1ă Trend analysis
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According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, the nickel price rose first and then fell this week. As of September 24, the spot price was 145900 yuan / ton, down 0.6% from 146783.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 13.87% from the beginning of the week and 28.13% year-on-year.
Nickel weekly rise and fall chart
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices rose by 7 and fell by 5, and weakened in the past two weeks.
Macro factors: the global epidemic situation was severe, and the external market was weak during the holidays. Subsequently, the oil price continued to rise, reaching a new high in nearly a week, and US stocks rebounded higher. The Fed’s September minutes were hawkish, driving the dollar index up, and the trend of nickel price was weak.
Nickel industry chain
Supply: nickel ore prices continue to be strong and cost support is strong. Ferronickel is also affected by double control, which will reduce production, and there is a gap in downstream stainless steel, which needs to be filled by nickel plate.
Benzalkonium chloride |
Downstream: 300 series stainless steel decreased by 12.97% to 1.28 million tons in September compared with August. Assuming that stainless steel maintains high-intensity production reduction in the fourth quarter, the annual ferronickel gap is 50900 tons, and the supply and demand of ferronickel is in a relatively tight balance from September to October. In August, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles were 309000 and 321000 respectively, an increase of 1.8 times year-on-year; The loading capacity of power battery was 12.6gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 144.9% and a month on month increase of 11.2%.
Import and export: according to customs statistics, China’s nickel ore import volume in August was 5.7771 million tons, with a month on month increase of 11.37% and a year-on-year increase of 53.43%. In August, China’s ferronickel import volume was 349700 tons, with a month on month increase of 24.40% and a year-on-year increase of 19.78%. In August, China’s Refined Nickel import volume was 29243.762 tons, with a month on month increase of 30.18% and a year-on-year increase of 186.31%. The export volume of refined nickel was 114.83 tons, with a month on month decrease of 54.73% and a year-on-year decrease of 89.20%.
To sum up: the decline of nickel price this week is mainly due to the upgrading of dual control in many provinces in China. As a raw material, nickel is worried about surplus, so the price has fallen sharply. In addition, macro also has a negative impact on metals. However, nickel supply is still tight, and the development of new energy industry chain is good. It is expected that the short-term or shock of nickel price is weak, but the long-term price is still strong.
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