Commodity index: on December 30, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 88.96, up 0.37 points from yesterday, down 16.96% from 107.13 points (May 8, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and up 7.32% from 82.89 points, the lowest point on August 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

Monitoring data show that since the water treatment plants in Henan main production areas stopped production in mid November, polyacrylamide first went down slightly, then began to fluctuate around November 20, and up to now, only a small increase of 2%. In the month and a half since the production stopped, the demand in Henan did not appear the scene of centralized outbreak, but the continuous demand for goods, which made the shortage situation of manufacturers with different polyacrylamide inventory different.

Industry situation: the domestic mainstream price of acrylonitrile, the upstream raw material, was 9300 yuan / ton in October, increased by 3000 yuan / ton in November, and returned to 12150 yuan / ton in December. During this period, the main plant dynamic: Shanghai Secco 520000 tons acrylonitrile plant has returned to normal operation. The overhaul plan of 260000 ton acrylonitrile plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, which was originally scheduled to start on December 20, has been postponed, but the specific time is not clear. The 130000 ton acrylonitrile plant in Haijiang, Shandong Province is scheduled to be restarted from December 10 to 15, but it has not been restarted yet. Jilin chemical fiber Gaocheng acrylic fiber plant was shut down on December 5, and Shanghai Petrochemical North plant was shut down on December 6. In December, Sinopec’s settlement prices of acrylonitrile products in North China and East China were 12450 yuan / ton, up 2550-2600 yuan / ton compared with last month’s settlement. Ineos’s acrylonitrile plant in Germany fell due to insufficient supply of raw propylene. Global supply is still tight, and the number of inquiries from Europe and India increased. Asahi Kasei of Japan announced that the Far East contract price in January 2021 was US $1800 / T, up US $380 / T from December. In terms of downstream demand, during the continuous shutdown period of polyacrylamide manufacturers from mid November to the end of December, the downstream demand did not increase intensively. With the gradual consumption of domestic spot stock of polyacrylamide, the shortage of supply of some manufacturers also gradually appeared, so the demand did not have a strong driving effect on the price.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, since the manufacturers in the main production areas have stopped production, the downstream demand for polyacrylamide is relatively normal, and the supply of spot stock is gradually decreasing, so some prices have slightly increased. It is said that production will resume next month, but it is difficult to resume at present. At present, the increase of supply side is limited, the seasonal purchasing pressure of demand is not big, the impact of upstream raw material price changes on manufacturers’ production stop is small, and the follow-up market is mainly expected to run smoothly.