1、 Price data
According to the data in the business club’s bulk list, the price of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries has risen slightly. Now the average price of Shandong market at the beginning of the week is about 1138.5 yuan / ton, while the average price of Shandong market at the end of the week is 1140 yuan / ton, up 0.13%. The coking coal commodity index on June 27 was 100.12, flat with yesterday, down 17.62% from 121.53 (2019-03-12), the highest point in the cycle, and up 122.93% from 44.91, the lowest point on January 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Upstream: on June 26, the US WTI crude oil futures market price fell, and the settlement price of main contracts was $38.49/barrel, down $0.23. The price of Brent crude oil futures market fell, with the settlement price of the main contract down $0.19 to $40.93. The fall of international oil price is mainly due to the serious trend of the epidemic, which leads to the restart of market fuel demand worries.
Downstream: this week, the glass grid has risen steadily. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of the glass in the beginning of the week is 18.42 yuan / m2, the average price in the weekend is 18.6 yuan / m2, and the price in the week is increased by 0.98%. Most of the manufacturers are in the form of price increase and promotion, and the price fixing operation. At present, the inventory of enterprises is further reduced, and the inventory pressure of production enterprises is reduced, which plays a significant role in supporting the market price. At present, the carbon market is stable, the terminal industry is stable, and the economic environment is expected to be better.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 25th week of 2020 (6.22-6.26), there are 6 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which the top three commodities are asphalt (1.62%), methanol (1.39%) and WTI crude oil (1.36%). There are four kinds of commodities that have declined on a month on month basis, and the top three products are liquefied natural gas (- 0.81%), diesel (- 0.60%) and MTBE (- 0.42%). This week’s average was 0.33%.
3、 Future forecast
The price of cokes in the local refining market of petroleum coke analysts of the business association kept a slight upward trend under the influence of the tight supply of resources. This week, the trading atmosphere in the forging and burning market was good, and the purchasing heat in the downstream was not reduced. The three major groups and their subordinate refineries are mainly on a positive trend, and there are many manufacturers for next overhaul. It is comprehensively expected that there will be a small increase in the petroleum coke market in the later stage.