Commodity index: on December 30, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 88.96, up 0.37 points from yesterday, down 16.96% from 107.13 points (May 8, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and up 7.32% from 82.89 points, the lowest point on August 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

Monitoring data show that since the water treatment plants in Henan main production areas stopped production in mid November, polyacrylamide first went down slightly, then began to fluctuate around November 20, and up to now, only a small increase of 2%. In the month and a half since the production stopped, the demand in Henan did not appear the scene of centralized outbreak, but the continuous demand for goods, which made the shortage situation of manufacturers with different polyacrylamide inventory different.

Industry situation: the domestic mainstream price of acrylonitrile, the upstream raw material, was 9300 yuan / ton in October, increased by 3000 yuan / ton in November, and returned to 12150 yuan / ton in December. During this period, the main plant dynamic: Shanghai Secco 520000 tons acrylonitrile plant has returned to normal operation. The overhaul plan of 260000 ton acrylonitrile plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, which was originally scheduled to start on December 20, has been postponed, but the specific time is not clear. The 130000 ton acrylonitrile plant in Haijiang, Shandong Province is scheduled to be restarted from December 10 to 15, but it has not been restarted yet. Jilin chemical fiber Gaocheng acrylic fiber plant was shut down on December 5, and Shanghai Petrochemical North plant was shut down on December 6. In December, Sinopec’s settlement prices of acrylonitrile products in North China and East China were 12450 yuan / ton, up 2550-2600 yuan / ton compared with last month’s settlement. Ineos’s acrylonitrile plant in Germany fell due to insufficient supply of raw propylene. Global supply is still tight, and the number of inquiries from Europe and India increased. Asahi Kasei of Japan announced that the Far East contract price in January 2021 was US $1800 / T, up US $380 / T from December. In terms of downstream demand, during the continuous shutdown period of polyacrylamide manufacturers from mid November to the end of December, the downstream demand did not increase intensively. With the gradual consumption of domestic spot stock of polyacrylamide, the shortage of supply of some manufacturers also gradually appeared, so the demand did not have a strong driving effect on the price.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, since the manufacturers in the main production areas have stopped production, the downstream demand for polyacrylamide is relatively normal, and the supply of spot stock is gradually decreasing, so some prices have slightly increased. It is said that production will resume next month, but it is difficult to resume at present. At present, the increase of supply side is limited, the seasonal purchasing pressure of demand is not big, the impact of upstream raw material price changes on manufacturers’ production stop is small, and the follow-up market is mainly expected to run smoothly.

Domestic price trend:

According to statistics, in December, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price trend was temporarily stable. At the beginning of the month, the domestic price was 4300 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the domestic PX market price was 4300 yuan / ton. The price trend was stable, with a year-on-year decline of 35.82%. The PX external price rose. The domestic PX market had a high degree of external dependence, and the higher external price had a certain positive impact on the domestic price.

In December, the price trend of domestic p-xylene market was temporarily stable. The domestic PX operation rate was about 60%. The 600000 ton new plant of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical was put into operation. The Yangzi Petrochemical plant operated stably. The Fuhai Chuang plant started one line. The Pengzhou petrochemical plant operated stably. The Yangzi Petrochemical Plant operated normally. The Jinling Petrochemical plant operated smoothly. The Qingdao Lidong plant operated at full load The petrochemical plant in Urumqi started at about 50%. The domestic supply and demand of p-xylene are normal, and the price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The international crude oil price rose in December, while the PX external price rose. As of the 25th, the closing price in Asia was US $601-591 / T FOB South Korea and US $619-621 / T CFR China. Recently, the PX unit in Asia has been operating stably. As a whole, the operation rate of PX unit in Asia is about 60%, and the supply of PX in Asia is normal. The PX external closing price in December rose mainly, while the domestic PX unit is second The price trend of toluene market is temporarily stable.

With the recovery of foreign economy, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose at the end of December, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $48.23/barrel. The price of Brent crude oil futures market rose, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $51.34/barrel. The international oil price closed higher, mainly due to the interest rate impact of the post brexit trade agreement signed between the United Kingdom and the European Union, which led to the rise of crude oil price and the price of p-xylene The trend is temporarily stable.

In December, the price trend of downstream PTA market rose sharply, and the domestic PTA spot market rose. By the end of the month, the average price of PTA market was about 3700 yuan / ton, and the PTA price rose by 9.73% in December. PTA supply continued to be at a high level. Due to the limited maintenance efforts, the operation rate of domestic PTA plant continued to maintain about 90% in the first half of December. With the maintenance of 4.5 million tons PTA plant in Fuhai, the operation rate of PTA industry dropped to around 85% by December 25. The domestic textile market is getting better. The downstream weaving market has a large number of orders, but the stamina is insufficient. The turnover of winter fabrics has declined month on month. The spring fabric orders are relatively limited, and the power on rate has been reduced to 76%. The price of PTA in the downstream has risen sharply, which has a certain positive support for the price of the upstream PX market, and the price trend of PX market is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business news agency, believes that the crude oil shock is near the 10 month high, and the cost support still exists. In addition, the off-season characteristics of demand terminal textile are gradually highlighted, and the supply and demand side of PTA is lack of good. PTA market is facing the risk of decline, but the PTA market price is at a high level, and it is expected that the market price of p-xylene will rise in January.

On December 21, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at $47.97/barrel, down $1.27. The price of Brent crude oil futures market also dropped significantly, with the settlement price of main contracts at $50.91/barrel, down $1.35.

The WTI of oil prices fell 2.6% on Monday. The main reason for the end of the recent continuous rise in oil prices was the mutation of the new coronavirus in the UK, which spread more rapidly, resulting in the tightening of restrictions in the UK and even in Europe as a whole, which led to the market’s concern about the expected recovery of fuel demand.

On December 20, Beijing time, British Prime Minister Johnson suddenly announced to raise the epidemic prevention level of London and parts of southeast England to the newly added fourth level (closed city). According to relevant knowledge, this measure is due to the variation of the virus. British officials said that the transmission capacity of the variant virus strain is 70% higher than that of the original strain. The discovery of the new strain has raised concerns in the market about a wider range of infections. As a result, after the British Prime Minister announced emergency measures, a large number of Londoners went out of the city overnight by train or road, and most parts of Britain were closed. Even Europe as a whole has tightened restrictions, and many countries have issued new travel restrictions on the UK, raising concerns about the expected slowdown in fuel demand in the market.

In addition, from the supply side, there are certain risk factors in the supply side of oil price. Previously, due to the continuous promotion of vaccines and the optimistic market, the oil price continued to soar, and the oil price has been in an upward cycle for seven consecutive weeks. The number of active oil and gas rigs in US energy companies rose for four consecutive weeks, boosted by optimism about the oil price environment. Baker Hughes, the US energy service company, reported on Friday that the number of active oil and gas rigs, the leading indicator of us future production, increased by 8 to 346, the highest since May. Shale oil production continues to increase. The superposition of OPEC + has also relaxed the restrictions on production reduction, forming a new impact on the market. Recently, people familiar with the matter disclosed that Russia proposes to further increase OPEC production by 500000 B / D in February next year, which also reflects the variables of future supply.

According to the business association, the recent epidemic situation has undergone new changes, and there is great uncertainty in market demand. In the short term, affected by European restrictive measures, oil prices may still have downward pressure. In addition, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory data last week showed that although crude oil inventories continued to decrease, gasoline inventories continued to increase, indicating that demand growth was still very slow, and oil prices may continue to hover at the $50 level. In the medium and long term, with the promotion of vaccines and the implementation of new US fiscal stimulus policies, including the continued recovery of demand in Asia, oil prices may continue Continued to warm up.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic xylene market price continued to rise this week. On December 13, the price of xylene was 4010 yuan / ton; this Sunday (December 20) was at 4060 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton or 1.25% compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

During the week, the listed price of xylene in East China of Sinopec increased by 100 yuan / ton, while that in Central China increased by 50 yuan / ton. Xylene price is supported by crude oil price; downstream PTA, PX, ox demand is weak; current gasoline blending price has obvious impact on xylene price. This week, the East China port xylene inventory was about 106700 tons, down 4300 tons compared with last week.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil this week showed an overall upward trend. The US economic stimulus plan negotiations are expected to reach an agreement, and the crude oil market is boosted. Compared with December 11, Brent was up $1.94/barrel, or 3.88%; WTI was up $2.49/barrel, or 5.33%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 22.16%, and WTI decreased by 18.97%.

In the downstream, PX market, the listed price of domestic SINOPEC enterprises was about 4300 yuan / ton this week, which was stable compared with last week, with a year-on-year decrease of 35.82%. The supply of goods in PX yard is normal and the goods are in good condition. PX prices rose this week. As of the end of the week, the Asian PX market closed at US $608.5/t FOB Korea and US $626.5/t CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, PTA price in East China rose by 156.25 yuan / ton or 4.47% compared with last week. PTA supply pressure is obvious, the overall supply and demand remain pessimistic, PTA market there is a risk of weakening. In addition, in December, the terminal weaving industry has seen a gradual decline in the starting load after new year’s day. After the winter order is digested, it will stop in large area during the Spring Festival every year. Therefore, the demand for the subsequent terminal will be low and the purchase of raw materials will be gradually reduced.

In terms of ox market, ox prices continued to fall this week. The price of ox in East China was 5500 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan / ton or 1.08% from last week. The supply of o-benzene is stable, the cost is stable, and the downstream demand is weak. Overall, the upward momentum of o-benzene market still exists, but the downward pressure is greater.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling and weekly EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States, the progress in the research and development of new coronal vaccine, the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market.

Crude oil prices rose as a whole, with strong support from the cost side. But downstream demand is weak, xylene price upward breakthrough resistance is greater. We will focus on the trend of gasoline blended price, and it is expected that there will be upward momentum at the end of the year. Overall, it is expected that domestic xylene prices will continue to rise next week.

Zinc price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price rose slightly in December, and the zinc market struggled to rise. As of December 18, the average price of zinc was 22256.67 yuan / ton, up 2.46% compared with 21723.33 yuan / ton on December 1.

Galvanized sheet Market

According to the statistics of business agency, the price of galvanized sheet rose sharply in December, and the price of galvanized sheet reached a new high in 10 years. The price of downstream products in the industrial chain is rising, the demand for zinc ingot is increasing, and the benefits of zinc ingot are increasing, and the rising power of zinc market is greater.

Supply and demand data of global zinc Market

According to the report released by the world Bureau of metal statistics, from January to October 2020, there is a surplus of 293000 tons in the global zinc market, and there is a shortage of 76000 tons in 2019. From January to October, the global refined zinc production increased by 1.6% year-on-year, and the demand decreased by 1.8%. In 2020, the global zinc market will be oversupplied, which will be disadvantageous to the domestic zinc market.

According to the data of the international lead and zinc research group, in October 2020, the supply surplus in the global zinc market rose from 38900 tons in September to 52900 tons. From January to October, there was a surplus of 480000 tons of zinc, compared with a shortage of 216 thousand tons in the same period last year. In 2020, the risk of oversupply in zinc market will gradually increase.

Analysis, review and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the domestic zinc industry chain market is picking up, and the price of galvanized sheet has reached a record high, which is obviously good for the zinc market. However, from the global market point of view, the zinc market oversupply, the downward pressure of zinc market increased, and the global zinc market dragged down the domestic zinc market. Generally speaking, the domestic zinc market in the aftermarket is generally favorable, and the price of zinc is expected to rise in shock. However, affected by the global zinc market, the domestic zinc price rises slowly and slightly.

This week, the international crude oil price is running at a high level, the terminal market is bullish, the demand for refined oil is supported, and the domestic product oil price is up. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the gasoline price on December 11 was 5707 yuan / ton, up 2.38% from the beginning of the week; on December 11, the price of diesel oil was 4993 yuan / ton, up 1.67% from the beginning of the week.

Due to the positive news of the new crown vaccine, the market hopes for a rebound in fuel demand, adding to the news of the oil well attack in Iraq, offsetting the negative effect of the substantial increase in US commercial crude oil inventories. In the near future, oil prices are likely to remain strong. WTI crude oil prices rose 0.67% this week, while Brent crude oil prices rose 1.46%.

In terms of gasoline demand, the weather turns cold, the number of car trips increases, and the demand for gasoline market is supported. In addition, the international oil price is rising, and the demand for diesel oil in the terminal market is increasing. In terms of diesel demand, the domestic weather is getting colder, and the outdoor diesel demand for road engineering and infrastructure projects is gradually declining. However, the rush work of some infrastructure projects a year ago has a certain supporting effect on the diesel market demand.

As of December 11, the average start-up load of the daily decompression unit was about 75%, and the start-up load of the refinery was basically stable, and the domestic product oil supply was sufficient.

Lu Xingjun, oil product analyst of business agency, believes: the growth of oil market demand for vaccine mass vaccination is expected to push the international oil price to a periodic high, but there is no real supply-demand news to boost it. At the same time, the oil product market demand maintains a just demand. In the short term, the oil product market price is expected to decline steadily.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, at the beginning of this week, the average ex factory price of domestic light potassium carbonate was 6225.00 yuan / ton, while at the weekend, the average price of domestic light potassium carbonate was 6375.00 yuan / ton, up 2.41%. The current price was up 3.66% month on month, and the current price was down 0.39% year on year.

This week, the domestic market of potassium carbonate is rising, the supply is tight, the regional inventory is at a low level, the downstream factories take more goods on demand, the potassium carbonate manufacturers have a positive attitude, and the price is rising. According to the statistics of the business agency: this week, the mainstream factory quotation range of industrial grade potassium carbonate in China is about 6000-6700 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the purchase situation.

On December 11, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is 2020 yuan / T, which is stable temporarily. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. On December 11, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 2300 yuan / T potassium chloride, which was temporarily stable. The actual transaction price was mainly negotiated. Potassium chloride Market Volatility in the near future, high consolidation, can give potassium carbonate a certain cost support.

In the near future, domestic potassium carbonate prices are expected to rise in the short-term, but there is still a small demand for domestic potassium carbonate in the short-term. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

1、 Price trend

The factory price of octanol in Shandong Province rose this week. This week, the average price of octanol mainstream factory quotation in Shandong increased from 9266.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 10000.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 7.91%, and a year-on-year increase of 43.54% compared with the same period last year. Overall, octanol market rose this week, with the octanol commodity index of 73.53 on December 4.

2、 Market analysis

Compared with the initial quotation of Shandong Xinli alcohol Co., Ltd., the price of Xinli alcohol increased by RMB 10100 / T from the beginning of last week to the quotation of Xinli alcohol Co., Ltd. at the end of this week, the price of Xinli alcohol increased by RMB 10100 / T compared with the quotation of Shandong Xinli alcohol Co., Ltd. at the end of this week, the price of Xinli alcohol increased by RMB 10100 / T compared with the quotation of Shandong Xinli alcohol Co., Ltd. at the end of this week It increased by 200 yuan / ton.

Judging from the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of octanol rose this week, with the quotation rising from 7739.18 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7843.73 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 1.35%, 13.47% compared with the same period last year. Upstream raw material market price rise, affected by the supply and demand side, has a positive impact on the price of octanol.

The downstream market of octanol, DOP factory price fell slightly this week. The DOP quotation fell from 9866.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 9700.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.69%, and a year-on-year increase of 31.67% over the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices fell, downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about octanol procurement, octanol demand is general, and future market operators are more likely to wait for DOP trend.

3、 Future forecast

In the first ten days of December, the market trend of octanol in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly. The upstream propylene market rose and the raw material support was strong, but the downstream DOP market fell slightly, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was weak, and the octanol supply was normal. Octanol analysts believe that: in the early December of Shandong octanol market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact, octanol market or a small shock down.

This week, some listed companies announced the new moon listing, mainly to support the market. However, the domestic BDO market remained stagnant. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 12250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 13125 yuan / ton at the weekend. During the week, the price increased by 7.14%, the price rose by 16.15% month on month, and increased by 34.20% year-on-year.

Some enterprises announced the new settlement price and listing price:

Enterprises, settlement in November (bulk water delivery), listing in December (bulk water delivery)

Xinjiang Meike Chemical Co., Ltd. East China 11600 yuan / ton, South China 11800 yuan / ton, East China 13000 yuan / ton, South China 13200 yuan / ton

Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe Chemical Co., Ltd. East China 11600 yuan / ton, South China 11800 yuan / ton, East China 13000 yuan / ton, South China 13200 yuan / ton

This week, some production enterprises restart or increase load, and the overall start-up has increased, but the inventory of each factory is still within the controllable range; at the same time, the raw material calcium carbide rises, the cost pressure increases, and the supplier continues to make high offer, so the interest intention is not strong. Some factories announced that the settlement prices in November were 11600 yuan / ton in East China and 11800 yuan / ton in South China, and the listed prices in December were 13000 yuan / ton in East China and 13200 yuan / ton in South China, showing obvious intention to support the market. The market is against the high price, the demand is relatively stable, and the BDO market is in a high deadlock situation.

In terms of equipment, Tianye’s 30000 ton unit was restarted and began to be exported; Hebi, Henan Province, was overhauled on November 14 and is expected to restart on December 10; Yanchang oil’s products were exported on November 25, with a current load of about 60%.

However, the downstream demand is relatively stable, and the BDO market is in a stalemate situation. BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will remain high in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market showed a volatile trend this week. As of Friday, the domestic market average price was about 3640 yuan / ton, up 0.28% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the domestic xylene market showed a volatile trend. Sinopec’s enterprises in South China have increased the price of xylene by about 50 yuan / ton this week. Port inventory is high. At present, the port inventory in East China is about 123000 tons, down 8000 tons compared with last week. The pressure to go to the warehouse is not reduced. Market oversupply, downstream Px, gasoline blending demand is general. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3730 yuan / ton. The future market will focus on the outcome of the US election, the progress of the US economic stimulus plan, the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the geographical situation in the Middle East and the impact of OPEC + on crude oil supply, the impact of the continuous deterioration of overseas epidemic situation on the demand for crude oil, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, the global economic recovery, and the European and American economic recovery relief plan Progress.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the international oil price has been positive for four consecutive weeks, breaking the high level since the beginning of March. The overall prospect of vaccines is good, which stimulates the hope for a rapid recovery of oil demand. The US crude oil inventory is unexpectedly reduced, and the U.S. government starts an orderly handover. OPEC + is expected to discuss postponing the production increase plan, strengthening the expectation. However, the implementation of blockade measures due to the deterioration of the epidemic situation, the increase in the number of active drilling rigs in the United States, and the increase in production in Libya are all risk factors for bulls. Short term oil prices may have adjusted demand, and the overall trend tends to rise, so as to prevent repeated high exploration and backstepping. As of Friday, spot Brent rose $3.59/barrel to close at $47.025, up 8.27% month on month. At present, the main uncertain factors in the market come from the new crown epidemic in Europe and the United States and the uncertainty of the US presidential election. The final direction of crude oil will not take further action until the demand side is better and the US election is clear. In the medium term, oil prices mainly depend on the recovery of demand side and the direction of macro market.

Downstream, in terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week was about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest external price was about 545 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 563 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will fluctuate slightly. In terms of PTA market, the market price continues to rebound this week. The domestic PTA spot market price is about 3350 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 450 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price will fluctuate slightly next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec quoted 5300-5500 yuan / T of o-benzene, and the external price of o-benzene was about 650 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 690 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will maintain a stable trend next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling and weekly EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States, the progress in the research and development of new coronal vaccine, the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market. Next week, we will focus on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the impact of the news of the OPEC Conference on November 30 and the OPEC + ministerial meeting on December 1 on the trend of crude oil. Overall, xylene in the domestic market is expected to fluctuate slightly next week.