1、 Price trend

The price of toluene fell this week, according to the data from the business news agency’s block list. On July 11, the price of toluene was 5860 yuan / ton; The price of this Sunday (July 18) was 5780 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton or 1.37% compared with last week; It was 69.5% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In the early stage, the toluene market was driven by the rise of crude oil, and the demand remained weak. This week, the international crude oil showed a decline as a whole, and Sinopec’s listing price was lowered, which aggravated the wait-and-see situation of toluene Market. In terms of external market, as of July 16, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 756 US dollars / ton, up 15 US dollars / ton, or 2.02%, from July 9.

In terms of crude oil, it is reported that OPEC + has reached an agreement or will further increase production from August. In addition, the spread of the mutated virus also depressed oil prices, and crude oil showed a downward trend this week. On July 9, Brent fell by $1.96 per barrel, or 2.59%; WTI fell $2.75 per barrel, or 3.69%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China remained stable this week, with domestic goods at 14333.33 yuan / ton, up 36.51% over the same period last year. The domestic TDI market is deadlocked in consolidation operation, the atmosphere in the market is rather wait-and-see, the enthusiasm of the downstream is not high, the purchase is mainly rigid demand, the offer of the goods holder is high, and the intention to sell is not high, and the market transaction is general.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable for two consecutive weeks this week, at 7100 yuan / ton, up 47.92% year-on-year. As of July 16, the closing prices in Asia were US $903-905 / T FOB Korea and US $921-923 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Downstream demand maintains just demand, crude oil has downward pressure, and toluene is expected to hold a stalemate next week. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external trend, toluene plant maintenance trends, toluene port inventory and downstream demand (gasoline blending market) on toluene prices.

Recent trend of sulfuric acid price

As can be seen from the figure above, the price of sulfuric acid Market in Shandong rose this week, from 643.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 670.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 4.15%, 56.73% year on year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the sulfuric acid market rose this week, with the sulfuric acid commodity index at 104.28 on July 16.

Downstream market boosted, purchasing intention strengthened

From the quotation of manufacturers, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong Province rose this week, the inventory of manufacturers was general, and the downstream demand was good. The quotation of Heze Jiangyuan sulfuric acid at the weekend is 730 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu quoted 630 yuan / ton this weekend, up 30 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei quoted 650 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the sulfur market in the upstream has been consolidated at a high level recently, with the quoted price of 1646.67 yuan / ton, which is 164.17% higher than that in the same period of last year, and the cost support is good. Moreover, the bromine market in the lower reaches was consolidated at a high level, with the quoted price of about 45300.00 yuan / ton this week, up 71.96% compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products have a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid this week.

After a small shock fell

In late July, the market of sulfuric acid in Shandong may fluctuate and fall slightly. The price of sulfur in the upper reaches has been consolidated at a high level recently, and the cost support is good. However, the price of bromine in the lower reaches has begun to decline slightly, the purchasing enthusiasm of sulfuric acid in the lower reaches has weakened, and the product trend has declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. Business community sulfuric acid analysts believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of the sulfuric acid market or small shocks down.

Commodity: SC crude oil

Price: 427.9 yuan / ton

Analysis: on Monday, crude oil fell significantly in the internal market, with main contract 08 closing at 427.9 yuan / ton, down 2.42%. Overnight crude oil remained weak, hovering at a low level. Main reasons: at the macro level, the US Federal Reserve is wavering under high inflation, and the US CPI rose more than expected in June. The market is generally worried about the tightening of monetary policy caused by high inflation pressure. At the same time, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) have implemented policies and reached an agreement on increasing production. The market expects that supply will increase. Under the severe trend of multi-national epidemic situation, the implementation of blockade measures to suppress fuel demand, etc.

Forecast: the business community believes that the recent crude oil market will be affected by the news, which will aggravate the shock. In the medium term, the epidemic has repeatedly reduced the demand for crude oil, and the future supply is not optimistic. Shale oil in the United States and OPEC oil producing countries are increasing production. With the passage of the North American driving season, there may be downward risks in oil prices, so it is recommended to wait and see carefully.

The magnesium market continued to rise this week. The price of magnesium rose steadily at the beginning of the week. The market transactions followed one after another. The market trading was the direct reason for the rise of magnesium price. As of July 16, the market quotation of magnesium ingots in mainstream areas in China has exceeded 200 million / T. As of July 16, the specific price ranges of each region are as follows:

In fugu area, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 20100-20200 yuan / ton; The ex factory cash including tax in Ningxia is 20100-20200 yuan / ton; In Taiyuan area, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 20200-20300 yuan / ton; In Wenxi area, the ex factory cash including tax is 20300-20400 yuan / ton.

Market analysis

From the perspective of raw materials, the high cost of ferrosilicon and coke still exists, and the pressure of raw material cost of magnesium plant still exists.

From the perspective of inventory, some magnesium plants are in the maintenance period. Due to the environmental protection inspection in Yulin, Shaanxi Province, and the active trading in the downstream market, the inventory of magnesium plants is released and the spot quantity is small.

From the perspective of demand, the downstream customers are affected by the sentiment of “buy up but not buy down”, the market transaction is hot, and the downstream end replenishment is positive.

Future forecast

From the perspective of supply and demand, at present, the cost of raw material market is still high and stable, the inventory in the spot market is tight, and the downstream customers are actively purchasing. in summary. Business community analysts believe that the downstream demand has been released a few days ago. In the case of high magnesium price, the downstream demand will be reduced compared with before. In the short term, the magnesium ingot Market will have limited rise, but still maintain a strong operation.

Price trend:

According to the data of business club’s block list, in early July, the domestic ABS market fluctuated in a narrow range, and the spot prices of various brands fluctuated. As of July 12, the average price of general ABS mainstream offer was about 17800 yuan / ton, up 0.56% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and 34.34% compared with the same period last year.

Factor analysis:

In terms of raw material styrene, the domestic Styrene Market accepted the early rebound market, and the spot price dropped slightly in the near future. Crude oil callback, benzene narrow price reduction, ethylene stable, styrene cost side did not change significantly. At present, domestic styrene plant restart and maintenance coexist, new production delay, production increase is expected to be reduced. Under the long short game, styrene is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term.

Upstream butadiene: in early July, the domestic butadiene market continued the upward trend in June. Affected by the rise of the external market, the domestic supplier prices strengthened, and merchants’ offers followed the rise. Coupled with the gradual recovery of downstream construction, support middlemen offer up, the market is difficult to find low-cost sources. Although some downstream devices restart, the poor performance of the terminal industry leads to the caution of downstream users. Business analysts expect the market to sort out slightly.

The recent ABS cost side market is fair, and the overall support for ABS cost side is relatively stable. In terms of enterprise load, the maintenance of Shandong Jianghai and Jihua has not been resumed; According to the news, Tongliao chemical overhaul plan is about to start, the loss of production capacity caused some brand prices to rise. The market supply has been tightened, and there is a partial shortage in East China. In addition, the terminal enterprises’ demand for goods has increased recently, and the trading volume has increased, so the spot price has gained some support.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in early July, the ABS spot market fluctuated, the trend of raw materials was acceptable, and the support for ABS cost was relatively stable. At present, the lower reaches of the industry show demand for goods, enterprises and businesses have strong willingness to support prices, and the on-site inquiry and actual trading have increased compared with the previous period. In addition, the supply of some brands is less, and the market is supported. It is expected that the ABS spot market will be strong in the near future.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price mainly fluctuated in a narrow range this week. By the end of the week, the spot copper price was 68670 yuan / ton, up 0.08% from 68616.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 18.49% from the beginning of the year, and up 35.66% from the same period last year.

Since late June, copper prices have fluctuated between 67000-70000 yuan / ton. On July 5, the first batch of 20000 tons of copper was put on the market at the price of 67700 yuan / ton by the State Reserve Bureau. To some extent, the government’s dumping of reserves affected the rise of copper prices, but the overall impact was small.

With the popularization of vaccines, overseas copper supply has recovered from the epidemic, and the release of newly expanded copper production capacity in 2021 will be gradually reflected in the second half of the year. However, due to the political risks of Chile and Peru, the authorities’ attitude towards mining will affect the decision-making of capital expenditure of mining enterprises.

The output of refined copper in May was 866000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%; From January to may, the cumulative output was 4.244 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 14.1%. In July, there was less maintenance in the refinery, the processing fee rebounded, the profit was fair, and the output of refined copper was expected to increase.

There was no significant increase in demand, and the copper output in May was 1.838 million tons, down 10.3% year on year; From January to may, the cumulative output was 8.206 million tons, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate dropped to 3.5%.

To sum up, the macro situation in July was relatively stable, the supply of copper was gradually relaxed, the demand was relatively light, and the continuous rise of copper price showed insufficient momentum. Copper prices are expected to remain range bound in the short term.

Corn price arrangement, the carrier is mostly in a loss state, the main production of fuel, food inventory is not high, price sorting operation. According to the sample data monitored by the business society, as of July 6, the price of domestic ethanol market was 6962 yuan / ton, with the price rising 2.20% on a month basis, and the price increased by 15.32% year on year.

Domestic ethanol market is weak finishing. The price of small factories in Northeast China is weak under the positive attitude of delivery, the price of East China Shandong is weak, the price is weak under the market weak mentality, and the price in Henan is stable.

Corn prices continued to pick up from the raw materials. With the price of corn rising, the arrival of deep processing in the production area has not increased significantly, trade inventory pressure is still in place, demand support is weak, and short-term prices continue to fluctuate. With the further decline of domestic corn inventory, the consumption of corn at the demand end continues to increase. Downstream, the market range of ethyl acetate fluctuated, and it was raised from 8800-8950 yuan / ton of cash. The market price has been low, but the mainstream manufacturers are shipping smoothly at low prices, and the market is waiting for a while.

The latest price trends of ethanol market in various regions:

Region, category, price

Guangxi Honey alcohol 7300-7350 yuan / ton

Guangxi 95% alcohol 6950-7200 yuan / ton

Guangxi Anhydrous ethanol 7700-7900 yuan / ton

Guangdong Cassava alcohol About 7150 yuan / ton

Guangdong 95% ethanol 6950-7200 yuan / ton

Guangdong Ethanol of anhydrous cassava 7750-7900 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Universal 6700-6750 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Corn superior 6900-7500 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Corn is anhydrous 7500 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu Universal 7000-7050 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu Universal 6450-6500 yuan / ton

Anhui Cassava universal 6900-6950 yuan / ton

Anhui anhydrous 7650-7700 yuan / ton

Henan region Superior 6830-6850 yuan / ton tax included

Henan region Anhydrous ethanol 7400-7650 yuan / ton tax included

Hebei Province Universal 6900-6950 yuan / ton

Hebei Province Coal is anhydrous 7600-7700 yuan / ton

Sichuan Corn alcohol Tax included about 7550-7650 yuan / ton

Yunnan Molasses alcohol 6950-7100 yuan / ton

Yunnan Cassava alcohol About 6900 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang Province Corn alcohol universal 6350 yuan / ton tax included

Jilin area General alcohol 6450 yuan / ton tax included

The price of corn is weak, and the price of cassava is weak under the condition of the small domestic purchase quantity. The enterprise may be weak because of the weak demand downstream. The ethanol analysts of business agency expect that in the short term, the domestic ethanol market is mainly in weak consolidation.

Recent trend of sulfuric acid price

As can be seen from the above figure, the distribution price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province was temporarily stable this week, with the quoted price of 603.33 yuan / ton, up 101.11% compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s sulfuric acid market was temporarily stable, with the sulfuric acid commodity index at 93.90 on July 2.

Downstream market boosted, purchasing intention strengthened

From the quotation of manufacturers, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong this week is temporarily stable, the inventory of manufacturers is general, and the downstream demand is better. At the end of the week, Heze Jiangyuan quoted 630 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu quoted 530 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei quoted 650 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the sulfur market in the upstream has risen steadily in recent years, with the quotation rising from 1633.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1643.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.61%, 151.53% year-on-year compared with the same period last year, and the cost support is good. However, the bromine market in the lower reaches was consolidated at a high level, and the quoted price dropped from 46062.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 45875.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.41%, up 71.32% year on year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products have a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid this week.

After a small shock up

In the first ten days of July, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong may rise slightly. The price of sulfur in the upper reaches has been consolidated at a high level recently, and the cost support is good. Moreover, the price of bromine in the lower reaches has also begun to rise. The purchasing enthusiasm of sulfuric acid in the lower reaches has been strengthened, and the product trend has risen under the contradiction between supply and demand. Business community sulfuric acid analysts believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of sulfuric acid market or small shock rise.

Commodity index: the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on June 29 was 95.57, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 12.33% compared with 109.01 points (August 28, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 13.34% compared with 84.32 points, the lowest point on August 18, 2020（ Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

It is found that the market of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride in China’s domestic market has shown a trend of short-term rise, then decline and continued to weaken since the commencement of construction in 2021. On February 18, the domestic mainstream price was 1791.67 yuan / ton, while on March 30, the mainstream price was 1718.57 yuan / ton, down by about 4.18%; In April, the mainstream market of polyaluminum chloride in Henan Province of China fluctuated slightly, with an amplitude of less than 1%, with little change. By April 29, the mainstream quotation was 1717.14 yuan / ton, so far, the overall decline was 4.16%. In May, the market of China’s (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) solid polyaluminum chloride showed a fluctuating upward trend in the early stage, and then decreased at the end of the month: the domestic mainstream price was 1720 yuan / ton on the 1st, 1756.67 yuan / ton on the 30th, and 1723.33 yuan / ton on the 31st. Among them, the main influencing factor is the change of raw material price. In June, the price of China’s (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) solid polyaluminum chloride fluctuated slightly. At the end of the month, the raw material hydrochloric acid was under control, and the polyaluminum chloride manufacturers also stopped production for about a week. The market price did not change much, with 1710 yuan / ton on the 1st and 1723.33 yuan / ton on the 29th, with an adjustment rate of only 0.78%.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: according to the data of business society, the overall market of hydrochloric acid manufacturers showed a fluctuating downward trend in February, but in the nearly half month after the Spring Festival, hydrochloric acid experienced a rise of about 4%, and then recovered by about 10%. In March, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China fluctuated and rose. On March 1, the mainstream market quotation was about 172 yuan / ton, and on March 30, it was about 197.5 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of nearly 15%. The upstream liquid chlorine market rose by 17% this month, with strong cost support. The maintenance of downstream enterprises of hydrochloric acid increased, and the demand decreased. The hydrochloric acid supply enterprises had more inventory, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was general, and the market supply exceeded the demand. The support of downstream silica is relatively low, and the monthly price fluctuation is no more than 1%. The support of ammonium chloride is strong, and the monthly rise is 14%. The downstream demand of “Jinshan” hydrochloric acid is gradually increasing, resulting in the fluctuation of hydrochloric acid up about 15% this month. In April, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China was volatile and downward: on April 1, the mainstream market quotation was about 243.33 yuan / ton, and on April 29, it was about 226.67 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of about 6.85%. In May, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China showed a slight upward trend. On the 1st, the mainstream market quotation was 226.67 yuan / ton. On the 17th, the price of hydrochloric acid mixture in Shandong increased by 6.66 yuan / ton, or 2.94%. After that, the price temporarily stabilized around 223.33 yuan / ton. In June, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China was volatile and stable after upward adjustment, with the mainstream quotation of 223.33 yuan / ton on the 1st and 230 yuan / ton on the 29th, up 2.99%. Calcium powder: according to the manufacturers in the main production area, in the first half of the year, the price of calcium powder also increased significantly after the Spring Festival, followed by the price increase in May, and the current price is relatively stable.

Secondly, LNG is used in the production process. In February, due to many negative factors such as weak demand, sufficient supply, superimposed feed gas, and declining cost support, the shipment of liquid plants was under pressure, and the domestic LNG market fell by more than 30%. In March, the price of gas source rose, which boosted the market sentiment, added up with the downstream replenishment before the festival, and the low operation of some manufacturers’ devices in some areas, which jointly boosted the rise of liquid price, with a range of up to 30% in that month. In April, the heating period in northern China ended, and the market officially entered the off-season. The supporting force of demand side gradually declined, and the favorable factors such as early maintenance were exhausted. Due to the weak demand, the LNG market was down, with a monthly decline of about 16%. After the May holiday, the restrictions on the transportation of high-speed dangerous chemicals were lifted, the demand for vehicles increased after the holiday, the maintenance of superimposed liquid plants increased, the supply was tightened, the inventory of enterprises was low, and the price of imported gas rose. Driven by this, the domestic liquid price rose in a straight line. The overall trend was up down up, with a monthly increase of 46%. It performed well in the off-season of consumption. During the Dragon Boat Festival, the price of downstream replenishment and raw gas rose, and the liquid market ushered in a wave of rising trend. This month’s market showed four stages of fall rise fall rise rise. The rise and fall of the whole month were almost offset from 3626 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3666 yuan / ton at the end of the month. With the positive attitude of manufacturers in supporting prices at the end of June, and under the psychology of buying up but not buying down, the market trading atmosphere has improved. It is expected that with the reduction of bidding in July to boost the market sentiment, the industry’s wait-and-see attitude will remain unchanged.

Downstream demand: in the first half of this year, the downstream demand of polyaluminum chloride has not improved greatly. According to the enterprises, the overall demand from 2021 to now is average, coupled with environmental protection inspection, the enterprises are under great pressure, and the downstream demand is generally not as good as that in 2020. At the end of June, after receiving the production limit notice from yingqiyi environmental protection company, the company will stop production until the beginning of next month, which is expected to take about a week. In the current demand, if the inventory is not affected, the price will not have great support.

Future forecast: according to the situation reflected by the manufacturers, the downstream demand of polyaluminum chloride is general in 2021. Although it has stopped production from time to time, the inventory is sufficient, and the change of raw material cost is relatively weak. The LNG for production will be affected by the crude oil price, supported by the supply side and cost side, and the favorable bidding in July, which may boost the market sentiment, But the impact on the current market of water treatment products is not obvious. To sum up, in the first half of the year, the market of polyaluminum chloride basically fluctuated in a small range. In the third quarter, if the transportation control time of hydrochloric acid is long and the raw material cost price rises, then we can’t rule out the rising market. At present, it seems that the market will be stable, even if there are fluctuations, it will be adjusted in a small range.

Trade name: dichloromethane

Latest price (June 28): 3770 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong was 3770 yuan / ton on the 28th, down 4.39% compared with the previous day. Over the weekend, the factory prices of some dichloromethane manufacturers in Shandong Province were lowered. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of June 28, the dichloromethane bulk water of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. had been delivered in cash at 3890 yuan / ton; Shandong Jinling dichloromethane bulk water ex works at 3670 yuan / ton. Recently, the overall start-up of domestic methane chloride plant has been improved, and the supply has increased slightly, which has an impact on the formation of partial empty dichloromethane. In addition, the price of liquid chlorine dropped sharply. As of the 28th, the mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine for tank cars in Shandong Province was 850 yuan / ton, and the cost was mainly empty.

Future forecast: on the one hand, the price of raw material liquid chlorine has dropped sharply; on the other hand, the domestic start-up of methane chloride has generally increased, and the impact of cost and supply side is mainly short. It is expected that dichloromethane will be weak in the future.