Worried about overcapacity, nickel price slightly corrected (9.20-9.24)

1、 Trend analysis


According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, the nickel price rose first and then fell this week. As of September 24, the spot price was 145900 yuan / ton, down 0.6% from 146783.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 13.87% from the beginning of the week and 28.13% year-on-year.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices rose by 7 and fell by 5, and weakened in the past two weeks.

Macro factors: the global epidemic situation was severe, and the external market was weak during the holidays. Subsequently, the oil price continued to rise, reaching a new high in nearly a week, and US stocks rebounded higher. The Fed’s September minutes were hawkish, driving the dollar index up, and the trend of nickel price was weak.

Nickel industry chain

Supply: nickel ore prices continue to be strong and cost support is strong. Ferronickel is also affected by double control, which will reduce production, and there is a gap in downstream stainless steel, which needs to be filled by nickel plate.

Benzalkonium chloride

Downstream: 300 series stainless steel decreased by 12.97% to 1.28 million tons in September compared with August. Assuming that stainless steel maintains high-intensity production reduction in the fourth quarter, the annual ferronickel gap is 50900 tons, and the supply and demand of ferronickel is in a relatively tight balance from September to October. In August, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles were 309000 and 321000 respectively, an increase of 1.8 times year-on-year; The loading capacity of power battery was 12.6gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 144.9% and a month on month increase of 11.2%.

Import and export: according to customs statistics, China’s nickel ore import volume in August was 5.7771 million tons, with a month on month increase of 11.37% and a year-on-year increase of 53.43%. In August, China’s ferronickel import volume was 349700 tons, with a month on month increase of 24.40% and a year-on-year increase of 19.78%. In August, China’s Refined Nickel import volume was 29243.762 tons, with a month on month increase of 30.18% and a year-on-year increase of 186.31%. The export volume of refined nickel was 114.83 tons, with a month on month decrease of 54.73% and a year-on-year decrease of 89.20%.

To sum up: the decline of nickel price this week is mainly due to the upgrading of dual control in many provinces in China. As a raw material, nickel is worried about surplus, so the price has fallen sharply. In addition, macro also has a negative impact on metals. However, nickel supply is still tight, and the development of new energy industry chain is good. It is expected that the short-term or shock of nickel price is weak, but the long-term price is still strong.


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