According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic adipic acid continued to decline this week (8.1-5), with a decline of 1.03% this week. The mainstream quotation in East China market fell by 100-200 yuan / ton. At the weekend, the market price range of adipic acid was 9500-9700 yuan / ton. On the one hand, crude oil fluctuates, the upward momentum is weak, pure benzene continues to fall, cyclohexanone, cyclohexane and other products decline deeper, and the negative impact on the cost side is intensified. In addition, the manufacturer has high inventory pressure, constantly reducing load to balance negative profit, and weak market demand.
From the perspective of market supply, the adipic acid operation rate this week slightly decreased compared with the previous week, and is currently maintained at about 50%. At present, there is no information guidance on the supply side. The inventory pressure of the manufacturer is still prominent. The weak market demand leads to a decline in supply and the profit of the manufacturer is inverted.
Trend of adipic acid industry chain
The above figure shows that the adipic acid industry chain is still relatively weak this week. The upstream products pure benzene, cyclohexanone and cyclohexane all dropped to varying degrees, adipic acid remained weak, the trading center shifted significantly downward, and the manufacturer’s profits were inverted, maintaining a negative profit range. In addition, the downstream PA66 slightly stopped falling this week, but did not rebound, and the terminal remained at a weak level.
Market trend of adipic acid upstream pure benzene
Market trend of cyclohexanone in adipic acid upstream
The support of upstream raw materials is insufficient, and the decline of pure benzene price is deepened this week. According to the monitoring of business agency, the weekly increase of pure benzene is 3.04%. The main factory of pure benzene has lowered the ex factory price for three consecutive times, with a cumulative range of 700 yuan / ton. The inventory of pure benzene in East China decreased, and the overall supply of the spot market decreased. In addition, the inventory of East China port fell, and the spot quantity was small. The good supply side can not offset the bad demand brought by the slowdown. The prices of cyclohexanone and cyclohexane also dropped, at -0.99% and -0.36% respectively. It shows that the upstream cost still forms a negative pressure on adipic acid.
Market trend of adipic acid downstream PA66
Terminal demand: the downstream performance of adipic acid is sluggish. The downstream purchase volume decreases. According to the monitoring of business news agency, the PA66 in the lower reaches of adipic acid increased or decreased by 0% in the week. This week, the load level of domestic PA66 industry continued to fall in a narrow range, but the spot supply in the market is still abundant, and the supply pressure is difficult to solve. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. On the demand side, the current end-user enterprises tend to follow up with goods to maintain production, and have strong resistance to high price goods. In the traditional off-season, the demand of downstream factories is shrinking, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the shipping resistance of merchants is large. The transaction in the market is declining, and the seller is not in a good mood, and gradually tries to reduce the yield order. In short, the weak downstream demand is the fundamental reason that restricts the rebound of adipic acid.
In the later stage, the Business Association believes that the decline of crude oil price will bring bad news to the chemical market, and the continuous decline of pure benzene price will suppress the downstream adipic acid. From the perspective of supply and demand, there is no favorable guidance on the supply side, and the order follow-up on the demand side is slow. Therefore, it is expected that the adipic acid market will still operate weakly.