I. price trend
This week’s propane market fell first and then rose. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propane market was 4025 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 4025 yuan / ton, with the week’s rise and fall of 0%. The price mainly fluctuated in a narrow range, 8.26% lower than the same period last year.
II. Analysis of influencing factors
Product: the domestic propane market fell first and then rose this week, with a general trading atmosphere. As of November 15, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped using propane for its own use, and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group Co., Ltd. had no propane in stock, so the price was not offered temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 4000 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4000 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4120 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4130 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 4050 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of propane of Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4100 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3950 yuan / ton.
This week, the propane market adjusted sideways, and the trading atmosphere slightly improved. At the beginning of the week, the international crude oil fell continuously, and the trend of the liquefied gas market was weak. In addition, the intake gas resources were abundant and the price was low, which hit the enthusiasm of the downstream market. The market transaction atmosphere was weak, and the demand was average. The main enterprises delivered profits and the price fell slightly. Later in the week, with the slight increase of international crude oil and the decrease of propane price, the mentality of downstream replenishment was stimulated. The trading atmosphere was gradually improved. The market rose and fell mutually, and Shandong market recovered after the slight increase.
Liquefied gas: the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market rose steadily this week, with no obvious fluctuation. The recovery of liquefied gas market has stimulated the mentality of propane downstream replenishment and driven the atmosphere of propane transaction. At the beginning of the week, international crude oil continued to fall. In the face of news that the market continued to be bullish, petrochemical enterprises cut prices, and most manufacturers followed suit. The downstream demand is flat, and the upstream traders mainly deliver goods. Thursday’s slight rise in crude oil boosted the market, but in the north of the heating season, terminal demand did not improve substantially. After the price reduction, the shipment has improved, the inventory pressure has been eased, and the manufacturers have increased slightly.
Saudi Aramco announced in November CP that all of the propanbutane had been increased. Propane rose to $430 / ton, up $10 / ton from last month; butane rose $445 / ton, up $10 / ton from last month. The c.i.f. cost of long-term propane is about 3844 yuan / ton, and butane is about 3916 yuan / ton.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 45th week of 2019 (11.11-11.15), there are 19 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are hydrochloric acid (19.18%), chloroform (12.55%) and R22 (4.80%). There are 27 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products decreased were epichlorohydrin (- 9.22%), aniline (- 7.50%), titanium dioxide (- 3.58%). This week’s average was 0.18%.
III. future forecast
The propane analyst of the business agency thinks that: at present, the price is relatively low, coupled with the gradual cooling of the weather, the downstream replenishment cycle is shortened, the manufacturer’s mentality is relatively strong, and the deep decline intention is not strong. The market is basically stable, with the upstream discharging and shipping, and the downstream replenishing as required. It is expected that the trend will be stable and rising next week.