Macro disturbance in July 2022, lead price “V” trend

In July 2022, the domestic 1# lead ingot Market showed a “V” trend. The average price of the domestic market was 14995 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 15195 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.33%.


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On July 29, the lead commodity index was 92.48, up 0.1 points from yesterday, down 30.99% from 134.01 points (November 29, 2016), the highest point in the cycle, and up 23.92% from 74.63 points, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).


The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: down; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.


Lead futures market in July 2022


Variety, closing price on the 1st, closing price on the 29th, inventory on the 1st, inventory on the 29th

Shanghai lead, 15030 yuan / ton, 15240 yuan / ton, 78025 tons, 68151 tons

London lead, 1930 US dollars / ton, 2036.5 US dollars / ton, 38850 tons, 39500 tons

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In the futures market, the overall low rebound trend of Lun lead in July, with a monthly fluctuation range of $1784.5-2047 / ton, with a monthly increase of more than 4.7%. In terms of Shanghai tin, the main contract changed months. At present, the main contract is 2209 contract. The overall trend of this month is “V”, and the overall decline in the first half of the month is mainly due to many macro negative factors. The metal market is generally under pressure, and the lead price is lower. The CPI data of the United States in June dragged Shanghai lead down to 14345 yuan / ton on the 15th, hitting a new low in nearly 11 months. Later, as the market negative news is gradually digested, the trend hit the bottom and rebounded, returning to the line of 15200 yuan / ton.


The trend of the spot market still follows the trend of Shanghai lead this month, showing a “V” trend as a whole. In addition to the macro impact, which has dragged the lead price down to 14600 yuan / ton, basically speaking, there has been little change in the supply side in the near future. Refineries have successively ended maintenance and resumed production, and the output has rebounded recently. In terms of primary lead, it has not been recovered due to power rationing in Anhui. Downstream, boosted by the end of the seasonal off-season and the approaching peak season, battery sales have improved to a certain extent. In the early stage, the lead price has declined, and some downstream actively purchased. At present, the overall social inventory of lead ingots has declined significantly, giving significant support to the lead price. However, with the lead price rising, the actual transaction situation in the current market is lower than that in the early stage, and the downstream is on the sidelines as a whole. On the whole, the current macro performance of the lead ingot Market is acceptable, the demand in the downstream peak season is expected to increase, and the overall inventory decline this month, especially the reduction of 10000 tons of inventory in the previous period, which boosted the lead price. It is expected that the lead price will have some room to rise under the boost of demand, and the macro impact will be focused on when the fundamental changes are limited.

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