprolactam was reduced to suppress the purchase of chemical fiber single. On Thursday, Shenyuan and other caprolactam factories purchased large orders, and the market stopped falling and stabilized. Considering the maintenance of Hualu Hengsheng unit at the weekend, we will continue to pay attention to the raw material cost and the purchase of downstream chemical fiber orders. In terms of price, 7700-7800 yuan / ton cash bulk water will be sent for the main offer of cyclohexanone market in North China and Shandong, 8100-8300 yuan / ton cash in East China and 8300-8400 yuan / ton cash in South China.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene, domestic pure benzene market rose. The price of external market is mainly rising, and CFR China’s price rise drives the domestic market. Crude oil prices rose at the end of the day, the East China market opened higher, the market price continued to rise, and the downstream styrene also showed a rising trend. However, downstream demand remains weak, and the market is generally positive. The downstream recovery speed is less than expected, and the buying enthusiasm is not good. It is estimated that the short-term pure benzene market will be consolidated within the range.

Caprolactam: the domestic caprolactam market continues to be weak, the atmosphere in the market continues to be light, the upstream pure benzene market continues to be weak, the cost support is limited, the low-cost shipment of the downstream polymerization plant has improved, but the transaction is still more rigid, the polymerization plant part still has certain inventory pressure, the raw material purchase is cautious and on demand, the wait-and-see mood of the industry remains unchanged, the short-term domestic caprolactam market is still or partial. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of terminal receiving mood and the dynamic of manufacturers. The main quotation of East China solid market is 12100-12600 yuan / ton, and the cash will be delivered. The transaction volume of East China liquid market is around 11800-12000 yuan / ton, which will be delivered by acceptance.

Adipic acid: the domestic adipic acid market is weak and volatile, the weak atmosphere in the market is diffuse, the downstream demand is sluggish and hard to change, the inquiry continues to be light, the mentality of traders is short, the initial inventory is sold at a low price, and it is expected that the adipic acid market will be narrowed in the future.

III. future forecast

In terms of enterprises, Hualu Hengsheng overhauls, industry operating rate drops, raw material pure benzene, crude oil uncertainty and Sino US trade relations will still affect the market, but the recovery of terminal demand is slow, and the market is expected to fluctuate next week. The operation rate of downstream caprolactam was maintained. It is necessary to pay attention to the operation of the unit and the demand of the chemical fiber single. The analysis of cyclohexanone in the business community is expected that there will be pressure on the domestic caprolactam market or internal finishing in the next week.

I. price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of n-butanol as of Friday (October 18) of this week is 6350 yuan / ton (including tax), which is basically the same as that of Monday (October 14). At present, the mainstream price of n-butanol in China is about 6300-6600 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic n-butanol market tends to be stable as a whole, and the overall market price tends to be stable and weak. Affected by the load reduction of some units, the supply volume is reduced, and the manufacturer’s price is relatively high. The downstream is still just in need of replenishment or bargain hunting. The trading atmosphere has improved. At present, the quotation of Shandong lihuayi n-butanol is 6350 yuan / ton; the collective pricing price of Luxi Chemical today is 6300 yuan / ton; the quotation of Shandong fengcang Chemical Co., Ltd. for distribution of n-butanol is 6400 yuan / ton; the quotation of Ningbo Haorui Co., Ltd. for distribution of n-butanol is 6400 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: as of October 18, the overall price of propylene market in Shandong continued to decline. At the beginning of this week, there was a small increase on the 14th and 15th, which held steady on the 16th. Most enterprises began to decline on the 17th. As of today, they continue to decline by 50 yuan / ton. At present, the market turnover is about 7380-7700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7400 yuan / ton. At present, most of the downstream product prices of propylene show a downward trend, and the support of the demand side is weakened. Refinery inventory pressure increases, shipment is not smooth, downstream procurement is cold, it is expected that the market price of propylene may still decline in recent days.

III. future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business club, the recent n-butanol market has been affected by the support surface or continues to be weak, maintaining stability and consolidation.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the selling price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. The quotation rose from 243.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 253.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 4.11%, down 51.52% from the same period last year. Overall, sulfuric acid rose this week, with the sulfuric acid commodity index at 39.43 on October 11.

II. Market Analysis

(1) Products:

This week, the price of the main sulphuric acid producers in Shandong rose slightly, with fewer inventories and fewer downstream demand. The weekend quotation of Heze Jiangyuan is 240 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu is 70 yuan/ton at the weekend, which is 30 yuan/ton higher than the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei is 450 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable.

(2) Industrial chain:

Recently, the domestic sulfur market has rebounded, the downstream ammonium Market Trading atmosphere is not good, the transaction is light, the new single transaction is not ideal, the diammonium market is also low consolidation, the downstream demand is less, sulfuric acid enterprises send more early orders, short-term start is insufficient, the supply is slightly tight. This week, domestic sulphuric acid plants run smoothly, market supply is relatively tight, downstream gas purchases are general, market turnover is limited.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the adjustment in September, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. Upstream sulfur prices rebounded, National Day has passed, downstream construction increased, downstream purchasing willingness increased, and products went up under the contradiction between supply and demand. Business sulfuric acid analysts believe that the short-term Shandong market in supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of the sulfuric acid market tends to rise.