1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic toluene market closed down slightly this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3410 yuan / ton, down 0.58% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Toluene prices fell slightly this week. Sinopec’s enterprises listed toluene price stable this week. The port inventory is still high, and the pressure to go to the warehouse still exists. The market is oversupply, the downstream blended oil and solvent demand is general, the price is slightly weak, and there is a slight fluctuation in recent years. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3350 yuan / ton. The future market continued to pay attention to the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on crude oil supply, the development of new crown vaccine, the impact of economic restart and recovery on crude oil demand, the global economic recovery and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.

Upstream, crude oil, oil prices rose slightly this week, OPEC helped oil prices, but the epidemic situation and economic downturn risk limit oil prices. As of Friday, Brent rose $0.575/barrel to close at $41.65/barrel, up 1.4% month on month. Russia and Saudi Arabia held their second and unusual teleconference this week to discuss the OPEC + agreement, with officials of the organization warning on Friday that the oil market could be weak in 2021. In the short term, close attention will be paid to the upcoming Joint Ministerial oversight committee meeting on October 19.

In terms of TDI in the downstream, the trend fell slightly this week. According to market news, the listing price of Shanghai BASF TDI in October was 23000 yuan / ton, with an increase of 1000 yuan / ton on a month on month basis. The settlement in September was 17200 yuan / ton, and the month on month increase was 4100 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain a stable trend. In terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week was about 4450 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk was about 537 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 555 US dollars / ton CFR China. PX market is expected to maintain a stable trend in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business society: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of American oil wells and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the second outbreak of global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the dollar index and stock market linkage. Next week, we will focus on the progress of a new round of stimulus measures in the United States, as well as the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market will remain weak and stable next week.

The international crude oil fluctuates in a narrow range, which has limited support for the domestic asphalt market, and the “silver ten” peak demand season of the asphalt market has not appeared, and the domestic asphalt price has decreased slightly. According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, the asphalt price on October 16 was 2267 yuan / ton, down 1.31% from the beginning of the week.

Saudi Arabia cut crude oil prices in the middle of the week; demand for crude oil in Europe has been declining due to the impact of the new crown; Saudi Arabia has put pressure on OPEC and Russia to reduce crude oil production; EIA data show that US crude oil inventories fell by 3.818 million barrels in the week of October 9. The international crude oil market is intertwined with long and short news, and the international oil price is operating in a narrow range. WTI crude oil prices rose 1.28% and Brent crude oil prices rose 0.19%.

October is also the traditional demand peak season of asphalt market, but under the background of high supply of asphalt and less than expected demand of terminal market, the asphalt market is not prosperous in peak season. In October, the temperature in northern China will gradually decrease, and some projects in Northeast and Northwest China will enter the finishing stage; due to the influence of rainfall in some areas of South China, the terminal demand of asphalt will be slightly affected; in North China and East China, there is a large demand for asphalt, and the same supply of asphalt is sufficient, which has a limited pulling effect on the asphalt market price. On the whole, the domestic asphalt market is oversupplied, and the asphalt market is under pressure, and the domestic asphalt price falls slightly.

Analysts of business agency believe that the international crude oil market is lack of good, and the international crude oil price will continue to be under pressure; although there is rigid demand and support in the asphalt market, the supply pressure is large, and the domestic asphalt price is expected to fall steadily.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of October 16, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 6533 yuan / ton. Compared with October 12, the average price of domestic n-butanol increased by 183 yuan / ton, or 2.89%; compared with October 1, the average price of domestic n-butanol increased by 200 yuan / ton, or 3.16%.

This week, the market of n-butanol concentrated on high-end operation

The market of n-butanol has been rising this week. The high level of raw propylene supports the cost of n-butanol. The market trend of butyl ester in the downstream is good, which also gives market confidence. At present, the market of n-butanol is conducted smoothly up and down, and the trading atmosphere is good. The average quotation price of domestic mainstream regions is 6533 yuan / ton. Among them, the mainstream quotation of n-butanol in South China is around 6900 yuan / ton, and the high-end price is increased to 7000 yuan / ton; the mainstream quotation of n-butanol in North China is 6500-6600 yuan / ton, the mainstream quotation of n-butanol in East China is 6700-6800 yuan / ton, and the high-end quotation is 6900 yuan / ton. As of the 16th, Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 6500 yuan / ton of n-butanol, up 200 yuan / ton within the week, Shandong lihuayi’s ex factory offer of n-butanol was 6500 yuan / ton, with an increase of 150 yuan / ton during the week, and that of Wanhua chemical in North China was 6600 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton during the week.

On the upstream side, on October 15, the propylene market prices in Shandong Province fell slightly. According to the price chart of the business agency, since October 1, the price of propylene has remained stable on the whole, and the prices of some enterprises have gone up and down slightly. On Thursday, only one enterprise’s price dropped slightly, while other enterprises continued to keep stable. The market turnover is now between 7480 yuan / ton and 7650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7500 yuan / ton. Recently, part of the propylene plant maintenance, the overall supply is small tension.

Stable demand for n-butanol at low inventory level

At present, the inventory level of factories and ports is on the low side, the position of middlemen is concentrated, and the enterprise’s spot offer is high. The main downstream butyl ester demand for raw materials is stable, and it is expected that the high-end of n-butanol market will be strong in the short term.

The sulfur commodity index on September 29 was 46.64, up 0.37 points compared with yesterday, 55.08% lower than 103.84 points (2011-11-02), and 80.85% higher than the lowest point of 25.79 on February 24, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of sulfur production in East China was 850.00 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.79%. On the 29th, domestic refineries adjusted their prices according to their own shipment situation. The quotation of solid sulfur in East China was increased by 20-50 yuan / ton. The sulfur quotation in North China and Shandong was temporarily stable, and the sulfur market remained stable and upward trend. Near the double festival, refineries in various regions of China maintain low inventory operation, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market is mainly cautious and wait-and-see. The mainstream prices of solid sulfur and liquid sulfur in North China of SINOPEC are 710-800 yuan / T and 660-720 yuan / T; those of Sinopec in East China are 860-1060 yuan / ton and 760-900 yuan / ton; those in Shandong Province of SINOPEC are 840-850 yuan / ton and 840-850 yuan / ton respectively.

The market of sulfuric acid rose slightly. The inventory of sulfuric acid enterprises in Shandong remained low, and the downstream procurement was stable, and the market transaction atmosphere was good. In the aspect of phosphate fertilizer, the market export and domestic demand were stable, the price trend of Monoammonium and diammonium was stable, fertilizer use in autumn entered the end stage, and the market was stable in the later stage.

Aftermarket forecast: at present, the price of domestic sulfur market is stable, and the quotation of sulfur enterprises is mainly stable. It is close to the National Day holiday, and the atmosphere of the festival is strong. It is expected that the sulfur market will be stable in the short term.

Price trend:

According to the business agency data monitoring, this week, the o-benzene contract quotation is stable. As of September 27, Sinopec has offered 4400.00 yuan / ton of o-xylene in East China and 4400 yuan / ton in North China, which is stable compared with the beginning of the week, and the market of o-xylene is temporarily stable.

Upstream market of o-benzene

It can be seen from the mixed xylene price trend chart that the mixed xylene price of o-xylene raw material fluctuated and fell this week, and the cost of o-xylene decreased, which was negative for the o-xylene market.

As can be seen from WTI crude oil price trend chart, the crude oil market this week fell by 1.82%. The crude oil price fluctuated and fell, the pressure of the cost drop of the downstream industry chain increased, the market of the downstream industry chain was negative, and the market of o-benzene was negative.

Trend of downstream products

It can be seen from the phthalic anhydride price trend chart that the phthalic anhydride price fluctuated this week, and the phthalic anhydride market was strong and stable, which was good for the o-benzene market.

Future forecast:

Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst at the business club, believes that this week’s fall in crude oil prices will have a negative impact on the downstream industrial chain, and the o-benzene market will be negative. The upstream mixed xylene price will drop, the cost of o-xylene will drop, and the rising power of o-benzene will decrease, and the downward pressure will increase. The overall situation of the market after o-xylene will be weak and stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the large data list of business associations, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on September 24 was 4866.67 yuan / ton, up 1.04% compared with the beginning of the month, 0.66% on a month on month basis, 9.03% lower than the beginning of the year, and 10.98% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In September, the phosphoric acid market broke the calm and went up steadily. This month’s rise was mainly due to the tight spot price of raw material yellow phosphorus, which was transmitted to the phosphoric acid market. In the first half of the month, the phosphoric acid market was relatively calm. Under the off-season, the demand was relatively stable, and the actual trading atmosphere was slightly light. In the face of upward pressure on costs, the phosphoric acid market was cautious and wait-and-see situation, and some sporadic small rises were explored. In the second half of the month, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus continued to rise, and the enthusiasm continued to increase. Superimposed on the approaching holiday, the downstream started the pre holiday stock mode. The phosphoric acid market was boosted by this, and the price of phosphoric acid increased slightly. Some enterprises also kept a steady wait-and-see market.

At present, the downstream replenishment has increased compared with the previous period, the manufacturers’ delivery pressure is not great, the trading atmosphere is slightly improved, and the southwest region is in a smooth flow with positive adjustment, but the demand is not in large volume, and the rising space is limited. Take KANGLONG, Sichuan Province as an example, the price at the beginning of the month is 4550 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month is 4600 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 50 yuan, which is relatively stable in other regions. Near the end of the month, the delivery plan of phosphoric acid enterprises before the festival is mostly full, a small amount of terminal replenishment, and the market is expected to maintain stable operation before the festival.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of September 24, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 4870 yuan / ton, the price in Sichuan was 4600-5300 yuan / ton, the price was rising, the price in Guangxi was about 4750 yuan / ton, and the transaction was stable; the quotation in Yunnan was about 4800 yuan / ton, the price was temporarily stable; in Beijing, the price was about 4700 yuan / ton, the price was temporarily stable; in Hubei, the price was 4800-4850 yuan The price of Tianjin is about 5500 yuan / ton, which is stable for the time being; the price of Jiangsu is about 4450-4500 yuan / ton, with little fluctuation. Prices around the country remained stable and wait-and-see, with the focus moving up slightly.

Regional product specification date price (yuan / ton)

Phosphoric acid content: 85% in East China

Phosphoric acid content: 85% in Southwest China

Phosphoric acid content: 85% in Central China

On September 24, the phosphoric acid industrial chain index was 87.19, up 0.12 points compared with yesterday, 17.94% lower than 106.25 points (2012-03-22), and 12.36% higher than 77.60 points, the lowest point on July 2, 2019. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The price of yellow phosphorus in the upper reaches has increased steadily recently. Manufacturers mainly issued early orders, yellow phosphorus spot tight, traders wait-and-see mood is obvious, high price transaction limited. However, a small number of downstream enterprises that did not prepare goods in time also have the possibility of taking goods at high prices. Forecast: in the short term, the price of yellow phosphorus is mainly high.

At present, China’s phosphate ore market is still weak and stable, with insufficient downstream purchasing power, less support for phosphate rock, and lack of large single support in the field. Therefore, it is expected that the short-term demand side of phosphate ore market will not improve significantly. In late September, the overall phosphate ore market is still weak and stable, the upward momentum is slightly weak, and the overall market fluctuation is limited.

Sulfuric acid, in late September, the market of sulfuric acid in Shandong area or a small shock rise. The price of sulfur in the upstream has risen slightly in recent years, and the downstream market has been consolidated at a high level. The demand for sulfuric acid in the downstream is positive, and the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business agency believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of sulfuric acid market or a small rise.

The autumn sales of ammonium phosphate and monoammonium in the lower reaches have basically come to an end, and the winter storage policy has not yet been issued. It is expected that monoammonium finishing will be mainly operated in the short term. At present, the domestic demand for diammonium is acceptable, but the new orders are few. The export market is good and the price is always strong. The operation of diammonium is expected to be stable in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The phosphoric acid analyst of the chemical branch of the business society believes that, near the end of the month, the delivery plan of phosphoric acid enterprises before the festival is mostly full, and a small amount of replenishment at the terminal, and the market before the festival is expected to maintain stable operation.

1、 Price trend

This week, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China dropped slightly. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers dropped from 2740.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2730.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 10 yuan / ton or 0.36%, and 4.77% compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s calcium carbide market fell slightly, the carbide commodity index on September 18 was 71.53.

2、 Trend analysis

According to the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China has been stable and falling this week: the price of calcium carbide from ovicanon is 2800 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which is 30 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; the price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia and China Union is 2690 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of calcium carbide in Xingping of Ningxia is 2700 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

Overall, the actual transaction price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is about 2650-2800 yuan / ton this weekend: the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 2800 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Ningxia is about 2700 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2650 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation.

From the calcium carbide upstream and downstream industry chain, upstream raw material market, orchid charcoal factory quotation this week temporarily stable. At present, the quotation of small materials is 560 yuan / ton, that of medium materials is 580 yuan / ton, and that of large materials is about 750 yuan / ton. The low price consolidation of upstream raw materials and the general cost support have a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory price rose slightly this week. The price of PVC increased from 6580.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6667.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.33%, and decreased by 2.06% compared with the same period last year. This week, PVC prices rose slightly, the market is good, downstream purchasing enthusiasm for calcium carbide, overall, PVC market this week has a positive impact on calcium carbide prices.

3、 Future forecast

In late September, calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, which generally supports the price of calcium carbide, while the price of PVC in the downstream rises slightly. The downstream customers are more active in purchasing calcium carbide. Moreover, the production capacity of calcium carbide is insufficient at this stage, and the supply of calcium carbide is tense. The later market forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in late September.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic p-xylene factory was temporarily stable this week, with an average price of 4600 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of 4600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 30.3%.

The domestic PX operating rate is about 60%. The operation of Hongrun 600000 ton new unit is stable, Huizhou refining and chemical plant is stable, fuhaichuang plant is on the first line, Pengzhou petrochemical plant is running stably, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit is running normally, Jinling Petrochemical plant is running smoothly, Qingdao Lidong unit is operating at full load, Qilu Petrochemical plant is running stably The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%, and Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. has started a production line. Hengli petrochemical plant is in normal operation, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, and the domestic p-xylene market price trend is temporarily stable. This week, the operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 70%, and the supply of PX goods in Asia is normal. This week, the price trend of PX external market has risen slightly. As of the end of the week, the closing prices of PX market in Asia are 543-545 USD / T FOB Korea and 561-563 USD / T CFR China. This week, the external price of PX has slightly increased. More than 40% of domestic products need to be imported, and PX external price is on the closing price Rise to the domestic market to bring a certain positive support, domestic PX market price trend temporarily stable.

The U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price rose sharply this week. As of the 17th, the settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was at $40.97/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was at $43.30/barrel. The sharp rise in oil prices was mainly due to the sharp decline in US crude oil and gasoline stocks, and the superposition of Hurricane “Sally” forced a large number of U.S. oil production to be blocked. The rebound of oil price is mainly due to the force majeure of Hurricane “Sally”. At present, the fundamentals are still not optimistic. The number of new cases of the epidemic is still high. In order to stimulate the economy, the relaxation of blockade measures in various countries has brought difficulties to the later stage of epidemic prevention. Moreover, in winter, the possibility of outbreak counterattack is increasing, and the fuel demand will continue to be under pressure in the medium and long term, and the pressure of crude oil price continues to rise The price trend of domestic p-xylene market remained stable for the time being.

This week, the price trend of downstream PTA market was mainly fluctuating. As of the end of the weekend, the PTA Market in East China had been discussed for 3400-3500 yuan. Recently, the starting load of PTA industry was 87%. The overall high-yield and sales of downstream polyester were difficult to sustain. The production and sales of mainstream large polyester filament factories were 50% – 70%, and the production and sales of some better factories could reach 110%. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 33-43 days, among which POY inventory is up to 11-17 days, FDY inventory is around 22-34 days, and DTY inventory is about 31-43 days. The quotation of the factory is basically stable. At present, some of its own devices are planned to restart, and the downstream polyester production and sales are poor, the market atmosphere is flat, and whether the terminal consumption capacity can continue to improve remains to be observed The price trend of toluene remained stable for the time being.

On the whole, the demand of textile industry has not improved significantly, the order performance is not stable, and the terminal demand is poor. For upstream Px, on-demand procurement is the main factor, and the price trend of PX market is stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business agency, thinks that the recent trend of crude oil price is rising, but the operating rate of downstream textile enterprises is general, PTA market price remains low and volatile, domestic PX market supply is normal, and it is expected that PX market price will maintain about 4600 yuan / ton next week.

Bisphenol a market in East China is running at a high level, and the reference for negotiation is 12400-12500 yuan / ton. After the factory’s sharp increase of 500 yuan / ton yesterday, the market followed the upward trend. Yesterday, both the market and the factory offer were at a high level. The downstream inquiry was positive, but the transaction was rare. On the whole, the market was relatively contradictory to the high price. Today, the market entered a state of rest, and the overall market maintained a high level. Under the tight supply of goods, there was basically no pressure on the shippers to deliver goods and the transaction was at a high level. It is expected that the domestic bisphenol a market will be stable in the short term. The market negotiation in East China will be at 12500 yuan / ton. Next week, it will be ready for the national day. The Business Association expects that the bisphenol a market will run at a high level before the festival. At the end of the day, bisphenol offers across the country were as follows:

Regional price rise and fall

East China 12350-12400 100

12400-12500 100 in North China

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of September 11, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 5833.33 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on September 7, the average price of butanone decreased by 333 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.41%, and a decrease of 383 yuan / ton or 6.17% compared with September 1.

This week, the domestic butanone market was cold and the decline was not shallow

The overall domestic butanone market fell this week. The atmosphere of market inquiry was general. The downstream purchasing was not active. The market was cold. The overall demand was low and the supply was slightly more. The manufacturers were tight in maintaining the just needed purchase, and there were few restockers. In terms of exports, the impact of international public events weakened exports and increased domestic trade pressure. At present, as of the 11th, the number of closed orders increased. The mainstream transaction price of butanone in East China was 5700 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton compared with last week; the market in South China fell coldly, with the mainstream transaction price at 6100 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; the weakness of North China saw the mainstream transaction price of butanone at 5700 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Price quotation of butanone in some areas of China (for reference only)

Regional product specifications up and down 9 / 1 9 / 11

South China butanone purified water delivery: 6300 yuan / ton: 6000 yuan / ton – 300 yuan

East China butanone purified water storage 6150 yuan / ton 5800 yuan / ton – 350 yuan

North China butanone purified water delivery: 5800 yuan / ton 5600 yuan / ton – 200 yuan

On the upstream side, in September, when entering the traditional sales peak season, the LPG civil market did not show an upward trend, but fell. The reasons are as follows: first, demand. With the arrival of autumn, the temperature gradually drops, the weather turns cool, and the terminal demand is expected to grow. However, due to the current market situation, the terminal consumption is still weak, most of the downstream purchasing capacity is insufficient, and the shipping atmosphere of manufacturers is not good. Secondly, with the introduction of Saudi Aramco’s CP price in September at the end of August, although there was an increase, the increase was significantly lower than expected, which provided limited support to the market. Third, affected by the upstream international crude oil, due to the slowdown of economic recovery, expected warming, weak fuel demand and the impact of Saudi Arabia’s oil price adjustment. According to monitoring, in the week of September 4, oil prices fell for three consecutive days, and the WTI fell by nearly 7%. Crude oil pressure downward, news negative liquefied gas market. At present, the supply of liquefied gas market has little change, and the output is relatively sufficient. As a result, the civil market of liquefied gas did not rise but fell. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of LPG in Shandong market was 3200.00 yuan / ton on September 1, and 3043.33 yuan / ton on September 10, a decrease of 4.9% during the period.

Heard that Shandong factory has parking expected to reduce production capacity, down the business or support the market

At present, the domestic butanone market is mainly stable for the time being, and the fatigue still exists. The industry has a strong wait-and-see mood. The South China shippers have a heavy bearish mentality, showing a weak trend. It is expected that the butanone market may have further decline risk in the short term.