According to the block data monitoring of the business society, affected by the active market trading, the market of ethyl acetate was strong. As of January 27, the average price of enterprises in East China was about 8012 yuan / ton, up 9.01% over the same period last week and 13.25% over the beginning of this month.

The domestic ethyl acetate market continued to be strong, and the raw material acetic acid market was in short supply, which led to high prices. The downstream market concentrated on stock preparation before the festival. The two-way positive support for the manufacturers to continuously raise their quotations, which led to the rise of market transaction price. At present, the active negotiations in the industry, coupled with the low inventory of enterprises, supported the strong operation of ethyl acetate Market. At present, about 8200-8300 yuan / ton in East China, 8100-8200 yuan / ton in North China and 8500-8600 yuan / ton in South China.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic acetic acid market as a whole is high and strong, and the spot supply falls short of demand. The downstream market has a positive performance in preparing goods before the festival, and the trade is active. Due to the shutdown and overhaul of some devices in North China, the market supply is in short supply. How long does the manufacturer make delivery, and the supply side gap is difficult to make up in a short time. The recent high volatility of the ethanol market, raw material corn prices firm, traders and farmers hard to sell, short-term prices remain high. The start-up of ethanol production enterprises is not high, and the large-scale plants have obvious warehouse discharge in the early stage, and the short-term price is firm. At present, the ethanol price in East China is about 7225 yuan / ton.

Analysts of ethyl acetate from business society believe that at present, the domestic ethyl acetate Market is positive, raw materials and demand side are good, and the support for the ethyl acetate Market is strong, and the market is still in short supply. It is expected that the ethyl acetate Market will be strong in a short time.

1、 Price trend

This week, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong fell from 2023.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2013.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.49%, up 20.08% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the urea market fell this week, with the urea commodity index at 93.64 on January 22.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong fell this week. Yangmei plain urea quoted 2020 yuan / ton this weekend, down 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2000 yuan / ton this weekend, down 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 2020 yuan / ton this weekend, down 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

On the whole, the downstream demand is tightening as a whole. In agriculture, the price of urea is relatively high and the purchase of agriculture is cautious. In industry, due to the impact of air pollution control in some areas, plate enterprises shut down, and compound fertilizer enterprises started with general load, so the demand for proper follow-up. On the supply side, the early maintenance units started in succession, and the output increased steadily.

From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain: the overall price of upstream urea products fell significantly this week: the price of liquefied natural gas fell sharply, from 5366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4556.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 15.09%, a year-on-year increase of 47.47%; the price of liquid ammonia rose slightly this week, from 3343.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3383.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a rise of 15.09% 20%, up 13.28% over the same period last year. This week, the price of melamine in the lower reaches of urea was temporarily stable, at 7200.00 yuan / ton. Overall, urea cost support is weak this week.

3、 Future forecast

In late January, the urea market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that the current agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand has declined. At the beginning of the week, urea supply is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term, and the market will mainly fall.

On January 24, the commodity index of hydrobenzene was 46.16, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 54.75% compared with the highest point of 102.01 in the cycle (January 09, 2014), and increased by 53.92% compared with the lowest point of 29.99 on April 7, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2013 to now).

Price fluctuation of main domestic hydrogenated benzene market from January 18 to 22 (unit: yuan / ton)

Region, 18 prices, 22 prices, weekly ups and downs

East China, 4400-4550, 4050-4100, – 400

Shandong, 4150-4200, 4300-4400, – 175

This week (January 18-22), the market price of hydrobenzene in Shandong Province mainly fell, with 4175 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 4350 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 175 yuan / ton.

Summary of Sinopec’s price adjustment of pure benzene in January 2021 (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, adjusted price, adjusted amount

January 7, 4550, + 150

January 11, 4650, + 100

In January 2021, the price of pure benzene of Sinopec was increased twice, with a total increase of 250 yuan / ton. By the 25th, all its refineries had implemented a unified price of 4650 yuan / ton.

The pure benzene market was mainly volatile this week. Although the crude oil and external market had good support, the inventory of downstream raw materials was on the high side, the enthusiasm to enter the market was not high, and the demand decreased. The market in East China is weak, while the market in North China is under pressure. The price of pure benzene of Sinopec was temporarily stable after rising, and the price was 4650 yuan / ton as of the 21st. Shandong crude benzene bidding price this week under pressure, the implementation of 3000 yuan / ton.

On the downstream side, the recent operating rate of hydrobenzene enterprises is about 60%, which is on the rise as a whole, about 2% higher than that of last week. The demand for crude benzene is good.

In the future, the business community believes that at present, the overall bad news is too much, the pure benzene action is insufficient, the coking enterprises start well, and the crude benzene supply is stable. In the future, the terminal still needs to pay attention to the trend of pure benzene market and the demand of downstream hydrogenated benzene.

According to the business news agency, the price of activated carbon was 9966 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week and 10000 yuan / ton at the end of this week, up 0.33%.

The domestic price of activated carbon is rising. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan / ton. The domestic downstream demand for activated carbon is getting better, and the atmosphere of on-site trading is active. Most of the goods are delivered according to orders, and more attention is paid to the downstream transaction.

The raw materials of activated carbon are rich, including coal, sawdust, fruit shell, straw, etc.

Forecast: most of the activated carbon market will be purchased on demand, with small orders to meet the normal production. Most of the traders will maintain the shipment and reduce the warehouse. In the short term, the price of activated carbon will be mainly adjusted by shock.

This week, the supply of domestic BDO spot goods is tight, and the market is strong and upward. According to the sample data monitored by the business association, as of January 15, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 13125 yuan / ton, which was stable on a month on month basis, with a year-on-year increase of 33.98%.

Some enterprises announced new settlement price and listing price:

Enterprise, settlement in December (bulk delivered), listing in January (bulk delivered)

Xinjiang Meike Chemical Co., Ltd. $12650 / T East China, $12800 / T South China (bulk water delivery), $13300 / T East China, and $13500 / T South China (bulk water delivery)

Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe Chemical Co., Ltd. $12650 / T East China, 12800 / T South China (bulk water to be delivered) 13300 / T East China, 13500 / T South China (bulk water to be delivered)

This week, the supply of domestic BDO spot goods is tight, and the market atmosphere is strong. The price of raw calcium carbide continued to soften, the cost support weakened, and the wait-and-see sentiment of downstream demand side was strong. However, Dongyuan, Panjin and Dalian reduced their production burden, Tunhe and Meike replaced their catalysts in the third phase, and Xinye boiler was overhauled and stopped until the 20th. The supply side was favorable and the support was obvious. The factory delivered the contract orders, and the transportation in some areas was slow, so the supply of spot goods was tight.

In terms of units, Jianfeng, Tianhua and Dongyuan are affected by natural gas, and the load is reduced to 70%; Tunhe two sets of units replace the catalyst in turn; Meike phase III replaces the catalyst, and is expected to restart soon; Xinye is affected by boiler maintenance, and stops until January 20; Panjin Dalian’s load is reduced due to shortage of raw materials; Yanchang oil unit is unstable, and the load is about 50%; heimao has been restarted, The load is not high; Kaixiang plant has been restarted, the current load is not high; Shanhua 30000 ton plant has been restarted, but the operation is unstable.

Raw material calcium carbide reserves are expected to continue to decline, the cost side support is still weak, and the demand side may be cautious. However, the current tense situation of spot supply continues, and manufacturers’ intention to support the market remains unchanged. If there is no significant improvement in the supply side in the short term, BDO analysts of the business community expect that the domestic BDO market will be mainly frozen in the short term.

1、 Price trend

In 2020, the overall operation of phosphorus chemical industry will be weak, and the market of phosphoric acid will fluctuate and fall. According to the block data list of business society, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on December 31 was 4983 yuan / ton, down 6.85% compared with the beginning of the year. The lowest price of the whole year was 4716 yuan / ton, the highest price was 5366 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude of the whole year was 12.11%.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of phosphoric acid from January to December in 2020, the overall monthly price of phosphoric acid showed a downward trend in the first, third, fourth, sixth, seventh and December, and rose in other months, with the biggest rise in October and the biggest decline in June. The price of phosphoric acid declined throughout the year.

2、 Market analysis

Phosphoric acid prices fluctuated in a narrow range in the first quarter. As the Spring Festival approaches in January, the stock of goods in the downstream is basically completed before the festival, and a few enterprises replenish goods sporadically, so the fluctuation of phosphoric acid market is limited. In February, due to the public health incident, the start-up of parking factories was delayed, the traffic and transportation control was severe, and the shipment of phosphoric acid enterprises was difficult. In the second half of the month, the start-up of phosphoric acid enterprises gradually increased, the price of raw materials increased, and the price of phosphoric acid rose steadily. In March, the market of phosphoric acid became weak, the price decreased, the market of phosphoric acid was weak, all regions basically returned to normal, the high-end prices in the market generally decreased, the focus of market transactions moved down, the supporting effect of raw material side weakened, and the enterprises were more cautious to wait and see, and more follow the market. In the first quarter, it fell slightly by 0.31%.

In the second quarter, the price of phosphoric acid first fell, then rose, and then fell. In April, the phosphoric acid market was in general, raw material prices fell, and the phosphoric acid market fell accordingly. Meanwhile, affected by foreign public health events, the export situation of phosphoric acid was not good, and domestic demand did not have a large volume. The focus of transaction moved down. Near the May Day holiday, the stock of phosphoric acid downstream increased before the festival, and the price rose. In May, domestic demand has basically recovered. In the fertilizer peak season, most phosphoric acid manufacturers in some areas are self-produced and self used, and they are reluctant to sell. As a result, the supply of some goods in the yard is tight, and the support of yellow phosphorus at the raw material end is acceptable, the market trend of phosphoric acid is becoming stronger. In June, the price of phosphoric acid continued to fall. After the implementation of electricity price in wet season, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus fell to a low level. Due to the close relationship between phosphoric acid (thermal process) and yellow phosphorus, the price of yellow phosphorus decreased rapidly, the cost support collapsed, the price of phosphoric acid also decreased, and the trading center continued to move downward. It fell 8.75% in the second quarter.

In the third quarter, the phosphoric acid Market froze. The overall phosphoric acid market went down in July and rebounded slightly towards the end of the month. The market demand is poor in the off-season, and the goods are generally sold. There is pressure on the sales of phosphoric acid enterprises, and the trading atmosphere is not high. In August, the phosphoric acid market was running smoothly, and the overall market atmosphere was still weak. Both the buyer and the seller held a wait-and-see state, and the inquiry enthusiasm was not high. The merchants made the offer according to the market, and the actual transaction was insufficient. The downstream sporadic replenishment, the lack of positive signals in the market, the seesaw deadlock between the cost side and the demand side, the mainstream price of the market was stable, and the sporadic rise, and the market was frozen. In September, the phosphoric acid market went up steadily. The spot price of raw material yellow phosphorus was tight, and the price rose, which was transmitted to the phosphoric acid market. In the second half of the month, the price rose. With the coming holiday, the downstream started the mode of stock preparation before the festival. Boosted by this, the price of phosphoric acid rose slightly, and some enterprises kept a steady wait-and-see market.

Phosphoric acid market rose in the fourth quarter. In October, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus continued to rise, the phosphoric acid market continued to move upward with the rise of raw materials, and the focus of negotiation continued to move towards a high level, but the demand side showed poor performance, the industry had a strong wait-and-see mentality, and the price did not rise significantly. In November, due to the increase of electricity price in the normal water period, the production cost of raw material yellow phosphorus enterprises increased, and the environmental protection requirements of atmospheric monitoring in autumn and winter were superimposed, the yellow phosphorus spot was still tight, the manufacturers actively increased, and the phosphoric acid market rose accordingly. In December, the raw materials were first restrained and then raised, the phosphoric acid market was cautious and wait-and-see, and the market was stable at the end of the year.

Recently, the overall trend of domestic yellow phosphorus market is upward, the market demand is good, and the manufacturers are reluctant to sell. Traders are more cautious in taking goods and mainly purchase on demand in the downstream. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 16733 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Sichuan is about 16700 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Guizhou is about 16500 yuan / ton. In January, some enterprises in Yunnan plan to stop production for maintenance, the supply will be reduced, and the demand for goods preparation before the Spring Festival will increase. For now, the price of yellow phosphorus will still be adjusted above in the short term.

In 2020, the price of phosphorus chemical products will fall more than rise. According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 2 kinds of commodities rising, 3 kinds of commodities falling and 0 kinds of commodities rising or falling in the price list of phosphorus chemical products in 2020. The main commodities rising were monoammonium phosphate (11.01%) and diammonium phosphate (10.91%); the main commodities falling were yellow phosphorus (- 7.95%), phosphoric acid (- 6.85%) and phosphate rock (- 1.65%). The average annual rise and fall of this year is 1.09%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of chemical branch of business society, the overall operation of phosphorus chemical industry will be weak in 2020, and the phosphoric acid market will fluctuate and fall. In 2021, the supply of raw material yellow phosphorus is tight, the price is rising, and the cost side is favorable to the phosphoric acid market. At present, the preparation of goods is started before the year, the demand side is improved, and the quotation of phosphoric acid is slightly increased. However, most manufacturers still maintain stable prices, and the main supplier orders, and the cautious wait-and-see attitude remains. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will continue to be stable in the short term, with big price stability and small price movement. In the future, we need to pay attention to the price trend of raw materials.

This week, the international crude oil market continued to be favorable, the international oil price was soaring, the domestic oil product price was expected to rise, and the refinery oil product price was pushed up. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the price of gasoline on January 8 was 5771 yuan / ton, up 1.14% from the beginning of the week; the price of diesel on December 25 was 4882 yuan / ton, up 0.38% from the beginning of the week.

This week, the international crude oil market was frequently bullish. The OPEC agreement was reached and Saudi Arabia reduced production by an additional 1 million barrels per day. Data showed that the U.S. crude oil inventory fell. This week, the price of WTI crude oil exceeded the $50 / barrel mark, with a weekly increase of 7.67%, and the price of Brent crude oil increased by 8.09%.

In terms of gasoline demand, cold weather and increased demand for automobile travel, coupled with the sharp rise in international oil prices, the oil product market is bullish. However, a small number of outbreaks in Hebei and Liaoning have led to road control in surrounding areas, affecting terminal transactions, and limiting the price rise in the gasoline market. In terms of diesel demand, cold weather has led to a continuous decline in outdoor diesel demand for road engineering and infrastructure, However, the price of diesel oil is still on the rise due to the increase of crude oil price.

As of January 8, the average start-up load of daily decompression unit was about 75%, the start-up load of refinery remained high, and the supply of domestic refined oil market was sufficient.

Lu Xingjun, product oil analyst of business news, believes that with the advance of vaccination and the favorable support of OPEC countries such as Saudi Arabia, it is expected that the oil price will still rise further. However, due to the impact of the epidemic in some parts of China recently, it is difficult to boost the terminal demand of refined oil. It is expected that the price of refined oil will rise steadily, but the increase is limited.

Spot market: driven by the rise of raw materials, the prices of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn continue to follow up. At present, the mainstream quotation of pure polyester yarn t32s in Fujian is 11500-11800 yuan / ton, with few high turnover. Jiangsu’s 32S report is around 11000, Hebei’s 10600, and the situation of strong in the South and weak in the north is maintained. The stock of yarn mills is low or they are short of goods. The recent sales of polyester and cotton yarn are acceptable, and the transaction price continues to rise. TC65 / 35 32S is near 16500-16800 in Fujian and 15700-16200 yuan / ton in Shandong. Cvc60 / 40 32S Fujian mainstream 19500-19800 quotation, Shandong 19200-19500 yuan / ton.

Upstream polyester staple fiber: futures, January 7 pf2105 contract price closed at 6848, compared with the previous trading day + 2.61%. The spot price of East China staple fiber was 6200 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton from the previous trading day. At the beginning of this year, the “waste ban order” was officially implemented, resulting in a tight supply of recycled staple fiber raw materials and higher costs. The substitution of regenerated staple fiber is weakened, and the cost of primary staple fiber is pushed up by the rise of crude oil. The short-term trend of staple fiber is stronger.

Downstream demand: domestic weaving load is stable at 75.65%, weaving operation rate is slightly lower than that of the previous statistical cycle, follow-up spring and summer clothing orders are still facing the risk of inventory and RMB appreciation last year, weaving operation rate inflection point has not yet appeared.

Suggestions: pay attention to the price of raw materials and the impact of the epidemic on the construction and return home.

Commodity index: on December 30, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 88.96, up 0.37 points from yesterday, down 16.96% from 107.13 points (May 8, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and up 7.32% from 82.89 points, the lowest point on August 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

Monitoring data show that since the water treatment plants in Henan main production areas stopped production in mid November, polyacrylamide first went down slightly, then began to fluctuate around November 20, and up to now, only a small increase of 2%. In the month and a half since the production stopped, the demand in Henan did not appear the scene of centralized outbreak, but the continuous demand for goods, which made the shortage situation of manufacturers with different polyacrylamide inventory different.

Industry situation: the domestic mainstream price of acrylonitrile, the upstream raw material, was 9300 yuan / ton in October, increased by 3000 yuan / ton in November, and returned to 12150 yuan / ton in December. During this period, the main plant dynamic: Shanghai Secco 520000 tons acrylonitrile plant has returned to normal operation. The overhaul plan of 260000 ton acrylonitrile plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, which was originally scheduled to start on December 20, has been postponed, but the specific time is not clear. The 130000 ton acrylonitrile plant in Haijiang, Shandong Province is scheduled to be restarted from December 10 to 15, but it has not been restarted yet. Jilin chemical fiber Gaocheng acrylic fiber plant was shut down on December 5, and Shanghai Petrochemical North plant was shut down on December 6. In December, Sinopec’s settlement prices of acrylonitrile products in North China and East China were 12450 yuan / ton, up 2550-2600 yuan / ton compared with last month’s settlement. Ineos’s acrylonitrile plant in Germany fell due to insufficient supply of raw propylene. Global supply is still tight, and the number of inquiries from Europe and India increased. Asahi Kasei of Japan announced that the Far East contract price in January 2021 was US $1800 / T, up US $380 / T from December. In terms of downstream demand, during the continuous shutdown period of polyacrylamide manufacturers from mid November to the end of December, the downstream demand did not increase intensively. With the gradual consumption of domestic spot stock of polyacrylamide, the shortage of supply of some manufacturers also gradually appeared, so the demand did not have a strong driving effect on the price.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, since the manufacturers in the main production areas have stopped production, the downstream demand for polyacrylamide is relatively normal, and the supply of spot stock is gradually decreasing, so some prices have slightly increased. It is said that production will resume next month, but it is difficult to resume at present. At present, the increase of supply side is limited, the seasonal purchasing pressure of demand is not big, the impact of upstream raw material price changes on manufacturers’ production stop is small, and the follow-up market is mainly expected to run smoothly.

Domestic price trend:

According to statistics, in December, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price trend was temporarily stable. At the beginning of the month, the domestic price was 4300 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the domestic PX market price was 4300 yuan / ton. The price trend was stable, with a year-on-year decline of 35.82%. The PX external price rose. The domestic PX market had a high degree of external dependence, and the higher external price had a certain positive impact on the domestic price.

In December, the price trend of domestic p-xylene market was temporarily stable. The domestic PX operation rate was about 60%. The 600000 ton new plant of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical was put into operation. The Yangzi Petrochemical plant operated stably. The Fuhai Chuang plant started one line. The Pengzhou petrochemical plant operated stably. The Yangzi Petrochemical Plant operated normally. The Jinling Petrochemical plant operated smoothly. The Qingdao Lidong plant operated at full load The petrochemical plant in Urumqi started at about 50%. The domestic supply and demand of p-xylene are normal, and the price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The international crude oil price rose in December, while the PX external price rose. As of the 25th, the closing price in Asia was US $601-591 / T FOB South Korea and US $619-621 / T CFR China. Recently, the PX unit in Asia has been operating stably. As a whole, the operation rate of PX unit in Asia is about 60%, and the supply of PX in Asia is normal. The PX external closing price in December rose mainly, while the domestic PX unit is second The price trend of toluene market is temporarily stable.

With the recovery of foreign economy, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose at the end of December, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $48.23/barrel. The price of Brent crude oil futures market rose, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $51.34/barrel. The international oil price closed higher, mainly due to the interest rate impact of the post brexit trade agreement signed between the United Kingdom and the European Union, which led to the rise of crude oil price and the price of p-xylene The trend is temporarily stable.

In December, the price trend of downstream PTA market rose sharply, and the domestic PTA spot market rose. By the end of the month, the average price of PTA market was about 3700 yuan / ton, and the PTA price rose by 9.73% in December. PTA supply continued to be at a high level. Due to the limited maintenance efforts, the operation rate of domestic PTA plant continued to maintain about 90% in the first half of December. With the maintenance of 4.5 million tons PTA plant in Fuhai, the operation rate of PTA industry dropped to around 85% by December 25. The domestic textile market is getting better. The downstream weaving market has a large number of orders, but the stamina is insufficient. The turnover of winter fabrics has declined month on month. The spring fabric orders are relatively limited, and the power on rate has been reduced to 76%. The price of PTA in the downstream has risen sharply, which has a certain positive support for the price of the upstream PX market, and the price trend of PX market is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business news agency, believes that the crude oil shock is near the 10 month high, and the cost support still exists. In addition, the off-season characteristics of demand terminal textile are gradually highlighted, and the supply and demand side of PTA is lack of good. PTA market is facing the risk of decline, but the PTA market price is at a high level, and it is expected that the market price of p-xylene will rise in January.