1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic xylene market price continued to rise this week. On December 13, the price of xylene was 4010 yuan / ton; this Sunday (December 20) was at 4060 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton or 1.25% compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

During the week, the listed price of xylene in East China of Sinopec increased by 100 yuan / ton, while that in Central China increased by 50 yuan / ton. Xylene price is supported by crude oil price; downstream PTA, PX, ox demand is weak; current gasoline blending price has obvious impact on xylene price. This week, the East China port xylene inventory was about 106700 tons, down 4300 tons compared with last week.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil this week showed an overall upward trend. The US economic stimulus plan negotiations are expected to reach an agreement, and the crude oil market is boosted. Compared with December 11, Brent was up $1.94/barrel, or 3.88%; WTI was up $2.49/barrel, or 5.33%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 22.16%, and WTI decreased by 18.97%.

In the downstream, PX market, the listed price of domestic SINOPEC enterprises was about 4300 yuan / ton this week, which was stable compared with last week, with a year-on-year decrease of 35.82%. The supply of goods in PX yard is normal and the goods are in good condition. PX prices rose this week. As of the end of the week, the Asian PX market closed at US $608.5/t FOB Korea and US $626.5/t CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, PTA price in East China rose by 156.25 yuan / ton or 4.47% compared with last week. PTA supply pressure is obvious, the overall supply and demand remain pessimistic, PTA market there is a risk of weakening. In addition, in December, the terminal weaving industry has seen a gradual decline in the starting load after new year’s day. After the winter order is digested, it will stop in large area during the Spring Festival every year. Therefore, the demand for the subsequent terminal will be low and the purchase of raw materials will be gradually reduced.

In terms of ox market, ox prices continued to fall this week. The price of ox in East China was 5500 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan / ton or 1.08% from last week. The supply of o-benzene is stable, the cost is stable, and the downstream demand is weak. Overall, the upward momentum of o-benzene market still exists, but the downward pressure is greater.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling and weekly EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States, the progress in the research and development of new coronal vaccine, the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market.

Crude oil prices rose as a whole, with strong support from the cost side. But downstream demand is weak, xylene price upward breakthrough resistance is greater. We will focus on the trend of gasoline blended price, and it is expected that there will be upward momentum at the end of the year. Overall, it is expected that domestic xylene prices will continue to rise next week.