1、 Polyoxymethylene market price trend chart

Price curve of paraformaldehyde

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of paraformaldehyde at the beginning of this week was 6500 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 6433 yuan / ton, down 1.03%.

2、 Market analysis

On February 18, Shandong formaldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of paraformaldehyde, offered 6000 yuan / ton of paraformaldehyde (96) including tax, which was the same as that of the year before. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of polyoxymethylene. The ex factory price of Polyoxymethylene (96) including tax is 6300 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than that of a year ago. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 10000 tons of polyoxymethylene, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory price including tax 7000 yuan / ton, the price is the same as before. After the Spring Festival, enterprises have resumed work one after another, the market wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the enterprise quotation is relatively stable. The price of POM was higher before the festival, but some enterprises reduced their price after the festival.

The upstream raw material methanol, according to the monitoring data of the business community, recently the domestic methanol market has recovered in a narrow range. As of February 20, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 2267 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 3.92% and a year-on-year increase of 14.09%.

3、 Future forecast

Business community polyoxymethylene analysts expect that after the festival polyoxymethylene stable operation in the short term.

On February 16, the spot price of benzene in the United States was significantly higher, because the temperature along the Gulf coast of Mexico dropped below freezing point, and many refineries shut down, but the downstream styrene price was still strong.

Spot benzene prices, based on DDP, rose 8 cents from Friday to 264 cents per gallon on February 16. Due to the holiday in the United States, there is no benzene price on February 15. Sources said spot activity had increased.

On February 12, supported by downstream styrene, the spot price of benzene began to rise. Production problems in Europe pushed the price of styrene in the region up to US $1410 per ton, which later boosted US pricing.

Us benzene prices were further supported by the temperature below zero, which brought down a number of US refineries. It is reported that ExxonMobil’s Beicheng plant with a benzene production capacity of 730000 tons / year has failed. TCEQ reported that total closed its Port Arthur plant with a benzene capacity of 104000 T / a after losing steam. Citroe closed its Corpus Christi plant with a benzene production capacity of 167000 tons per year. In addition, shell has closed its dilpeck refinery, which has a benzene capacity of 217000 tons per year. The coppers Christie plant with 343000 T / a flint hills benzene production capacity in the United States has also stopped production.

A total of 1.561 million tons / year of benzene production capacity is affected by storm related shutdown, which means that up to 4277 tons of benzene may be lost every day along the Gulf coast of the United States. In addition to the storm related shutdown, marathon crude is also preparing to maintain its Texas refinery, which has an improved unit with a benzene capacity of 400000 tons per year. The maintenance is expected to last about six weeks and may increase benzene production by 46000 tons on the market.

With the decrease of benzene production, downstream styrene producers are also facing problems. According to sources, Benlin has closed its factories in Texas City and beport, with production capacity of 500000 tons / year and 771000 tons / year respectively. On February 16, the spot price of styrene was US $1200 / ton FOB USG.

At the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the overall price of Shandong’s civil gas market has been pushed up, and it is happy to rebound. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of LPG in Shandong market was 3550.00 yuan / ton on February 9 before the festival and 3900.00 yuan / ton on February 18 after the festival. The rebound rate after the festival was 9.86%, up 6.07% compared with February 1.

As of February 18, the mainstream prices of LPG in various regions of China are as follows:

Specification ﹣ mode of transportation ﹣ region ﹣ mainstream quotation

Civil gas and automobile transportation in North China: RMB 3810-3900 / T

Civil gas and automobile transportation in East China: RMB 3810-3850 / T

Civil gas and automobile transportation in South China: 3978-4100 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in Shandong Province: 3800-4050 yuan / ton

In February, the overall trend of LPG market is weak, and all regions in China are in a downward trend, but there are some differences in the decline range. Shandong civil gas market prices fell significantly before the festival. On the 3rd, it began to decline continuously. Before the festival, due to the decline in transportation, the downstream replenishment has ended one after another, and they have withdrawn from the market to wait and see. The market demand is limited, and the transaction atmosphere is significantly lower than that in the early stage. However, the manufacturers’ demand for stock arrangement before the festival has not been fully completed, and the prices are continuously lowered for shipment. Most manufacturers adjust according to their own situation, and the overall weakness is the main.

After the festival, the overall LPG civil market rose to varying degrees, and the market rebounded. Shandong market actively pushed up on February 18, with an increase of 300-400 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival. At present, the mainstream price of civil gas in Shandong market is about 3950-4050 yuan / ton. After the festival, international crude oil continued to rise, the news is good for the civil gas market. And after the festival, the demand for storage and replenishment in the downstream is positive. The overall delivery situation of manufacturers is good, inventory is mostly at a controllable level, and most regions are actively pushing up.

However, the LPG futures market fell slightly, with limited positive effect on the spot market. On February 18, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2103 was 3350, the highest price was 3377, the lowest price was 3289, the closing price was 3314, the former settlement price was 3335, the settlement price was 3326, down 21, or 0.63%. The trading volume was 47116, the position was 37974, and the daily increase was 1817. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

Before the festival, the price continuously bottomed to a relatively low level. At present, the market has rebounded. The rise of international crude oil has brought obvious support to the market. In addition, the demand for downstream storage and replenishment at the end of the holiday has made the overall transaction atmosphere of the market active. Most of the manufacturers’ inventories are controllable, and it is expected that Shandong civil gas market may still rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business community, as of February 7, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 14150 yuan / ton, up 1.07% from 14000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and down 22.11% from the same period last year.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business news agency, as of February 7, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 19766.67 yuan / ton, up 0.57% from 19666.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and down 15.21% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

R22, this week the refrigerant R22 market is relatively stable, the price change is not much. Near the Spring Festival, downstream demand stagnates, traders continue to withdraw from the market, the price is stable operation, the market transaction atmosphere is weak, there is no obvious price fluctuation before the festival, and the industry is more bearish after the festival. At present, R22 market quotation is around 13500-15000 yuan / ton, Shandong quotation is about 14000 yuan / ton, Zhejiang quotation is about 14000-15000 yuan / ton, Hunan quotation is about 14000-14500 yuan / ton, Shanghai quotation is about 14000 yuan / ton, short-term price is stable.

R134a, the refrigerant R134a market is stable this week. The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is rising, and the cost support is strong, but the demand drags down the market, the short-term market is relatively stable, and the price is difficult to change before the festival. At present, R134a market quotation is mostly in the range of 19000-22000 yuan / ton, Shandong quotation is about 20000 yuan / ton, Zhejiang quotation is about 19000-21500 / ton, Hunan quotation is about 20500-21000 / ton, Jiangsu quotation is about 22000 / ton, Shanghai quotation is about 20000 yuan / ton, and the short-term price is stable.

Hydrofluoric acid as raw material. On February 7, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 10000-11000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price trend of on-site merchants increased slightly. Domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers had a general operating rate, and the supply of on-site goods was slightly tight. Affected by the rising price of fluorite, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry was general, and the on-site purchase was mainly on demand. It is expected that the on-site price will increase slightly in the later stage High.

Trichloromethane: on February 5, the market of methane chloride in Shandong went up, and the market price of methane chloride in Shandong went up. The mainstream quotation of dichloromethane market was 2780-2800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of trichloromethane market was about 2240-2300 yuan / ton. At present, the market is dominated by shock adjustment. The trading situation of the industry is general, the enterprises start to reduce the burden, the inventory is low, and the upstream liquid chlorine market is high, The price of methane chloride was well supported, and the demand of downstream market was flat, so the market support was insufficient. Shock adjustment is expected in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the current cost support is strong, but the market has entered the holiday mode, demand stagnates, the price is not easy to fluctuate, and price stabilization is the main operation. It is expected that the price of R22 and R134a will run smoothly before the festival.

1、 Price trend

This week, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong rose, from 2060.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2126.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 3.24%, 28.89% year-on-year. Overall, the urea market rose this week, with the urea commodity index at 98.91 on February 5.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. Yangmei plain urea quoted 2150 yuan / ton this weekend, up 90 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2110 yuan / ton this weekend, up 60 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 2120 yuan / ton this weekend, up 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

On the demand side, the agricultural procurement in the mainstream areas is cautious, and there is an appropriate amount of fertilizer preparation. Affected by the air pollution control, some plate enterprises shut down, the starting load of compound fertilizer enterprises is not high, and the industrial demand is limited. On the supply side, some gas head enterprises plan to resume production, and urea production is gradually increasing.

Internationally, the international urea price has soared since January, and the price in some regions has risen to the highest level in recent years, and the price is still expected to rise in the short term. The rise of international urea price has helped to increase the domestic urea export price. At present, the export price of urea is basically in line with the domestic price. Affected by the continuous rise of international urea price, the domestic urea price is not high either It’s going up.

From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain: the overall price of upstream products of urea this week fell greatly: the price of liquefied natural gas dropped sharply, from 4183.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3226.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a decrease of 22.87%, a year-on-year increase of 4.42%; the price of liquid ammonia this week was temporarily stable, with a quotation of 3383.33 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 23.33%. Melamine in the downstream of urea rose this week, from 7033.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7200.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 2.37%, 21.35% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, urea cost support is weak this week.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of February, the urea market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand is general, the industrial demand is limited, the urea supply is increasing, the international urea price is rising, and the domestic urea market is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of February 5, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 403 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as the price in early February (February 1). Compared with the price in early January (reference average price on January 1 was 396 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 7 yuan / ton, or 1.68%.

With the Spring Festival approaching, the domestic phosphorus ore is in stable operation

In February, near the Spring Festival, China’s domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole continues to maintain a stable consolidation operation, downstream demand is gradually weakening, downstream users have basically suspended receiving new orders, the market trading atmosphere is cold, the price adjustment before the festival is limited, it is heard that the actual transaction price in Guizhou is slightly low, and enterprises mainly focus on the delivery of early orders and a small amount of shipping.

At present, the phosphorus ore market in the first week of February is weak and stable. As of February 5, the price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore in Hubei Province is around 370-390 yuan / ton, and the price is basically stable. Guizhou region: 30% grade phosphate ore car plate quotation reference 340-380 yuan / ton nearby; 28% grade phosphate ore car plate quotation reference 280-320 yuan / ton nearby. Guizhou Xinxin group mainly supplies more than 28% quality phosphate rock. At present, the phosphate mine is still in operation. There is a pressure plan during the Spring Festival. The price of 30% phosphate rock is around 380 yuan / ton. Guangxi region: 28% of the price of phosphate rock slab is around 290-320 yuan / ton, and 30% of the price of phosphate rock slab is 340-370 yuan / ton. The quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore car plate in Guangxi songgan business is around 350 yuan / T; the quotation of 28% grade phosphate ore car plate is around 300 yuan / T.

In terms of downstream and yellow phosphorus, the domestic yellow phosphorus market continued to maintain a stable finishing operation, and the downstream orders received before the festival were small. As of February 5, the domestic yellow phosphorus reference price was 16700 yuan / ton, up 0.2% compared with February 1 (16666.67 yuan / ton). Phosphoric acid market is in weak and stable operation before the festival.

New orders in the lower reaches are gradually reduced, and the market of phosphorus ore is mainly stable

With the coming of the new year, downstream enterprises in the domestic phosphorus ore market have suspended receiving orders one after another, and the mines are mainly supplying orders from old customers in the early stage. Phosphorus ore analysts from the business community believe that the phosphorus ore market is mainly stable on the eve of the Spring Festival.

As of February 15, 2021 or as permitted by the contract, Dow Chemical will, on behalf of itself and its applicable consolidated subsidiaries (“Dow”), increase the prices of all grades and packaging types of the following TDI products in North America by US $0.01 per pound: Product Name: voranate.

polyethylene

In 2020, the import volume of HDPE will be 9.1 million tons, an increase of 14% over the previous year; LLDPE will be 6.7 million tons, an increase of 17%; LDPE will be 3.4 million tons, a decrease of 1%; EVA will be 1 million tons, a decrease of 3%. Production in North America and Eastern Europe increased significantly, while supply in the Middle East grew little.

China has recovered rapidly from the pandemic, and by June 2020, the import volume of ethylene polymer has set a new record. In the third quarter, the import volume of ethylene polymer continued to maintain a high level, but slowed down in the fourth quarter. During this period, the import volume usually surged before the decline of manufacturing industry. Due to the Lunar New Year (February 12, 2021). The shortage of containers may lead to a decrease in quantity and a rise in price, with an average price of US $1096 per ton in December.

Despite a substantial increase in China’s total imports, supply from the Middle East grew by only 1% to 9.2 million tons. Imports of polymers from Saudi Arabia, Iran and Qatar decreased, but supply from the UAE increased strongly.

Supply in the Asia Pacific region increased by 7% to 8.2 million tons. Imports from North America (the United States and Canada) increased by 65% to 1.8 million tons. Imports from Eastern Europe (mainly Russia) surged 204% to 1.1 million tons.

polypropylene

In 2020, China’s polypropylene import will increase by 25% to 6.8 million tons.

Imports from the Asia Pacific region increased by 24% to 4.9 million tons; imports from the Middle East increased by 26% to 1.4 million tons, and all other regions. From August to December, the average price soared to $1190 per ton.

China’s largest and fastest-growing import sources include South Korea, Taiwan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, India, Japan and Malaysia.

Due to the epidemic and the Spring Festival, imports were slow in the first quarter. However, with the epidemic under more control and the increasing demand for PP products at home and abroad, imports reached a record high of 850000 tons in June. Then the output slowed down, stabilized at about 600000 tons per month from August to November, but dropped to 554000 tons in December.

Given the traditionally strong annual import volume since December, at least from December 2016, the annual import volume has been strong since December, as buyers increase production before each lunar new year (February 12, 2021). Rising freight rates, container shortages and slowing demand may be factors to consider.

In January 2021, the domestic tin ingot Market rose after the shock. The average price of the domestic market was 151887.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 170975 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 12.57%.

On January 28, the tin commodity index was 87.09, up 0.01 points from yesterday, down 13.13% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.25 points (2011-09-05), and up 103.20% from the lowest point of 42.86 points on December 09, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

After the futures market entered 2021, with the weak rebound of the US dollar index, financial stimulus measures of various countries to accelerate economic recovery and other macro positive factors, Shanghai tin made efforts from the 160000 mark to constantly set a new high, up to now the highest to 174000, a new high since its listing. In terms of inventory, London Metal Exchange (LME) reported 880 metric tons of lungshi’s inventory on the 28th, 25 metric tons less than the previous trading day’s inventory. The current inventory remains at a low level compared with that in recent five years, and lungshi’s de inventory is still expected to increase. The shortage of global tin market further increased, leading the rise of Shanghai tin. According to the latest statistics of the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs), there will be a shortage of 16900 tons of tin in the world from January to November 2020.

In terms of ore supply, more than 90% of China’s tin mines depend on Myanmar’s imports. In 2020, affected by the production reduction of Myanmar’s local tin mines, China’s import data is significantly lower than in previous years. In December last year, China imported about 16000 tons of tin concentrate, with a month on month decrease of 7.82% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.12%. However, December is already the month with more tin concentrate imports in 2020. In 2020, China’s total import of tin concentrate was 158000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.27%. Affected by the public health situation in Myanmar, production and transportation were restricted again in January, and the import volume is expected to continue to decline in January.

In the spot market, with the futures price rising all the way, the domestic spot market price also rose strongly, and has now broken the 170000 mark. At present, there are few sources of goods in circulation in the spot market, and the performance of price increase and discount is strong. As of the end of the month, there are few quoting traders. As of the 29th, the price discount for 2103 contract is about 200-400 yuan / ton for ordinary cloud words and 500-1000 yuan / ton for small brands. In February, the stock preparation before the festival basically ended, the market fear of high sentiment was high, the overall transaction was weak, and there was no market for price.

In the future, the business community believes that the current spot market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and subject to the restrictions of imported tin concentrate, the tight supply of ore end will continue for a period of time in the future. It is expected that the situation of spot market with price but without market before the festival will continue, and Shanghai Tin Company may continue to set a new record in the future.

Relevant data:

From January to November 2020, the world reported refined tin production decreased by 8000 tons compared with the same period last year. China’s apparent demand increased by 17.7% over the same period last year. From January to November 2020, the global demand for tin will be 348000 tons, an increase of 2.9% over the same period last year. Japan’s demand is 18800 tons, down 19% from January to November 2019. In November 2020, the global refined tin output is 30900 tons, and the consumption is 33100 tons.

According to the data released by Indonesia’s Ministry of trade, Indonesia’s exports of refined tin totaled 4551.75 tons in November. Indonesia is one of the most important tin exporting countries in the world. Data showed that refined tin exports in November decreased by 1.3% compared with the same period last year, but increased slightly compared with the previous month.

On December 25, the Ministry of industry and information technology approved 669 industry standards, including 104 non-ferrous metal industry standards and 19 rare earth industry standards. It is reported that nine stannum related industry standards will be implemented from April 1, 2021.

Since late January, the bisphenol a market has ignited again and soared to the sky. It has performed very well in the chemical industry sector. First, it soared for three days, with an increase of nearly 30%. After two days of market adjustment under the slight exclusion of the terminal, a small number of shippers made profits and actively shipped. The market was stable and declined. However, this week, the good came again, the market continued to rise. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average market offer was 13033 yuan / ton on January 17, 16583 yuan / ton on January 21, up 27.24%. On January 27, the average market offer was 17250 yuan / ton, up 32.35% in total. At present, the supply of goods in the market is limited. With the coming of the new year, the logistics in the downstream is blocked, and the goods in the downstream are still available. The transaction may be high before the year.

Under the situation of running out of ammunition and food, the demand hit again, and the extreme shortage of market supply was the main reason for the re ignition of bisphenol a market. After the end of the surge in the fourth quarter of 2020, the market fell sharply and plummeted. The vast majority of traders actively shipped goods, leading to the extreme shortage of goods in the market. And after the sharp rise and fall, many traders suffered serious losses. From the point of view of mentality, the sharp rise was the aspiration of the cargo holders. With the aggravation of the epidemic situation in the north and approaching the end of the new year, the cargo sources in the hands of the cargo holders actively sold. After a round of selling, the market gradually stabilized. When the purchasing heat of the downstream increased again, the market was seriously tense and the cargo holders were reluctant to sell.

Wind power make up for the fall started the “first shot”, epoxy resin industry is expected to improve again, pulling up bisphenol a market to rise again. It is understood that “Guangdong Energy Bureau recently released a draft for opinions on promoting the orderly development of offshore wind power. The opinions point out that it is necessary to expand the installed capacity, that is, 4gw offshore wind power will be put into operation by the end of 2021, 15gw by the end of 2025, that is, large-scale production of more than 8mW offshore wind power, and strive to achieve parity by the end of 2024. Guangdong Province decided to relay local subsidies: the subsidy scale is 4.5gw; the time limit is 2022 and 2023; the subsidy scale in 2022 is not more than 2.1gw, and the subsidy intensity is 1500 yuan / kW; the subsidy scale in 2023 is not more than 2.4gw, and the subsidy intensity is 1000 yuan / kW; the electricity price on the grid is local coal-fired electricity price; there will be no subsidy from 2024. ” This favorable policy is good for the terminal wind power industry. With the improvement of wind power industry and electronic industry, the epoxy resin will be increased, which will be conducive to the promotion of bisphenol a market. The epoxy resin market is also rising from 20000 yuan / ton after the New Year holiday to 25500-26000 yuan / ton at present. The factory orders are in short supply, and the terminal can only queue up to pick up the goods. After the downstream epoxy resin market continued to rise, the plant operation rate increased and the demand for bisphenol A increased.

From the perspective of the whole phenol ketone industry chain, the overall rise is the main, and the raw material side also presents a stable upward trend. The phenol Market is running at a high level, and the price is mainly supported by the shippers. There is little pressure on the market supply. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the phenol Market in East China offers 6700 yuan / ton. However, the acetone market rose sharply for two days, and the market offer remained high. The negotiation range of East China market was 7500-7700 yuan / ton, and the factories followed the upward trend of 350-450 yuan / ton. After the sharp rise of styrene in East China’s pure benzene industry, the phenol ketone industry chain was in a good state, and all of them were red from top to bottom.

According to the business community, bisphenol a market will still maintain this trend in the short term, but the current market supply is limited, the transaction is difficult to improve significantly, and the lower and lower reaches of high prices are still dominated by rigid demand. BPA market in East China is expected to remain at 18000 yuan / ton