I. price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of octanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of main octanol in Shandong fell from 7000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6933.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.95%, down 25.85% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the octanol market fell slightly this week, with the November 15 octanol commodity index at 50.98.
II. Market analysis
(I) products:
At present, the operating rate of domestic octanol plant is acceptable; Hualu Hengsheng’s 80000 T / a octanol plant is operating normally, and this week’s offer is firm; the annual capacity of Jiangsu Huachang Chemical octanol plant is 80000 tons, and there is no maintenance plan.
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This week, the factory quotation of main octanol manufacturers in Shandong slightly fell: hualuhengsheng’s factory quotation of octanol this weekend was 7000 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jianlan chemical’s price of octanol this weekend was 6900 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton lower than the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s price of octanol this weekend was 6900 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton lower than the beginning of the week.
(II) industrial chain:
Upstream raw material Market: propylene market rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 7320.77 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7377.92 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.78%, down 10.09% year on year. The price of raw materials in the upstream market rose slightly, which had a positive impact on the price of octanol due to the impact of supply and demand.
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Downstream market: the price of DOP factory fell slightly this week. DOP’s quotation dropped from 7433.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7366.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.90%, down 22.05% year on year. Downstream customers have general enthusiasm for octanol procurement, general demand for octanol, and low price consolidation of DOP has a negative impact on octanol market. The aftermarket operators mostly wait and see the trend of DOP.
III. future forecast
In late November, Shandong octanol market trend or low consolidation. After the adjustment in October, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The upstream propylene price rose slightly, and the cost support was strong, but the downstream DOP market was low and consolidated, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was general. At present, the octanol inventory in Shandong is low, and the delivery is tight. According to the octanol analysts of the business agency, the octanol market in Shandong in late November may be in low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.
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