This week (6.6-10), the domestic liquid ammonia market continued to fall. Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan and Hubei have declined to varying degrees. The cumulative weekly decline is 100-200 yuan / ton. The market supply has changed and the ammonia supply has increased. However, the demand for chemical fertilizer in the downstream is weak, and the resistance to high prices has further suppressed some rigid demand. Lower downstream prices, terminal prices have also been lower. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of May 20, the current weekly decline of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 0.63%, and the weekend mainstream quotation range is 4900-5150 yuan / ton.

 

povidone Iodine

Supply side

 

On the supply side, this week, the overall ammonia release in many domestic places increased slightly compared with the previous week, and the overall supply pressure increased. Previously, due to the high price of urea in the downstream, the majority of urea was transferred to the downstream, and the amount of ammonia decreased. However, the ammonia price has rebounded recently, and the amount of ammonia released by enterprises has increased significantly. Therefore, the overall supply of liquid ammonia surged, and the short-term surge in supply led to partial excess.

 

Affected by the regulation policies, the upstream coal prices maintain the previous level. At present, the profits of downstream methanol and liquid ammonia manufacturers are generally boosted. The price of natural gas also declined, easing the cost pressure of gas head enterprises. According to the monitoring of the business agency, LNG fell by 2.20% this week.

 

Demand side

 

From the terminal point of view, the downstream demand for liquid ammonia remained rigid and the price of urea remained stable at a high level. The price rebounded slightly, with an increase of 1.5%. The agricultural demand increases, and the industrial demand is dominated by the rigid demand. In the northern wheat harvest area, the agricultural demand is appropriately followed up, and some southern areas purchase on demand. The enterprises of compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants started their business in general, mainly just needed to purchase. The price of melamine fell slightly, and their enthusiasm for urea purchasing weakened. From the perspective of supply, the daily output of urea is about 170000 tons, which is at a high level, but the factory inventory and social inventory are at a low level, and the supply of goods in some regions is tight.

 

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. Recently, the price of liquid ammonia has dropped significantly, deeper than that of urea, and the price difference between them has widened. However, it is still at a reasonable level.

 

According to the above figure, the profit of liquid ammonia industrial chain continues to improve, the price of natural gas in the upstream of gas head drops, and the price of coal remains weak due to the impact of policies, which is conducive to easing the pressure on downstream costs. In the middle and lower reaches, the majority of the market also rose, and the profits of enterprises increased. The profits of liquid ammonia, urea and compound fertilizer increased significantly compared with the previous period.

 

Aftermarket forecast

 

The business agency believes that at present, the domestic liquid ammonia market price continues to loosen, and the inventory pressure of enterprises is obvious. As the agricultural demand enters the off-season, the liquid ammonia may have a downward risk.

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The price of DBP fell in shock this week

 

Benzalkonium chloride

According to the data monitoring of the business club, the DBP price fell this week, and the overall DBP market fell. As of June 13, the price of DBP was 10250.00 yuan / ton, down 2.54% from 10516.67 yuan / ton on June 6 at the beginning of the week. The raw material cost of DBP fell this week, and the plasticizer market fell.

 

The price of normal butanol fell sharply this week

 

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the price of n-butanol first rose and then fell this week, and the market of n-butanol fell. On June 13, the price of n-butanol was 9833.33 yuan / ton, down 2.32% from 10066.67 yuan / ton on June 6 at the beginning of the week. This week, the transaction volume of n-butanol decreased, the price of n-butanol in Shandong fell violently, the cost of DBP decreased, the upward momentum of DBP weakened, and the downward pressure increased. The price of n-butanol fell violently, and the upward momentum of DBP weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

 

The price of phthalic anhydride rose violently this week

 

Sodium Molybdate

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the price of phthalic anhydride rose violently this week, and the market of phthalic anhydride rose. As of June 6, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8650 yuan / ton, up 4.22% from 8300 yuan / ton on June 6. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride raw material o-xylene rose sharply, the cost of phthalic anhydride rose, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, the cost of DBP raw materials rose, and the cost support of DBP increased.

 

Aftermarket expectation

 

According to the DBP data analyst of business agency, in terms of raw materials, the price of butanol fell this week, the price of phthalic anhydride rose this week, and the overall cost of plasticizer DBP fell. In the future, DBP demand recovers slowly

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According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend was temporarily stable this week. By the end of the week, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4630 yuan / ton, unchanged from the price of 4630 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 33.05%.

 

Melamine

This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend was temporarily stable, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably, the recent on-site supply of goods was normal, the on-site delivery was normal, the manufacturer’s inventory was not high, the upstream liquid ammonia price trend of the terminal was temporarily stable, the nitric acid price rose, and the ammonium nitrate price remained high supported. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, the downstream is purchased on demand, and the demand for nitro compound fertilizer in the downstream is supported recently. However, the sales of domestic downstream civil explosive industry has come to an end. The demand for ammonium nitrate has decreased, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have not started high. Affected by the rise of raw materials, the price of ammonium nitrate has remained high recently. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation in Shaanxi is 5000-5200 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 4500-4700 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei is 5200-5300 yuan / ton.

 

The price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid rose this week. By the end of the week, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 2800 yuan / ton, up 4.35% from 2683.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. Ningxia Runxia Energy & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 2750 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 3150 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic nitric acid plant has been operating stably, the concentrated nitric acid market supply is normal, and the delivery of goods in the site has improved. Recently, the price of nitric acid in the site has risen. The high price of raw nitric acid is good for the ammonium nitrate Market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

 

Sodium Molybdate

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia fell slightly this week. By the end of the week, the price of liquid ammonia was 5223.33 yuan / ton, down 0.63% from the price of 5256.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The liquid ammonia Market in the domestic liquid ammonia market fell slightly, and the market rose or fell by a small margin. Some large factories made downward moves, with a range of 50 yuan. The dealers mainly reported the price and delivered goods. At present, the market price is still at a relatively high level. At present, the amount of ammonia in the region is moderate, and the supply and demand are mainly in short balance. However, the downstream is generally resistant to high priced raw materials, and most transactions need to be maintained. The mainstream price in the market is 5100-5200 yuan / ton. The falling price of upstream liquid ammonia has a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

 

Recently, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry has come to an end. The market demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened, and the market price of liquid ammonia has declined. However, the price of nitric acid has risen. The spot supply of ammonium nitrate is normal, and the demand has not improved significantly. However, the raw material price is high. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business society believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate will remain high in the later period.

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According to the sample data monitored by the business community, from June 2 to 9, the domestic ethanol market fell in a narrow range. On June 2, the average price of domestic ethanol producers was 7516 yuan / ton. On June 9, the price fell to 7466 yuan / ton. During the cycle, the price fell by 0.67%, fell by 0.44% month on month, and the price rose by 8.61% year on year.

 

Benzalkonium chloride

Due to the gradual increase in the number of raw wheat listed, the auction of aged rice and other factors, enterprises are more cautious in acquisition, the feed demand is relatively weak, and the corn price is weak. Some units in some regions have maintenance plans, and some units that have been shut down for a long time will soon resume normal production. There is no significant change in the supplier in the short term. In terms of demand, whether it is Baijiu or ethyl acetate downstream of chemical industry, the recent demand is good.

 

In terms of raw materials, the price of raw corn is weak. Raw cassava dry inventory sales, weak demand performance, low purchasing enthusiasm, and stable price in the short term

 

Comparison chart of corn (upstream raw material) – ethanol price trend of shanghaishe:

 

In terms of downstream products, with the further warming of the weather, the downstream Baijiu has entered the off-season; In terms of chemical industry, the demand for ethyl acetate is relatively stable. At the end of this month, Shandong large plant has a startup plan to pay attention to; The demand of downstream pharmaceutical industry performs well and is expected to continue.

 

Comparison chart of price trend of ethanol ethyl acetate (downstream product) of Business Club:

 

Sodium Molybdate

As of June 9, the latest price dynamics of ethanol market in various regions:

 

Region, Category, Price

Guangxi, Honey alcohol, 8200 yuan / ton

Guangxi, Corn / Cassava 95% alcohol, 7650-7800 yuan / ton

Guangxi, Anhydrous ethanol, 8350-8450 yuan / ton self delivery

Guangdong, Corn alcohol, 7700-7750 yuan / ton self delivery

Guangdong region Rice / Cassava general ethanol, 7700-7750 yuan / ton self delivery

Guangdong, Anhydrous cassava ethanol, 8450-8550 yuan / ton Dongguan self delivery

Sichuan region, Corn alcohol, 8100 yuan / ton ex factory tax included

Yunnan region, Molasses alcohol, 8200-8250 yuan / ton

Henan region, Superior, 7340-7350 yuan / ton ex factory tax included

Henan region, Anhydrous ethanol, 8150 yuan / ton ex factory tax included

Hebei region, General grade, 7350-7400 yuan / ton, tax included

Shandong region, Common wheat, 7350-7400 yuan / ton

Shandong region, Superior corn, 7800-7900 yuan / ton

Shandong region, Corn has no water, 8300 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu, General grade, 7600-7650 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu, General grade, 7300-7400 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu, Superior, 7500-7550 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu, No water, 8300-8400 yuan / ton

Anhui region, General grade, 7400-7550 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Anhui region ., No water, 8300 yuan / ton ex factory tax included

Jinzhou District, Liaoning Province, Corn alcohol general grade, 7400-7500 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang region, General grade, 6900-7100 yuan / ton, tax included

Heilongjiang region, Anhydrous ethanol, 7900-8000 yuan / ton

Jilin region, Ordinary alcohol, 7200-7300 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Jilin region, Premium alcohol, 7300-7350 yuan / ton ex factory tax included

Jilin region, Anhydrous ethanol, 8050-8300 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

The price of raw corn may be weak, and the cost support is not strong. The supply side is stopped and started, and there is no obvious change. The downstream inventory consumption is difficult to be improved in the short term. The ethanol analysts of the business agency expect that the domestic ethanol market will be mainly low in the short term.

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Trade name: calcium carbide

 

Latest price (June 8):4133.33 yuan / ton

 

Benzalkonium chloride

On June 8, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly, down 66.67 yuan / ton, or 1.59%, compared with that on June 7, and 1.20% year-on-year, compared with the same period last year. The price of raw material orchid charcoal has risen slightly recently. At present, Shenmu orchid charcoal is about 1700-1900 yuan / ton, and the cost of calcium carbide is well supported. The downstream PVC market recently stopped falling and rose, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement increased.

 

In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly, and the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 4200 yuan / ton.

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I Price trend

 

Melamine

According to the monitoring data of the business club, the average price of EPS common materials at the beginning of this week was 10875 yuan / ton, and the average price of EPS common materials at the weekend was 11000 yuan / ton, with an increase of 1.15% and 2.22% compared with the same period of the year.

 

II quotations analysis

 

Domestic EPS prices strengthened slightly this month. The trend of crude oil is strong. After the holiday, the prices of pure benzene and styrene and EPS are rising. The market demand is picking up. The terminal just needs replenishment. The overall trading is OK.

 

Benzalkonium chloride

The crude oil was relatively strong, the styrene rose sharply, the cost was boosted, and the terminal prepared an appropriate amount of goods. However, due to the impact of the local epidemic, some merchants were cautious in trading, and the overall transaction was good. The delivery at the end of the month may boost the mentality of styrene and pure benzene merchants. The supply side and demand side, the northeast and northwest demand are significantly weakened, the East China demand is poor, and the South China and southwest demand are weakened. It is expected that the market demand will decrease slightly next week.

 

III Aftermarket forecast

 

The price of domestic EPS has been increased. The ex factory price of common materials is 11100-11200 yuan / ton, and that of barrier fuel is 12000-12100 yuan / ton.

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The domestic epoxy resin market continued to decline, mainly due to the decline of both raw materials and liquid resin market. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the offer of liquid epoxy resin Market in East China on May 30 fell by 800-1000 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the negotiation was at 24800-25300 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan compared with last weekend. The liquid resin Market in East China offers 24800-25300 yuan / ton in barrels, and the solid resin Market in Shandong offers 21500-22200 yuan / ton.

 

Benzalkonium chloride

region ., Specifications., offer

East China, E51., 24800-25300

Shandong region, E12., 21500-22000

 

Raw material bisphenol A: at the end of the month and the beginning of the week, the spot negotiation of bisphenol A was light, and the focus fell again. The offer of East China was 15100-15200 yuan / ton, while the offer of other factories was suspended, and the offer of lihuayi was 15100 yuan / ton. Today, the bidding of Zhejiang Petrochemical fell 200-300 yuan / ton again compared with last week, making the bisphenol a market worse. Today, the market became more bearish and the downward speed of the market accelerated. Since the market continued to decline in late May, the holders have been selling goods at a lower price. Although the raw material phenol ketone rose, it had little impact on the market. The downstream continued to fall and the trading volume was difficult to improve. The short-term market was still dominated by bad news. After a sharp decline, the holders’ intention to sell at a lower price weakened. Recently, they have paid attention to the downstream procurement and factory price adjustment.

 

Sodium Molybdate

The high level of epichlorohydrin market fell back. The reference price of epichlorohydrin in East China market was 18400 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan compared with the previous week. After the periodic replenishment, the downstream demand for high priced epichlorohydrin was not followed up enough, and the delivery of epichlorohydrin manufacturers was not smooth. At present, the price of glycerol is high, and the price has dropped to near the cost line of glycerol based cyclophosphamide, so the intention of glycerol based cyclophosphamide manufacturers to continue to lower is not high; However, at present, the gross profit of propylene based cyclophosphamide is about 8000 yuan / ton. During the week, the propylene based cyclophosphamide plant actively offered to ship goods at a profit, further reducing the focus of discussion in the cyclophosphamide market.

 

According to the analysts of the business agency, the offer of the epoxy resin factory after adjustment was temporarily stable and market-oriented. At the end of the month, bisphenol A fell significantly, and the environment chlorine was depressed. The overall market negotiation was cold, and the downstream demand side did not change. It is expected that the epoxy resin will continue to be depressed in the short term.

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1、 Price trend

 

Benzalkonium chloride

According to the monitoring data of the business club, the price of baking soda rose as a whole this month. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 2526.67 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was about 2750 yuan / ton. The price rose by 8.84% and 73.68% year-on-year. On May 30, the commodity index of baking soda was 181.86, unchanged from yesterday, down 22.89% from the highest point 235.84 in the cycle (2021-11-10), and up 106.03% from the lowest point 88.27 on December 22, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Sodium Molybdate

According to the business agency, the price of baking soda has been adjusted and operated, and the downstream market has been mainly purchasing on demand recently. At present, the price of baking soda in Henan is about 2700-2800 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of soda ash rose this month. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was about 2687.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was about 2850 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 6.05%, an increase of 62.86% over the same period last year. At present, the mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2850-2950 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2800-3000 yuan / ton. In this month, the soda ash market was strong, the trading atmosphere was acceptable, the enterprise’s order receiving was acceptable, and the price was mainly supported.

 

Demand: downstream, the demand for baking soda from medicine, textiles and food is acceptable. Raw material soda ash is running steadily as a whole. In the downstream, medicine, textile and food demand more and more appropriate purchases of baking soda. In general, baking soda prices, with strong raw materials, may maintain a stable consolidation of the operating market in the short term, depending on the downstream market demand.

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Returning to the market after the May Day holiday, the phenol market rose sharply, and the rise in raw materials became more prominent, which formed a certain support for phenol ketones. Although the port inventory increased, the phenol factory raised the listing price for many times, and the traders’ mentality was good, and the offer was higher. First, the market negotiated the price upward, and the terminal also made a moderate replenishment, and the participation increased. However, after the market rose to 10650 yuan / ton for several days, it was difficult for the downstream to follow up, The market negotiation entered a stalemate situation. Under the pressure of the goods holders, the goods were delivered at a profit, and the market negotiation quickly returned to the pre holiday state. According to the monitoring data of the business society, the average offer of phenol in the domestic market was 10337 yuan / ton on May 1. On May 9, the market offer was pushed up to 10631 yuan / ton. Then the market entered a stalemate. Under the pressure of cost, the market rose again in the last ten days. As of the end of the month, the market offer was 10837 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 4.84% in the month.

 

Benzalkonium chloride

Trend chart of average phenol price in the national market

 

In the first ten days of May, both the upstream and downstream of phenol showed an upward and high position, which strongly supported the post Festival rise of phenol. However, after the downstream staged replenishment, the negotiation entered a stalemate. After the replenishment was just needed for a period of time, the demand went down. In the middle of the year, the market showed a stalemate in trading after falling back, which was difficult to improve. In the last ten days, due to the cost pressure, the phenol and ketone losses of the factory kept rising, and the market also followed the high report upward.

 

Phenol offers in various markets nationwide are as follows:

 

Region, Quotation, Monthly rise and fall

East China, 10800., five hundred

Shandong region, 10850., five hundred

Surrounding areas of Yanshan mountain, 10850., five hundred

South China, 10850., four hundred and fifty

Sodium Molybdate

In terms of crude oil, due to the uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the fact that the EU embargo policy on Russian oil has not yet been implemented, the future crude oil supply is still expected to be tight. In addition, with the continuous rise of gasoline prices in the United States and the approaching peak season of fuel oil demand, demand growth has driven up international oil prices. Brent rose $10.09/barrel, or 9.23%; WTI rose $10.38/barrel, or 9.91%. Crude oil and external market remained high in the short term, and the decline in port inventory was also good for the pure benzene market. However, most of the downstream products lost money, the operating rate of the main products decreased, and the follow-up of high priced pure benzene weakened. Overall, the price of pure benzene is high in the short term, but there is no lack of possibility of decline. Continue to pay attention to the impact of international crude oil market, external market, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics, demand side changes, etc. on the price of pure benzene.

 

The downstream bisphenol a market as a whole rose first and then fell. In late May, the bisphenol a market fell significantly. Near the end of the month, the on-site negotiation was 15000-15200 yuan / ton, the participation of low-cost intermediate traders increased, and the terminal factories also had inventory demand. It is expected that the market may improve after the holiday.

 

At the end of the month, the carriers’ enthusiasm for shipping was not high, and there was a situation of being reluctant to sell at high prices. The factory and the market continued to push up, but the terminal participation was cautious. The business club expected to maintain a high level in the short term.

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1、 Price trend

 

Benzalkonium chloride

According to the data of the bulk list of the business society, mixed xylene rose in shock this month, and the price rose in a wide range. On May 1, the price of mixed xylene was 7330 yuan / ton; On May 27, the price was 7880 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.5% over the beginning of the month and 32.66% over the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

Crude oil rose broadly this month, with strong cost support. The gasoline market in the United States is rising, the demand for related toluene and xylene is strong, the price in the U.S. gold market is high, and the domestic toluene export is positive. Due to the problem of export tax rebate, the export arbitrage of mixed xylene was limited, mainly followed by the rise of toluene and crude oil in the month.

 

In terms of crude oil, due to the uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the fact that the EU embargo policy on Russian oil has not yet been implemented, the future crude oil supply is still expected to be tight. In addition, the continuous rise of gasoline prices in the United States, and the peak season of fuel oil demand is coming, the growth of demand drives up the international oil price. As of May 27, Brent rose $10.09/barrel, or 9.23%; WTI rose $10.38/barrel, or 9.91%.

 

In terms of external trading, Asian mixed xylene in external trading rose by more than 10% this month. On May 27, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was $1242.5/t, a month on month increase of $176 / T, or 16.5%; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was USD 1207.5/t, with a month on month increase of USD 118 / T, or 10.83%.

 

In the PX market, domestic PX prices rose sharply this month. The price was 8900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 9900 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price increased by 11.24% compared with the beginning of the month and 54.69% compared with the same period last year.

 

In terms of ox market, the price ladder of ox in East China rose this month. At the beginning of the month, the price was 8200 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 8600 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.88% over the beginning of the month and 38.71% over the same period last year.

 

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong fell this month. At the beginning of the month, the price was 8819.8 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 8720.6 yuan / ton, down 1.12% from the beginning of the month and up 14.95% from the same period last year.

 

Sodium Molybdate

3、 Aftermarket forecast

 

On the cost side (crude oil), the peak season of U.S. gasoline and diesel demand is coming. In addition, the European Union has launched negotiations on whether to completely ban the import of Russian oil. The tension between supply and demand of crude oil has intensified, and it is still possible to rise. In June, the crude oil trend continued to fluctuate violently. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on output, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.

 

The trend of crude oil is strong, the external price is high, and the external news support is good. The downstream PX operating rate has increased, the demand is well supported, and the trend of mixed xylene is expected to be strong. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil market, external market trend, mixed xylene unit dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on mixed xylene price.

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