Recent price trend of isooctanol

It can be seen from the above figure that the ex-factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of isooctanol mainstream manufacturers in Shandong increased from 10533.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10666.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 1.27%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 11.60% year-on-year. The isooctanol commodity index on February 5 was 78.43, which was the same as yesterday, down 42.96% from the highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08) in the cycle, and up 123.13% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is weakened, and the downstream demand is better

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex-factory quotation of Shandong isooctanol mainstream manufacturers rose slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 7670.60 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7538.25 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.73%, down 2.74% year-on-year. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the factory price of DOP rose slightly this week. The price of DOP rose from 10220.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10710.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 4.79%, down 6.26% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices rose slightly, and downstream customers actively increased their purchase of isooctanol.

Future prospects

In the middle and late February, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province was mainly subject to small fluctuations. The upstream propylene market fell slightly and cost support weakened. Downstream DOP market has a downward trend, and downstream demand has weakened. The isooctanol analyst of the business agency believes that the short-term domestic isooctanol market may fall mainly due to small fluctuations under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the Business News Agency, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 9025 yuan/ton on January 1, and the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 9008 yuan/ton on January 31. The domestic thermal phosphoric acid price fell 0.18% this month.

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid in China was 8966 yuan/ton on January 1, and the average market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid in China was 9116 yuan/ton on January 31. The domestic wet-process phosphoric acid price rose 1.67% this month.

2、 Market analysis

In January, the phosphoric acid market was shaken and put into operation. At the beginning of January, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus was adjusted and operated, and the cost side did not change much. Before the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises of phosphoric acid successively shut down for holidays, and terminal procurement decreased. The phosphoric acid market is stagnant, and the industry is mainly wait-and-see. After the festival, the phosphoric acid market gradually recovered, the raw material yellow phosphorus was traded flat, the trend was weak, and the cost side support was poor. As of January 31, the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 8700-9100 yuan/ton, that in Yunnan is about 9200 yuan/ton, and that in Hubei is about 9100 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid is about 8350-9500 yuan/ton.

Market of raw phosphate rock. This month, the domestic phosphorus ore market remained stable at a high level. There is no significant fluctuation in the price of phosphate rock in the field, and the overall market is in high consolidation operation. As of January 31, the reference price of domestic phosphorus ore was 1056 yuan/ton.

Yellow phosphorus market. Yellow phosphorus prices were lowered in January. This month, the manufacturers had a lot of maintenance, and in the first half of the month, the preparation of the yellow phosphorus market before the festival was basically completed. Many downstream and traders have started to take holidays. There are plans to shut down during the Spring Festival, and there is no purchase plan for yellow phosphorus in the short term. After the Spring Festival holiday in the second half of the month, the market has just recovered. It is prudent to take the goods and wait and see. It mainly supplies pre-holiday orders, but the new orders are limited. Up to now, the yellow phosphorus quotations in Guizhou and Sichuan are mostly in the range of 31000-32000 yuan/ton.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts of the Business Society believe that the raw material yellow phosphorus market was adjusted down this month, and the cost support was general. At present, the downstream should be cautious and wait and buy as needed. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will stagnate in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in the cost side.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, as of January 30, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products was 14875.00 yuan/ton. In January, the PMMA market was stable and the price remained unchanged. At present, the mainstream market price was 15000 yuan/ton. At present, the overall market supply and demand of PMMA was balanced.

In January, the domestic PMMA market as a whole operated smoothly, with limited price fluctuation. The mainstream price was 15000 yuan/ton. The operating rate was stable, and the supply and demand were balanced. The downstream just needed to purchase, and the manufacturer gave up the profit and took the order. The enterprise quoted: Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. 14800 yuan/ton.

Rubber and plastic index: The rubber and plastic index stood at 678 points on January 29, up 3 points from yesterday, down 36.04% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and up 28.41% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

PMMA analysts of Business Agency believe that PMMA is expected to run smoothly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price index of the domestic rare earth market is mainly stable, while the domestic rare earth market is weak and stable. The rare earth index was 673 points on January 15, down 33.17% from the peak of 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and up 148.34% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The price of neodymium oxide, metal neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide and metal praseodymium oxide in China is stable, and the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide and metal praseodymium neodymium rose slightly. As of the 16th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 877500 yuan/ton, up 0.29% this week; The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 720000 yuan/ton, up 0.35%; The price of neodymium oxide is 790000 yuan/ton, which is stable; The price of neodymium metal is 967500 yuan/ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable; The price of praseodymium metal is 935000 yuan/ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable; The price of praseodymium oxide was 705000 yuan/ton, and the price trend was stable this week.

The domestic light rare earth market inquiry list is cold, and the downstream magnetic material enterprises have basically completed the stock preparation before the festival, and have started to take holidays. In addition, the logistics has been suspended in succession, the demand of the downstream magnetic material enterprises is weakening, and the production enterprises are in general condition. Recently, the downstream purchasing sentiment has weakened, resulting in the scarcity of orders, and the domestic light rare earth market price is mainly stable.

The price of domestic heavy rare earth dysprosium series fell slightly, and the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.455 million yuan/ton as of the 16th, and the price fell by 1.80% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.45 million yuan/ton, down 1.41%; The price of dysprosium metal is 3.21 million yuan/ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable; The price of domestic terbium is mainly stable. The price of domestic terbium oxide is 13.9 million yuan/ton, and the price of metal terbium is 17.55 million yuan/ton. The price of heavy rare earth decreased slightly. The stock of raw materials of separation enterprises in the areas where rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places increased, the production enterprises started normally, the downstream procurement was scarce, and the market price declined slightly. However, Myanmar’s exports are limited, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the products in the domestic heavy rare earth market, and the price decline in the heavy rare earth market is limited.

According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in December 2022, China’s automobile production and sales were 2.383 million and 2.556 million, respectively, with a month-on-month decline of 0.3% in production and a month-on-month increase of 9.7% in sales, and a year-on-year decline of 18.2% and 8.4% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 795000 and 814000 respectively, up 51.8% year on year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased, the demand in the new energy field is still supported, and the domestic rare earth market price trend is stable.

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioners in the downstream of the rare earth industry are sustainable development. Recently, the downstream businesses have gradually taken a holiday. In the short term, the price of the rare earth market is mainly stable. In the long term, the demand for rare earth is still guaranteed, and the development of the rare earth industry is optimistic.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the Business Agency, the nickel price fell first and then rose this week. As of January 13, the spot nickel quotation was 219616 yuan/ton, down 1.56% from the beginning of the week and up 31.85% year on year.

Weekly rise and fall chart of nickel

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of the Business News Agency, the nickel price rose by 7 and fell by 5 in the past 12 weeks, and fell back after the recent strength of the nickel price.

Nickel industry chain

On the macro level, CPI rose 6.5% year-on-year in December 2022, which was in line with market expectations, and the increase was the smallest since October 2021; The month-on-month decline was 0.1%, the first month-on-month decline in two and a half years. In December 2022, the core CPI rose 5.7% year-on-year, the lowest level since December 2021. Federal Reserve Huck said it was time to adjust the rate increase to 25 basis points in the future.

In terms of supply and demand: short-term nickel plate resources at the supply side are still tight. Under the demand of alloy enterprises for pre-holiday stock, Jinchuan nickel premium is relatively strong, and the current market activity is generally low. But at present, the pure nickel import window is open. Since the opening of the pure nickel import window in early November, many import traders have difficulties in importing, and the import resources are mainly based on consumption of inventory. After the opening of the import window, the shortage of pure nickel is expected to improve in the short term. The production reduction of consumer-end steel mills is expected to increase in January, and the market has a strong atmosphere of waiting for holidays and weak demand.

To sum up, macroeconomic optimism drives metals. LME will take measures to restore confidence in the metal market. However, nickel fundamentals are poor. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate.

The price of acetic anhydride fell after the holiday

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell after the holiday. As of January 6, the price of acetic anhydride was 5350 yuan/ton, down 1.15% from 5412.50 yuan/ton on January 1. After the holiday, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased and the demand was weak, and the price of acetic anhydride fell.

The price of acetic acid fell after the holiday

As can be seen from the chart of acetic acid price trend of the business community, as of January 6, the price of acetic acid was 2912.50 yuan/ton, down 1.27% from the price of 2950 yuan/ton on January 1. Downstream demand is low, acetic acid enterprises are operating at a low level, and the industry’s trading volume is weak. After the festival, the price of acetic acid fluctuates and falls, the cost of acetic anhydride falls, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increases.

The price of methanol rose first and then fell after the holiday

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the business community, as of January 6, the methanol price was 2668.33 yuan/ton, down 1.11% from the methanol price of 2698.33 yuan/ton on January 1. After the holiday, the price of methanol rose first and then fell, the cost support of acetic anhydride weakened, the demand was weak, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride was great.

Future prospects

According to the acetic anhydride data analyst of the Business Agency, the methanol price and acetic acid price fluctuated and fell after the holiday, and the cost of acetic anhydride fell; The downstream demand for acetic anhydride remained weak, and the downward pressure on the price of acetic anhydride increased. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride fell and the demand remained weak, and the price of acetic anhydride fell in shock.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the Business Agency, the nickel price rose first and then fell this week. As of January 6, the spot nickel quotation was 216683.33 yuan/ton, down 8.24% from the beginning of the week and up 40.86% year on year.

Weekly rise and fall chart of nickel

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of the Business News Agency, the nickel price has risen by 8% and fallen by 4% in the past 12 weeks, and the nickel price has fallen sharply after the recent strength.

Nickel industry chain

On the macro level, the latest interest rate minutes of the Federal Reserve emphasized the determination to fight inflation, and intensified the market’s concern about the expectation of the US long-term recession.

Supply: At present, Qingshan has commissioned a new energy enterprise in Hubei to produce electrodeposited nickel products. The preliminary design capacity is 1500 tons per month, and part of the volume will be released in January. From the perspective of production, after the new production capacity is put into operation, the contribution to the marginal growth of domestic refined nickel production in 2023 may reach 18000 metal tons, and after the process is mature, it is also possible to expand the capacity. Qingshan’s monthly production capacity of 1500 tons of nickel electrowinning project products have been successfully produced. In January, some of the volume will be released, and the nickel price will be under pressure.

Demand: the growth of new energy demand slowed down, and the price of battery grade nickel sulfate continued to fall. The demand for nickel decreased due to the decline of stainless steel production scheduling.

To sum up, in the first quarter, it is expected that the pure nickel fundamentals will remain tight, and the production capacity of Qingshan 1500 tons/month electrowinning nickel project is expected to gradually release, and the short-term output volume may be limited, which is difficult to alleviate the contradiction between the current tight pure nickel and low inventory. At present, downstream demand is weakening, and nickel price is expected to be weak.

This week (December 30 to January 6), the market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese was slightly reduced. The spot market price in East China was 17350 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 17300 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 50 yuan/ton, down 0.29%.

In terms of manganese ore: the confidence of manganese ore market continued to rise this week, the ore price rose significantly, the overall price rose 1-2 yuan/ton, and the enthusiasm of inquiry for oxide ore was obvious, so we took the initiative to stock. Due to the mine accident in Gabon, the arrival and shipment were all affected. The market said that Gabon’s resources were scarce in the future, which led to the price of oxidized ore to continue to rise. Gabon’s 44-45 yuan/tonne, Australia’s 47-48 yuan/tonne, South Africa’s mines were also driven by the market atmosphere, and the price of semi-carbonic acid was increased by 36-36.5 yuan/tonne. South Africa’s low-grade high-speed railway resources were less, and the market carried out collective price adjustment. The price of the price was chaotic and went up to 34.5-35.5 yuan/tonne, and the deal was gradually followed up.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. From the above weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart, it can be seen that since March 2022, electrolytic manganese has continued to decline, the price of electrolytic manganese has continued to stabilize temporarily after a slight rise at the end of August, the price has recovered slightly since the end of September, the price has remained stable for a long time since October, fluctuated slightly in November, and decreased slightly after December.

The electrolytic manganese market continued to decline this week. The domestic mainstream price was 15500-15700 yuan/ton, down 100-200 yuan/ton from last week. The market was bearish and the trading volume was slightly cold. In terms of supply, the long-term operating rate of manganese is between 50% and 60%, and the supply is acceptable. The ex-factory price of domestic mainstream manufacturers is around 15600-15700 yuan/ton, and the manufacturers have a strong attitude towards price. Downstream demand is approaching the end of the year, and downstream winter storage is basically coming to an end. The market mentality is generally stable, and the steel bidding is generally in general performance. The price falls, affecting the market mentality. In general, the current electrolytic manganese market has maintained a weak operation as a whole. Under the influence of weak demand, it is expected to maintain a stable, medium and weak operation in the short term. The market is waiting for the guidance of steel bidding.

This week, the domestic silicon and manganese spot market performed generally, with the price rising and falling alternately, the futures fell in the middle of the week, the steel bidding pricing was delayed, and the market confidence was slightly insufficient. The mainstream price fell back to 7250-7300 yuan/ton. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average market price of silicon and manganese in Ningxia (the specification is FeMN68Si18) on January 6 was 7241 yuan/ton, down 0.46% compared with that before the festival.

From December 30, 2022 to January 6, 2023, the production price of coal tar in Shanxi was lowered. According to the monitoring of the business community, the average market price was 6155 yuan/ton last weekend and 5867.5 yuan/ton this weekend, down 4.67%.

On January 5, the coal tar (high temperature) commodity index was 202.33, down 9.91 points from yesterday, down 12.59% from the cycle’s highest point of 231.47 (2022-11-09), and up 329.12% from the lowest point of 47.15 on December 6, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The downstream deep processing industry has weakened as a whole, and has cracked down on the coal tar market. Recently, the coking enterprises have started to work slightly, the tar supply has improved slightly, and the tar bidding price has declined in the past two weeks.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the monthly coal tar K column chart above that since January 2022, the coal tar market has risen for six months, only slightly declined in May, and the price remained stable in February. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the coal tar market rose for 12 consecutive weeks. Only after a small price correction in one week, the price continued to rise, and fell in December.

In terms of the industrial chain, most commodity prices in the downstream deep processing industry fell this week, including coal tar pitch prices, industrial naphthalene, anthracene oil and other commodity prices. With the price of raw tar declining for several consecutive weeks, the profit of the deep processing industry has recovered, and the current operating rate is generally stable.

The coal tar market continued to decline broadly this week, with a decline range of about 150-300 yuan/ton this week. In some areas where the previous decline was not obvious, there was a lot of additional decline this week. The mainstream price in Shandong is 6100 yuan/ton, Hebei 5900-6000 yuan/ton, Henan 6050 yuan/ton, and Shanxi 5750-5900 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, coking enterprises continued to increase production this week, with slightly loose tar supply and weak overall mentality of coking enterprises. In terms of demand, the downstream deep processing industry fell collectively this week, with a stronger mentality of suppressing raw materials. Without downstream support, tar prices fell significantly. On the whole, negative factors in the tar market are dominant at present. Under the expectation of loose supply, tar prices in the future will remain weak.

According to the monitoring of the business community, in December, the domestic adipic acid market bottomed out and rebounded, mainly because of the good support from the supply side. At the end of the month, the market price range of adipic acid was 9800-10000 yuan/ton. Adipic acid increased by 3.73% throughout the month.

Adipic acid industry chain

Adipic acid industry chain showed a weak performance this month, with the exception of adipic acid, upstream and downstream were mainly down. Pure benzene is weak, with a small range of rise and fall. The performance of downstream PA66 is relatively weak, with a significant decline of -6.45%. The terminal demand is weak, and the industrial chain is resonant.

Supply side

From the perspective of market supply, the rebound of adipic acid in this month was mainly driven by tight supply. The monthly operating rate of enterprises remained low, about 50%. In the month, Tianli Hi Tech reduced the load of its devices, Zhonghao added a set of devices to the maintenance camp, and in addition, a large number of maintenance devices had not been returned to work in the early stage, the operating rate was lower than that in November, the enterprise’s inventory was low, and the supply was slightly tight. The supplier set the price to push the market, and the collection price and listing price of large factories were generally increased by 500 yuan/ton.

Cost side

On the cost side, crude oil maintained a range shock trend, while pure benzene showed a weak trend, with weak support on the cost side. This month, the domestic supply of pure benzene is abundant, the import is also high, and the port inventory is high. Downstream demand is relatively low, procurement is still sluggish, and the pattern of market oversupply has not changed. At the end of the month, the price of East China pure benzene was between 6400-6500 yuan/ton.

Demand side

The downstream demand of adipic acid is weak, and the rigid demand is the main demand. Take the downstream PA66 as an example. According to the monitoring of the business community, the downstream PA66 declined significantly in December, at -6.45%. In terms of supply, the operating rate of PA66 remained around 65%, and the market supply was abundant. Weak demand is hard to change. This month, the terminal enterprises just need to follow up on the purchase of goods, and the enthusiasm for downstream goods preparation is not high. The psychological impact of buying up but not buying down, and the treatment of price reduction is also relatively cautious, and the merchants’ shipment is not smooth. As of the end of the month, the market price of PA66 was 21800 yuan/ton.

Future outlook

The business community believes that, in the short term, the cost may be supported by the strong operation of crude oil or the promotion of pure benzene out of the decline in the later period under the geopolitical tension. The positive supply side will gradually highlight, the supply will continue to be tight, the inventory will be low, and the manufacturer may continue to push the price, so the adipic acid market still has room for rebound. However, the demand side or the constraint factor is relatively slow to follow up at present. Under the supply and demand game situation, adipic acid or recent shocks are mainly strong.