In early August, the overall domestic propane market rose first and then consolidated. The average price of propane in Shandong is expected to rise to 5000 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 4748.25 yuan / ton on August 1 and 4900.75 yuan / ton on August 6. At the beginning of the month, the overall increase was 3.21% and the maximum amplitude was 4.42%.

As of August 6, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

region Specifications August 6th

East China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4800-4950 yuan / ton

North China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4850-4900 yuan / ton

Shandong region Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4830-4920 yuan / ton

South China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4720-4850 yuan / ton

Central China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4980-5200 yuan / ton

In August, the domestic propane market continued the rising trend in July and continued to be dominant as a whole. In the first week of August, the propane market rose first and then consolidated. At the beginning of the week, there were many positive factors in the propane Market, and the price ushered in a significant increase. When CP was introduced in August, both propylene and butane increased and exceeded expectations. The high import cost brought major support to the domestic market. In addition, the market supply decreased, and the prices of ports and refineries increased. However, in the late part of the week, the propane market was not strong enough, and the price fell back. International crude oil rose first and then fell this week. The news is bad market mentality. In addition, the weather in August is hot. The propane market is affected by seasonal factors and the terminal demand is weak, which has significantly restrained the market. Most domestic regions made certain adjustments according to the shipment situation. In the later part of the week, the northern market decreased slightly, and the southern market mostly delivered steadily.

Saudi Aramco announced in August that both propylene and butane rose. Propane was 660 USD / T, up 40 USD / T from the previous month; Butane is 655 USD / T, up 35 USD / T compared with the previous month.

At present, the market is empty and intertwined. The rebound of international crude oil on August 5 has given a certain boost to the market, and the port price is high. However, due to the weak terminal demand, there is no significant improvement, which has restrained the rising market. The northern market was adjusted in a narrow range, while the southern market was dominated by stable shipments. It is expected that there will be a slight rise in the propane Market in the later stage. Specifically, we still need to pay attention to the trend of international crude oil.

Spot market: according to the test data of business agency, recently, the market quotation of pure polyester yarn has shown a stable, medium and slight rise. 32S pure polyester yarn is reported at about 14575 yuan / ton, up 125 yuan / ton from 14450 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The market sales showed a flat trend, and some varieties took the goods in general. According to some market participants, the actual sales in the market are basically general, the price is basically stable, there are still few large downstream orders, the purchase enthusiasm is not high, and the yarn manufacturers mainly consume the inventory of the industrial chain. The staff of the yarn factory generally reflect that the profit of the yarn factory is the best in recent years. At present, there are waves in the sales market from time to time. The production and sales of the yarn factory are still balanced, the inventory is basically small, and the manufacturer’s mentality is basically good.

Upstream polyester staple fiber: today, the contract price of staple fiber pf2109 closed at 7166 yuan / ton, down 0.39% from the previous trading day. The production and sales of staple fiber factory are weak, and the spot processing difference is compressed to 700 yuan / ton, which is in a state of negative cash flow. Poor production and sales, superimposed low processing space, increased parking devices in staple fiber plant, and increased maintenance concentration compared with the previous period. At present, the operating load of the industry is 85%, down 5% compared with the previous week.

Downstream demand: weak new orders, high inventory, tight working capital, superposition of epidemic reasons, the start of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms fell. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms decreased to 79%, and Changshu warp knitting was 80-90%; 80% of Haining warp knitting and Siyang water spraying; Changxing water spray 90% slightly lower; About 60% of Xiao Shaoyuan machine; Wujiang water spray is 80%, slightly higher.

Jiangsu and Zhejiang terminal factory procurement followed up cautiously. Crude oil is weak and the atmosphere of new orders at the terminal is poor. Therefore, at present, the downstream mainly focuses on the preparation of raw materials in the early stage, and the procurement follow-up under the low promotion price last week is limited. Up to now, the raw materials of the terminal factory have been prepared from mid August to late August.

Since the beginning of this month, new orders for terminal grey cloth have weakened; Last week, new orders for warp knitting, circular knitting machine and water jet grey cloth weakened comprehensively, and the export volume also decreased again. In terms of inventory, the inventory of woven and knitted varieties has entered a high level, and the subsequent funds of cloth merchants and manufacturers are weak.

In addition, the recent epidemic situation has been repeated, unforeseen factors have increased, some markets are in a semi closed state, and manufacturers’ production prudence has increased.

Suggestion: pay attention to the impact of the epidemic and the demand for downstream orders.

1、 Market price trend chart of nitric acid

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of concentrated nitric acid in China last Friday was 2600 yuan / ton, and the average price on August 2 was 3096 yuan / ton, up 19.1%.

2、 Market analysis

On August 2, Anhui Jinhe offered 3200 yuan / ton, an increase of 100 yuan / ton compared with the last time; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2890 yuan / ton for concentrated nitric acid, 1180 yuan / ton for dilute nitric acid, and 690 yuan / ton for concentrated nitric acid; The quotation of Shandong helitai concentrated nitric acid is 3200 yuan / ton, an increase of 700 yuan / ton compared with the last time; Anhui Aodeli concentrated nitric acid quoted 3100 yuan / ton, a decrease of 200 yuan / ton compared with the last time; The ex factory quotation of Shaanxi Xinghua Chemical concentrated nitric acid is 2650 yuan / ton, an increase of 150 yuan / ton compared with the last time. The nitric acid market has different trading, the quotation rises and falls, the supply of nitric acid is locally tight, the trading is OK, and the quotation is increased.

The production price of upstream liquid ammonia in Shandong fell by 1.71% this week (8.2-8.6), according to the monitoring of business society. For downstream aniline, the domestic market price of aniline was temporarily stable this week (8.2-8.6). Downstream TDI fell 1.67% in East China market this week (8.2-8.6).

3、 Future forecast

Nitric acid rose by a large margin. Nitric acid analysts of business society expect that nitric acid may be mainly adjusted, and the rising space is limited.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 rose and fell in July, and the rise of spot price was blocked. As of July 31, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 for China viscosity was about 15366.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.77% over the average price at the beginning of the month and 40.12% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

In terms of upstream caprolactam, the domestic caprolactam spot market rose in July and fluctuated at a high level. In July, the positive supply side was undertaken at the end of June, and the increase of this month was also concentrated in the first ten days of this month. In the middle of the month, international crude oil fell, while the supply of direct raw material pure benzene was expected to increase, the downward pressure increased, and the rise of domestic caprolactam was blocked. At the end of the month, although the trend of raw material pure benzene did not improve, the supply side support remained due to the tight supply of factory maintenance. On the demand side, there is no obvious benefit, and it is expected that the price of caprolactam will be stable in the short term.

The upstream caprolactam price range remained high, and the positive cost side of PA6 supported the rise of spot price in early July. However, the high cost pressure suppressed the operating rate of polymerization plants. In July, the load of domestic PA6 polymerization plants changed less than that at the beginning of the month, stabilizing at about 60%. The market demand is sluggish, the consumption of terminal enterprises has not yet come out of the off-season market, and there is a heavy wait-and-see atmosphere in the venue. Among them, the feedback of high-speed spinning chips is acceptable due to the positive impact of cost, and the price of conventional spinning in the middle and late days is mainly limited. I heard that most of the manufacturers’ actual shipments are early orders, and many merchants have active shipment operations. At present, buyers are in the mood of offsetting the high price supply, and the preparation operation is biased towards the just needed replenishment to maintain production.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that caprolactam in the upstream of PA6 remained stable after rising in July, which supports the cost of PA6. In the first ten days, PA6 passively followed the rise of raw materials. Although the cost pressure compressed the operating rate of the industry, the domestic chip inventory still increased and the supply side was weakened. The end-users followed up slowly, the venue resisted the supply of high-priced goods, the spot was under pressure in the middle and late days, and the merchants gradually let the profits ship. At present, the market has a strong wait-and-see mentality. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 may weaken in a narrow range in the short term.

Orthobenzene market remained stable

According to the data monitoring of business society, since the price of orthobenzene rose slightly in early May, the price of orthobenzene remained stable for two and a half consecutive months. In August, the price of orthobenzene rose again, and the market of orthobenzene finally rose. In August, the listing price of o-benzene was 6300 yuan / ton, an increase of 100 yuan / ton or 1.61% over the listing price of 6200 yuan / ton in July.

The price of raw materials fluctuated and stabilized

According to the data test of business society, since July, the price of mixed xylene has first increased and then decreased, the overall mixed xylene market has stabilized, the price of raw materials in the upstream of o-benzene has stabilized, and the rising power of o-benzene market still exists, and the downward pressure has weakened.

The downstream market continued to rise

According to the data of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride rose continuously in July, and the phthalic anhydride market warmed up sharply. The downstream market of ortho benzene rose, the demand for ortho benzene warmed up, the demand for ortho benzene was strong, and the rising power of ortho benzene increased.

Future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of o-xylene in business society, believes that since May, the high price shock of mixed xylene has stabilized, the cost of o-xylene is stable, and the driving force for the rise of o-xylene is still weak; In July, the downstream phthalic anhydride market rose sharply, the downstream demand for o-benzene warmed up, and the downstream rising power of o-benzene increased. Overall, the recovery of downstream demand stimulated the rise of orthobenzene market, and the price of orthobenzene finally rose in August.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 14450 yuan / ton on July 26 and 14550 yuan / ton on July 30. The price of caprolactam rose 0.69% this week.

2、 Market analysis

As of July 30, Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid price was 15300 yuan / ton, 400000 tons / year, the unit was started normally, and the caprolactam unit was in normal operation. Sinopec caprolactam liquid price is 14900 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 14900 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 14900 yuan / ton, 300000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. Shandong Luxi Chemical caprolactam liquid price is 14200 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s production capacity is 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be negotiated.

The average price of raw material pure benzene this week was 8210 yuan / ton, down 2.84% from the beginning of the month. As the exchange trading atmosphere weakened, the price of styrene fell, and the pure benzene market was worrying. The downstream PA6 starts stably, and the demand for caprolactam is acceptable.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that although the trend of raw material pure benzene is poor, the supply side has a certain support for the caprolactam market due to the tight supply of factory maintenance, and the demand side is not good for the time being. The price of caprolactam is expected to be stable in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the sulfur price trend in East China ran smoothly this week. On July 25, the average sulfur production price was 1646.67 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price on July 19, an increase of 0.20% compared with the beginning of July.

The domestic sulfur market is dominated by consolidation and operation, refineries in various regions are stable and small, downstream factories mostly purchase on demand, a small number of orders in the market, the spot in the port is relatively concentrated, the quantity of supply ships is limited, and the on-site mentality is partial to wait-and-see. During the week, refineries in various regions in China adjusted their prices according to their own shipments. The price of liquid sulfur was increased by 20-30 yuan / ton, and the price of sulfur fixation was temporarily stable. As of the 25th, the prices of sulfur in various regions in China are as follows:

region varieties July 25th

East China Sulfur (particle) 1680-1740 yuan / ton

North China Sulfur (particle) 1470-1600 yuan / ton

Shandong region Sulfur (particle) 1620-1640 yuan / ton

In the downstream phosphate fertilizer market, the price trend of Monoammonium was stable, and diammonium rose slightly. Monoammonium enterprises have sufficient orders, mainly digest early export orders, accept a small number of new orders, have limited spot supply, tight on-site supply and maintain a high price. Domestic demand for diammonium is strong, and enterprises mainly supply export orders in the early stage. Coupled with the approaching fertilizer use in autumn, domestic demand is good, and the future market may continue to rise. Comprehensive phosphate fertilizer market analysis has a good support for the later trend of upstream sulfur.

According to the sulfur analysts of business society, the domestic sulfur market remains stable at a high level, the production and sales of refineries in various regions are stable, and the market trading is good. In addition, the downstream phosphate fertilizer supports the sulfur market, the operator has a positive attitude, and the future sulfur market will continue to be sorted out at a high level, paying specific attention to the market transaction.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of baking soda is strong, and the average market price is 1900 yuan / ton. The soda commodity index on July 26 was 125.00, which was flat with yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 41.61 percent from the lowest point of 88.27 on December 22, 2020（ Note: the cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the price of baking soda is strong and the demand of downstream market is good in the near future. At present, the price of baking soda in Henan Province is about 1850-1950 yuan, and the downstream demand is still available. It is expected that the price will be stable in the near future. The price of baking soda in Hebei Province is about 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and the downstream demand is still available. It is expected that the price will be strong in the later period.

Raw materials: according to the monitoring data of business society, according to the monitoring data of business society, the prices in East China are stable and small, and the current mainstream market price of light soda is about 1950-2050 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is stable temporarily, and the current market price of light soda is about 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in Central China is stable temporarily, and the current market price of light soda is about 1900-2000 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the high price operation of short-term soda ash is mainly.

Demand: downstream side medicine, textile, food demand for baking soda in the near future is still acceptable, the price of baking soda in the near future is strong. Analysts of business society think: domestic soda price is strong, market investment atmosphere is relatively stable, manufacturers are mainly active in shipping. The demand for baking soda in downstream medicine, textile and food has improved in the near future. In a comprehensive view, the price of baking soda is short-term or high, and the demand of downstream market is seen.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of July 26, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 14700 yuan / ton, down 4.55% compared with the price on July 20, up 12.50% compared with the price at the beginning of the month, and up 13.66% compared with the price on June 26.

The epichlorohydrin market rose strongly in the middle and early days of July, with an increase of 17.86%. Since late July, the market situation of epichlorohydrin has dropped, and the tight spot supply situation in the market continues, but the demand side is depressed, the downstream market entry mood is cautious, the market buying mood is not high, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, the shipment of goods holders is weak, the low price offer appears in the market, and the overall atmosphere is light.

Upstream propylene, according to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market turned around and continued to rise this week (7.19-7.23). At the beginning of the week, the market was 7673 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7809 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.66%.

For downstream epoxy resin, as of July 23, the liquid epoxy resin Market in East China had declined as a whole, and the high-end offer had declined significantly. The mainstream of the local market negotiated the ex factory price of 32000 / T barrel.

Business society epichlorohydrin analysts believe that, in general, the current downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, mainly on demand, the mentality continues to be cautious, and the lack of demand is still a constraint. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may run weakly in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the domestic polyester filament market has maintained a rising trend this week, including the quotation of polyester POY (150D / 48F) in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang at 7800-8050 yuan / ton, polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) at 9300-9600 yuan / ton, and polyester FDY (150D / 96F) at 7900-8200 yuan / ton.

Rise and fall of average price of polyester filament market this week, unit: yuan / ton

product 2021-7-19 2021-7-23 Rise and fall Year on year rise and fall

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) eight thousand and twenty-five eight thousand and seventy-five 0.62% 45.38%

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) seven thousand seven hundred and seventy-seven seven thousand and nine hundred 1.57% 56.67%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) nine thousand three hundred and sixty-five nine thousand four hundred and eighty-eight 1.31% 43.60%

The PTA Market for raw materials was opened on July 22, and the main futures contracts rose strongly to 5330 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.00%. The average price in the spot market was 5361 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 3.73% and a year-on-year increase of 51.83%. Under high temperature, the demand for polyester is not weak in the off-season, and the operating rate is close to 90%. The maintenance of PTA unit remained high, which superimposed the impact of recent typhoon weather in East China on its transportation, and exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand in some regions in the short term. At the same time, the oil price stabilized and rebounded, and the support at the support end increased, leading to the rise of PTA market.

Due to the improvement of downstream fabrics in autumn and winter, early preparation and better expectation in the second half of the year, in fact, the weaving end has already begun to rebound, and the startup rate is rising sharply. At present, the comprehensive startup rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 79.63%, higher than the level in the same period last year, and the weaving Market is getting warmer locally. Among them, autumn orders in Shengze area are issued sporadically. Due to the rise in the price of raw materials, some weaving factories produce in advance. Foreign trade orders can be issued in August, and subsequent foreign trade orders may continue to be issued. The delivery of low-cost grey cloth in Changxing weaving Market is fast. A small number of domestic orders are issued in autumn, and foreign trade orders are issued one after another. Some factories say that the orders are 2-3 weeks, and the orders are more, up to about 4 weeks.

Business analysts believe that near the end of the month and with the launch of autumn orders in the textile market, the atmosphere for raw material procurement has improved, but they are cautious in chasing the rise. PTA raw material will continue to warm in the short term under the tightening expectation. It is still necessary to close the dynamics of oil injection Market and guard against the risk of price decline after typhoon weather speculation. It is expected that in the short term, supported by favorable costs, the price of polyester filament will remain the main player, but the increase will be narrowed.