This week (July 15 to July 22), the market price of 1# electrolytic manganese fell. The spot market price in East China was 16650 yuan / ton at the end of last week and 16550 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 100 yuan / ton, down 0.6% a week.

Manganese ore: the manganese ore market performance continued to be weak this week. Manufacturers reduced purchases on demand, and the superimposed silicon manganese production reduction achieved initial results. The futures market resonated downward, the demand for manganese ore was poor, and the overall pressure was obvious. The mainstream ore showed a decline of 1 yuan / ton.

At the beginning of this week, the market quotation of electrolytic manganese was slightly chaotic as a whole, and the mainstream market price was still concentrated around 15000 yuan / ton. In terms of steel bidding, the situation of the new round of steel bidding is not ideal. Baosteel and other steel companies fell by 200 yuan / ton compared with the previous round of steel bidding, and the bidding of other steel plants fell significantly or there were unsuccessful bids. On July 22, the manganese Professional Committee of China ferroalloy industry association issued an initiative calling on more than 40 manganese member units to limit production by 60%. But the market had little effect. The downstream demand side performed poorly, and the spot price center continued to move down slightly. The downstream stainless steel enterprises have recently reduced production to a certain extent, and the demand for manganese has declined to a certain extent, so the price reduction is obviously difficult to support the price of electrolytic manganese. On the whole, the supply and demand side of the market has not changed much, and the game mentality of both parties is strong. It is expected that the market price will be stable and weak in the short term.

Manganese and silicon: according to the price monitoring of business agency, the mainstream quotation of silicon and manganese in Ningxia region (specification: femn68si18) on July 15 was around 7300 yuan / ton.

Steel plant bidding: on July 15, 2022, Angang electrolytic manganese sheet bidding: the quantity is 30 tons, and the bidding deadline is 15:00 on July 22, 2022.

On July 18, Baosteel launched a new round of bidding for electrolytic manganese. This round of bidding has 1500 tons of electrolytic manganese chips at its headquarters and 1800 tons of electrolytic manganese chips in Zhanjiang. The deadline for registration is 12:00 on July 19, and the required delivery time is before August 20.

On July 19, the bidding acceptance price of Baosteel electrolytic manganese sheet: the bidding acceptance price of the headquarters is 15500 yuan / ton, and the quantity is 1500 tons; The acceptance price of Zhanjiang bidding is 15370 yuan / ton, with a quantity of 1800 tons, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than the previous round of price.

This week, the domestic methanol market has a slight upward trend, but the momentum is insufficient and the upward trend is weak. The main reasons are the following two aspects: one is that the cost has fallen significantly, and the chemical coal at the pit mouth has weakened; On the other hand, demand continues to be weak and market confidence is insufficient.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from July 18 to 25, the average price of domestic methanol market rose from 2393 yuan / ton to 2432 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.62% during the cycle, and the price fell by 3.47% month on month and 5.90% year-on-year.

As of the closing on July 25, methanol in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange continued to fluctuate. Ma2209 contract opened at 2445 yuan / ton, with the highest price of 2505 yuan / ton and the lowest price of 2425 yuan / ton. It closed at 2429 yuan / ton, down 27 yuan / ton from the closing of the previous trading day. As of the closing, ma2209 contract holdings were 1017500 hands, down 117300 hands from the previous trading day.

As of July 25th, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

Region, price

Qinghai region. No quotation at present

Shanxi Province, 2340-2390 yuan / ton

Liaoning region, 2650 yuan / ton, factory delivery

Fujian. The mainstream negotiation is 2430-2470 yuan / ton

In the two lakes region, the mainstream enterprises negotiate and refer to about 2400-2430 yuan / ton

In Anhui Province, the negotiation of mainstream enterprises is about 2370-2500 yuan / ton

In Henan Province, the shipment price of some enterprises is 2530 yuan / ton

The price of natural gas, the upstream product of methanol, was stable, the price of coal fell narrowly, and the cost support of methanol weakened; The price of East China glacial acetic acid, the downstream product, fell the most; Among related products, the price of urea in Shandong increased the most.

In the external market, as of the closing on July 22, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was $358.00-359.00/t, down $2 / T. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 111.50-112.00 cents / gallon; The closing quotation of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 350.50-351.00 euros / ton.

Region, country, closing price, rise and fall

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 358.00-359.00 USD / ton, -2 USD / ton

Europe, America, Gulf of America, 111.50-112.00 cents / gallon, 0 cents / gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 350.50-351.00 euros / ton, 0 euros / ton

The production cost of methanol has weakened, the supply of methanol is relatively stable, and the downstream demand has not changed significantly, so it is necessary to purchase more rigid materials. Methanol analysts of the business club expect that the domestic methanol market will be mainly sorted out in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda is weak. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong is about 1164 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, the average market price in Shandong is 1100 yuan / ton. The price is reduced by 5.5%, and the price is 76.71% higher than the same period last year. On July 21, the caustic soda commodity index was 158.27, down 1.73 points from yesterday, down 40.38% from the highest point 265.47 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 143.08% from the lowest point 65.11 on October 09, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the business community, the domestic caustic soda price was weak this week. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1030-1130 yuan / ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda in Hebei is about 1100-1250 yuan / ton. At present, the overall market atmosphere is weak, and downstream enterprises mainly take a wait-and-see attitude. Enterprises generally ship goods, with heavy on-site wait-and-see mood, and the downstream receiving capacity is limited. The overall trading is weak.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 28th week of 2022 (7.11-7.15), there were 0 kinds of commodities rising, 5 kinds of commodities falling and 0 kinds of commodities rising or falling. The main commodities that fell were hydrochloric acid (-12.82%), PVC (-5.13%) and caustic soda (-2.50%). The average rise and fall this week was -4.31%.

Business analysts believe that recently, the price of caustic soda is weak, the wait-and-see attitude of downstream alumina is obvious, most of which are purchased on demand, and the overall demand is limited. The market trading atmosphere continues in the early stage. It is comprehensively expected that the subsequent weak market operation of caustic soda is mainly based on the downstream market demand.

As of July 21, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 3900.00 yuan / ton, unchanged from Monday’s price, down 15.22% from June 21, and 59.66% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, according to the bulk list data of business society.

The domestic market price of 85% industrial formic acid was stable this week. Recently, the market of upstream sulfuric acid, caustic soda and liquid ammonia has been weak, the price of main raw material methanol has risen, the cost side support is acceptable, the enterprise mainly ships normally, the downstream demand continues to be just in need of procurement, the market trend is balanced, the quotation of formic acid enterprises is on the market, and the negotiation focus of industrial grade 85% formic acid market is mainly stable.

In terms of cost: upstream caustic soda, the price of caustic soda was weak on July 20, and the downstream demand was general. It is comprehensively estimated that the market in the later stage or weak market is dominant; Upstream liquid ammonia, on the 21st, the liquid ammonia Market in Shandong was still weak. Today, the downward trend of the market stopped slightly and slowed down, and the market quotation was little changed from yesterday; Upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price temporarily stabilized on July 20; Upstream methanol, according to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol in East China port market was 2430 yuan / ton on July 20, up 3.46% from the previous trading day.

According to the formic acid analysts of business society, at present, there is a certain support on the cost side, and the supply and demand side is generally performing. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may be dominated by stability and wait-and-see operation.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the above figure, the copper price fell slightly this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation was 55183.33 yuan / ton, down 5.77% from 58561.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 19.89% year-on-year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of the business club, in the past three months, copper prices have risen by 2 and fallen by 10. Recently, copper prices have fallen endlessly.

Macro: the recent good employment and high inflation data make the market expect that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates by 75 basis points this month, and the market is still worried about the occurrence of future economic recession.

Basically, there are more disturbances at the supply side and the mine side, and the processing fee is reduced, but the increment of domestic smelters is obvious. The demand is poor, and the operating rate and processing fee of copper pipes and rods have fallen. Except for the automobile direction, other fields have entered the seasonal consumption off-season, and downstream purchases have remained cautious in the price decline. The real estate industry, which has just improved, is making waves again. Last week, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 71.44%, down 0.91 percentage points, and the power grid has made up the inventory.

To sum up, copper prices are still worried about the impact of economic recession in Europe and the United States on the whole, and market sentiment is still relatively pessimistic. With the rapid decline of prices in the early stage, the market is gradually digesting the negative impact, and copper may continue its weak trend in the near future.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea market price fell slightly this week, from 2868.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 2638.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 8.02%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.77%. On July 17, the urea commodity index was 122.70, unchanged from yesterday, down 19.45% from 152.33, the highest point in the cycle (2022-05-15), and up 120.68% from 55.60, the lowest point on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The cost support is insufficient, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is low

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea fell slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 3100 yuan / ton this weekend, down 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2560 yuan / ton this weekend, down 240 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2510 yuan / ton this weekend, down 270 yuan / ton compared with last weekend;

According to the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea overall looked low this week: the price of liquefied natural gas rose slightly, from 5766.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5798.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.55%, a year-on-year increase of 37.07% compared with the same period last year; Anthracite prices are temporarily stable. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, from 8800.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 7966.67 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 9.47%.

From the perspective of demand: the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is mainly rigid. Agricultural demand in some regions has been appropriately followed up. Compound fertilizer and rubber plate factories are generally started, and just need to purchase. The price of melamine fell slightly, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was general. From the perspective of supply: some manufacturers overhaul, and the daily output of urea is less than 150000 tons.

The future price of urea may rebound at the bottom

In the middle and late July, the domestic urea market may rise slightly, dominated by consolidation. Urea analysts of business society believe that the upstream cost of urea is generally supported. The downstream agricultural demand is general, the industrial demand is mainly rigid, the printing standard is stimulated, and the daily output of urea is at a low level. Recently, urea may rise in a narrow range.

The price of acetic anhydride fell violently this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell sharply this week, and the market of acetic anhydride still fell. As of July 18, the price of acetic anhydride was 6550 yuan / ton, down 5.42% from 6925 yuan / ton on July 10 last weekend. The price of acetic acid fell violently, the cost of raw materials fell, and the market of acetic anhydride fell this week.

The price of raw material acetic acid fell violently

 
It can be seen from the trend chart of acetic acid price of business club that the price of acetic acid fell this week and the market of acetic acid fell. As of July 18, the price of acetic acid was 3712.50 yuan / ton, down 4.81% from 3900 yuan / ton on July 10 last weekend; The price of acetic acid fell violently, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the pressure of acetic anhydride fell was great.

Methanol prices fluctuated and fell

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the business club, the methanol price fell violently this week, and the methanol market fell violently. As of July 18, the methanol price was 2560 yuan / ton, down 2.66% from 2630 yuan / ton on July 10 last weekend. This week, the price of methanol fell, the raw material cost of acetic anhydride fell, the rising momentum of acetic anhydride weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Outlook

Analysts of acetic anhydride data of business agency believe that the prices of raw materials methanol and acetic acid fell violently this week, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the price of acetic anhydride still fell; The price of raw materials continued to decline and gradually approached the cost line. Although acetic anhydride still had profit space, with the reduction of profit space, manufacturers’ enthusiasm for starting fell, and the supply of acetic acid industrial chain in the future was expected to be reduced and strengthened. In general, the decline in the price of acetic anhydride raw materials remained the same, and the price of acetic anhydride fell in shock. In the future, the supply of acetic acid industrial chain is expected to decrease, and the price of acetic anhydride has limited room to fall.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of baking soda was consolidated and operated this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2766.67 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 2716.67 yuan / ton. The price fell by 1.81%, up 58.25% year-on-year. On July 14, the baking soda commodity index was 182.52, down 1.11 points from yesterday, down 22.61% from 235.84 points (2021-11-10), the highest point in the cycle, and up 106.77% from 88.27 points, the lowest point on December 22, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2020-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business news agency, the price of baking soda has been adjusted and operated, and the downstream market has been in general demand recently. At present, the price of baking soda in Henan is about 2550-3000 yuan / ton. Raw materials: according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of soda ash this week consolidated the operating market. The mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2850-3000 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2850-3000 yuan / ton.

Demand: downstream, medicine, textile and food have general demand for baking soda. In terms of raw materials, according to the monitoring data of the business society, the price of soda ash was consolidated and operated this week. The average market price of light soda ash was 2910 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2890 yuan / ton at the end of the week. The price fell by 0.69%, up 51.59% over the same period last year. In the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textiles and food is generally in the near future. In a comprehensive view, the price of baking soda is short-term or weak, depending on the downstream market demand.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China rose from 3800.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 3850.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 1.32%, down 17.50% year-on-year from the same period last year. On July 10, the carbide commodity index was 100.87, unchanged from yesterday, down 52.47% from the highest point of 212.23 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 81.78% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream cost support is weakened, and the demand of downstream manufacturers is insufficient

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose slightly this week: the price of calcium carbide in oviganon this weekend was 3900 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; The price of calcium carbide of Zoomlion in Inner Mongolia this weekend was 3850 yuan / ton, which increased by 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The price of calcium carbide in Xingping, Ningxia this weekend was 3800 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

Judging from the upstream raw material market, the market of Lanchan was temporarily stable this week. The market price of small and medium-sized materials of shenmulan charcoal is 1730-1800 yuan / ton; The market price of small and medium-sized materials of Fugu orchid charcoal is 1750-1800 yuan / ton; The market price of small and medium-sized materials of Yuyang orchid charcoal is about 1830 yuan / ton; The market price of small and medium-sized materials of Shizuishan orchid charcoal is 1850 yuan / ton; The market price of small and medium-sized materials of Ordos blue carbon is 1750 yuan / ton; The market price of Hohhot blue carbon small and medium-sized materials is 1750 yuan / ton; The market price of small and medium-sized materials of Hami blue carbon is 2200 yuan / ton; The market price of Changji blue carbon small and medium-sized materials is 1200-1780 yuan / ton.

Judging from the downstream market, the PVC market price fell slightly this week. The PVC market price this week fell from 7311.25 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 6850.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 6.31%, a year-on-year decrease of 23.68%. PVC market prices fell slightly, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement weakened, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

The downstream market fell slightly, and the aftermarket of calcium carbide may fall in a narrow range

In mid July, the carbide market may fall in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue carbon is weak, the cost support of calcium carbide is weakened, the downstream PVC market fell slightly, the downstream demand is weakened, and the power of calcium carbide rise is insufficient. In the aftermarket, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fall in a narrow range in mid July.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 5483.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 5366.67 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 2.13%. The ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable this week. The ex factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes this week is 4480 yuan / ton. On July 10, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 141.23, unchanged from yesterday, down 2.43% from the highest point of 144.74 in the cycle (2022-06-21), and up 46.03% from the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: the period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers fell slightly this week: the ex factory price of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend was about 4480 yuan / ton. Xiangyang youdeshi offered 5400 yuan / ton of potassium chloride this weekend, which fell by 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe offered 5300 yuan / ton of potassium chloride this weekend, which fell 150 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. Anhui Badou offered 5400 yuan / ton of potassium chloride this weekend, which fell by 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. The self raised price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 5100-5200 yuan / ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules in the port is about 5100-5200 yuan / ton. 62% Russian White potassium in border trade is about 4700-4800 yuan / ton. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is about 5000 yuan / ton.

Judging from the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex factory price of potassium carbonate was adjusted at a high level this week, with the price of 10125.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 42.81% year-on-year over the same period last year. The ex factory price of potassium nitrate fell slightly this week, from 7637.50 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7537.50 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 1.31%, an increase of 40.62% over the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride has a downward trend, and the downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride has weakened.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In mid July, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall in a narrow range. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge has been adjusted at a high level, but the market supply is still limited, and the supply is relatively tight. The downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, the downstream demand weakened, and just need to purchase. The international price of potash fertilizer fell sharply, and the total decline in some regions has reached about $150 / ton, equivalent to about 1005 yuan / ton. Potassium chloride analysts of business agency believe that the import price of domestic potassium chloride may fluctuate slightly in the short term.